Economic Growth
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X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-11-18 16:10
Colombia’s economy beat all forecasts with the fastest growth since the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, boosting the chances that the central bank may need to start raising interest rates. https://t.co/jGBL4YS1hZ ...
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-11-18 14:22
Africa needs to mobilize more domestic savings to invest in economic growth to meet the continent’s urgent need for jobs, Ecobank CEO Jeremy Awori says at the Bloomberg Africa Business Summit https://t.co/SOjY8RMgbj ...
We will see a lot more economic growth coming, Art Laffer predicts
Youtube· 2025-11-18 11:02
Economic Growth and Tax Cuts - Wages are rising faster than prices, with real income increasing and grocery prices only rising by 2.1% [2][17] - Economic growth is expected to continue, with potential growth rates reaching 4% to 5% in the near future, positively impacting real wages and the economy [5][14] - The tax cuts enacted in July are anticipated to show significant refunds in the first quarter of the following year, contributing to economic strength [9][27] Inflation and Affordability - The current inflation rate, particularly in grocery prices, is being misrepresented by the media, as prices are barely rising [7][8] - The affordability crisis is being challenged by the increase in real income, which has risen by $1,200 since Trump took office [17][18] - Housing prices are expected to decrease as new housing units come online, which will positively affect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [10][12] Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's current policies are criticized for not aligning with economic growth, leading to higher inflation instead of lower prices [4][23] - There is a call for the Federal Reserve to reduce its balance sheet to allow for lower interest rates, which would benefit small and medium-sized businesses [20][21] - Ethical concerns regarding insider trading among Federal Reserve officials have been raised, indicating a need for better compliance and management within the institution [29][34]
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-11-18 10:42
The credit ratings of most African nations are much lower than similar sovereigns elsewhere in the world, costing them billions of dollars and denting vital economic growth, according to top bankers https://t.co/y2QWiZTWnP ...
中国观察:供给充足,需求不足-Asia Views_ Supply proficient, demand deficient
2025-11-18 09:41
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese economy** and its export growth, alongside insights into the economic conditions in **South Korea**, **Taiwan**, **Japan**, **Australia**, **New Zealand**, **Vietnam**, **Malaysia**, **Indonesia**, **Philippines**, **Thailand**, and **India** [1][2][17][26][30]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **China's Export Growth**: - China's export growth forecast has been upgraded due to robust export momentum, with a projected growth rate of over 5% per year, outpacing global growth [1][2]. - The manufacturing sector remains competitive, particularly in emerging sectors like batteries and electric vehicles [1]. 2. **Economic Growth Projections**: - China's GDP growth is expected to slow gradually from 5% this year to 4.5% by 2028, with a current account surplus of 3.9% of GDP in Q3 [2]. - The country is on track to achieve the largest trade surplus globally in decades, posing challenges for other manufactured goods exporters [2]. 3. **Policy and Trade Relations**: - The next Five-Year Plan emphasizes manufacturing and self-reliance, aiming to reduce imports while increasing exports [1]. - A tentative trade truce with the US has provided leverage for China, particularly regarding rare earth minerals [1]. 4. **Challenges in Domestic Demand**: - China's domestic demand is facing challenges, particularly in property and non-property investments, which have slowed significantly [12]. - The central government has less incentive to stimulate the economy aggressively in the short term due to near-target GDP growth figures [14]. 5. **Regional Economic Conditions**: - **South Korea**: Faces slow consumption growth due to demographic changes and household debt, with a need for technological advancement in exports [17]. - **Taiwan**: Exports have surged by 50% year-on-year, but investment growth remains low, indicating a narrow base of economic performance [17]. - **Japan**: Sluggish growth in Q3, with easing tariff uncertainties following a visit from US President Trump [21]. - **Australia and New Zealand**: Australia’s inflation has prompted a halt in rate cuts, while New Zealand is expected to see a growth reacceleration [22]. - **Vietnam and Malaysia**: Both countries reported strong GDP growth, driven by industrial activity and exports [26]. Other Important Insights - The report highlights the divergence in economic performance within the ASEAN region, with Vietnam and Malaysia leading in growth while Indonesia and the Philippines face challenges [26]. - The report suggests that the RMB is expected to appreciate against the USD, but this will not significantly impact China's export competitiveness [2]. - The manufacturing PMI in Taiwan and Korea indicates a narrow performance gap, with Taiwan at 47.7 and Korea at 49.4, reflecting broader economic challenges [17]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape in China and its regional counterparts.
India’s Q2 growth gets GST & rural push as SBI predicts a near 7.5% print
The Economic Times· 2025-11-18 07:09
The report stated, “Based on the estimated model, we obtain a nowcast of real GDP growth of ~7.5% in Q2FY26 with possibility of an upside surprise.” It added that GST rationalisation helped trigger a strong festive mood, which “decisively showcased triumph of hope over hype.”According to the report, indicators across agriculture, industry and services have shown clear acceleration. The share of leading indicators that reflect growth in consumption and demand rose to 83% in the second quarter, up from 70% i ...
X @The Economist
The Economist· 2025-11-18 02:00
How fast should India grow? Narendra Modi, the prime minister, wants it to gain “rich-country” status by 2047. Two places in particular are held up as exemplars https://t.co/IlWOoWt3t9Illustration: Klawe Rzeczy https://t.co/JIFdXdN0Se ...
X @The Economist
The Economist· 2025-11-17 18:40
Because tariffs hurt, rather than help, economic growth, the Federal Reserve might have to put up with a softer-than-ideal labour market to keep a lid on prices in 2026 https://t.co/mGjRETqTjQ ...
Banking rules hold Europe back, says Santander’s Botín#shorts #banks #santander #banking
Bloomberg Television· 2025-11-17 15:56
what is our ambition for growth. Uh Mario Draghi gave us a diagnosis. How much have we executed.Not more than 10% in one year. So we have to have a much greater ambition on delivering on those recommendations. Um I've said it publicly, you know, if taxes every euro we make in Europe, 58 cents go to the government.Every dollar we make in the United States, 42. That's not a small number, but it's, you know, significantly lower. So, excess regulation, excess taxation actually is a tax on the economy and growth ...
Take the Zacks Approach to Beat the Markets: Macy's, United Natural Foods & Monster Beverage in Focus
ZACKS· 2025-11-17 14:42
Market Performance - Major U.S. indexes showed mixed performance last week, with the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average declining by 2.7%, 1.4%, and 0.5% respectively [1] - Investors are shifting focus from high-valuation technology and AI stocks to more defensive sectors due to market volatility [1] Federal Reserve and Economic Data - The end of a 43-day government standoff has reduced political risks, but delays in key economic data releases have created uncertainty for the Federal Reserve and investors [2] - The Fed is balancing economic growth and inflation, with inflation remaining above the 2% target and a resilient labor market casting doubt on December rate cut expectations [2] Zacks Research Performance - Zacks Research has provided guidance that led to significant stock performance, with Macy's shares increasing by 14.9% since its upgrade to Zacks Rank 1 on September 18, outperforming the S&P 500's 2.2% increase [3][4] - Fresnillo plc also saw a 7.2% return since its upgrade to Zacks Rank 1 on September 19, compared to the S&P 500's 1.8% increase [4] Zacks Model Portfolio Returns - A hypothetical portfolio of Zacks Rank 1 stocks returned +8.64% in 2025 through September 1, outperforming the S&P 500's +7.60% [4] - The Zacks Model Portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 index by over 12 percentage points since 1988, with an annualized average return of +23.8% compared to +11.3% for the S&P 500 [5] Specific Stock Performances - United Natural Foods, Inc. (UNFI) shares increased by 32.4% after its Zacks Recommendation was upgraded to Outperform [7] - Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) gained 35.9% over the past 12 weeks, while CACI International Inc. (CACI) returned 20.1% during the same period [10] Earnings Certain Admiral Portfolio (ECAP) - The ECAP returned -1.30% in Q3 2025, underperforming the S&P 500's +8.1% gain, and +2.72% year-to-date compared to the S&P 500's +14.84% [15] - The portfolio aims to minimize capital loss by holding shares of companies with a proven track record of earnings stability [16] Earnings Certain Dividend Portfolio (ECDP) - Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) returned 10.9% over the past 12 weeks, while UnitedHealth Group (UNH) increased by 5.9% [18] - The ECDP returned -0.01% in Q3 2025, underperforming the S&P 500's +8.1% gain [20] Top 10 Stock Portfolio - MasTec, Inc. (MTZ) has jumped 41.2% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500's 14.7% increase [22] - The Top 10 portfolio has produced a cumulative return of +2,553.1% since 2012, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +545.2% [24]