Bring in show music, please. Hi, I'm CNBC producer Katie Kramer. Today on Squawk Pod, what a week. The US Central Bank made its first interest rate cut all year. We have FOMC voting member and head of the Minneapolis Fed, Neil Kashkari, on the health of the US economy. We're not okay with 3% inflation. I'm confident that we are going to get inflation back down to 2%. But these tariffs have pushed inflation back up. President Trump and China's President Xi set to speak today about a possible deal to keep Tik ...

While innovative sectors such as artificial intelligence consistently grab headlines, few industries have been as holistically profitable as gold. Heading into the tail end of summer, the yellow metal was already a star asset, trading around $3,400. However, in the trailing month, the precious metal swung up about 10%, demonstrating that it still potentially has legs left.Subsequently, savvy investors are increasingly tuning into the mining ecosystem. One factor that makes miners so intriguing to long-side ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are influenced by expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with current trading levels reflecting a consolidation phase after a significant rally earlier this month [2][4][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold is currently trading approximately $37 per ounce below its all-time high, which was reached following a 25 basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2]. - The market is experiencing a consolidation phase, indicating that it is finding a new footing after a recent price surge, with buying flows still present but with reduced urgency [4]. - Traders are anticipating nearly two additional rate cuts this year, which has been a major factor in gold's 39% price increase in 2023 [5]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Lower interest rates typically benefit gold, as it does not yield interest, and the recent comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell have strengthened the dollar, making gold more expensive in other currencies [3][5]. - Geopolitical tensions and the impact of tariffs imposed by the U.S. administration have increased haven demand for gold, alongside rising central bank purchases and holdings in exchange-traded funds [5]. - The ongoing legal issues surrounding Fed Governor Lisa Cook and the administration's influence on the Fed may further impact market sentiment and gold prices [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that China's monetary policy is shifting towards reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts instead of aggressive interest rate reductions, aiming to protect bank interest margins and maintain indirect financing channels while allowing for gradual interest rate decreases and innovative structural tools to stabilize finance and promote transformation [2] Group 2 - Since 2016, China has adjusted the RRR 23 times, all downward, with the RRR for large deposit-taking financial institutions decreasing from 17.5% to 9.0%, a total drop of 8.5 percentage points [3] - The policy interest rates have only been adjusted 14 times since 2016, indicating a preference for RRR cuts over significant interest rate reductions [3][4] - The net interest margin for commercial banks has decreased to 1.42%, the lowest in history, highlighting the importance of maintaining this margin for the stability of the banking sector [4] Group 3 - RRR cuts will increase the funds available for commercial banks, enabling better support for proactive fiscal policies, as approximately 68% of national debt and 75% of local government debt are held by commercial banks [5] - The effectiveness of monetary policy is largely dependent on the cooperation of commercial banks and the financial system, especially given the low excess reserve ratio in China [5] Group 4 - There is still room for interest rate cuts in China, but the low elasticity of consumption and investment to interest rates limits the effectiveness of sustained large cuts [6] - The decrease in interest rates has led to a reduction in household deposits, with a drop of 1.11 trillion yuan in July, indicating a significant relationship between declining interest rates and reduced household savings [6][7] - Structural monetary policy tools have been increasingly important, with innovations supporting weak economic sectors and key areas such as technology innovation and green development [7]

A key measure of US corporate-bond valuations reached the most expensive level in nearly three decades as investors raced to lock in still-elevated yields following the Fed's first interest rate cut since 2024 https://t.co/a3bqilEmtv ...

Market Trends - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut is expected to be short-lived, with a maximum total cut of 100 basis points anticipated [2][5] - The current round of monetary easing is not seen as a significant game-changer for investors [2] Housing Market - Lowering interest rates may stimulate some activity in the housing market, but it is unlikely to fully unlock the previously frozen market [3] AI Industry - The rise of AI is viewed as the most significant market development, driving stock movement and the broader economy [3][4] - AI hardware is highlighted as a crucial area of focus, with interest in power sources for AI firms, particularly nuclear energy [4][5]

Group 1 - The dollar index rose by +0.50% due to positive comments from Fed Chair Powell regarding inflation and expectations of limited interest rate cuts by the Fed [1] - US weekly initial unemployment claims fell by -33,000 to 231,000, indicating a stronger labor market than the expected 240,000 [3] - The September Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey increased by +23.5 to an 8-month high of 23.2, surpassing expectations of 1.7 [3] Group 2 - Concerns over Fed independence may lead foreign investors to sell dollar assets, particularly in light of President Trump's attempts to fire Fed Governor Cook [2] - The euro fell by -0.20% due to a stronger dollar and fiscal concerns, as the German government plans to borrow about 20% more than originally planned in Q4 [4] - Germany's finance agency plans to raise 90.5 billion euros ($107 billion) in Q4, which is 15 billion euros more than previously projected [5] Group 3 - The markets are pricing in a 93% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on October 28-29 [4] - Swaps indicate a 2% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the October 30 policy meeting [6] - The USD/JPY rose by +0.59% as the yen fell to a 1-week low due to a stronger dollar and reduced safe-haven demand following a rally in the Nikkei Stock Index [6]

Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY00) increased by +0.57% due to positive comments from Fed Chair Powell regarding inflation and interest rates [1] - US weekly initial unemployment claims fell by -33,000 to 231,000, indicating a stronger labor market than the expected 240,000 [3] - The September Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey rose by +23.5 to an 8-month high of 23.2, surpassing expectations of 1.7 [3] Group 2 - Concerns over Fed independence may lead foreign investors to sell dollar assets, particularly in light of President Trump's actions against Fed Governor Cook [2] - The euro (EUR/USD) decreased by -0.30% due to a stronger dollar and fiscal concerns from the German government planning to borrow about 20% more than originally intended in Q4 [4] - Germany's finance agency plans to raise 90.5 billion euros ($107 billion) in Q4, which is 15 billion euros more than previously projected [5]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 index increased by 0.5% and is on track to surpass its previous record close from September 15 [1] - The Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.8%, also aiming for a record close [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 54 points, reflecting a 0.1% increase [1] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve recently lowered interest rates by a quarter of a point [2] - The Fed has forecasted two additional rate cuts by December and a third cut anticipated in 2026 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut its key borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point is viewed positively by the White House, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett mentioned that the administration and new Fed Governor Stephen Miran advocated for a larger reduction, specifically a half-point cut, but the Federal Open Market Committee voted 11 to 1 against it [2]. - Hassett expressed that a 25 basis point cut was a broad consensus and a good initial step towards lower rates, despite Miran's preference for a more aggressive approach [3]. - President Trump has previously criticized the Fed and suggested that the benchmark federal funds rate should be 3 percentage points lower than current levels, which is not aligned with the FOMC's future policy projections [4]. Group 2: Economic Context - Despite strong economic growth above 3% in the third quarter, which typically would not support lower interest rates, Trump argues that cuts are necessary to aid the struggling U.S. housing market and manage financing costs for the nation's $37 trillion debt [5]. - Hassett emphasized the importance of assessing economic variables and making incremental reductions, suggesting that the Fed's cautious approach is appropriate given the current economic conditions [6]. - The Fed's decision reflects a balance between various economic models and opinions, with Hassett describing it as a prudent call in light of decelerating inflation that remains above the target [7].