I'm here because if we're talking about this, you might as well tell us what he said. I'm going to tell you what he said. Exactly.Really interesting comments. By the way, um first on what he says about policy and then the why on the policy. He sees a possible first cut in September.He maintains his ALEC for two cuts this year, but he's adjustable on that. He says the tariff impact could be delayed or it could be less than expected and provides interesting reasons why both could be true. First, he says compa ...

Market Outlook - The market is on pace to open at records, with a generally bullish outlook on stocks [1] - Diversification is key, with a preference for owning growthier value and "garbier" growth stocks, focusing on dividend growers rather than just payers [2] - The US market is favored, with an overweight position, but exposure to developed international and emerging markets is maintained [2] - Equities are viewed favorably, with a suggestion to overweight equities and have some exposure to fixed income for traditional diversification [3] Sector Focus - Consumer discretionary is a sector of interest, highlighted by Nike's earnings [4] - Despite Nike beating low earnings expectations, issues like a billion-dollar tariff expense and supply chain problems are flagged, with sales expected to be lower [5] - The American consumer is seen as remarkably resilient due to strong job market, supporting the consumer discretionary sector [6] Monetary Policy & Risk - Concerns about a "shadow Fed president" are considered less significant, as diverse opinions already exist within the Federal Reserve [7] - The Federal Reserve's independence is crucial, and potential commentary from other channels should be viewed in light of Jerome Powell's stance [8] - Expectation of rate cuts, potentially starting in September and with another 100 basis points (1%) removed by the end of the year from the monetary policy elevation since March 2022 [8][9]

Economic Data & Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve (Fed) acknowledges a slight degradation in the scope of economic surveys but expresses concern about the direction of travel regarding the accuracy and reliability of US economic measurement [4] - The Fed emphasizes the importance of accurate economic data for itself, Congress, and businesses to understand the state of the economy, including growth levels [4][5][6] - The Fed notes that current interest rates are at higher levels, providing significantly more room for cuts compared to periods of very low interest rates [15] Inflation & Tariffs - Retailers anticipate tariff-related inflation to become more apparent in future data, as current sales reflect inventory from previous months [8][9] - There is uncertainty regarding how much of the tariff impact will be passed on to consumers; the effect could be lower or higher than expected [10] - Companies may increase prices on non-tariffed goods to compensate for losses incurred due to tariffs on price-elastic goods [11][12] - The Fed acknowledges the possibility of companies increasing prices on necessities, even if not subject to tariffs, to offset losses from tariffed goods, as seen in past tariff episodes [12][13] Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) - Congress is considering a proposal to cut $56 million from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), raising concerns about the agency's ability to collect accurate data and provide reliable indicators [3]

The Federal Reserve remains squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. Despite elevated uncertainty, the economy is in a solid position. The unemployment rate remains low and the labor market is at or near maximum employment.Inflation has come down a great deal but has been running somewhat above our 2% longer run objective. We are attentive to the risks on both sides of our dual mandate. I will review the current econ ...

Congressman, welcome back to the program, sir. Always good to hear from you. I'm going to start with a slightly provocative question.I'm paraphrasing here. Do you plan to work for this very term hotheaded person a little bit later this morning. Well, Jonathan, it's great to be with you.We look forward to having Chair Powell before the committee this morning. And I think he'll face questions on his outlook for inflation and therefore what his views are about rate cuts coming forward. I think that's the impor ...

ab 17 June 2025 Global Research Global Economics & Strategy Global Economic and Market Outlook 2025-26 (select slides) Economics Global Arend Kapteyn Economist arend.kapteyn@ubs.com +44-20-7567 0531 This report has been prepared by UBS AG London Branch. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on page 46. Tariff uncertainty is driving the outlook The Court of International Trade has halted 75% of Trump's tariffs (those ...

18 June 2025 | 8:32PM EDT US Daily: June FOMC Recap: Taking Higher Tariffs on Board, Cautiously (Mericle) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis n FOMC participants raised their inflation forecasts and lowered their GDP growth fore ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Viewpoints - Concerns over supply shortages have led to a surge in oil prices, but the impact on Asia is expected to be manageable due to lower oil burdens and moderate inflation [1][9] - If oil prices remain above $85 per barrel and the dollar continues to strengthen, it may delay interest rate cuts in the region [1][9] - Countries like Thailand, South Korea, and India face greater growth downside risks due to larger oil and gas trade deficits [3][9] Summary by Sections Oil Price Impact - The report estimates that a $10 increase in oil prices could raise Asia's CPI and current account balance by 40 basis points [8][36] - Asia's oil burden is currently below its long-term average, with projections indicating it could drop to 2.8% of GDP if oil prices average $75 per barrel [14][15] Trade Balance - Asia is the most oil-import dependent region, with oil accounting for 25% of its energy needs, and 80% of oil demand met through imports [10][12] - As of April 2025, Asia's oil and gas trade balance was -2.4% of GDP, compared to -1.7% for the Euro Area and 0.04% for the US [10][13] Macroeconomic Stability - Current macroeconomic indicators in Asia show good stability regarding inflation and current account balances [22] - Inflation is projected to rise slightly with oil price increases, but most economies are within central banks' comfort zones [22][36] Central Bank Policies - The report discusses how rising oil prices may influence monetary policy across different countries, with varying degrees of sensitivity to inflation and growth risks [47][48] - Countries like Australia and India may maintain a dovish stance despite rising oil prices, while the Philippines faces the highest risk due to its significant oil price exposure [49][52]

Economic Outlook - The economy is growing, with unemployment at 42% [3] - The economy is growing at an estimated rate of 15% to 2% [3] - Sentiment has increased from very low levels, but remains depressed [3][4] - The current monetary policy allows for timely responses to economic changes, with careful monitoring of data [7] Inflation & Tariffs - Inflation has cooled to roughly 2% despite tariffs [1] - There are concerns that tariffs could lead to demand destruction and slower growth, potentially keeping inflation low [7] - The likelihood of lower inflation due to tariffs is uncertain, requiring several months of cool inflation data to confirm [7] Housing Market - The housing market faces both short-term and long-term challenges, including a housing shortage and high rates [4] - Restoring price stability and maintaining a strong labor market are seen as the best approaches to support the housing market [5] Job Market - Overall labor force participation, wages, and job creation are at healthy levels [5] - There may be a very slow, continued cooling in the job market, but it is not currently troubling [6] Monetary Policy & Rate Paths - Rate paths are data-dependent and subject to high uncertainty [9][10] - Rate paths involving cuts suggest an expectation that cuts will become appropriate [9]

last year a surprise rate hike from the Bank of Japan nuked financial markets the world over and sent Bitcoin plunging 30% but if you thought that was bad Japan's monetary wos might be about to spill over again for an act two that could be much worse so stay tuned to find out why the market for Japanese government bonds could end up being the global fiat ponzies canary in the coal mine my name is Nick and you're watching the coin bureau when the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate from 0.1% to 0.25% 25% la ...