Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to make a monetary policy decision in the upcoming October meeting without the benefit of recent official economic data, except for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report [1] Group 1 - The decision-making process for the Fed will be influenced primarily by the CPI inflation report due to the lack of other recent economic data [1]

So for more, let's bring in Barry Napp. He's director of research at Iron Science Macroeconomics. Uh Barry, love to get your read on the CPI number.Of course, one of the few data prints that we've been able to get, albeit, you know, delayed and guess sounds like the government had to pull some extra strings to get it to us, but uh 3% initially earlier on the show, we had Krishna Guha saying that's pretty benign, at least from a market perspective. the two um issues that I haven't heard discussed um over all ...

Market Overview - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September is set to be released at 8:30 AM Eastern, which is expected to significantly influence monetary policy expectations and could lead to market volatility if it deviates from forecasts [1] - Updated readings on Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs for October will be released at 9:45 AM Eastern, providing insights into economic momentum following the Federal Reserve's policy stance [2] SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) - SPY opens at 673.75, with potential upward movement towards 675.00, 676.20, and possibly 677.40 if bullish momentum continues [4] - If SPY falls below 673.75, it may decline to 672.45, with further downside risks reaching 671.15 and 669.95 [5] Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ) - QQQ starts at 613.75, with upward targets at 614.90, 616.05, and 617.20 if bullish sentiment prevails [6] - A drop below 613.75 could lead to declines towards 612.50 and 611.30, with further weakness potentially reaching 610.10 [7] Apple Inc. (AAPL) - AAPL opens at 260.50, with potential upward movement towards 261.45, 262.40, and 263.35 if the stock holds above its recent higher base [8] - If AAPL slips below 260.50, it may decline to 259.55, with further downside risks reaching 258.60 and 257.65 [9] Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) - MSFT begins at 521.75, with upward targets at 522.95, 524.20, and 525.40 if bullish momentum continues [10] - A break below 521.75 could lead to declines towards 520.55 and 519.35, with heavier downside risks reaching 518.10 [11] NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) - NVDA opens at 183.25, with potential upward movement towards 184.30, 185.35, and 186.40 if accumulation continues [12] - If NVDA loses 183.25, it may decline to 182.20, with further downside risks reaching 181.15 and 180.10 [13] Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) - GOOGL starts at 256.25, with upward targets at 257.20, 258.15, and 259.10 if the stock maintains its positive tone [14] - A failure to hold above 256.25 could lead to declines towards 255.25 and 254.20, with deeper selling risks reaching 253.15 [15] Meta Platforms Inc (META) - META opens at 737.50, with potential upward movement towards 739.70, 741.85, and 744.00 if bullish sentiment remains strong [16] - If META falls below 737.50, it may decline to 735.35, with further downside risks reaching 733.20 and 731.10 [17] Tesla Inc. (TSLA) - TSLA begins at 446.25, with upward targets at 447.85, 449.45, and 451.00 if buyers build a firmer base [18] - A drop below 446.25 could lead to declines towards 444.65 and 443.05, with heavier downside risks reaching 441.50 [19]

Inflation & Interest Rate - Headline inflation estimate is 31%, highest since February [1] - The market has largely priced in an interest rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting [2] - The key focus is whether tariffs are being passed on to higher goods prices, and what happens with services inflation [2][3] - There's a divide among Fed officials regarding concerns about the labor market versus the stickiness of inflation [5][6] - The Fed's guidance on future rates is expected to be limited due to a lack of comprehensive data [9] - A December rate cut is anticipated, especially if the government reopens and data becomes available [14][15] Economic Outlook - Workforce reductions are occurring across different parts of the economy [4] - AI investments are significantly powering the market, with the Atlanta Fed GDP tracker indicating almost 4% growth for the quarter [10] - The economy may be bifurcated, with growth driven by a few sectors and higher-income consumers, making it prone to shocks [11][12][13] - The labor market is expected to weaken, potentially driving more rate cuts into Q1 of the following year [15]

Market Overview - The upcoming September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is highly anticipated, with its release scheduled for Friday at 8:30 AM ET, amidst a government shutdown that complicates economic data interpretation and Federal Reserve policy implications [1][2] - The government shutdown has delayed the CPI report from its original October 15 date, making it the only major official economic release during this period [2] Inflation Expectations - Economists predict a modest increase in inflation pressures for September, primarily due to ongoing tariff impacts on goods prices, although this may be partially offset by a decrease in shelter costs such as rents [3] - The consensus forecast anticipates a 0.4% month-over-month rise in headline inflation, matching August's increase, with a year-over-year CPI expected to rise to 3.1% from 2.9% [4] Federal Reserve Implications - If the CPI exceeds 3.1%, it could lead the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance or delay rate cuts, while a softer CPI could support a dovish approach [5] - The Federal Reserve's next policy meeting is set for October 28-29, just after the CPI release, with markets expecting a near-certainty of a 25-basis point rate cut, reducing the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00% [5] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 remains near record highs but is vulnerable to surprises in the CPI report, which could trigger volatility in equities, particularly in rate-sensitive sectors like technology and growth stocks [8][9] - A strong CPI report could lead to a sell-off in these sectors, while a weaker or in-line report might allow risk assets to extend gains, especially given concerns about the labor market and global growth [9] Strategic Considerations - Companies and sectors that can adapt to varying inflation scenarios while maintaining defensive positioning are likely to be favored in the current uncertain political environment [10] - Investors may consider reducing position sizes or hedging exposures ahead of the CPI release due to the potential for market volatility [11]

Core Insights - Asia's resilience to U.S. tariffs may be challenged by a stronger dollar and rising interest rates, which could tighten financial conditions [1][3] - The IMF projects Asia's economy to grow by 4.5% in 2025, slightly down from 4.6% in the previous year, but an increase from earlier estimates due to strong exports [4] Financial Conditions - Continued cuts in U.S. interest rates could lead to a decline in the dollar, allowing Asian central banks to ease monetary policy without fearing capital outflows [2] - Current low interest rates and declining long-term yields have enabled Asian governments and companies to borrow cheaply, helping them cope with the impact of higher U.S. tariffs [2] Risks and Challenges - Rising interest rates, particularly long-term rates, could significantly impact Asia, where debt servicing costs relative to revenue are already high [3] - The IMF warns that risks are tilted to the downside, projecting growth to slow to 4.1% in 2026 [4] Inflation Dynamics - Inflation in Asia has remained modest compared to other regions, attributed to the ability of Asian central banks to anchor inflation expectations and maintain independence from government interference [5] - The importance of central bank independence is emphasized for achieving price stability, while also being accountable to the public [6]

Pretty decent reaction on #Bitcoin.Ultimately, it's still chop until we're getting macroeconomic data (CPI) and the FED meeting.Bitcoin has been going sideways around $100-120K for nearly six months already, and that means that a big volatile move is on the horizon.When?I don't know.Not going to predict when it will occur, but there is a bias and thesis to be created out of the FOMC meetings, rate cuts, adjusted monetary policy and better business cycle.That's literally starting up later this quarter, and f ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin has transformed from being worthless to a global asset with a market cap of $2.2 trillion, attracting significant attention from business leaders, politicians, and central bankers [1] - Over the past year, Bitcoin has increased by 65%, indicating growing investor interest [1] Group 1: Catalysts and Market Dynamics - Positive catalysts for Bitcoin include a more accommodating regulatory environment and increased capital inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs [3] - The emergence of Bitcoin treasury companies, such as Strategy, has provided new avenues for larger capital pools to access Bitcoin [4] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly potential interest rate cuts, will significantly influence Bitcoin and other risk assets in the coming year [5] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The M2 money supply of the four largest economies has grown by 7% over the past year, contributing to increased liquidity in the financial system and supporting Bitcoin's price [6] - The liquidity influx from the Federal Reserve's actions is expected to benefit Bitcoin directly [8] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - A severe recession could lead to a loss of investor confidence, prompting a shift from Bitcoin to safer cash-like instruments [7] - The global economy may still be adjusting to the impacts of trade policies, which could affect Bitcoin's performance by next October [7]

Market Overview - U.S. stocks closed positively, with all three major indexes in the green, driven by strong earnings and positive economic data [2][3] - The S&P 500 gained approximately 0.9%, reflecting confidence in the economy despite global inflation and geopolitical risks [3][4] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose around 0.8%, supported by strong financial and industrial sectors [4][10] - The Nasdaq Composite outperformed with a 1.2% increase, led by growth stocks in technology [5][9] Sector Performance - The S&P 500's rally was broad-based, with significant gains in technology, consumer discretionary, and industrial sectors, while defensive sectors like utilities lagged [3][8] - The Nasdaq's growth was driven by strong performances in semiconductors, software, and e-commerce [5][9] - The Dow's increase was buoyed by higher-than-expected profits from major banks and resilience in the manufacturing sector [4][10] Investor Sentiment - Investor optimism was fueled by positive earnings reports and strong economic indicators, particularly in manufacturing and consumer spending [3][6] - Despite the positive market mood, analysts noted potential risks such as a U.S. government shutdown and rising inflation that could impact sentiment [6] - The upcoming earnings season is expected to play a crucial role in market movements, with significant reports from tech, consumer goods, and healthcare sectors [7]

Core Viewpoint - The election of hardline conservative Sanae Takaichi as Japan's prime minister has led to a decline in the yen, with traders speculating on potential changes in interest rate outlook and increased fiscal spending [1][2]. Currency Market Impact - The yen fell 0.76% to 151.895 per dollar, marking its lowest level since October 14, and experienced its largest single-day decline in two weeks [2]. - The yen also faced challenges against the euro and sterling, indicating broader currency market pressures [2]. Government Appointments and Economic Policy - Takaichi plans to appoint Satsuki Katayama as finance minister, who has previously expressed a preference for a stronger yen, potentially influencing market perceptions regarding yen depreciation [3]. - Analysts suggest that inflation and household purchasing power will be critical issues for the new government, which may lead to a reluctance to support further yen depreciation [4]. Monetary Policy Considerations - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) faces challenges in navigating monetary policy, as Takaichi's support for fiscal stimulus complicates the path for potential interest rate increases [4][5]. - There are indications that monetary tightening may be delayed until fiscal easing takes effect, creating a complex environment for the BOJ [5]. Broader Market Context - The dollar index rose to a six-day high, supported by the weaker yen, amidst a generally positive market sentiment following optimistic trade deal discussions between the U.S. and China [6][7]. - Concerns regarding U.S. dollar funding and its implications for euro zone banks were highlighted, reflecting the interconnectedness of global financial markets [7].