Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments released policies to expand service consumption, proposing five areas with 19 measures, including eight related to "high-quality service supply" [2] - The document emphasizes the launch of "Service Consumption Season" activities and support for high-quality consumption resources collaborating with well-known IPs [2] - It also mentions the expansion of pilot programs in telecommunications, healthcare, and education, as well as optimizing student holiday arrangements [2] Group 2 - U.S. President Trump announced plans to speak with Chinese leaders, highlighting the strategic importance of leader-level diplomacy in U.S.-China relations [3] - Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized innovation-driven and green development during his research trip in Gansu and Qinghai [3] - The People's Bank of China Governor pointed out the inherent instability of a single country's currency as a global public good and discussed the evolution of the international monetary system [3] Group 3 - The Ministry of Agriculture reported that China's grain production exceeded 1.4 trillion jin last year, an increase of 74 billion jin from 2020 [4] - The revenue of large-scale agricultural product processing enterprises reached approximately 18 trillion yuan [4] - The Ministry reiterated the prohibition of urban residents purchasing rural housing and land [4] Group 4 - The A-share market saw fluctuations with the three major indices closing higher, particularly in the robotics sector, while some sectors like rare earth and insurance stocks declined [5] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index slightly decreased, while the Hang Seng Technology Index rose [6] - Chery Automobile plans to launch an IPO aiming for a valuation of 140 billion HKD, potentially becoming the largest car company IPO in Hong Kong this year [6] Group 5 - The construction of the world's largest ±800 kV UHVDC transmission project has begun, with a total investment of approximately 53.2 billion yuan [9] - Guangdong Province introduced an action plan to empower the toy industry with AI, targeting a revenue of 100 billion yuan by 2027 [9] Group 6 - Cloudfin announced a placement of 191 million new shares to raise approximately 1.17 billion HKD for virtual asset trading services [10] - The Malta Financial Services Authority opposed proposals for increased EU regulatory powers over cryptocurrency companies [10] - Citibank released a report predicting Ethereum's price targets, indicating potential overvaluation due to ETF inflows [10] Group 7 - The U.S. Senate narrowly confirmed the nomination of Milan to the Federal Reserve Board, allowing him to participate in upcoming meetings [13] - The U.S. retail sales in August increased by 0.6%, marking the third consecutive month of exceeding expectations [16] - The Canadian CPI in August rose by 1.9%, below the expected 2% [16] Group 8 - The onshore RMB against the USD closed at 7.1163, appreciating by 65 basis points [22] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.73%, with most non-USD currencies appreciating [22]

Core Insights - Zhao Changpeng, the founder of Binance, has made a remarkable comeback after facing a $53.1 billion fine and a four-month imprisonment, showcasing his ability to adapt and seize opportunities in a changing political landscape [1][20][29] Group 1: Company Background and Growth - Binance was founded in 2017 by Zhao Changpeng, who quickly established the platform as a leader in the cryptocurrency space, achieving a net profit of $2 billion within six months of its launch [3][19] - The platform's rapid user growth, with 250,000 new users daily, exemplified the "China speed" in the tech industry [3] - Zhao's initial belief in the power of technology to disrupt traditional finance led him to operate Binance without a physical headquarters, challenging existing regulatory frameworks [5][7] Group 2: Regulatory Challenges and Strategic Decisions - The U.S. government took action against Binance in 2021, citing over a dozen charges, primarily focusing on anti-money laundering violations, which highlighted the clash between innovative technology and regulatory compliance [9][20] - Zhao's decision to accept the hefty fine was a strategic retreat, allowing him to maintain a foothold in the global market rather than face total destruction of wealth and freedom [23][29] - Following the fine, a shift in U.S. political attitudes towards cryptocurrency occurred, with the new administration aiming to position the U.S. as a global hub for digital currencies, benefiting Zhao's strategic positioning [25][29] Group 3: Personal Journey and Adaptation - Zhao's life story reflects a unique ability to identify and capitalize on opportunities, transitioning from a technical idealist to a political realist [11][31] - His experiences illustrate the importance of adapting to political realities, as he learned that technological advancements cannot exist independently of regulatory frameworks [33][38] - The transformation in Zhao's approach serves as a valuable lesson for other innovators, emphasizing the need for both technical prowess and political acumen in achieving success in a globalized economy [38][40]

Steve Witkoff在担任特朗普中东特使的同时，与特朗普家族共同创立了World Liberty Financial。根据投 资说明书，特朗普和Witkoff家族将持有该公司数字货币的大量份额并获得利润分成。 根据协议，美国出售的芯片将是市场上最先进的产品。作为回报，阿联酋承诺在十年内投资数千亿美元 促进美国工业增长，包括AI领域投资。 交易涉及的关键人物包括身兼特朗普中东特使的Steve Witkoff，以及担任政府AI和加密货币事务负责人 的David Sacks。 Sacks联合创立的Craft Ventures早期投资者包括Sheikh Tahnoon现在监管的阿布扎比投资局，以及同样寻 求AI芯片的沙特阿拉伯公共投资基金。至少到今年3月，Sacks仍投资于包括台积电在内的股票基金，该 公司正是英伟达芯片的制造商。 在阿联酋向特朗普家族核心代币公司World Liberty Financial注资20亿美元后，白宫批准了向阿联酋出售 数十万枚先进AI芯片的提案。 据媒体报道，今年5月，阿联酋酋长Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan旗下投资公司MGX购置了20亿 美 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup predicts Ethereum's year-end target price at $4,300, which is lower than the current spot price, based on a model considering fundamental value, capital inflow potential, and macroeconomic environment [1][15]. Group 1: Value Capture and L2 Challenges - The report highlights that Ethereum's value is closely tied to its network activity as a smart contract platform, unlike Bitcoin's "digital gold" positioning [1]. - Recent growth in Ethereum's ecosystem activity is primarily occurring on Layer 2 (L2) networks, raising concerns about how much value L2 can translate back to the Ethereum mainnet [3]. - Citigroup assumes a 30% value transmission rate from L2 activities to the Ethereum mainnet, indicating that even with this assumption, Ethereum's current price exceeds the valuation derived from combined Layer 1 (L1) and L2 activities [3]. Group 2: Fundamental Value and Price Risks - Citigroup's model suggests that Ethereum's current price is above what its network activity can support, likely driven by recent ETF inflows and market excitement over tokenization use cases, indicating a risk of overvaluation in the short term [4]. - The report notes that while the inflow of funds into Ethereum ETFs can significantly impact prices (with every $1 billion inflow potentially raising prices by 6%), the overall inflow is expected to be much lower than that of Bitcoin [4][10]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment has a limited impact on Ethereum's price in the base case scenario, although it could become a key driver in a recession, particularly if the stock market declines [11][14]. - Citigroup's baseline scenario predicts a year-end price of $4,300, assuming moderate capital inflows and sustained market excitement about Ethereum's network use cases [15]. Group 4: Price Scenarios - In a bullish scenario, the price could reach $6,400, driven by significant increases in network activity and sustained demand from ETFs and treasury companies [15]. - Conversely, in a bearish scenario, the price could drop to $2,200, primarily influenced by macroeconomic factors such as a recession and stock market downturns [15]. Group 5: Overall Analysis Framework - The report provides a clear analytical framework for investors, affirming Ethereum's value as an application platform while pointing out its core shortcoming in capturing value from the L2 ecosystem [18].

Group 1 - The market has fully priced in the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week [1] - The U.S. Court of Appeals rejected Trump's request to remove Fed Governor Cook, clearing the way for Cook to attend this week's Fed meeting, which may witness internal divisions within the Fed [1] - U.S. Treasury yields have declined, the U.S. dollar index has fallen, and cryptocurrencies have experienced widespread declines, while gold has reached a new high and oil prices have increased [1] Group 2 - The mainland stock market has risen, with Hong Kong's consumer discretionary, energy, and staple consumer sectors leading the gains, while materials, conglomerates, and real estate construction sectors have declined [1] - Biotech, lithium batteries, and smart terminals have performed well, with southbound funds net buying 14.473 billion HKD [1] - In A-shares, electric equipment, media, and agriculture sectors have seen the largest increases, while conglomerates, telecommunications, and defense industries have declined [1] Group 3 - Non-metallic building materials, energy, and iron ore prices have risen, while the yield on RMB government bonds has slightly increased, and the RMB has appreciated slightly [1]

近年来，阿联酋致力于打造数字经济枢纽，吸引了来自世界各地的创业者、投资者和科技创新者。凭借具有 前瞻性的战略规划和创新的监管框架，阿联酋正努力成为全球加密货币和区块链技术中心之一。 国家战略引领 再次，阿联酋不同的自由区配有各自的法律和监管框架。迪拜金融服务局是迪拜金融自由区——迪拜国际金 融中心的独立监管机构。2021年10月，迪拜金融服务局发布了"投资代币制度"，为投资代币提供了初步监管 框架。2022年底，迪拜金融服务局发布了"加密代币制度"，进一步规范加密货币行业和市场。2025年3月，迪 拜金融服务局再次发布《代币化监管沙盒指南》，明确将代币化纳入监管重点，并推出创新测试许可机制， 为提供代币化投资产品和服务的公司提供了合规途径。 数字化和经济多元化战略规划为阿联酋加密货币行业提供了清晰的政策导向和增长路径。 2017年，迪拜土地局率先将区块链技术应用于房地产交易，成为全球首家利用区块链技术处理日常事务的政 府机构；2023年3月，阿联酋中央银行启动"数字迪拉姆战略"，该战略是阿联酋央行金融基础设施转型计划的 9项举措之一，旨在通过发行央行数字货币，解决境内外支付痛点，支持数字化转型和数字经济发展， ...

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market is anticipating the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut after the current tightening cycle, with a 92% probability of a 25 basis point cut expected by traders, potentially leading to a continued easing trend in October and December [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The shift in monetary policy has triggered a chain reaction in global risk assets, particularly impacting high-volatility assets like cryptocurrencies, as evidenced by the capital flow data for Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs [1] - Bitcoin spot ETFs have attracted $642 million in the last five trading days, while Ethereum ETFs have seen a net inflow of $406 million over four days, indicating a re-evaluation of the risk-return profile of crypto assets by traditional financial institutions [3] - As of September 15, Bitcoin's price is around $115,300, with a weekly volatility of only 4%, significantly lower than that of altcoins [3] Group 2: Asset Performance and Strategy - A stark contrast is observed in the performance of altcoins, with Dogecoin surging over 30% and Solana ecosystem tokens rising over 20%, while many projects remain in liquidity distress, reflecting a deepening "core-satellite" strategy among institutions [4] - The influx of funds into leveraged contracts has increased the total open interest to $48 billion, with a 27% rise in the liquidation risk index since the beginning of the month [4] Group 3: Institutional and Retail Trends - 67% of institutional funds are concentrated in Bitcoin and Ethereum, a 21 percentage point increase from 2023, driving CME Bitcoin futures open interest above 320,000 contracts [7] - Retail investors are allocating 37% of their portfolios to high-risk assets like meme coins, leading to a 25.3% year-on-year increase in DEX trading volume [8] - The introduction of a meme coin section in XBIT Wallet aims to cater to retail investors' demand for high-risk assets, integrating real-time market data and community analytics for popular tokens [10] Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The SEC's push for a blockchain regulatory framework could clarify the legal ambiguities surrounding the classification of digital assets, with the MiCA regulation expected to establish a unified classification standard for crypto assets in the EU by Q4 2025 [10]

证券研究报告 海外 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 09 月 15 日 证券分析师 郑嘉伟 SAC：S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 于炳麟 SAC：S1350524060002 yubinglin@huayuanstock.com 郑冰倩 SAC：S1350525040002 zhengbingqian@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 风偏进一步提升 关注地缘变化 投资评级： 无 ——海外科技周报（25/9/8-25/9/12） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 海外 AI：本周甲骨文发布 FY1Q26 财报，公司在基础设施云业务（OCI）上大幅上调营收指引，反映出 AI 驱动 的算力需求快速增长。公司 RPO 同比增长 359%，达到 4550 亿美元，核心驱动力来自于与 OpenAI 等大客户的 长期合同，公司预计将签约几家价值数十亿美元的新客户，RPO 规模很可能超过 5000 亿美元。公司预计本财年 云基础设施收入将增长 77%，达到 180 亿美元，并在接下来的四年里分别增至 320 亿 ...

Market Overview - On September 15, US stock indices opened higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.21%, Nasdaq up 0.46%, and S&P 500 up 0.35% [1] Company News - Tesla CEO Elon Musk purchased over 2.57 million shares of Tesla stock on September 12, spending approximately $1 billion, with share prices ranging from $372.37 to $396.54 [3] - Hesai Technology signed a laser radar order worth over $40 million with a leading US Robotaxi company, planning to deliver the products by the end of 2026 [4] - Whirlpool raised concerns that competitors like Samsung and LG may be undervaluing imported goods to evade US tariffs, with Samsung declining to comment and LG asserting compliance with US laws [5] - BitMine increased its Ethereum holdings by 82,233 coins, bringing its total cryptocurrency and cash holdings to $10.8 billion, including 2,151,676 Ethereum and 192 Bitcoin [6] - Zeekr Technology's shareholders approved a merger agreement with Geely Automobile, with 94.2% voting in favor, after which Zeekr will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of Geely and will no longer be listed on the New York Stock Exchange [7] Regulatory News - Nvidia is under further investigation by China's State Administration for Market Regulation for allegedly violating antitrust laws related to its acquisition of Mellanox Technologies [2]

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com IG 分析师Chris Beauchamp在一份报告中表示，若美联储于周三重启降息，并释放未来将进一步宽 松政策的信号，加密货币价格可能会上涨。他指出："如果联邦公开市场委员会暗示本周的会议只是更 多次降息的开始，那么加密资产应当会继续成为主要受益品种之一。"伦敦证券交易所集团数据显示， 货币市场已完全消化周三降息25个基点的预期。此外，约81%的IG客户对比特币持多头立场，预期其价 格上涨；83%的客户对以太坊持多头立场。 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） ...