文 ｜ 陈俊云 近期市场对美国经济"滞胀"叙事的交易导致美股软件板块跟随市场出现大幅回调，但3 8家主流美 股软件公司2 0 2 4Q4财报显示，经历了过去三年的需求泡沫出清之后，欧美企业客户软件需求整体 趋于稳定，或呈现缓慢复苏迹象，部分软件企业2 0 2 5Q1和2 0 2 5全年偏保守的业绩指引亦和板块既 往的习惯相符，但近期特朗普政府系列政策对宏观的影响和预期扰动令市场明显担忧，需要谨慎关 注。投资节奏上，短期市场恢复趋势性的上行仍需要宏观不确定性的消除，AI在企业市场的商业 化部署，叠加企业云计算需求的持续向上料将使得基础软件板块在2 0 2 5H1显著受益，同时伴随宏 观预期的企稳，以及AI商业化收益的逐步体现，我们认为应用软件业绩有望在2 0 2 5H2显著改善。 ▍ 报告缘起： 参考软件板块2 0 2 4年四季报整体的业绩&指引，以及各公司对于下游需求环境的表述，我们判断 欧美企业IT支出短期仍将呈现稳步复苏态势。但近期特朗普政府在关税政策、政府部门裁员&预 算削减等层面的系列举措正在对美国宏观经济增长、通胀预期等构成持续的噪音和扰动，同时部 分软件企业较为保守的业绩指引等亦在一定程度上加剧了 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 4.187 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 17.47%, and a net profit of 1.823 billion RMB, up 30.00% year-over-year [1][2]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a significant revenue increase of 55.39% year-over-year and 95.93% quarter-over-quarter, driven by a recovery in market conditions [1][2]. - The company is benefiting from the rise in market activity, with a leading average monthly active user count of 32.46 million in 2024 [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 4.187 billion RMB and a net profit of 1.823 billion RMB, with a significant increase in Q4 revenue to 1.852 billion RMB [1][2]. - The revenue growth is attributed to a recovery in the A-share market, which saw a transaction volume of 257 trillion RMB in 2024, up 21.3% year-over-year [2]. Business Segments - The advertising and internet business generated 2.025 billion RMB in revenue, a 49.00% increase year-over-year, driven by the market recovery and AI applications [2]. - The value-added telecommunications business revenue was 1.616 billion RMB, up 5.70% year-over-year, while software sales and maintenance revenue decreased by 18.61% to 356 million RMB [2]. AI and Product Development - The company has integrated its platforms with DeepSeek, enhancing its AI capabilities and product competitiveness [3][4]. - The HithinkGPT model continues to evolve, with applications across various business scenarios, leading to the development of over 5,000 intelligent agents [4]. Profitability and Valuation - The company’s EPS is projected to be 5.41 RMB in 2025, with a target price set at 425.23 RMB based on a PE ratio of 78.6 [5][8]. - The report indicates a significant upward revision in EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026, reflecting a 73.4% and 99.4% increase, respectively [5].