证券研究报告 虹软科技 (688088 CH) 利润持续释放，智驾业务维持高增 | 华泰研究 | | | 动态点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 2 月 | 26 日│中国内地 | 计算机应用 | 目标价(人民币): | 71.27 | 虹软科技发布 2025 年业绩预告：预计营收 9.23 亿，yoy+13.22%；归母净 利 2.58 亿，yoy+45.86%；扣非净利 2.13 亿，yoy+36.85%。利润快速增长 主要得益于智驾营收高增长驱动该业务持续减亏。公司整体营收及归母净利 略低于我们预期（营收 10.21 亿，归母净利 2.84 亿），预计主要受部分手 机 IP 算法及智驾业务确收延期影响，智能终端及智驾业务收入增速低于我 们预期。展望未来，公司智能驾驶业务营收有望维持高增长，高利润率的智 能终端业务营收维持稳健增长，公司整体利润有望持续释放，维持买入评级。 25Q4 单季：收入同比+23%左右，归母净利同比+32%左右 虹软 25Q1-Q3 营收同比增速分别为 13.77%、2.08% ...

证券研究报告 虹软科技 (688088 CH) 利润持续释放，智驾业务维持高增 | 华泰研究 | | | 动态点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 2 月 | 26 日│中国内地 | 计算机应用 | 目标价(人民币): | 71.27 | 虹软科技发布 2025 年业绩预告：预计营收 9.23 亿，yoy+13.22%；归母净 利 2.58 亿，yoy+45.86%；扣非净利 2.13 亿，yoy+36.85%。利润快速增长 主要得益于智驾营收高增长驱动该业务持续减亏。公司整体营收及归母净利 略低于我们预期（营收 10.21 亿，归母净利 2.84 亿），预计主要受部分手 机 IP 算法及智驾业务确收延期影响，智能终端及智驾业务收入增速低于我 们预期。展望未来，公司智能驾驶业务营收有望维持高增长，高利润率的智 能终端业务营收维持稳健增长，公司整体利润有望持续释放，维持买入评级。 25Q4 单季：收入同比+23%左右，归母净利同比+32%左右 虹软 25Q1-Q3 营收同比增速分别为 13.77%、2.08% ...

Group 1 - The company expects to record a profit attributable to shareholders of approximately HKD 3 million to HKD 5 million for the six months ending December 31, 2025, compared to a profit of approximately HKD 11.6 million for the six months ending December 31, 2024 [1] - The decrease in profit is primarily due to a reduction in system sales revenue by approximately HKD 5 million, attributed to external factors such as weakened economic momentum in the UK and delays in government procurement processes [1] - Distribution costs have increased by approximately HKD 2 million compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The company has observed a rebound in order volume at the beginning of 2026, including new contracts for the Multitone Nucleus cloud messaging solution awarded by several UK healthcare trusts [1] - As of February 12, 2026, the company's stock closed at HKD 0.42, down 1.16%, with a trading volume of 72,000 shares and a transaction value of HKD 30,700 [1] - The company's market capitalization is HKD 161 million, ranking 49th in the computer applications industry [2]

Macroeconomic Insights - January non-farm employment data exceeded expectations with an increase of 130,000 jobs, significantly higher than the anticipated 65,000[2] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.3%, despite a rise in labor participation rate[2] - The Federal Reserve may pause interest rate cuts until June, with market expectations for a rate cut probability of less than 6% in March[3] Inflation and Economic Trends - The U.S. economy is transitioning from a "K-shaped" recovery to a "re-inflation" phase, with high-net-worth individuals stabilizing the economy through refinancing[6] - Inflation expectations are self-reinforcing, with actual mortgage rates at a three-year low, contributing to a recovery in the housing sector[8] - The housing affordability index remains above 100, indicating that median-income households can still afford homes despite high prices[21] Industry-Specific Developments - The traditional electronic fabric market is experiencing accelerated price increases due to supply shortages, with prices rising by 0.5-0.6 RMB/m[43] - The AI electronic fabric sector is expected to see significant growth in 2026, driven by demand from AI chips and consumer electronics[46] - The coal industry is projected to benefit from a resurgence in coal power in the U.S., with companies like Peabody Energy and China Shenhua expected to gain[51]

Group 1: Stock Price Movement - The stock price of Xiling Information (300588) experienced a fluctuation with an increase of 5.31% and a volatility of 15.10% during the period from February 5 to 11, 2026, contrasting with the company's forecasted loss for 2025 [1] - The stock price movement is primarily driven by the announcement on January 13, 2026, regarding the actual controllers' plan to reduce their holdings through a two-step transfer, which is expected to bring resource integration and governance optimization [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - In the past week, the main capital flow showed significant volatility, with a net inflow of 16.97 million yuan on February 5, leading to a single-day stock price increase of 2.68%, while there were net outflows of 5.36 million yuan and 3.85 million yuan on February 6 and 11, respectively, indicating capital divergence [2] - The turnover rate peaked at 4.77% on February 10, reflecting increased short-term trading activity, as some investors may be speculating around the control change event [2] Group 3: Company Fundamentals - The company is expected to report a net loss attributable to shareholders of 34 million to 48 million yuan for 2025, although this represents a narrowing of losses compared to 60.55 million yuan in 2024 [3] - Revenue is projected to grow by 32.11% to 47.47% year-on-year, mainly due to the consolidation of Beijing Zicai and gains from debt restructuring, contributing to non-recurring profits [3] - By the end of 2025, the gross profit from existing business orders is expected to increase, providing a foundation for new business expansion, which may attract investor interest in long-term performance recovery potential [3] Group 4: Stock Price Technical Indicators - Technical indicators show that the stock price has broken through the 20-day moving average resistance, with a single-day increase of 5.94% on February 10, reaching a peak of 28.58 yuan [4] - During the same period, the overall computer sector remained stable, with the Shenwan Computer Index declining by 0.27%, while sectors like cybersecurity and Huawei's computing concepts were active, providing some support for individual stock sentiment [4]

Group 1 - The company Shida Group (600734) forecasts a net loss of 120 million to 180 million yuan for the year 2025, marking a shift from profit to loss primarily due to rising costs, impairment provisions, and reduced investment income [1] - The expected operating revenue is projected to be between 315 million and 365 million yuan, indicating a slight year-on-year increase [1] Group 2 - Since February 2026, the company's stock price has shown significant volatility, with mixed market sentiment; for instance, on February 3, the stock price rose by 2.08% with a net inflow of 13.85 million yuan, while on February 6, it fell by 2.04% with a net outflow of 13.08 million yuan [2] Group 3 - The company previously planned to acquire 95% of the equity of a company named Shuchan Ming Shang to enhance its computing power business, but the formal agreement has not yet been signed, leading to uncertainty regarding the completion of the transaction [3] - The company faces risks related to deteriorating profitability, high debt-to-asset ratio, and tight cash flow [3]

Company Fundamentals - The company is expected to incur a loss of between 82.47 million and 123 million yuan in 2025, primarily due to an asset impairment provision of approximately 197 million yuan and a decline in gross profit from integrated sales [3] - Despite recent positive developments such as interest-free loans and litigation mediation, the loss situation remains unchanged, with a price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of -236.68 times, limiting the stock's upward momentum [3] Market and Technical Analysis - After reaching a limit-up on February 10, the stock experienced a pullback on February 11, closing down 5.74% at 73.35 yuan, attributed to profit-taking, technical overbought conditions, and fundamental pressures [1][2] - The stock's turnover rate was high at 33.22% on February 10, with a trading volume of 1.443 billion yuan, indicating intense short-term trading activity [2] - On February 11, the turnover rate remained at 27.98%, with a trading volume of 1.223 billion yuan, but there was a net outflow of 41.39 million yuan from main funds, suggesting profit realization [2] Industry Sector Overview - The computing power leasing sector saw a slight increase of 0.33% on February 11, while related sectors such as cloud computing and big data generally declined, with the AIGC concept down by 1.85% [4] - Market funds are rotating within popular sectors, and as a small-cap stock with a circulating market value of 4.321 billion yuan, the company is more susceptible to short-term sentiment fluctuations [4] Capital Flow Dynamics - There was a divergence in capital flow, with retail investors actively buying on February 10, while institutional investors net sold 12.3 million yuan and the Shenzhen Stock Connect also saw a net outflow of 4.9 million yuan [5] - This divergence translated into selling pressure the following day, particularly as retail investors favored short-term operations, increasing stock volatility [5]

Group 1: Market Overview - The market experienced significant fluctuations last week, particularly in precious metals, technology stocks, and US stocks [4] - The Hang Seng Tech Index has entered a technical bear market, with a decline of -21.56% from its recent high of 6715.46 points to a low of 5267.63 points [4] Group 2: Index Valuation - Major broad-based indices are generally at normal or higher valuation levels, with the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 at below 50 degrees, indicating low relative valuation [7] - The Hang Seng Index (82.1 degrees), Sci-Tech 50 (82.2 degrees), and State-Owned Enterprises Index (82.7 degrees) are at higher valuation levels, suggesting caution in investment decisions [7] - The overall market represented by the CSI All A is at 62.3 degrees, indicating limited low-valuation opportunities [7] Group 3: Global Index Valuation - Compared to domestic indices, global broad-based indices are at higher valuation levels, with major indices in the US, UK, Germany, and Japan also showing elevated valuations [9] - The high valuations in global markets may lead to increased volatility with any external disturbances [9] Group 4: Dividend Indices - The CSI Dividend Index has a PE ratio around 10 and a dividend yield of 4.89%, which is historically low, indicating a need to wait for better opportunities [11] - The dividend yield of Hong Kong stocks remains higher than that of A-shares, influenced by market factors and tax considerations [12] Group 5: Strategy Indices - Among strategy indices, the Dividend Quality index is currently undervalued, while the 300 Value and 50 Fundamentals indices are relatively low [13] - The AH strategy, which involves arbitrage between A and H shares, is currently at a historically high valuation level [14] Group 6: Industry Indices - The pharmaceutical and consumer sectors are currently at lower valuation levels, with leading consumer indices still undervalued despite some recent rebounds [15] - The technology sector, represented by tech leaders and the All-Information Index, is at historically high valuation levels, driven by advancements in AI and cloud computing [18] Group 7: Other Indices - The agricultural sector, represented by indices like the CSI Livestock and CSI Agriculture, is at a low valuation level, reflecting its status as a "necessity consumer goods" sector [20] - The demand in the agricultural sector is relatively stable, which presents both advantages and limitations in terms of elasticity [21]

Group 1 - The core announcement is that Kingdee International (00268.HK) plans to repurchase 1 million shares at a total cost of HKD 11.0597 million, with a per-share price ranging from HKD 11.05 to HKD 11.10 [1] - As of the market close on February 4, 2026, Kingdee International's stock price was HKD 11.06, reflecting a decline of 12.64% with a trading volume of 145 million shares and a total transaction value of HKD 1.601 billion [1] - Investment banks predominantly rate the stock as a buy, with two firms issuing buy ratings in the last 90 days and an average target price of HKD 19.7 [1] Group 2 - Kingdee International has a market capitalization of HKD 44.936 billion and ranks third in the computer application industry [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of $539.22 [1][5] Core Views - The company reported FY26Q2 revenue of $81.3 billion, a year-over-year increase of 17%, exceeding Visible Alpha consensus by 1.20% [1] - The growth in revenue was primarily driven by the productivity and business processes, as well as the intelligent cloud segments, indicating a strong outlook for AI commercialization in FY2026 [1] - The number of paid users for M365 Copilot exceeded 15 million, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 160%, while GitHub Copilot paid users reached 4.7 million, up 75% year-over-year [2] - The intelligent cloud business revenue reached $32.9 billion, with Azure and other cloud services revenue growing by 39% year-over-year, although the growth rate showed a slight deceleration compared to the previous quarter [3] - The company’s capital expenditures (CapEx) for FY26Q2 were $37.5 billion, a 66% increase year-over-year, indicating a strong commitment to AI commercialization despite a guidance for a slowdown in CapEx for FY26Q3 [4] - Revenue forecasts for FY26-28 have been slightly adjusted upwards to $326.5 billion, $380.6 billion, and $445.8 billion respectively, with EPS estimates also increased [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY26Q2 revenue was $81.3 billion, with a 17% year-over-year increase and net profit of $38.5 billion, up 60% year-over-year [1] - The productivity and business processes segment generated $34.1 billion in revenue, a 16% increase year-over-year, driven by the acceleration of Copilot product commercialization [2] - The intelligent cloud segment reported $32.9 billion in revenue, a 29% increase year-over-year, with Azure revenue growing by 39% [3] Capital Expenditures - CapEx for FY26Q2 was $37.5 billion, a 66% increase year-over-year, indicating a strong focus on AI commercialization [4] - The company expects a slowdown in CapEx for FY26Q3, but overall CapEx growth for FY26 is anticipated to exceed FY25 levels [4] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for FY26-28 have been adjusted to $326.5 billion, $380.6 billion, and $445.8 billion respectively, reflecting positive growth expectations [5] - EPS estimates for FY26-28 have been slightly increased to $16.34, $19.43, and $23.16 respectively [5]