Market Outlook - Market anticipates a 98% chance of a rate cut, potentially leading to Quantitative Easing (QE) [1] - Expectation of renewed "infinite money printing" in the near future [1] Risk Management - Strategy described as "derisking" the current financial situation [1]

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🇺🇸 The FED FOMC rate cut decision will be announced tomorrow at 2pm ET.The market is expecting a 25 bps rate cut at this meeting, so it won't impact the market much.What's even more important is Powell's speech, which will start at 2:30pm ET.The job market is already cooked, and last week's CPI also came lower than expected.Along with that, US economic activity is also slowing down due to the government shutdown.All these things are enough for Powell to be dovish, but there's more to it.For the first time i ...

$114K Bitcoin ahead of tomorrow's Fed rate cut decision.Loading… 🚀 https://t.co/9WwZweDowU ...

Group 1 - Easing trade tensions and a likely rate cut from the Federal Reserve are contributing to a bullish stock market outlook, with major indices reaching new intraday records [1][2] - The Dow increased by 222 points (0.5%), the S&P 500 rose by 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite saw a rise of 1.4%, all breaking their previous intraday records [1] - The current market trend indicates a risk-on sentiment, as evidenced by the decline in gold and the 10-year Treasury note values [2] Group 2 - A framework for a trade deal between the U.S. and China has been agreed upon, which is expected to improve access to critical minerals for U.S. companies and potentially reduce sanctions on China [2] - This development is viewed positively by investors, suggesting a more favorable trading environment [2]

Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index indicated a slight cooling of inflation in September, with core inflation rising by 3%, down from 3.1% in the previous month, and a month-over-month increase of 0.2% after a 0.3% rise in the two preceding months [1] - Job growth in the private sector totaled 157,000 from May to August, with healthcare adding 249,000 jobs, while other sectors combined lost 92,000 jobs [3] - The average job growth for September was reported at just 13,000, with ADP indicating a decline of 32,000 in private payroll employment [4] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges in making monetary policy decisions due to the government shutdown, which has delayed the release of critical job data [5][7] - Fed officials are expected to cut the benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point for the second time this year, despite the lack of official job data [6][10] - Policymakers have indicated a median estimate of two more rate cuts for the year, with markets anticipating a cut this week and potentially another in December [20][21] Labor Market Insights - The labor market is showing signs of softening, with concerns that it may not recover soon, as indicated by various data sources [2][9] - Delinquencies in subprime auto loans have raised concerns about the overall health of the economy, although some analysts do not see this as an early sign of a financial crisis [14][15] - Analysts suggest that the Fed needs to be cautious about inflation numbers, as persistent inflation could complicate future monetary policy decisions [12][19]

Economic Impact - The current government shutdown is the second-longest in history, leading to dissatisfaction among furloughed workers and economic instability in regional banks [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3% over the past 12 months, slightly below the expected 3.1%, influencing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [2] - Bank of America analysts predict a 25 basis point rate cut to a range of 3.75-4.0% at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting [3] Market Performance - Despite the government shutdown, the stock market remains largely unaffected, with the S&P 500 advancing 1.9% this week and the Nasdaq Composite rising 2.3% [5] - The small-cap Russell 2000 closed 2.5% higher this week, benefiting from the new CPI report and potential rate cuts [5] Commodity Trends - Gold prices declined by 2% this week after a continuous rally in the last quarter, while the CBOE Volatility Index decreased by 21% [4] - Oil prices closed 0.6% lower on Friday but maintained a weekly gain of 6.8% due to earlier increases from Russian oil sanctions [4] Trade Relations - Ongoing trade tensions are highlighted by President Trump's termination of trade negotiations with Canada, alleging illegal influence on the U.S. Supreme Court [5] - The Supreme Court is set to hear oral arguments regarding the legality of tariffs imposed by President Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act on November 5 [6]

So, with today's inflation report, can we add rate cuts to the list of bullish market indicators and will that keep this rally going. Well, joining us now is Renaissance Macro Research head of US economics Neil Duta and Evans May wealth managing partner Brooke May. Great to have you both both here.And Brooke, I'm going to kick this conversation off with you because so far earning season has been incredibly strong when you look at these beat rates much much higher than we've seen uh previously and and histor ...

Economic Overview - The recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed inflation cooler than expected, leading to a slight dip in the 10-year yield, which is currently hovering around the key 4% level [1][3][9] - On a relative basis, the CPI came in below expectations, which was positively received by the market, resulting in a rally in treasuries [2][3] Inflation Insights - Despite the positive relative performance, inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, indicating ongoing concerns [3][4] - The CPI report revealed mixed trends, with some components like owner's equivalent rent decreasing, while goods prices, particularly in apparel, are starting to rise, potentially due to tariff impacts [7][8] Interest Rate Expectations - There is an expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut, with the likelihood of this occurring next week or possibly in December, depending on economic developments [4][6] Fixed Income Opportunities - The fixed income market presents attractive opportunities, particularly in the municipal bond sector, which offers tax-exempt interest income and generally high credit quality [10][11] - The current yield environment, especially after recent years, is considered attractive for investors seeking income options [9][10]