Almost two-thirds of small and mid-size business owners say they plan to increase prices next year as nearly all wrangle with inflation hitting their operations, a Bank of America report finds, yet many owners still expect higher revenue and plan to expand in the year ahead.https://t.co/MkDWUdJpmC ...

Core Viewpoint - The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Susan Collins, is currently not in favor of cutting the U.S. central bank's interest rate target in the upcoming month due to persistent risks related to inflation and employment mandates [1] Group 1 - Susan Collins emphasizes the ongoing risks to inflation that the Federal Reserve is facing [1] - The job mandates are also a significant concern for the Federal Reserve, influencing the decision on interest rates [1]

Core Insights - Tech and AI stocks faced significant declines this week, with Nvidia and Palantir experiencing notable drops, while the Nasdaq-100 had one of its worst performances since April [2] - In contrast, Ross Stores achieved record highs, exceeding market expectations and announcing aggressive expansion plans [3][4] Company Performance - Ross Stores reported third-quarter earnings of $1.58 per share, surpassing analyst expectations of $1.42, reflecting a 7% year-over-year increase [4][7] - Sales for Ross Stores increased by 10% to $5.6 billion, with same-store sales rising by 7% [4][7] - The company experienced a 9.4% increase in foot traffic during the third quarter, indicating strong consumer interest [5][7] Market Positioning - CEO Jim Conroy highlighted a successful back-to-school season and strong sales trends, contributing to an operating margin of 11.6%, which exceeded expectations [5] - Ross Stores' performance stands in stark contrast to Target, which saw a 2.7% decline in store visits and its stock reaching a six-year low, as consumers perceive Target as a more "luxury" discount option compared to Ross [6]

Core Insights - The American consumer is showing signs of caution as they approach the holiday season, influenced by a softening job market and persistent inflation [1][6] Retailer Performance - Target Corp. reported earnings indicating a reduction in prices at the expense of profits, with customers pulling back on nonessential purchases like apparel and home goods [2] - Home Depot Inc. saw a decline of over 5% in its stock, the largest drop since March, after it lowered its outlook due to homeowners delaying big-ticket purchases [2] - Walmart Inc. experienced a stock rally, but its growth was primarily driven by grocery sales and mid-tier customers seeking bargains, reflecting consumer skittishness [3] Consumer Sentiment - Reports from various retailers, including Gap Inc., Ross Stores Inc., and TJX Cos., indicate that consumers are increasingly questioning discretionary purchases and opting for essentials to manage their budgets [4] - Wealthier Americans, who have traditionally supported economic growth, are also becoming more cost-conscious, as highlighted by a significant drop in the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment gauge [4] Economic Implications - The persistence of high prices and weakening incomes is causing frustration among consumers, which poses challenges for an economy reliant on consumer spending [5] - Concerns are rising that corporate revenue growth may slow and profit margins could be squeezed as consumer sentiment declines and the economy softens [7] - Retailer stocks have been lagging behind the broader market, particularly as lower-end consumers face inflationary pressures and a challenging job market [7]

By Kevin Flanagan, Head of Fixed Income Strategy Key Takeaways No matter what Fed officials may be saying, it will all come down to the data, specifically the labor market data. On that front, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the September jobs report (which will include nonfarm payrolls AND the unemployment rate) is scheduled to be released this week on November 20, so some of the "data fog†for the Fed should begin to get lifted. This article originally appeared on WisdomTree's website and is r ...

Group 1 - The overall rejection rate for any kind of credit in the past 12 months has increased to 24.8% from 23.1%, marking a new series high, with mortgage refinancing rejections hitting a record 45.7% [4] - A study indicates that only 40% of workers aged 61 to 65 are financially on track for retirement, with a median annual deficit of $9,000, representing a 24% shortfall in their funding needs [6] - Nearly 875,000 homeowners have underwater mortgages, the highest level in three years, attributed to softening home prices and elevated borrowing costs [14] Group 2 - The US is preparing $2,000 stimulus checks, while Japan and China are preparing stimulus packages of $110 billion and $1.4 trillion respectively, indicating a global trend towards monetary easing [8] - The 401(k) contribution limit for workers under 50 will increase to $24,500 in 2026, with higher limits for older workers, providing an opportunity for increased retirement savings [10] - The number of housing foreclosures has risen, with over 101,000 properties receiving filings in Q3, a 17% increase from the previous year [17] Group 3 - The three major stock indices posted significant losses for the week, with the S&P 500 and Dow down 2% and the Nasdaq down 2.7%, highlighting market volatility [20] - The "Magnificent 7 stocks" now account for over 36% of the S&P 500's total market capitalization, with NVIDIA alone contributing 20%, raising concerns about market concentration [20] - The US Mint has stopped producing pennies, a move seen as a sign of the declining value of the US dollar, which costs 3.7 cents to produce [25][30]

Economic Growth - The global economy is expected to experience moderate recovery in 2026, driven by policy adjustments, AI technology advancements, and evolving geopolitical dynamics [1][11][13] - The US economy shows resilience, with AI-related capital expenditures projected to approach $500 billion, supported by the OBBBA act and anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1][28][31] - The Eurozone is expected to see growth driven by increased infrastructure and defense spending in Germany, although France's economy remains relatively weak [1][29] - Japan is entering a new growth phase, moving away from deflation, with improvements in wages and corporate investment [1][36] - China's economic growth is expected to remain stable, supported by high-tech advantages and localized AI development, despite ongoing real estate challenges [1][38][42] Inflation - US inflation is projected to rise in the short term due to tariffs but is expected to return to target levels by early to mid-2027 [2][20][44] - Eurozone core inflation is anticipated to trend towards the ECB's 2% target, with wage growth expected to decline [2][51] - In the UK, inflation is expected to fall significantly due to one-off factors and slower wage growth [2][50] - Japan's inflation is expected to experience temporary fluctuations but will likely remain close to the BoJ's 2% target [2][54] - China is expected to remain near deflationary levels due to supply-demand imbalances and weak labor market conditions [2][59] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting interest rates, with market expectations suggesting rates may approach 3% by the end of 2026 [2][67] - The European Central Bank is likely to maintain interest rates at 2% for an extended period, with minor adjustments expected [2][68] - The Bank of England is anticipated to cut rates more aggressively as inflation returns to target levels [2][69] - The Bank of Japan may implement further rate hikes in response to economic growth and inflationary pressures [2][73] - Emerging market central banks are expected to continue easing monetary policy, albeit at a slower pace [2][73] Markets - Developed market equities are expected to show strong earnings growth driven by the AI boom, although high valuations pose risks [3][90][92] - Emerging market equities present a mixed outlook, with potential upside from AI and USD weakness countered by trade uncertainties [3][95] - Japanese equities are viewed positively due to the end of deflation and corporate governance reforms, which may enhance profitability [3][96] - Global nominal government bonds are seen as neutral, with specific regional views favoring UK long-dated gilts due to expected interest rate cuts [3][101] - Credit markets are neutral on investment-grade credit, with high yield credit spreads remaining tight, indicating limited upside [3][106] Private Markets - Private markets are experiencing a "democratization" trend, attracting retail investments, particularly in AI-related sectors [3][4] - Hedge funds are benefiting from market volatility and structural trends, presenting alpha opportunities [3][4]

RT Nick Almond (@DrNickA)Double disinflation. Gets the network to tail inflation in half the time.The last time an inflation reduction proposal went up on Solana it was probably one of the biggest votes in crypto history.Solana Governance is getting an upgrade soon too. Fun times. https://t.co/ViW7n3AuUQ ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve, particularly through New York Fed President John Williams, is signaling a higher likelihood of interest rate cuts in the near future [3][4][13] - The Fed is closely monitoring labor market conditions and inflation, with concerns that a weakening labor market may prompt rate cuts if inflation is deemed manageable [5][7][8] - Despite high-profile layoffs in large companies, jobless claims remain relatively low, indicating a complex labor market situation [9][10] Group 2 - The yield curve shows that while short-term interest rates may be cut, long-term rates are not decreasing, which could limit relief for homebuyers [11] - The decision-making process within the Fed may lead to a scenario where Jay Powell acts as the tiebreaker among differing opinions on rate cuts [12][14]

RT Max Resnick (@MaxResnick1)Increase Bandwidth reduce inflation ...