Thanks to a scarcity of government data on how much (or little) consumers are spending, Wall Street is analyzing this quarter’s retail earnings reports even more closely than usual. And those numbers have made one thing clear: Walmart is still the retail king. The country’s largest retailer not only beat earnings and revenue estimates during its third quarter but also bumped its full-year sales and earnings outlook higher. That’s the second quarter in a row Walmart has increased its forecast for the year, ...

Economic Indicators - U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 119K in September, surpassing expectations of 53K, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, a nearly 4-year high, compared to expectations of no change at 4.3% [1] - Average hourly earnings in the U.S. rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year, slightly below expectations of 0.3% and 3.7% respectively [1] - U.S. rate futures indicate a 59.0% probability of no rate change and a 41.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting [5] Stock Market Performance - Major U.S. indices closed lower, with Nvidia (NVDA) down over 3% and Tesla (TSLA) down more than 2% [2] - Micron Technology (MU) fell over 10%, leading losses in the Nasdaq 100, while Jacobs Solutions (J) dropped over 10% after disappointing earnings [2] - Walmart (WMT) rose more than 6% after reporting better-than-expected Q3 results and raising its full-year guidance [2] Federal Reserve Commentary - New York Fed President John Williams indicated potential for interest rate cuts as the labor market weakens, suggesting a modestly restrictive monetary policy [3] - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that rate cuts could prolong above-target inflation and increase financial stability risks [4] - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed caution about approving another rate cut next month, emphasizing the need for careful monetary policy [4] International Market Trends - Euro Stoxx 50 Index fell 1.70%, reflecting declines in Asian and U.S. markets, with technology stocks particularly affected [8] - Japan's Nikkei 225 Index also closed lower, driven by weakness in the technology sector amid fears of an AI bubble [12] - China's Shanghai Composite Index experienced a significant drop, marking its largest weekly decline since late December [11] Corporate Developments - Ubisoft (UBI.FP) surged over 10% after reporting strong FQ2 net bookings and announcing plans to reduce debt [8] - Intuit (INTU) rose over 3% in pre-market trading following stronger-than-expected FQ1 results [15] - The Gap (GAP) climbed more than 4% after reporting better-than-expected Q3 results and raising its sales growth forecast [15]

Economic Indicators - Euro-area pay growth eased [1] Monetary Policy Implications - Supports the ECB's expectation that sticky services inflation will moderate [1]

Credit where credit's due, President Trump made a big bet that the US had a magnetic appeal and that would enable him to get a better deal from US trade partners and companies that want to do business in the United States. On the evidence of the last few months, that bet is playing out pretty nicely. Did the economics profession get it wrong on tariffs or is the impact just delayed.Economists don't agree on much. One thing they do agree on is that free trade is good and that tariffs are bad. If we were to t ...

Core Insights - Global inflation remains persistent, leading to a decline in discretionary spending, which significantly impacts retailers [1] - Retailers face weaker pricing and increased cost pressures, affecting even those with strong brand recognition [1] Industry Summary - The logistics sector is experiencing challenges due to inflation and changing consumer spending patterns [1] - Retailers are often the first to feel the effects of economic downturns, resulting in a ripple effect across various sectors [1] Company Summary - Companies with established domestic footprints are not immune to the pressures of inflation and changing consumer behavior [1] - The article highlights the importance of diversification in investment portfolios, particularly in sectors like banking, telecommunications, logistics, and hotels [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's cabinet has approved a significant stimulus package of 21.3 trillion yen ($135.5 billion), the largest since the COVID-19 pandemic, aimed at addressing economic challenges and boosting growth [1][2] Economic Context - The stimulus package focuses on three main objectives: alleviating rising prices, promoting robust economic growth, and enhancing defense and diplomacy [2] - It includes local government grants and energy subsidies, which are expected to provide households with approximately 7,000 yen over three months [2] - Japan's economy has recently shown signs of weakness, with a GDP decline of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, translating to a 1.8% annualized contraction, marking the first decline in 18 months [4] Inflation and Economic Impact - Inflation in Japan has remained above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for 43 consecutive months, reaching 3% in October 2025 [4] - The government anticipates that the stimulus will increase real GDP by 24 trillion yen, resulting in a total economic impact of nearly $265 billion [4] Market Reactions and Concerns - Despite the stimulus efforts, market observers express skepticism regarding the effectiveness of continued fiscal stimulus beyond emergency situations [5] - The price of five-year credit default swaps on Japanese government bonds has risen to 21.73 basis points, indicating heightened investor concerns about default risk [5] Currency and Bond Market Dynamics - Following the announcement of the stimulus, the yen has depreciated significantly, raising concerns about currency stability and potential government intervention [6] - The 40-year bond yield reached a historic 3.774%, with rising yields reflecting worries about future inflation and fiscal health [7] - A 100-basis-point increase in yields could raise annual government financing costs by approximately 2.8 trillion yen, intensifying fears regarding unsustainable debt servicing [7]

Core Insights - Walmart Inc. reported a strong third-quarter performance, exceeding Wall Street expectations and raising its full-year guidance [1][6] - Executives noted that while grocery prices are stabilizing, tariffs could still impact household item costs [1][2] Financial Performance - Walmart's quarterly sales reached $179.5 billion, marking a 5.8% year-over-year increase, primarily driven by upper-income households seeking value [6] - The company reported adjusted earnings per share of 62 cents, surpassing the expected 60 cents [6] - Walmart raised its fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings outlook to a range of $2.58 to $2.63 per share [6] Tariff and Inflation Insights - Overall inflation for Walmart is currently in the "low-1% range," indicating a cooling from previous highs [2] - Imported non-food goods remain vulnerable to trade-related cost pressures, while grocery prices have shown relief, particularly in key food categories [2][3] - The primary exception in grocery prices is beef, attributed to commodity cycles rather than trade policies [4] Supply Chain Management - Walmart is focusing on supply chain discipline to mitigate potential price hikes from tariffs, effectively managing inventory levels and product mix [4][5] - Inventory closed the quarter up 2.6%, which is about half the rate of sales growth, allowing the company to maintain margins without fully passing tariff costs to consumers [5] Stock Performance - Walmart shares increased by 19.01% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500 index, which rose by 11.42% [7] - The stock closed at $107.11, up 6.46% on Thursday, with an overall increase of 21.18% over the year [7]

It is time now for money power politics. Despite uncertainty in the economy, higher prices, and consumer sentiment reaching near record lows, this month about 187 million people are expected to shop from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday this year, according to the National Retail Federation. That is a recordbreaking number.And last month, home sales rose to their highest level since February. But the biggest surprise came with today's jobs report. The delayed number showed that the US added 119,000 jobs in ...

The best way to beat inflation? Investing in yourself so that you become so good at what you do that people will pay a premium for your skills and they won't be "inflated away." https://t.co/dI4QFOBoxY ...

美联储内部分歧加剧，三位高级官员在同一天对通胀问题表达担忧，令12月降息前景更加不明朗。 周四，美联储理事Michael Barr表示，鉴于通胀率仍在3%左右徘徊，距离2%的目标尚有距离，美联储 在考虑进一步降息时需要谨慎行事。 我担心的是我们看到的通胀率仍徘徊在3%左右，而我们的目标是2%，我们致力于达到这个 目标。 理事Barr转向谨慎立场 作为美联储理事，Michael Barr的立场至关重要。他此前支持了9月和10月的降息，但对12月的行动一直 未表露明确态度。 鉴于已有多位同僚公开了支持或反对第三次降息的立场，Barr的投票可能将起到决定性作用。 Barr虽未明确反对降息，但他对通胀的担忧将使决策变得更加复杂。根据期货合约定价，投资者目前预 计12月会议降息的可能性仅为40%左右。 几乎同一时间，克利夫兰联储主席Beth Hammack重申反对进一步降息，芝加哥联储主席Austan Goolsbee也表示对12月降息感到不安。 他强调： 因此，我们在货币政策上需要小心谨慎，因为我们希望确保我们实现双重使命的两个方面。 尽管Barr没有直接声明反对再次降息，但他对通胀停滞的不安，无疑会使鲍威尔在12月 ...