Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba emphasizes the need to sincerely confront the severe situation facing the country [1] Group 1 - The election votes are still being counted, preventing any comments on future arrangements [1] - The Prime Minister will fully engage in tariff negotiations before the August deadline [1] - There is no intention to transfer power to the opposition [1]

Core Viewpoint - The actions of former President Bolsonaro should not impact tariff negotiations according to Brazilian Vice President Alckmin [1] Group 1 - Brazilian Vice President Alckmin emphasizes the importance of continuing tariff negotiations despite political actions related to former President Bolsonaro [1]

Core Viewpoint - The German economy has turned around from recession and is moving towards recovery, supported by recent tax relief policies and increasing market confidence [1] Economic Recovery - German Chancellor Merz stated that the government’s recent tax cuts are having a positive effect, leading to a significant increase in investor confidence and expectations for economic growth [1] - Economic research institutions have begun to revise upward their growth forecasts for Germany [1] Trade Negotiations - The EU-US tariff negotiations have entered their final stage, with discussions ongoing about whether to implement differentiated policies for specific industries [1] - Merz supports the EU Commission's efforts to reach an agreement, emphasizing that lower tariffs benefit both parties and that high tariffs ultimately harm everyone [1] Fiscal Concerns - Merz highlighted that the US tax and spending policies have placed significant pressure on its budget, potentially leading to serious fiscal deficits [1]

Core Viewpoint - Brazilian President Lula criticized Trump's tariff letter, stating it lacks negotiation logic [1] Group 1 - Lula's comments highlight the ongoing tensions between Brazil and the United States regarding trade policies [1] - The statement reflects Brazil's stance on international trade negotiations and its approach to tariffs [1] - The lack of negotiation logic in Trump's letter suggests potential challenges in future trade discussions between the two countries [1]

Core Viewpoint - Switzerland's exports to the U.S. rebounded in June, indicating strong bilateral trade amid ongoing tariff negotiations between the two countries [1] Trade Performance - Swiss exports to the U.S. increased by 26.9% in June compared to May, after seasonal adjustments [1] - Imports from the U.S. saw a slight growth of 0.2% [1] Trade Agreement Negotiations - Switzerland is in negotiations with the U.S. to reach a trade agreement, with Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter stating that the two countries are "very close" to an agreement [1] - Reports suggest that the draft agreement includes guarantees to avoid tariffs on Swiss pharmaceutical exports [1] Political Context - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated to Switzerland that an agreement is imminent, but President Trump mentioned that global pharmaceutical tariffs could be implemented as early as August 1 [1] - Swiss left-wing lawmakers are calling for joint countermeasures with the EU in response to U.S. tariffs [1]

巴西雷亚尔兑美元跌幅收窄，逼近5.5580雷亚尔上方的平盘位置。 巴西政府周二发函美国商务部长卢特尼克和贸易代表贾米森·格里尔，敦促两国在关税问题上推进谈 判。 ...

印尼总统：我们理解美国在关税谈判中的利益，将继续进行谈判。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S.-China trade negotiations** and its implications on the **capital markets** in both countries, as well as the **technology sector** in the U.S. and China. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Currency Sensitivity and Tariff Negotiations** The sensitivity of exchange rates reflects underlying issues related to tariffs. Recent negotiations between the U.S. and China have shown signs of progress, with U.S. officials expressing willingness to discuss tariff issues with China. This indicates potential opportunities for dialogue and resolution [1][2][3]. 2. **Short-term Market Reactions** The potential for a short-term boost in capital markets due to easing tensions in trade negotiations has been noted. The U.S. market showed signs of rebound during the recent holiday, and similar expectations are held for the A-share market in China [2][3]. 3. **Manufacturing Sector Concerns** Recent data indicates that the manufacturing sector's performance has dropped below the 50% threshold, signaling contraction. This decline, which is 1.5% lower than the previous month, reflects significant pressure on businesses and a loss of orders [3][4]. 4. **Emerging Market Currency Strength** The Taiwanese dollar has appreciated significantly (5%) against the U.S. dollar, potentially as a result of trade negotiations. This could indicate a compromise involving currency valuation in exchange for tariff concessions [4][5]. 5. **U.S. Economic Resilience** Recent U.S. macroeconomic data, including better-than-expected non-farm payroll figures, suggests that the economy is not yet in recession. This resilience is reflected in the performance of major technology companies, which continue to show strong revenue growth [6][7][8]. 6. **Technology Sector Outlook** The technology sector in both the U.S. and China is expected to benefit from favorable policies and market conditions. In China, recent high-level meetings have emphasized the importance of technology, particularly in artificial intelligence [8][9]. 7. **Gold and Risk Perception** The recent decline in global risk levels has affected gold prices, which are typically seen as a safe haven. The expectation is that gold may experience further adjustments before becoming an attractive investment again [9][10]. 8. **Long-term Economic Strategies** Warren Buffett's insights from the recent shareholder meeting highlight the need for the U.S. to address its fiscal deficit without resorting to tariffs. He suggests that the era of relying on global markets for growth may be coming to an end, emphasizing the importance of domestic consumption in China [11][12]. 9. **Transition in Leadership** Buffett's impending retirement and the transition to his successor Abel marks a significant change in the investment landscape. Despite this, Buffett remains optimistic about the long-term prospects of the U.S. economy, suggesting that significant opportunities will continue to exist [13]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The discussions reflect a broader sentiment of cautious optimism regarding the potential for improved trade relations and economic performance, while also acknowledging the persistent challenges faced by both markets. - The emphasis on technology as a key growth area indicates a strategic pivot that could shape future investment decisions in both the U.S. and China.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, mild CPI data boosted market sentiment, while tariff risks continued to affect expectations. The market digested the probability of no rate cut in July and a 54% probability of a rate cut in September. In China, the Q2 GDP exceeded expectations at 5.2%, but structural issues persisted, with production being strong and demand weakening. The Central Urban Work Conference emphasized the medium - to long - term real estate direction [2][3]. - For precious metals, silver prices are in short - term adjustment, but the upward trend remains unchanged. Copper is expected to enter a short - term shock, with Shanghai copper stabilizing and waiting for new drivers. Aluminum prices are in shock adjustment due to the consumption off - season. Alumina is in a strong shock. Zinc prices are weakly oscillating due to the cooling of rate - cut and policy expectations. Lead prices are dragged down by LME inventory increases. Tin prices are oscillating due to macro - and micro - level factors. Industrial silicon is expected to continue to rebound. Lithium carbonate prices are oscillating. Nickel prices are oscillating without clear guidance. Crude oil prices are oscillating due to geopolitical risks. Steel futures are oscillating downward. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate in the short term. Bean and rapeseed meal may oscillate strongly. Palm oil may enter an oscillating adjustment phase [4][6][8][10][11][13][15][16][18][20][21][22][24][25][28]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - **Overseas**: In June, the US CPI was lower than expected, with the core CPI at 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The US reduced tariffs on Indonesia to 19%, and the US Treasury Secretary stated that China - US tariff negotiations were progressing smoothly. The dollar index was above 98.5, the 10Y US Treasury yield approached 4.5%, the US stock market opened high and closed low, gold prices rose and then fell, and copper and oil prices oscillated [2]. - **Domestic**: Q2 GDP exceeded expectations at 5.2%, but structural issues remained. Industrial added value in June was much higher than expected, while investment weakened across the board, the real estate market was sluggish, and social retail sales were lower than expected. After the data release, the bond market rose, and the A - share market adjusted. The Central Urban Work Conference emphasized the medium - to long - term real estate direction [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures continued to correct on Tuesday. COMEX gold futures fell 0.85% to $3330.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.95% to $37.99 per ounce. Silver prices are in short - term adjustment, but the upward trend remains unchanged [4]. 3.3 Base Metals - **Copper**: Shanghai copper's main contract stopped falling and stabilized. The LME copper price was seeking support at the $9600 level. The domestic inflation transmission process was slow, and it is expected that the inflation pressure in the US will increase significantly in July - August. China's GDP growth in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, and the market is expected to enter a short - term shock [6][7]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 20430 yuan/ton, down 0.02%. The market is in the consumption off - season, and aluminum prices are in shock adjustment [8]. - **Alumina**: Alumina futures' main contract closed at 3165 yuan/ton, up 1.22%. The spot market is in a strong shock [10]. - **Zinc**: Shanghai zinc's main contract oscillated weakly. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has cooled, and zinc prices are weakly oscillating [11][12]. - **Lead**: Shanghai lead's main contract fell during the day and rebounded at night. LME inventory increased significantly, dragging down Shanghai lead prices. The short - term downward trend is expected to slow down [13][14]. - **Tin**: Shanghai tin's main contract first rose and then fell during the day and stabilized at night. Macro - and micro - level factors are in a stalemate, and tin prices are oscillating [15]. 3.4 Other Metals and Minerals - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon continued to rebound. The supply side is in a tight state, and with the boost of new policies, it is expected to continue to rebound [16][17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate futures oscillated widely, and the spot price rose slightly. Policy - related disturbances have not materialized, and lithium prices are oscillating [18][19]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices oscillated widely. Core inflation rose but was lower than expected. The cost side is expected to decline, and nickel prices are oscillating without clear guidance [20]. 3.5 Energy - Crude oil prices were weakly operating. Geopolitical risks may rise again, and the market is in shock. Investors should be cautious and wait and see in the short term [21]. 3.6 Steel - Steel futures oscillated downward. The Central Urban Work Conference did not meet expectations, and the demand is weak. Steel prices are expected to adjust [22][23]. 3.7 Iron Ore - Iron ore futures oscillated at a high level. The supply and demand are in a weak balance, and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [24]. 3.8 Agricultural Products - **Bean and Rapeseed Meal**: US soybean crushing volume in June was higher than expected, and the weather in the producing areas is good. The market may oscillate strongly [25][26]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil export demand declined in the first half of July. Palm oil may enter an oscillating adjustment phase [27][28].

关税大消息。 昨夜，美股三大指数涨跌不一，中概股集体大涨。纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨2.76%，万得中概科技龙头 指数上涨3.85%。 | 名称 | 现价 | | --- | --- | | 万得中概科技龙头指数 | 4025.89c 149.10 3.85% | | 纳斯达克中国金龙指数 | 7697.24c 206.98 2.76% | | 万得中概股100 | 98.92 3.58% 2860.22c | 中概科技龙头方面，百度集团、阿里巴巴涨超8%，京东集团涨超4%，拼多多、网易涨超2%。 特朗普宣布对印尼征收19%关税 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | BIDU | 百度集团 | 93.290 | 8.64% | | BABA | 阿里巴巴 | 117.000 | 8.11% | | JD | 京东集团 | 32.040 | 4.03% | | PDD | 拼多多 | 105.060 | 2.59% | | NTES | 网易 | 133.120 | 2.48% | | MPNGY | 美团-ADR | 30.800c | 1.3 ...