新华财经北京11月24日电德国11月商业信心意外下滑，这是一个新的迹象，表明尽管政府加大支出，但 克服经济停滞仍面临挑战。德国智库IFO公布的数据显示，德国11月IFO商业预期指数从上月的91.6降至 90.6，分析师此前预计读数将基本保持不变。 （文章来源：新华财经） IFO总裁Clemens Fuest称，"企业对当前形势的评估更为积极。"不过，由于制造业前景受到"严重打 击"，"他们对经济复苏会很快到来几乎没有信心"。这些数据凸显了人们对政府通过投资基础设施和国 防来恢复增长的计划的怀疑。尽管德国央行和大多数其他预测机构均预计，在经历了动荡的2025年之 后，第四季度的产出将出现增长，但一些机构最近下调了他们的预测。 ...

金融研究 2025年11月21日 星期五 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：11 月 20 日，A 股四大股指延续调整，其中上证指数下跌 0.4%，报收 3931.05 点；深成 指下跌 0.76%，报收 12980.82 点；创业板指下跌 1.12%，报收 3042.34 点；科创 50 指数下跌 1.24%， 报收 1328.19 点。市场成交 17,226 亿元，较前日减少 200 亿元。行业板块方面，建筑材料(+1.4%)， 综合(+0.87%)，银行(+0.86%)涨幅居前；美容护理(-2.39%)，煤炭(-2.1%)，电力设备(-1.96%)跌幅 居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IM>IC，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,452/150/3,846。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-156、-210、34、332 亿元，分别变动+23、-41、-24、+42 亿 元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 76.81、61.95、25.75 与 5.69 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-11.89%、-9.97%、-6.41%与-2.15%，三年期历史分 ...

2025年11月20日 星期四 金融研究 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 | | 市场表现：11 月 日，A 股四大股指涨跌不一，其中上证指数上涨 0.18%，报收 点；深 19 3946.74 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 成指下跌 0%，报收 13080.09 点；创业板指上涨 0.25%，报收 3076.85 点；科创 50 指数下跌 | | | | | | | | | | | | 0.97%，报收 1344.8 点。市场成交 17,427 亿元，较前日减少 2,033 亿元。行业板块方面，有色金 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 属(+2.39%)，石油石化(+1.67%)，国防军工(+1.11%)涨幅居前；综合(-3.08%)，房地产(-2.09%)， | | | | | | | 1,196/76/4,173。沪 | | | | | | 传媒(-1.72%)跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM，个股涨/ ...

今日A股市场呈现典型的结构性分化，三大指数涨跌互现，上证指数微跌0.04%，创业板指微涨0.12%， 市场整体情绪偏于谨慎。值得关注的是，两市成交额维持在1.44万亿元的高位，这清晰地表明，市场的 博弈焦点并非在于"离场"还是"进场"，而在于"结构"与"方向"。 本次市场分化的核心特征，是资金从高估值成长板块向低估值资源及防御板块的迁移。从申万一级行业 看，石油石化（+1.22%）、银行（+0.82%）等板块领涨，而医药生物、计算机等则跌幅居前。这一现 象的背后，是三重驱动逻辑在发挥作用： 此外，水产、中船系等主题板块的活跃，揭示了资金在寻找主线之外的α机会。中船系的走强，尤其值 得关注，它可能预示着市场对军工行业的认知，正从早期的主题炒作，转向对"十五五"规划订单实质落 地的预期。 中长期视角下，决定市场走向的仍是经济复苏的强度与产业升级的进程。当前的价值风格占优，是对宏 观环境的阶段性适应。待政策效果进一步显现，经济增长路径更加明确后，符合国家战略方向的科技成 长板块，在经过充分的估值消化后，有望重新引领市场。 投资寄语：市场的短期波动是群体情绪的映射，而长期价值则取决于企业内在的盈利能力。作为一名理 性 ...

本文作者为创金合信基金首席经济学家魏凤春 上期首席视点指出，宏观基础因子中的经济增长和流动性因子对风险资产配置并不算友好。从风险溢价 来看，海外投资者在期待新的刺激政策，我们判断这种期待在没有明确的信号出来之前形成交易的逻辑 为时尚早。从通胀因子看，价格，无论是PPI还是CPI确实给出了积极的信号。对这一信号，市场一度给 出了积极的回应，但大部分的投资者还是在担心这种积极信号的持续性。随着10月宏观数据的陆续公 布，投资者的情绪在进一步调整，叠加外部新的冲击的来临，年底前的市场又掀起了新的波澜。 在新的波澜面前，是被动地等待，还是积极地寻觅？机会总是留给那些积极准备的人的，积极地等待， 也就是谋定而后动是现实的策略。 一、市场回顾：并不是在等待戈多 从周度数据看，中国宏观经济的基本面和美国12月降息的不确定性以及日本首相不当言论引发的全球风 险溢价的陡然提升在大类资产的走势上映射得非常明显。商品中的焦煤，恒生科技以及科创50、创业 板、纳斯达克等权益资产下跌，与之对应，债券走势尚可。 从A股周度行业走势看，电子、电力设备、煤炭、通信等跌幅居前，几乎被投资者遗忘的综合、纺织服 装涨幅靠前，老树不开花也受到投资者 ...

周二收盘数据表面不惨： 沪指 3939.81，跌 0.81% 深成指 13080.49，跌 0.92% 创业板指 3069.22，跌 1.16% 但结构极其难看： 超4100股下跌，跌幅超3%的近800只 主力净流出接近千亿，放量下跌 跌停股集中在此前的高景气、高涨幅板块 杀跌核心有两条轴线： 1）周期股：化工、有色、钢铁、煤炭齐跌 化工、有色、钢铁、煤炭等周期板块普跌超过3%，云煤能源、宝泰隆等煤炭股跌停，有色中的海南矿业也被直接按跌停。 周期股权重大、体量大，一旦联动杀跌，对指数和情绪都是"双重踩踏"：既压指数，又打经济预期。 2）新能源与锂电池链：高位补跌、情绪踩踏 电池板块全天被按在地上摩擦，华盛锂电、海科新源等多股跌超10%，天际股份、璞泰来等前期明星股直接跌停。 宁德时代受大股东减持消息影响大跌逾3%，不仅拖累创业板指，也对整条新能源产业链形成预期打击。 周期+新能源这两大此前资金集中、估值高、仓位重的板块集体杀跌，本质是： 对前期"经济复苏+新能源长牛"这两大中期逻辑进行阶段性重定价。 对产业链上游的盈利预期和中游高估值的容忍度，同时下调。 二、周期股杀跌背后：经济预期与商品价格的联动信号 周期 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程市场策略报告 金融工程市场策略报告 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 18 日 分析师：徐忠亚 执业证书号：S1230523050001 xuzhongya@stocke.com.cn 物价回归，决战 2026 ——金融工程 2026 年度策略 核心观点 经济复苏、物价回归或将成为中国经济贯穿全年的核心叙事，看好 A 股进一步走强， 结构上先景气后质量，先周期后消费。此外，量化资金推动下，微盘股牛市或远未结 束。 ❑ 中国经济有望由筑底后期逐步转向复苏期，核心在于需求侧的三大超预期：美国 财政扩张超预期、出口上行超预期、地产供需格局改善带动内需修复超预期。 从宏观周期模型上看，目前我国经济处于筑底后期，且信用周期已经确认企稳， 有望逐步迈入复苏周期。我们判断，2026 年有望出现需求侧的三大超预期，助力 中国经济走向复苏： 1、美国财政扩张超预期：根据 CRFB 预测，在考虑关税收入影响后，美国政府 2026 财年赤字率将达 5.9%。不过，关税收入面临较大不确定性，无论是法律挑 战，还是特朗普反复提及的"关税分红" ，都可能对关税收入造成重大影响。若假 设关税收入清零，则美国赤字率 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 13, 2025, the central bank announced the financial statistics for October 2025. M2 increased by 8.2% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6.2% year - on - year. The stock of social financing scale at the end of October 2025 increased by 8.5% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first ten months of 2025 was 30.9 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1][12]. - The year - on - year growth rate of social financing in October was 8.50%, with the growth rate falling for three consecutive months. New social financing was 81.5 billion yuan, 58.08 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Government bond financing slowed down, and credit demand was weak [2][13]. - M1 declined, and the gap between M1 and M2 widened slightly. However, the M1 - M2 gap has been narrowing overall this year, which is an important signal of capital activation and can boost the sentiment of the equity market in the short term [3][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Social Financing Data Validates Bond Market Space - **Social Financing Growth Rate and Composition**: The year - on - year growth rate of social financing in October was 8.50%, with the growth rate falling for three consecutive months. New social financing was 81.5 billion yuan, 58.08 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Government bond net financing was 48.93 billion yuan, 56.02 billion yuan less than the same period last year. New RMB loans decreased by 2.01 billion yuan, 31.66 billion yuan more than the same period last year. In direct financing, corporate bond net financing was 24.69 billion yuan, 14.82 billion yuan more than the same period last year, and non - financial enterprise domestic stock financing was 6.96 billion yuan, 4.12 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The new non - standard financing decreased by 10.85 billion yuan, 3.58 billion yuan less than the same period last year [2][13]. - **Credit Demand**: New RMB loans by financial institutions in October were 22 billion yuan, 28 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Corporate loans increased by 35 billion yuan, 22 billion yuan more than the same period last year, with obvious bill impulse, and corporate medium - and long - term loans increased by 3 billion yuan, 14 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Resident loans decreased by 36.04 billion yuan, 52.04 billion yuan more than the same period last year, indicating weak demand in the real estate market [2][14]. 3.2 M1 - M2 Spread and Capital Activation - **M1 and M2 Trends**: In October, M2 increased by 8.20% year - on - year, down 0.2 percentage points, and M1 increased by 6.20% year - on - year, with the growth rate down 1.0 percentage point compared with the previous value. The absolute value of the M1 - M2 gap widened slightly to 2.00pct, but it has been narrowing overall this year, which is a signal of capital activation and can boost the equity market sentiment in the short term. The growth rate difference between social financing and M2 in October was 0.30pct [3][25]. - **Deposit Changes**: In October, household deposits decreased by 134 billion yuan, 77 billion yuan more than the same period last year; non - financial enterprise deposits decreased by 108.53 billion yuan, 35.53 billion yuan more than the same period last year; fiscal deposits increased by 72 billion yuan, 12.48 billion yuan more than the same period last year; non - banking financial institution deposits increased by 185 billion yuan, 77 billion yuan more than the same period last year, which may promote further capital activation [3][25]. 3.3 Investment Advice - **Equity Market**: The recent narrowing of the M1 - M2 gap is an important signal of capital activation, which can boost the equity market sentiment in the short term, but the sustainability of the rebound depends on fundamental improvement and policy coordination [4][35]. - **Bond Market**: The social financing data in October shows that the growth rate of social financing has declined. The data verifies the uncertainty of the economic recovery. The bond yield has declined recently, and there is still some room for further decline. In 2026, the central bank's monetary policy will continue the "moderately loose" tone. For the bond market, investors are advised to mainly conduct band operations on interest - rate bonds, pay attention to the structural opportunities of green bonds and technology bonds in credit bonds, dynamically adjust the stock - bond ratio, and pay attention to elastic assets such as pro - cyclical convertible bonds [4][38].

金融研究 2025年11月18日 星期二 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：11 月 17 日，A 股四大股指有所调整，其中上证指数下跌 0.46%，报收 3972.03 点；深成 指下跌 0.11%，报收 13202 点；创业板指下跌 0.2%，报收 3105.2 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.53%， 报收 1354.04 点。市场成交 19,303 亿元，较前日减少 501 亿元。行业板块方面，计算机(+1.67%)， 国防军工(+1.59%)，煤炭(+1.32%)涨幅居前；医药生物(-1.73%)，银行(-1.31%)，非银金融(-1.11%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,582/138/2,724。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-47、-121、-3、171 亿元，分别变动+332、+120、-133、-318 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 128.68、91.95、16.65 与 2.87 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-17.1%、-12.71%、-3.62%与-0.95%，三年期历 ...

Group 1: Consumer Trends - The jewelry sector, particularly gold, saw a significant year-on-year increase of 37.6% in October, marking it as a standout performer in consumer spending [2] - The surge in gold purchases is attributed to a more than 50% increase in international gold prices this year, currently stabilizing above $4,100 per ounce, leading consumers to invest in gold as a safe asset [4] - Overall retail sales in October increased by 2.9% year-on-year, with rural consumption growing at a faster rate of 4.1% compared to urban areas, indicating a shift in spending patterns [9] Group 2: Industrial and Manufacturing Insights - The industrial output for October rose by 4.9% year-on-year, with notable growth in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing at 8% and 7.2% respectively, outpacing overall industrial growth [11] - The manufacturing sector is transitioning towards high-tech production, as evidenced by increased investments in smart equipment and advanced production lines [12] Group 3: Investment and Economic Challenges - Fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, primarily due to a 14.7% drop in real estate development investment, highlighting ongoing challenges in the property market [14] - Excluding the real estate sector, national investment actually increased by 1.7%, with manufacturing investments continuing to grow [17] Group 4: Trade and Export Dynamics - In October, the total value of imports and exports rose by 0.1% year-on-year, with imports increasing by 1.4%, indicating a rise in domestic demand [20] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.1% year-on-year, but the rate of decline has slowed, suggesting a potential easing of deflationary pressures in the industrial sector [21] Group 5: Market Performance - The stock market has recently surpassed the 4,000-point mark, reflecting increased investor confidence and a shift of funds from savings to equity investments [23]