8月25日上午，A股市场高开后延续强势格局，双创指数展现显著弹性优势，市场量能持续放大，半日 成交突破2万亿元。稀土永磁板块受行业政策催化全线爆发，CPO概念与算力产业链延续强势，多只标 的再创历史新高，券商板块异动带动资金向低位补涨板块扩散，地产、白酒等板块迎来轮动机会。全市 场呈现普涨态势，上涨个股超2800只，科技成长主线与政策敏感型板块形成共振。 港股市场同步高开高走，科技板块与内房股领涨，有色金属板块受外围政策转向预期提振显著走强，南 向资金保持积极流入态势，市场交投活跃度进一步提升。 展望午后，市场有望延续高位震荡格局，随着量能持续释放，板块轮动特征或进一步显现。通信、有色 金属等周期板块与科技成长赛道的交替表现，将成为维系市场热度的关键。此外，随着赚钱效应扩散至 更多低位板块，市场上行空间有望进一步打开，但短期连续上涨后需警惕获利回吐压力。 主要指数表现 A股主要指数集体上扬，上证指数上涨0.86%报3858.59点，深证成指与创业板指分别上涨1.61%和 2.22%，科创50指数上涨2.35%，双创板块延续近期强势表现。全市场半日成交金额突破2.1万亿元，资 金参与热度维持高位，权益类ETF规 ...

金融研究 2025年8月25日 星期一 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 61.14、52.45、-9.8 与-9.39 点，基差年化收益率分别为 -5.93%、-5.49%、1.6%与 2.29%，三年期历史分位数分别为 58%、44%、75%及 76%。 交易策略：中长期，我们维持做多经济的判断，当下以股指做多头替代有一定超额，推荐逢低配置各 品种远期合约；短期市场有降温的迹象。 风险提示：外生宏观冲击、财政扩张进度不及预期、其他系统性冲击。 市场表现：8 月 22 日，国债期货收益率上行，活跃合约中，二债隐含利率 1.431，较前日上涨 0.4bps， 五债隐含利率 1.658，较前日上涨 1.68bps，十债隐含利率 1.786，较前日上涨 3.04bps，三十债隐 含利率 2.142，较前日上涨 1.08bps。 现券：目前活跃合约为 2512 合约，2 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 250006.IB，收益率变动+0.25bps， 对应净基差 0.02，IRR1.18%；5 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 250003.IB，收益率变动+0.5bps，对应净 国债期货 基差 0.082， ...

从2021年开始，我国经历了连续4年地产下行后的阵痛期，"经济的曙光何时才能到来"成了很多人心中 的疑问。想要走出经济的失速循环，通常需要经历债务消化、结构调整与重建信心这三步，也就是经典 的复苏三段理论。今天这个视频就让我们来详细分析经济复苏的三部曲，我们都分别进展到了哪里？又 遇到了哪些矛盾？ ...

Economic Growth Forecast - Brazil's GDP is projected to grow by 1% quarter-on-quarter and 4.2% year-on-year in the third quarter of this year [1] - The economic growth rate for September is expected to be 4.1% year-on-year, with a 12-month growth rate of 3.0% as of September [1] Sector Performance - Both the industrial and service sectors are anticipated to expand in the third quarter, with services benefiting from improved employment and a rebound in household consumption [1] - Industrial production is supported by stable energy supply and a rebound in certain manufacturing sectors, while the agricultural sector shows signs of slowing due to a cyclical decline in major crop harvests [1] Economic Drivers - Household consumption is expected to remain the primary driver of economic growth, with investment maintaining a positive outlook [1] - Export growth is anticipated to slow down due to weak global demand [1] Overall Economic Outlook - Despite high interest rates posing challenges for some sectors, the resilience of the labor market and supportive social policies may provide some economic support [1] - The research coordinator predicts that the economic performance in the third quarter reflects a continuous recovery throughout the year, with potential for moderate growth in the second half if external conditions stabilize and interest rates gradually decrease [1]

Report Overview - The report is a financial futures morning report from China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd., dated August 21, 2025, covering the performance of stock index and treasury bond futures markets and related economic data [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy, recommend allocating long - term contracts of various varieties on dips, and note short - term market cooling signs [2] - For treasury bond futures, with rising risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, suggest medium - to long - term hedging of T and TL contracts on rallies [2] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market Performance - On August 20, the four major A - share stock indexes opened lower and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.04% to 3766.21 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.89% to 11926.74 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.23% to 2607.65 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 3.23% to 1148.15 points. Market turnover was 2.4484 trillion yuan, a decrease of 192.3 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, beauty care (+2.42%), petroleum and petrochemicals (+2.36%), and electronics (+2.32%) led the gains; pharmaceutical and biological (-0.07%), household appliances (+0.12%), and real estate (+0.16%) led the losses [2] - From the perspective of market strength, IH > IF > IC > IM, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 3673/162/1585 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, major, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of - 12.5 billion, - 21.1 billion, - 1.1 billion, and 34.7 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +6.3 billion, +5.2 billion, - 0.8 billion, and - 10.7 billion yuan respectively [2] Basis and Trading Strategy - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 77.26, 69.87, 10, and - 4.21 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 7.15%, - 7.02%, - 1.58%, and 1% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 52%, 32%, 42%, and 57% respectively [2] - The trading strategy is to maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips; the short - term market shows signs of cooling [2] 2. Treasury Bond Futures Market Performance - On August 20, the yields of treasury bond futures rose. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.426, up 0.4 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.641, up 2.06 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.75, up 1.74 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 2.144, up 1.07 bps [2] - The current active contract is the 2509 contract. The CTD bond of the two - year treasury bond futures is 250006.IB, with a yield change of +0.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.02, and an IRR of 1.3%; the CTD bond of the five - year treasury bond futures is 240020.IB, with a yield change of +1.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.1, and an IRR of 0.24%; the CTD bond of the ten - year treasury bond futures is 250007.IB, with a yield change of +1.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.112, and an IRR of 0.08%; the CTD bond of the thirty - year treasury bond futures is 210005.IB, with a yield change of +1.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.101, and an IRR of 0.53% [2] - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 616 billion yuan and withdrew 118.5 billion yuan, with a net injection of 497.5 billion yuan [2] Trading Strategy - With rising risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium - to long - term [2] 3. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [8]

Group 1 - The central bank has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged for three consecutive months since its decline in May, indicating a careful timing of policy adjustments in a complex economic environment [1] - Current interest rates provide substantial support to the real economy, with new corporate loan rates around 3.2% and new personal housing loan rates at approximately 3.1%, reflecting a decrease of about 45 and 30 basis points year-on-year respectively [1] - The effects of previous low-interest rate policies are gradually being realized, as evidenced by the recovery in M1 growth, the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3700 points, and the total market capitalization of A-shares exceeding 100 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - In the context of uneven economic recovery, targeted tools are preferred over broad rate cuts to enhance policy effectiveness, avoiding inefficient capital allocation while injecting targeted momentum into specific weak areas [2] - Structural contradictions in the economy still leave room for future rate cuts, as there is a coexistence of insufficient domestic demand and excessive competition on the supply side, necessitating a moderately loose monetary policy to counterbalance these pressures [3] - The timing of potential rate cuts is crucial and should align with the pace of price recovery, as the central bank emphasizes promoting reasonable price increases as a key consideration for monetary policy [3]

Group 1 - Foreign investors' bond holdings in Ghana decreased from 17.5 billion Cedi at the end of 2023 to 13.4 billion Cedi by the end of 2024, representing a decline of 23.4% [1] - Conversely, foreign investors' equity securities holdings increased from 20.9 billion Cedi at the end of 2023 to 33.6 billion Cedi, marking a growth of 60.8%, attributed to improved stability in the Ghanaian stock market [1]

8月20日，央行披露最新一期的LPR（贷款市场报价利率）报价，如预期般，未有变化。 自5月下降以来，LPR已连续三个月维持不变。这表明央行正在复杂经济环境中对政策时机进行精准把 控，降息选项，也正在等待更契合经济修复节奏的发力窗口。 当前利率环境已为实体经济提供了充分支撑。7月新发放企业贷款利率约3.2%，新发放个人住房贷款利 率约3.1%，分别较去年同期下降约45个和30个基点。企业与居民获取资金的成本处于历史低位。从这 一视角看，信贷资源供给总体是充裕的。 从市场反馈看，前期低利率政策的效果正在逐步释放。M1增速回升显示企业经营活力增强，沪指站上 3700点、A股总市值突破100万亿元，更是宏观经济韧性与市场信心共振的直接体现。此时保持利率稳 定，既是对经济复苏势头的巩固，也是对过度宽松可能引发的资金空转、资产泡沫等风险的主动防范。 结构性工具的优先发力，进一步解释了当前暂不降息的政策逻辑。央行在二季度货币政策执行报告中明 确强调，落实落细适度宽松的货币政策，四篇专栏聚焦结构性支持的表述，清晰传递出下半年政策重 心。 在经济复苏不均衡的背景下，通过定向工具精准滴灌科技创新、小微企业、消费等领域，比总量降息 ...

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The decision was influenced by stagnant economic recovery in Q2 and anticipated further cooling of inflation [1] - Current inflation is near the upper limit of the RBNZ's target range (1% to 3%), with expectations of a decline to around 2% by mid-2026 [1] Group 2 - Since August 2024, the RBNZ has cumulatively reduced interest rates by 250 basis points, one of the largest reductions among major Western economies [2] - Global monetary policy remains divergent, with various central banks taking different stances on interest rates [2] - The Federal Reserve has maintained its current rates but is widely expected to initiate its first rate cut of the year in September [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy, recommend buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips, and note short - term market cooling signs [2] - For treasury bond futures, with rising risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, suggest long - term hedging of T and TL contracts on rallies [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On August 19th, the four major A - share stock indexes pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.02% to 3727.29 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.12% to 11821.63 points, the ChiNext Index fell 0.17% to 2601.74 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 1.12% to 1112.27 points. Market turnover was 2640.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 168.5 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, comprehensive (+3.48%), communication (+1.87%), and food and beverage (+1.04%) led the gains, while non - bank finance (-1.64%), national defense and military industry (-1.55%), and petroleum and petrochemical (-0.58%) led the losses. From the perspective of market strength, IM>IC>IF>IH. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2982/186/2252 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of - 18.8 billion, - 26.3 billion, - 0.3 billion, and 45.4 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 24.2 billion, - 7.2 billion, +6.5 billion, and +24.8 billion yuan respectively [2] - **Basis and Basis Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 116.25, 98.71, 11.97, and - 3.18 points respectively, and the basis annualized yields were - 10.56%, - 9.76%, - 1.87%, and 0.74% respectively. The three - year historical quantiles were 34%, 16%, 40%, and 53% respectively [2] - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium - to - long - term, maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy. Currently, using stock indexes as a long - term substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips. In the short - term, the market shows signs of cooling [2] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On August 19th, the yields of treasury bond futures pulled back. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.422, a decrease of 1.73 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.613, a decrease of 1.7 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.72, a decrease of 0.8 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 2.121, a decrease of 0.92 bps [2] - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2509 contract. The CTD bond of the two - year treasury bond futures is 250006.IB, with a yield change of - 1.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.02, and an IRR of 1.28%; the CTD bond of the five - year treasury bond futures is 240020.IB, with a yield change of - 1.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.029, and an IRR of 1.17%; the CTD bond of the ten - year treasury bond futures is 250007.IB, with a yield change of - 1.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.032, and an IRR of 1.13%; the CTD bond of the thirty - year treasury bond futures is 210005.IB, with a yield change of - 2.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.047, and an IRR of 2% [2] - **Funding Situation**: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 580.3 billion yuan and withdrew 114.6 billion yuan, with a net injection of 465.7 billion yuan [2] - **Trading Strategy**: With rising risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium - to - long - term [2] 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [9]