Economic Outlook Speech Focus - Payroll data is likely to be mentioned, mirroring previous speeches where it was highlighted [1] - Consumer spending is expected to be acknowledged due to its relevance to the economy [1] Topics Unlikely to be Addressed - A "Pardon Me / Sorry" remark is not anticipated, as it was a one-off occurrence [1] - A rate cut is unlikely to be discussed, as the Economic Outlook focuses on the overall economy, unlike FOMC meetings [1] - Artificial Intelligence (AI) is not expected to be a primary topic, as it is typically addressed during Q&A sessions [2]

分组1 - JP Morgan Chase plans to invest up to $10 billion over the next 10 years in sectors such as defense, aerospace, AI, quantum computing, energy technology, and advanced manufacturing as part of its security and resiliency initiatives [1] - The bank aims to facilitate $1.5 trillion in funding for companies deemed crucial [1] 分组2 - JP Morgan Chase and other major banks are set to kick off the earnings season, with JP Morgan's stock up 2.5% and other banks like Wells Fargo and Citigroup also showing positive movements [2] - Analysts express optimism for the upcoming earnings season, anticipating an acceleration in loan growth due to decreasing tariff tensions and potential Fed rate cuts [3][4] 分组3 - Expectations for improved credit quality among banks, with many analysts believing that concerns from earlier in the year have not materialized [6] - Consumer spending remains strong despite negative headlines, with actual spending patterns indicating resilience in the consumer sector [10][11] 分组4 - Large banks are expected to report strong fee income, while smaller banks may see improvements in net interest income as loan growth accelerates and deposit costs decrease [15][16] - Capital requirements for banks have decreased, allowing them to lean into loan growth and share buybacks, which could benefit stock performance [17][18]

UK household balance sheets are in their best shape for over two decades after a period of spending restraint. For politicians and the Bank of England, the question is: Will consumers now feel confident enough to loosen the purse strings? https://t.co/eigqTxQ16I ...

Jack-o-lanterns are just going up on porch stoops across the country, but the Christmas shopping season has already begun with sales this week at major retailers including Walmart WMT +0.07% , Amazon.com AMZN -4.99% -3.56% notched record closes again this week. Over the past month, the former has climbed nearly 3%, while the latter is up more than 4.5%. Meanwhile, the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund , and Target. Despite all the signs of holiday preparation, it's a scary time to be invested i ...

Bank of America Institute is out with its consumer checkpoint for October. Debit and credit card spending increased by 2% year-over-year. That was actually the largest increase since December of 2024.Gains were up on a month-over-month basis as well. And joining us right now for a closer look is Liz Everett Chrisberg. She is the head of Bank of America Institute.Um Liz, this is really interesting because just this week we got NRF data that suggested the consumer actually slowed down in September. Your data ...

Core Insights - Bank of America Institute's consumer checkpoint for October indicates a 2% year-over-year increase in debit and credit card spending, marking the largest increase since December 2024 [1] - The data reveals a divergence in spending growth between higher and lower income households, with lower income households increasing spending by 6.1% and higher income households by 2.6% [5][6] Spending Trends - Overall consumer spending is on an upward trend, driven primarily by services and gas, while retail spending has decreased slightly by 0.2% [2][4] - The analysis is based on actual spending data from nearly 70 million consumers, rather than survey responses, providing a close to real-time view of consumer behavior [4] Income Disparities - Spending growth is significantly higher among higher income households compared to lower income households, highlighting a "tale of two cities" in consumer spending [5][6] - Higher income households experienced a wage growth of 4% in September, the highest in four years, while lower income households saw a modest increase of 1.4% [10][11][12] Labor Market Insights - The labor market shows signs of fatigue, with payroll growth in September at just 0.5%, down from 1.7% at the beginning of the year and nearly 4% two years ago [9][10] - Despite the slowdown in employment growth, wages for employed households are increasing, particularly among higher income groups, which supports their spending [10][12] Market Influence - Higher income consumers are benefiting from wealth effects due to rising stock and housing markets, which in turn supports discretionary spending [12] - The data suggests that while the labor market is growing, it is doing so at a slower pace, yet higher income consumers continue to drive spending [14]

Got to start with that Nvidia news. The idea of uh Chinese regulators and the government cracking down on on chip imports of Nvidia's chips. Uh what that could mean for the broader markets especially considering the waiting of Nvidia.>> Yeah, I mean obviously it's not good news. I mean we we saw some of the the news uh about rare earths a couple days ago as well. I I think putting the screws uh to the US a little bit ahead of the next round of negotiations u makes a lot of sense.you know, as far as Nvidia, ...

Catherine Mann says interest rates should be held at their current level to combat inflation - Laura Zapata/Bloomberg' Britons “scarred” by years of high inflation are spending less and saving more, a Bank of England official has said. Catherine Mann, a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), said real terms household spending had flatlined since the pandemic and blamed the “scarring” effects of “high and volatile inflation”. Speaking at a Resolution Foundation event, Ms Mann sa ...

The CNBC NRF retail report is out right now. Steve Leeman joins us with the numbers. And Steve, what's the news.Good morning, Becky. Consumers hit the pause button in September after two months of uh good gains. According to the CNBC NRF Retail Monitor, hopes are that it's a pause that refreshes ahead of this approaching holiday season.Never too early to start thinking about that. The monitor, which is powered by real credit card spending data from Affinity Solutions, dropping 0.7% for total retail sales XO ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of rising import costs and tariffs on consumer behavior and retail sales during the crucial holiday shopping season, known as the Golden Quarter [1][2][20]. Retail Dynamics - Retailers are facing a challenging environment as they attempt to sell full-price merchandise while consumers are increasingly seeking deals due to higher prices [2][20]. - Companies like Nike Inc. and Elf Beauty Inc. have already raised prices, with Primark also adjusting prices in its US stores, indicating a broader trend of price increases across the retail sector [3][20]. - Walmart has reported rising costs each week as new supplies of imported goods arrive, reflecting the ongoing impact of tariffs on retail pricing [3][20]. Consumer Behavior - Despite a 3.5% increase in US retail sales in August, much of this was attributed to inflation, with underlying volume growth only at 0.4%, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [5][20]. - Consumers have adapted to rising prices by employing strategies such as buying private label goods, shopping at discount stores, and purchasing in bulk to save money [9][10][12][21]. - Shoppers are also substituting more expensive items with cheaper alternatives, which could affect holiday spending patterns [13][21]. Sales Projections - Overall sales in the final quarter are expected to increase by only 3.1%, the lowest growth in five years, factoring in inflation with a US CPI of 2.9% in August [15][21]. - Retailers may need to increase promotions to move inventory, which could lead to greater discounting and reduced profit margins as they absorb more of the tariff burden [14][15][21]. Economic Influences - Higher-income consumers have seen improved financial conditions due to a strong stock market, which may benefit luxury brands like LVMH [17][21]. - Consumer behavior may also shift unexpectedly during tough economic times, leading to increased holiday spending despite caution [18][21]. - However, ongoing tariff-driven price increases into the new year may dampen consumer sentiment once credit card bills arrive [19][21].