Retail analyst and expert Jan Rogers Niffin joining us now. Jan, you got my attention with one of your pieces the other day. Why do you think we should not fear the holidays.Well, Brian, this party might end early, too, but so far the punch bowl is still out. You know, I follow the CNBC NRF numbers really closely, and we had a pretty darn good October, almost 5%. down a little bit from September, which was almost 6%.But if we could take 5% right now and go home, we retailers would be thrilled. >> All right. ...

ToplineThe holiday season isn’t expected to be a bright one for Target this year after the retail giant reported tumbling third quarter profits and said it expects to see sales slump in the coming months, underscoring broader concerns about consumer spending heading into the holidays. A view of a Target store on March 5, 2025 in Novato, California.Getty ImagesKey FactsTarget, which saw its CEO step down in August before saying it would cut about 1,800 corporate jobs in October, on Wednesday said it expects ...

Core Insights - The company continues to observe healthy trends in both consumer and business spending, as indicated in their Q3 earnings call [1] - Key metrics are showing consistent growth, reflecting a positive macro environment for the company [1] - Data from the first two weeks of November suggests that these positive trends in consumer spending remain intact [2]

Financial Performance - Lowe's profit exceeded expectations [1] Market Trends - Consumer spending on home renovations contributed to Lowe's profit [1]

And right now we are 2 minutes away from the end of the trading day. Romaine Bostick alongside Katie Greifeld, taking you through to that closing bell with a global simulcast. It starts now.Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec joined us from the radio booth. Welcome to our audiences across all of our Bloomberg platforms, including our partnership with YouTube. A very consequential day in markets on a very consequential week.A big focus on earnings, a big focus on geopolitics in Washington, and of course, a big focus ...

Home Depot cut its full-year earnings guidance, warning that some unsteady consumers are hitting the pause button on big-ticket home purchases https://t.co/RPRc5tWhQy ...

Retail giants like Walmart, Home Depot, and Target, as you can see there, are scheduled to report their earnings throughout the course of the week as investors continue to gauge the state of the consumer. Our next guest says the outlook is bleak going into the holiday season as rising inflation weighs on the consumer health with lowincome consumers getting squeezed the absolute most. For more, let's bring in Jihan Ma, the senior analyst over at Bernstein, who covers many of these uh retailers.Jihan, thank y ...

Economic Overview - The recent government shutdown has created a significant data gap, complicating economic assessments and Federal Reserve decisions [1][2][10][11] - The return of government workers is expected to lead to a flood of economic data, which is crucial for market and policy analysis [2][12] Employment - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly jobs report is a key indicator of the labor market and household earnings, essential for forecasting economic activity [3] - The August jobs report indicated job gains fell to 22,000, missing the consensus of 75,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since 2021 [6] - The labor market's stability is under scrutiny, especially with rising unemployment risks highlighted by the Federal Reserve [6] Inflation - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a critical measure of price stability, with the latest report showing a year-over-year increase of 3.0%, driven by energy costs, while Core CPI also cooled to 3.0% [4][7] - The Federal Reserve's ability to make informed decisions is hindered by the lack of recent CPI data, particularly as inflation pressures may be easing [7][10] Retail Sales - Retail sales data is vital as consumer spending accounts for approximately 70% of the economy, with retail sales representing nearly one-third of that [5] - August retail sales exceeded expectations, rising 0.6% month-over-month, indicating underlying consumer momentum despite concerns over rising credit card debt and dwindling savings [7] Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - GDP is a key quarterly indicator of economic activity, with the second quarter showing a real GDP increase at an annual rate of 3.8%, surpassing the forecast of 3.3% [8][14] - The upcoming third-quarter GDP estimate will provide insights into economic momentum prior to the shutdown [14] Private Data Insights - Despite the shutdown, private data collection continued, suggesting a weak economic forecast, which may impact the interpretation of upcoming reports [9] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's recent decisions have been made without complete data, leading to a reactionary stance rather than a proactive approach [10][12] - The delay in data reporting increases the risk of policy errors as the Fed navigates a complex economic landscape [12]

Market Outlook - The market is currently experiencing weakness due to reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, but it does not necessarily need this cut to maintain momentum [2][3] - There is an optimistic outlook for profit cycles extending through 2026, supported by easier financial conditions and increased liquidity [3] Key Investment Areas - Significant capital expenditure (capex) is being observed, particularly in artificial intelligence and broader digital infrastructure, indicating potential for growth beyond just AI [4] - Consumer spending remains healthy, with notable contributions from the baby boomer demographic in sectors like travel, leisure, and entertainment, which is helping to mask weaknesses at the lower end of the market [4][5] Profit Momentum - Profit momentum is critical, especially for small-cap companies, and is expected to improve as the market moves into 2026 [8][9] - The current market environment presents opportunities to capitalize on weaknesses, as there is no fundamental news driving the downturn [6][9] International Investments - The company maintains a neutral stance on international investments, having closed out underweight positions earlier in the year, and is riding the momentum in both developed and emerging markets [12] - Growth is slowing in Europe and the UK, while Japan is showing signs of recovery, indicating a mixed international investment landscape [12][13]

Bank of America Institute has released the consumer checkpoint for November. Debit and credit spending saw its strongest gain since early 2024 at 2.4%. Joining us right now to break it all down is Bank of America Institutees Liz Everett Chrisberg.And Liz, thanks for coming in this morning. >> Of course. >> Uh just to remind people this is coming from information on how many different accounts we often we we're missing government data right now, but in a lot of ways you've got a broader data set than what th ...