Group 1: Yili Co., Ltd. (伊利股份) - Business Quality: In 2024, Yili's revenue is projected to be 115.8 billion, a decrease of 8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 6.011 billion, down 40% year-on-year [2][3] - Cost Pressure: Sales expenses reached 21.98 billion, accounting for 19% of revenue, significantly higher than R&D expenses of 870 million, leading to a net profit margin of only 7.33% [3][4] - Competitive Advantage: ROIC decreased from 9.5% in 2023 to 7%, indicating that Yili's competitive edge lies in channel management rather than product innovation [4] - Valuation Concerns: Current PE ratio is 22.5 based on 2024 net profit, with a warning that the dairy industry growth has slowed to single digits and high sales expense ratios may hinder profit growth [5] Group 2: Midea Group (美的集团) - Business Quality: In 2024, Midea's revenue is expected to be 409.1 billion, a 9.5% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 38.5 billion, up 14.3% year-on-year [9][10] - Cost Structure: Sales expenses of 38.75 billion account for 9.5% of revenue, which is 2.4 times higher than R&D expenses of 16.23 billion, raising questions about the sustainability of marketing-driven growth [10][11] - Growth Acceleration: In Q1 2025, revenue surged to 128.4 billion, a 20.6% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising 38% [12] - Valuation Analysis: Current PE ratio is approximately 14.5 based on 2024 net profit, with concerns about declining ROIC and potential risks from overseas revenue exposure [14] Group 3: Kweichow Moutai (贵州茅台) - Business Quality: Moutai's revenue grew by 10.54% and profit by 11.56% in Q1, showcasing its strong market position with a high gross margin of 91.93% and net margin of 52.27% [18][19] - Competitive Advantage: Moutai maintains a healthy inventory level of 0.5 months, significantly lower than competitors, indicating strong pricing power and market demand [19] - Valuation Insights: Current valuation based on a projected net profit of 93.485 billion in 2025 suggests a PE ratio of around 20, which is considered reasonable given its ability to outperform inflation [20] - Extreme Scenario Analysis: Moutai's pricing power allows it to maintain positive revenue growth even in adverse market conditions, supported by strong cash flow [21]

Financial Performance - The company reported total revenue of 290 million yuan for Q1 2025, a decrease of 8.04% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 53.26 million yuan, down 47.04% compared to the same period last year [1] - The gross margin was 49.41%, reflecting a decline of 5.43% year-on-year, while the net profit margin dropped to 18.62%, down 42.21% [1] - Total expenses (selling, administrative, and financial) amounted to 55.56 million yuan, representing 19.17% of total revenue, an increase of 94.99% year-on-year [1] - Earnings per share decreased to 0.42 yuan, a decline of 47.04% year-on-year [1] Financial Ratios and Metrics - The company's return on invested capital (ROIC) was 11.55%, indicating average capital returns [3] - The net profit margin for the previous year was 25.2%, suggesting high added value for products or services [3] - The company has a healthy cash asset position, with a significant amount of cash on hand [3] - The ratio of accounts receivable to profit reached 80.67%, indicating a need for attention in accounts receivable management [3] Shareholder Information - The company has raised a total of 1.098 billion yuan since its listing and has distributed 489 million yuan in dividends, resulting in a dividend-to-financing ratio of 0.45 [3] - The estimated dividend yield is 5.23% [3] - The largest fund holding shares in the company is the Industrial Bank Specialized New Mixed A Fund, which has increased its holdings to 190,200 shares [3]

| 报告日期 机构简称 研究员 | | 近三年业绩 | 研报数 覆盖时长 | | | 2024预测 | 2025预测 | | 2026预测 | 目标价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 预测准确度 | | | | 净利润（元） | 净利润（元） | | 净利润（元） | (元) | | 2024-11-11 东北证券 王凤华 | | 78.30% | 2 | 未満1年 | 1.69亿 | | | 2.271Z | 2.9067 | | | 2024-10-28 中航证券 王青青 | | | | | | 1.61亿 | | 1.97亿 | 2.371Z | | | 2024-10-27 华金证券 | 李東 | | | | | 1.72亿 | | 2.27 亿 | 3.05 Z | | 本次财报公布的各项数据指标表现尚佳。其中，毛利率36.35%，同比减9.36%，净利率18.26%，同比增 3.14%，销售费用、管理费用、财务费用总计7558.26万元，三费占营收比7.87%，同比增0.36%， ...