证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 周大生(002867.SZ) 投资评级 买入 上次评级 买入 蔡昕妤 商社分析师 执业编号：S1500523060001 联系电话：13921189535 邮 箱：caixinyu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 周大生(002867.SZ)25Q2 点评：收入降幅环比 收窄，利润实现较好增长 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 28 日 [Table_Author] [Table_OtherReport] 少。25H1 投资收益 0.16 亿元，24H1 为-0.55 亿元，主要为黄金租赁业务 到期归还所形成的投资损益以及对联营企业所形成的股权投资损益。 [Table_S 事件：公司ummar发布y] 25H1 业绩，实现收入 45.97 亿元，同降 43.9%，归母净利 润 5.94 亿元，同降 1.27% ...

2Q25 业绩基本符合市场预期 因行业需求承压，我们下调2025/26 年收入5.4/5.4%至885.45/927.17 亿元，下调归母净利润9.9/9.0%至 301.26/321.33 亿元，因行业估值中枢上移，维持目标价174 元，对应25/26 年22.4/21.0X 市盈率，当前 股价对应16.3/15.3X 市盈率，较目标价有37.4%上行空间，维持跑赢行业评级。 风险 宏观经济恢复不及预期，普五批价提升不及预期。 公司公布2Q25 业绩：1H25 收入约527.71 亿元，同比4.19%；归母净利润约194.92 亿元，同比2.28%。 2Q25 收入158.31 亿元，同比0.10%；归母净利润46.32 亿元，同比约-7.58％。业绩符合市场预期。 发展趋势 公司上半年直营渠道及低度产品表现较好，2Q25 销售收现表现突出。分产品看：1H25 五粮液产品营收 409.98 亿元，同比+4.57%，其中量/价分别同比+12.75%/-7.25%，主要系普五直营渠道贡献增量，经销 渠道维持减量，同时1618+低度相对增速亦快于平均，对应1H25 五粮液产品毛利率同比-0.25ppt；系列 酒1 ...

报告指，公司将2025财年收入增长指引下调至个位数，原指引为双位数，但维持核心净利润双位数增长 指引，显示出利润率改善。公司宣布100%派息比率，股息率 为5.1%。公司股价昨日(27日)下跌9%，该 行认为提供了良好的入场机会，考虑到其高于同行的增长、多元化布局以及作为国企的吸引力股息率。 智通财经APP获悉，招银国际发布研报称，华润万象生活(01209)上半年核心净利润同比增长15%，符合 预期，收入同比增长7%，略低于预期。核心业务购物中心营运表现稳健，收入增长19%，毛利率提升6 个百分点，毛利贡献占比达到68%创新高。该行对华润万象生活目标价由45.27港元下调至43.86港元， 反映盈利修订。维持"买入"评级。 ...

公司研究丨点评报告丨成都银行（601838.SH） [Table_Title] 业绩加速好于预期，不良生成率降至近年新 低——2025 年中报点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 上半年营收同比增速+5.9%，归母净利润同比增速+7.3%，业绩增速回升好于预期。上半年利 息净收入增速+7.6%（Q1 增速+3.7%），增速回升主要反映净息差企稳+贷款高速扩表。上半年 末总资产较期初增长 9.8%，其中贷款较期初增长 12.4%，上半年增量 921 亿同比多增，上半 年末一般对公贷款较期初大幅增长 11.1%，主要政信类业务拉动。上半年净息差 1.62%，较 2024 全年下降 4BP，测算较 Q1 企稳。上半年末不良率环比稳定于 0.66%，拨备覆盖率环比- 3pct 至 453%。上半年不良净生成率降至 0.18%，为近年新低。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 丨证券研究报告丨 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 ...

据证券之星公开数据整理，近期中国外运（601598）发布2025年中报。截至本报告期末，公司营业总收 入505.23亿元，同比下降10.42%，归母净利润19.47亿元，同比上升0.08%。按单季度数据看，第二季度 营业总收入267.51亿元，同比下降16.66%，第二季度归母净利润13.02亿元，同比上升14.05%。本报告 期中国外运盈利能力上升，毛利率同比增幅19.16%，净利率同比增幅13.76%。 本次财报公布的各项数据指标表现一般。其中，毛利率6.14%，同比增19.13%，净利率4.21%，同比增 13.8%，销售费用、管理费用、财务费用总计20.6亿元，三费占营收比4.08%，同比增8.65%，每股净资 产5.51元，同比增4.1%，每股经营性现金流0.02元，同比增110.17%，每股收益0.27元，同比增0.97% | 项目 | 2024年中报 | 2025年中报 | 同比增幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(元) | 564亿 | 505.23 Z | -10.42% | | 归母净利润(元) | 19.45 Z | 19.47 Z | 0.08% ...

一、政策东风下的银行狂欢 最近朋友圈里都在讨论银行股，农行、浦发这些大块头居然能涨40%，简直让人怀疑人生。我那个做会计的老同学昨天还问我："银行股都破净了这么多 年，怎么突然就香了？"这话让我想起三年前白酒崩盘时，同样一群人喊着"估值见底"冲进去接飞刀的场景。市场永远在教我们做人，只是大多数人总学不 会。 监管层这轮组合拳打得漂亮。保险新会计准则这个"魔术棒"轻轻一挥，就让险资对银行股的持仓暴增126亿。仔细看条款才明白玄机：持股超5%且股价低于 净资产时，差价能直接计入当年利润。平安人寿8次举牌邮储、招行H股的疯狂举动，在会计规则下突然变得合情合理。 天风证券那737亿增量资金的预测更让人心惊。在利率下行的年代，4%-6%的股息率就像黑暗中的萤火虫，大资金不扑上去才怪。但普通投资者后知后觉 时，龙头银行早已涨了四成。这让我想起彼得·林奇那句名言："机构投资者总是在散户反应过来前完成布局。" 二、估值幻觉与认知陷阱 很多人把"低买高卖"挂在嘴边，却陷入估值陷阱不能自拔。三年前白酒市盈率跌到25倍时，多少大V喊着"历史大底"？结果呢？估值这东西就像哈哈镜，站 在不同位置看到的景象天差地别。 我用的那套量化系统 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown significant upward movement, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3800 points and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index rising over 8%, marking a three-year high. Key sectors such as computing power, semiconductors, and securities have led the gains, with notable stocks like Cambrian and CloudWalk hitting their daily limits [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 22, the A-share market experienced a strong rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching above 3800 points and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index increasing by over 8% [1]. - The computing power sector saw a broad surge, with stocks like CloudWalk hitting their daily limit, while semiconductor and securities sectors also performed well [1][2]. Group 2: Dividend Announcements - As of August 21, over 200 A-share companies have announced mid-term dividend plans, totaling over 130 billion yuan, with 14 companies planning dividends exceeding 1 billion yuan [3][5]. - China Mobile leads with a proposed dividend of 54.083 billion yuan, followed by China Telecom at 16.581 billion yuan, and China Petroleum at 10.67 billion yuan [5][6]. Group 3: High Dividend Companies - Notably, 15 companies have announced dividend ratios exceeding 100%, with Shuoshi Biological's ratio reaching an extraordinary 7142.28%, despite a net profit of only 399 million yuan [11][12]. - Companies like Jibite and Fuyou Glass have also reported significant dividends, with Jibite proposing a cash dividend of 66 yuan per 10 shares, amounting to 4.74 billion yuan [6][7]. Group 4: Dividend Yield - As of August 21, 60 companies have a dividend yield exceeding 3%, with 20 companies yielding over 5%. Notably, Thinking Control has a yield of over 10% [13][14]. - The dividend yield reflects the company's profitability and cash flow stability, indicating a potential for sustainable dividends [15].

Group 1 - The classic dividend indices, such as the Shanghai Dividend Index and the CSI Dividend Index, rely on dividend yield for stock selection [2] - In recent years, dividend indices have been evolving continuously [3] - Dividend yield is calculated as dividends divided by market capitalization, indicating that the evolution focuses on either dividends or market value (stock price) [4] Group 2 - There are currently three main categories of dividend indices: 1. Dividend + Leader: Companies that are industry leaders with strong competitive advantages and stable dividends [5] 2. Dividend + Quality: Companies with high Return on Equity (ROE) and high dividends, indicating strong profitability and stable dividends [5] 3. Dividend + Growth: Companies with sustained profit growth and increasing dividends [5] - In overseas markets, there are dividend aristocrat indices that select companies with a history of increasing dividends for 10-20 consecutive years, which are not yet present in the domestic market [6] Group 3 - There are stock selection criteria based on industry or company type: 1. Dividend + Industry: For example, consumer dividends, as the consumer sector generally has stronger profitability and stable dividends compared to other sectors [7] 2. Dividend + State-Owned Enterprises: Central and state-owned enterprises have strong competitive advantages in society and stable dividends [7] - The underlying goal of these criteria is to select companies with stable profitability, which in turn leads to more stable dividends [7] Group 4 - There are also criteria based on market value volatility: - Dividend + Low Volatility: In cases of equal returns, lower volatility enhances the investor experience [8]

Group 1 - A-shares have accelerated upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the high of 3731.69 points from February 2021, reaching 3741.29 points, marking a new high since August 2015 [1] - Since the beginning of 2025, global stock markets have shown strong performance, with the Korean Composite Index rising by 32.4%, the Hang Seng Index by 25.6%, and the German DAX by 22.1% [1] - The current low-risk interest rate environment, with the 10-year government bond yield between 1.65% and 1.80%, has driven A-share market performance, supported by dividend advantages and policy-driven capital inflows [1] Group 2 - The dynamic price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the CSI 300 Index and the SSE 50 Index are currently 13.5 times and 11.6 times, respectively, which are at the 75% to 85% historical percentile levels [2] - Compared to major overseas indices, A-share core indices have relatively low absolute P/E ratios, with the S&P 500 at 28.6 times and the FTSE 100 at 20 times [2] - The ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index have P/E ratios of 37.1 times and 149.5 times, respectively, indicating that domestic technology and growth sectors do not have a significant valuation advantage compared to overseas counterparts [2] Group 3 - The risk premium for the CSI 300 Index is currently at 5.6%, which is at a high historical percentile of 64.7%, indicating a favorable investment return compared to government bonds [3] - The dividend yield for the CSI 300 Index is 2.69%, which is at the 68.1% historical percentile, suggesting attractive dividend returns for core A-share assets [3] - Historical trends show that a declining dividend yield often accompanies a strengthening market, and the current yield remains significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield [4] Group 4 - The current low interest rate environment enhances the attractiveness of A-shares for institutional investors seeking stable returns, with potential for significant upward movement in the CSI 300 Index if valuations align with overseas markets [4] - If the dividend yield of the CSI 300 Index approaches the current risk-free rate of around 1.75%, it could correspond to an index level of 6500 points, indicating substantial upside potential [4] - The analysis suggests that the current A-share market rally is primarily driven by valuation, with strong dividend appeal and policy support for capital inflows [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rise of the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3700 points, and questions whether this indicates a market peak or if investment opportunities still exist [2][3]. Market Valuation Comparison - The A-share market has shown a significant increase, but comparisons with past bear market levels suggest that while it may seem expensive, it is essential to evaluate against other asset classes like bonds [3]. - The equity risk premium indicates that stocks remain competitively priced compared to bonds, with current levels around the median of the past five years [4]. - The dividend yield of the A-share market suggests that, under conservative assumptions, the overall valuation is not significantly overvalued, remaining around the five-year average [6]. Signs of Market Overheating - There are emerging signs of "overheating" in specific sectors, with the overall dynamic PE ratio of A-shares at 21 times, and certain indices like the Sci-Tech 50 and CSI 2000 showing PE ratios around 140 times, indicating potential overvaluation [7][10]. Historical Insights - The article reflects on the 2015 bull market, highlighting that many investors who chased small-cap stocks at their peak did not achieve favorable outcomes, while quality leading companies have shown resilience and value creation over time [14]. - It emphasizes the importance of understanding market mechanisms and risks, particularly in different markets like Hong Kong, where mechanisms such as short selling can introduce additional risks for investors [14]. Investment Strategies - The article advocates for a diversified asset allocation strategy, focusing on quality funds and maintaining liquidity to manage risks and seize opportunities during market corrections [18][19]. - It suggests that investors should consider systematic investment plans (SIPs) to mitigate the impact of market volatility and average investment costs over time [19][20].