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大行评级丨摩根大通:非寿险承保周期已见顶 下调中国财险及人保评级至“中性”
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-14 02:54
摩根大通发表内险股报告指,中国财险及中国人民保险集团受惠非寿险承保多年改善,并对比寿险险企 有较低投资账本风险,导致两者股价过去四年分别上升1.37及1.7倍,对比恒指同期升8%。该行建议投 资者现在获利,并把两者投资评级由"增持"降至"中性",认为非寿险承保周期已见顶,进一步上行催化 剂有限。 相反,该行认为内地寿险股正处于每股盈利与派息预期上调周期,偏好中国人寿及中国平安,分别基于 每股盈利预测修正及股息率,认为寿险险企基数效应为季度盈利增长数字提供缓冲,建议投资者关注盈 测调整多于第三季业绩。该行又指,过去3个月,市场对寿险险企今明两年每股盈利预测分别上调14% 及11%。 ...
建信基金:投资全球权益市场,主要看哪些指标?
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-10-10 09:38
专题:北京公募基金高质量发展系列活动 新时代、新基金、新价值 名人名言 如果你想寻找非比寻常的交易,不能只在本国股市寻找,要到处寻觅。 数据来源:Wind,截至 日期:2025.9.8。 ——全球传奇逆向投资大师约翰·邓普顿 为何要投资全球权益市场? 在全球化经济格局下,单一国家或区域的权益市场往往受限于本地经济周期、产业结构单一性及地缘政 策波动,难以实现长期稳健的收益增长。投资全球权益市场,正是突破这一局限的关键选择,通过覆盖 不同经济体,既能精准捕捉各区域的差异化增长机遇,避免因单一市场行业集中导致的收益短板;又能 借助不同地域股市的低相关性,对冲局部风险冲击。长期来看,全球权益市场涵盖了更多具备全球竞争 力的优质企业,能更全面地分享全球经济增长的红利,为财富的长期保值增值筑牢基础。 投资全球权益市场看什么?——估值 投资全球权益市场时,"估值"是判断资产性价比、平衡风险与收益的核心标尺,它的本质是衡量"市场 价格"与"资产内在价值"的匹配度,尤其在跨地域、跨行业的全球配置中,估值更是筛选优质标的、对 比不同市场吸引力的关键工具之一。 具体来看,估值包含市盈率和市净率,它们就如同两把不同的尺子,一把量时 ...
机构上调评级+低PE,18只个股上榜!股息率最高在7%以上
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-08 00:50
Core Insights - Institutional upgrades in ratings indicate a positive market outlook for related assets or companies, suggesting good growth potential and investment value [1] Group 1: Institutional Upgrades - As of September 2025, 41 stocks received upgrades from institutions, with several leading companies from various sectors included [1] - Traditional industry leaders such as Yangtze Power, Huaneng Hydropower, Guotou Power, Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Yanzhou Coal Mining are among those upgraded [1] - Emerging industry leaders like BAIC BluePark and Xinzhou Bang also made the list [1] Group 2: Valuation Metrics - As of September 30, 2025, 18 stocks had a rolling price-to-earnings (PE) ratio below 30, with 6 stocks having a PE ratio under 15, including Yanzhou Coal Mining, Boss Electric, Hailide, Yuntu Holdings, Zhou Dazheng, and Anhui Hefei [1] Group 3: Dividend Yields - The highest dividend yield over the past 12 months was recorded by Pingmei Shenma, reaching 7.25% as of September 30, 2025 [1]
A股市场快照:宽基指数每日投资动态-20250929
Jianghai Securities· 2025-09-29 13:12
A 股市场快照:宽基指数每日投资动 和中证 2000(-1.55%)跌幅最大。当年涨跌情况,创业板指(47.16%)涨幅最大, 其次是中证 2000(30.22%)和中证 500(26.46%),中证 1000(24.17%)和中证全 指(21.27%)涨幅缩小,而上证 50(9.54%)涨幅最小。另外,创业板指连续八周 连阳。 ◆均线比较:除上证 50,其余跟踪指数全部跌破 5 日均线,中证 1000 和中证全指 跌破 10 日均线,上证 50 和中证 2000 跌破 20 日均线。各跟踪指数已远离近 250 日 高位超过 1%。 证券研究报告·金融工程报告 2025 年 9 月 29 日 江海证券研究发展部 金融工程定期报告 金融工程研究组 A 股市场快照:宽基指数每日投资动态 2025.09.29 ◆市场表现:2025 年 9 月 26 日, 各宽基指数(表 1)全部下跌,其中创业板指(-2.6%) 投资要点: 分析师:梁俊炜 执业证书编号:S1410524090001 相关研究报告 态 2025.09.26 A 股市场快照:宽基指数每日投资动 态 2025.09.25 A 股市场快照:宽基指数每日投资 ...
【格力电器(000651.SZ)】股息率超7%彰显价值底蕴——动态跟踪报告(洪吉然)
光大证券研究· 2025-09-25 23:06
点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明: 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写,仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户,用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户,请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限,若给您造成不便,敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 ①国补收缩后品牌纷纷提价。对比8月和6月,线上品牌提价幅度排名:华凌18%>美的16%>奥克斯15% >小米12%>格力11%>海尔9%>统帅4%。公司提价幅度平稳,交易平均价格上升,利于公司收回市场份 额。②线上2100元以下空调销量占比回落。6月线上全行业57%销量的价格低于2100元,8月这一数字回落 至44%,由于格力空调定位中高端,价格区间上升有利于公司。③公司线上增长有韧性。8月份公司线上零 售量同比增长21%,行业同比增长2%;1-8月,公司线上零售量同比增长23%,线上零售价格同比增长 1%。 海外:公司出海东南亚进程加速 事件: 公司于9月2日晚间公告5%以上股东京海互联,基于对公司未来发展前景的信心和对公司价值的认可 ...
阳光保险(06963.HK):兼具NBV成长性、业绩稳定性、利差表现改善三重特征
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-24 03:53
Group 1 - The company is expected to achieve a year-on-year increase of 45.8% in net profit attributable to shareholders, reaching 5.449 billion yuan in 2024, with a steady profit performance in the first half of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.8% to 3.389 billion yuan [1] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio of 40.1% in 2024, ranking first among listed insurance companies, with a calculated dividend yield of 5.4%, placing it second in the industry [1] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, with an anticipated increase in focus on per-share dividend growth in the upcoming period, highlighting its high dividend characteristics [1] Group 2 - The company has shown strong resilience and growth in its individual insurance business, with a year-on-year increase in new business value (NBV) of 44.2% and 43.3% for 2023 and 2024, respectively, and a 47.3% increase in the first half of 2025, reaching 4.008 billion yuan [2] - The bancassurance channel remains a traditional advantage for the company, benefiting significantly from the "reporting and operation integration," with channel NBV growth of 6.4 percentage points and 7.2 percentage points in 2024 and the first half of 2025, respectively [2] - The contribution of the bancassurance channel to total NBV is significantly higher than that of other listed insurance companies, with a total NBV of 2.868 billion yuan and 2.452 billion yuan in 2024 and the first half of 2025, respectively [2] Group 3 - The company has seen a significant decline in liability costs, with a year-on-year decrease in NBV to effective business value ratio of 80 basis points and 11 basis points, reaching 2.91% and 2.85% in 2024, respectively [3] - The net investment yield and the difference between NBV and effective business value yield are expected to improve, with year-on-year increases of 100 basis points and 31 basis points, respectively [3] - The company is focused on asset-liability matching and controlling liability costs, launching dividend-type products with predetermined rates of 1.75% and 1.5% in the second quarter of 2025 to support stable operations [3] Group 4 - The company has increased its equity allocation in the secondary market, with a rise of 1.28 percentage points to 15.1% as of June, and a stock allocation level that continues to improve, reaching 14.1% [4] - The proportion of FVOCI stocks has increased by 1.4 percentage points to 70.38%, significantly higher than that of peers [4] - The company’s Contractual Service Margin (CSM) has shown steady growth, with a year-on-year increase of 12.6% to 50.9 billion yuan, maintaining a stable amortization speed [4]
申万宏源:维持阳光保险“买入”评级 目标价5.35港元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-24 01:59
申万宏源发布研报称,预计阳光保险(06963)25-27年归母净利润分别达57.34/60.56/67.88亿元(此前预计 25E为80.48亿元,调降预期主因为FVOCI股票占比较高),同比+5.2%/+5.6%/+12.1%,结合绝对、相对 估值法测算公司价值为573亿元人民币,目标价5.35港元/股,维持"买入"评级。 持续增配股票,FVOCI股票占比超七成,CSM增速稳健,业绩稳定性优于同业 截至6月末,公司二级市场权益配置比例较24年末提升1.28pct至15.1%;其中股票配置水平在高于同业 的基础上持续提升,配置比例较2024年末+1.8pct至14.1%,分类为FVOCI的股票占比较24年末水平 +1.4pct至70.38%,显著高于同业。CSM稳步增长,截至24年末,CSMyoy+12.6%至509亿元,在部分同 业规模下降态势下增速稳健;CSM摊销速度稳定,2024年CSM摊销规模为40.56亿元,摊销比率为 8.45%,保险服务业绩基本盘稳固。 风险提示:长端利率下行、权益市场波动、大灾频发、监管政策影响超预期。 NBV增幅居前,银保渠道秉承高质量发展策略,优势有望持续显现 公司人身险业 ...
基本功 | 都是红利资产,为啥港股的股息率明显优于A股?
中泰证券资管· 2025-09-23 11:32
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of solid foundational knowledge in investing and selecting the right funds to enhance investment success [2] - The article discusses why Hong Kong stocks exhibit a significantly higher dividend yield compared to A-shares, attributing this to factors such as investor structure and valuation differences [3] - The formula for dividend yield is provided, which is calculated as total cash dividends divided by total market value, further broken down into net profit multiplied by dividend payout ratio divided by total market value, equating to dividend payout ratio divided by price-to-earnings ratio [3]
A股市场快照:宽基指数每日投资动态-20250922
Jianghai Securities· 2025-09-22 07:31
The provided content does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors, nor does it detail their construction, evaluation, or backtesting results. The report primarily focuses on descriptive statistics and market analysis of broad-based indices in the A-share market, including metrics such as risk premium, PE-TTM, dividend yield, and turnover rates. Below is a summary of the key points extracted from the content: Quantitative Analysis and Metrics - **Market Performance**: The report tracks the performance of broad-based indices such as the CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and others, analyzing daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly returns[1][10][12] - **Moving Averages**: All indices have fallen below their 5-day moving averages, with the ChiNext Index showing the most significant distance from its moving average support levels[15][17] - **Turnover Rates**: The CSI 2000 has the highest turnover rate (4.56), while the CSI 1000 and ChiNext Index follow with 3.06 and 3.28, respectively[19][20] - **Risk Premium**: The CSI 300 and ChiNext Index exhibit high 5-year percentile risk premiums (54.52% and 47.62%), while the CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 show lower values (31.11% and 24.21%)[31][32][33] - **PE-TTM**: The CSI 500 and CSI All Share Index have the highest 5-year PE-TTM percentiles (99.75% and 96.61%), while the ChiNext Index has a relatively lower percentile (59.5%)[43][45][46] - **Dividend Yield**: The ChiNext Index and CSI 1000 have the highest 5-year dividend yield percentiles (66.03% and 44.46%), while the CSI 500 and CSI 2000 have the lowest (14.88% and 13.14%)[55][56] - **Break-even Rates**: The ChiNext Index has the lowest break-even rate (1.0%), while the CSI 2000 and CSI 1000 follow with 3.35% and 7.4%, respectively[57] Observations on Statistical Distributions - **Kurtosis and Skewness**: The ChiNext Index has the highest kurtosis and skewness, indicating a higher concentration of returns and a greater likelihood of extreme positive returns. Conversely, the CSI 2000 has the lowest values, suggesting a more dispersed return distribution[26][27] Risk Premium Analysis - **Volatility Trends**: The risk premium of indices like the CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 shows significant volatility, with notable spikes in September 2024 and April 2025 due to external events[30][31] - **Distribution Characteristics**: The CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and ChiNext Index exhibit more dispersed risk premium distributions, indicating higher uncertainty compared to indices like the SSE 50 and CSI 300, which have more concentrated distributions[36][37] PE-TTM and Valuation - **Historical Trends**: The PE-TTM values of most indices have shown a sharp increase since September 2024, with the CSI 500 and CSI All Share Index reaching the highest valuation levels relative to their historical ranges[41][43][45] - **Investment Implications**: The report highlights that no indices currently exceed their 80% valuation opportunity threshold, with the CSI 500 falling below its 20% danger threshold[48] Dividend Yield Analysis - **Historical Context**: The ChiNext Index and CSI 1000 have the highest historical dividend yield percentiles, suggesting their attractiveness in terms of cash flow returns. In contrast, the CSI 500 and CSI 2000 have the lowest percentiles, indicating less favorable dividend yields[55][56] Break-even Rates - **Current Levels**: The ChiNext Index has the lowest break-even rate, reflecting a more optimistic market valuation, while the CSI 2000 and CSI 1000 have slightly higher rates, indicating relatively lower market confidence[57] This report does not include specific quantitative models or factors, nor does it provide detailed construction methodologies, formulas, or backtesting results. Instead, it focuses on descriptive metrics and their implications for market analysis.
国泰海通:维持安徽皖通高速公路“增持”评级 目标价14.51港元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-22 07:29
Core Viewpoint - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anhui Wantuo Expressway (600012) due to significant earnings growth from the acquisition of group road assets and the accelerated recovery of toll income following the expansion of Xuan-Guan Expressway [1] Group 1: Earnings and Financial Performance - The completion of the acquisition of group road assets in Q1 2025 significantly enhances earnings, with the company reporting a net profit of 960 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a 4% year-on-year growth [2] - Toll revenue has shown a notable increase, recovering to 90% of pre-expansion levels, with a 13% year-on-year growth in toll fees, driven by the accelerated recovery of toll income in Q2 [2] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - The stock price has been under pressure due to a planned reduction of shares by a major shareholder, which coincides with changes in market risk appetite, although this does not alter the long-term value of the company [3] - The company maintains a strong return on equity (ROE) of 10-13%, indicating robust profitability compared to industry peers [3] Group 3: Dividend Policy - The company has committed to a high dividend policy, ensuring that cash dividends will not be less than 60% of net profit from 2025 to 2027, with estimated dividend yields of 6.4%, 6.5%, and 6.1% for the respective years [4] - The stable cash flow and certainty of dividends position the company favorably within the transportation industry [4]