Core Viewpoint - The disappearance of data is critically timed, impacting decision-making and analysis in the industry [1] Group 1 - The current situation highlights the challenges faced by companies relying on data for strategic planning and operational efficiency [1] - The absence of reliable data can lead to significant setbacks in forecasting and performance evaluation [1] - Companies may need to adapt their strategies to cope with the lack of available information [1]

The first rate cut of the year gives investors the opportunity to position their portfolios to capture future upside in certain sectors, should further cuts occur. History has an uncanny ability to repeat itself, and it's telling us that we should target the financial sector. ...

Geopolitical Developments & Market Impact - A 20-point proposal for a Gaza ceasefire, agreed upon by U S President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, awaits Hamas approval, potentially impacting regional stability and oil markets [1][5][38] - Qatar's role as a key mediator between Israel and Hamas is crucial for the ceasefire, requiring a face-saving gesture, such as Israel expressing regret for a past attack [8][9][10] - The Israeli Shekel has strengthened against the USD by approximately 10% this year, reflecting the impact of geopolitical developments on local markets [46] - RBA (澳大利亚储备银行) holds cash rate at 36%, notes uncertainties in global environment and upside risks to inflation [40][41][42][43] Economic & Financial Market Trends - Looming U S government shutdown raises market risk, potentially delaying crucial jobs data release and impacting monetary policy assessment [2][3][23][25][44] - Gold hits record highs, massively outperforming Bitcoin, driven by uncertainty and a pullback in USD, with potential for further gains amid Fed rate cuts [3][4][23][32][33][44] - The market has aggressively priced in 3-4 rate cuts by June 2026, making upcoming jobs market data pivotal for determining monetary policy [27] - Potential tariffs on imports of timber and lumber, particularly impacting Canada, add to market uncertainty [23][39] - MSCI China is logging five-month gains, the longest streak since 2018, driven by better-than-expected PMI data and geopolitical signals [48] Energy Sector - Brent crude oil is slipping down by 08% ahead of the OPEC Plus meeting, where increased supply is expected [4] - The oil market is bearish due to well-supplied conditions, with focus on Iran snapback and Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading to investment in gold over oil [52][53] - Afentra is cautious about oil price volatility, focusing on a strong balance sheet and strategic acquisitions [64][65][66] - Nigeria's government intervenes to resolve a clash between the petroleum and natural gas association and oil labor group, potentially impacting crude production of 650 thousand barrels a day [76][77][78]

Market Overview - The Dow is on track for its fifth consecutive positive quarter, while the S&P and NASDAQ are pacing for their seventh positive quarter in eight [1] - Macro growth indicators show the Atlanta Fed estimating growth at almost 4% and other economists at nearly 3% for the quarter, indicating a positive outlook despite initial fears [2] Macro Data and Earnings - There has been a significant increase in macro data surprises, with 15 months of positive surprises leading to a shift in expectations regarding recession risks [3][4] - Current equity positioning reflects a cautious stance among fundamentals-based investors, who are primarily concerned about cyclical risks and earnings [5] Earnings Growth Expectations - Investors are currently positioned for 1-2% earnings growth, while actual earnings growth was 10% last quarter, with expectations for slight acceleration this quarter [6] - The impact of tariffs on earnings is relatively small, with only 17 percentage points of S&P 500 earnings directly affected, and Apple accounting for 5 percentage points of that [8][9] Tariffs and Inflation - The direct impact of tariffs has been overestimated, with evidence suggesting that half of the impact has already occurred, leading to a reassessment of future risks [10]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures declined on Tuesday following gains on Monday, with major indices showing lower futures as a government shutdown looms [1][2] - The Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 futures fell by 0.20%, 0.16%, 0.14%, and 0.19% respectively [3] Sector Performance - On Monday, information technology, financial, and consumer discretionary sectors led gains, while energy and communication services sectors closed lower [4] - Nvidia Corp. shares rose approximately 2%, with other AI-related stocks like AMD and Micron also gaining [5] Economic Indicators - U.S. pending home sales increased by 4% in August, marking the largest gain in five months, contrasting with a 0.4% decline in the previous month [6] - The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.13%, while the two-year bond was at 3.60%, indicating market expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] Analyst Insights - Economist Jeremy Siegel noted that inflation data aligns with market expectations, suggesting a stable economic environment conducive to further interest rate cuts [10][11] - Siegel projects full-year GDP growth around 2.4%-2.5%, indicating a healthy economy without overheating [12] - Goldman Sachs' strategist identified potential risks including a growth shock, rate shock, and a significant dollar devaluation that could impact market stability [15] Company-Specific Developments - Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. is expected to report earnings of 55 cents per share on revenue of $1.62 billion [18] - Paychex Inc. is projected to report earnings of $1.21 per share on revenue of $1.54 billion [18] - Progress Software Corp. raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to $975 million to $981 million, exceeding previous estimates [20]

Core Insights - The Russell 2000 index has increased by approximately 2.5% in the five days ending September 19, coinciding with a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which is seen as a potential start of a deeper rate cut cycle in the next 12 months [1][2] Group 1: Small-Cap Stocks and Interest Rates - Lower interest rates are typically favorable for small-cap stocks, especially those that are unprofitable and rely on debt for operations [2] - Analyst support, business fundamentals, and risk profiles are crucial factors for stock purchases, beyond just rate cuts [3] Group 2: Identiv (INVE) - Identiv has a market cap of over $80 million and specializes in RFID and NFC technologies, with a current stock price of $3.68 and a 12-month price forecast of $5.33, indicating a potential upside of 45.09% [4][6] - Despite a revenue decline from $6.74 million to $5.04 million year-over-year, the stock has gained approximately 18% over the past three months due to a strategic pivot towards higher-margin businesses [5][6] - Analysts maintain a consensus Buy rating for Identiv, with a price target suggesting a 47% increase from current levels [6] Group 3: Immersion (IMMR) - Immersion operates in the haptic technology market, valued at $4 billion to $5 billion, with a projected CAGR of 7-10% over the next five to seven years [8][9] - The company primarily earns revenue through licensing its technology, positioning itself as a leader in the haptic space [9] - Analysts have a bullish outlook on Immersion, with a consensus price target of $12.25, representing a potential gain of 67% from current trading levels [10] Group 4: Emergent BioSolutions (EBS) - Emergent BioSolutions has a market cap of $432 million and focuses on supplying medical countermeasures to the U.S. government, providing stable revenue streams through government contracts [12][13] - The company was awarded contracts totaling over $90 million in September 2025, ensuring stable cash flows amid market volatility [14] - Analysts project a price target of $13.50 for Emergent, indicating a potential upside of 52.77% from its current price of $8.84 [12][16]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts are expected to benefit real estate investment trusts (REITs), which thrive in lower borrowing cost environments and offer attractive dividend yields compared to declining bond yields [2][3]. REITs and Rate Dynamics - REITs function as "bond proxies," moving inversely to interest rates, and historical trends indicate that they tend to rally following rate cuts as the bond market adjusts [3]. - The current environment allows investors to secure dividend yields ranging from 6% to 13% from various REITs poised to benefit from the Fed's policy shift [2]. Specific REITs to Watch - **Healthpeak Properties (DOC)**: Offers a 6.5% dividend yield and owns 702 properties in outpatient medical, labs, and senior housing. Recent performance has improved since August, driven by the Fed's actions [4]. - **Broadstone Net Lease (BNL)**: Provides a 6.3% dividend yield and focuses on single-tenant commercial properties, with a portfolio of 766 properties across 44 states and four Canadian provinces. The company has shifted its focus away from healthcare properties, which now account for less than 4% of annualized base rent [5][6]. - **Global Net Lease (GNL)**: Features a 9.4% dividend yield and operates a 911-property portfolio across 10 countries. The company has improved its operations through significant asset sales and debt reduction, leading to a corporate credit rating upgrade [9]. - **Armada Hoffler Properties (AHH)**: Offers a 7.7% dividend yield and is experiencing challenges but has shown slight improvements in cash flow [10]. - **Brandywine Realty Trust (BDN)**: Has a high dividend yield of 13.3% but faces risks due to high payout ratios and reliance on office space, which constitutes nearly 90% of its portfolio [11][12]. Financial Performance and Outlook - Broadstone expects adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) of $1.48 to $1.50 per share, with a current dividend payout of $1.16, indicating potential for a dividend increase [7]. - GNL has successfully reduced its net debt by $2 billion over the past year, enhancing its financial stability and operational performance [9]. - Brandywine's dividend payout was 107% of FFO in the first half of 2025, raising concerns about sustainability if liquidity issues arise [13].

Economic Indicators & Monetary Policy - The ISM reports will provide an early look at September, unaffected by the shutdown [1] - Investors are seeking alternative information sources like ADP due to uncertainty around government statistics; ADP's private employment survey is critical [3][4] - A strong jobs report could negatively impact the market by increasing yields and altering Fed expectations; the Fed might skip or delay rate cuts [11][12] - Hot JOLTS number and jobs number could lead the Fed to skip October or cut in October and suggest no move in December [11] Trade & Tariffs - The White House is using Section 232 investigations and tariffs to solidify its trade agenda amid scrutiny [5] - Potential Supreme Court action against AIPA tariffs could shift focus to Section 232 tariffs, creating uncertainty for corporate America [6] - If AIPA tariffs are struck down and refunds are issued, upward pressure on treasury yields could impact stocks [7] Geopolitics & Commodities - Geopolitics, particularly President Trump's stance on Russia and Ukraine, are influencing energy markets [8] - A shift in tone from President Trump towards Russia and the war in Ukraine has impacted oil prices [8] - Potential for longer-range missiles to Ukraine creates upside risk for oil; copper news also impacts commodity prices and inflation [9] Earnings Reports - Carnival's earnings report on Monday and Nike's on Tuesday are important events [2]

Prices aren't rising so fast as to postpone rate cuts ...

Group 1 - The anticipation of rate cuts from the Fed initially led to a rally among home builders, but the expected positive impact on the housing market has not materialized as hoped [1] - Lenar, a major home builder, reported third-quarter results that indicated continued softening in market conditions and affordability, contradicting investor expectations for improvement [2][3] - Lenar's revenue was weaker than expected, with lower deliveries and average selling prices that only met expectations, resulting in a housing gross margin of 17.5%, which is 30 basis points lower than anticipated and 500 basis points lower than the previous year [3] Group 2 - Despite delivering more units than expected, Lenar had to offer additional incentives to boost sales, which negatively impacted their gross margin [4] - The company aims to reduce promotional activities in the future, but there is uncertainty about whether this goal can be achieved [4]