We're a few moments away this morning from Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Fed Symposium in Jackson Hole. Let's bring in Apollo's global management chief economist Torstson joins us here at Post9. Happy Friday.It's good to have you with us, especially today. I mean, we we look at your charts every day. You clearly have some sympathy for the conundrum the Fed finds itself in.>> Yeah, because on the one hand, inflation is going up and as Sarah was just saying, anecdotes in this earning season have certainly ...

A big day for the markets as we get ready for Fed Chair J Pal's address in Jackson Hole. Steve Leeman is there and he joins us right now along with former Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and CNBC contributor and former Fed Vice Chair Roger Ferguson. Steve, uh, a lot of anticipation ahead of this. Yes, an awful lot. And I think I have a great panel to talk about ahead of time, but before I do, I want to just update viewers on where the Fed funds futures market is going into this speech. And there's ...

Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - The Fed faces a tug of war between employment/growth and inflation, striving to avoid stagflation [1] - Uncertainty prevails regarding which side (employment/growth vs inflation) poses a greater threat, leading the Fed to maintain current interest rates [2] - The Fed is potentially tilting towards a rate cut, possibly starting in September, influenced by recent softening employment numbers and declining workforce participation [3][4] - A 50 basis point cut is unlikely, as the Fed aims to maintain credibility and independence, and current data doesn't warrant such an aggressive move [6][9] - Employment data is the key indicator the Fed is closely monitoring to determine the timing and extent of potential rate cuts [12][13] Economic Factors & Market Dynamics - Tariffs' impact on inflation is still unfolding, with the value chain potentially absorbing some of the costs [11][12] - The US economy is viewed optimistically in the next 12-18 months, driven by innovation and significant investment in AI [15] - The US private sector and China are the primary forces driving AI development, with both vying for their standards to prevail [16][17] - AI has the potential to transform industries, job markets, and the central bank's reaction function, creating both winners and losers [19][20] - Breakthrough technologies like AI historically create more jobs over time, although the transition period may present employment challenges [21]

Market Outlook & Economic Concerns - Consumption is expected to slow down in the second half of the year [2] - Real wage income may face pressure due to hours worked and hourly earnings [3] - Big tech core businesses are sensitive to economic slowdown, potentially leading to negative operating leverage [3] - Stagflation, though not as severe as in the 1970s, could put the Federal Reserve in a difficult position [4] - Bull market psychology is present but prone to sudden breaks, with several risks in the latter half of the year [7] Inflation & Monetary Policy - Core PCE inflation is projected to be near 3% into the first half of 2026, which is not aligned with the Federal Reserve's goals [3] - The market may need to adjust expectations for rate cuts in 2026 [4] - There is a potential conflict between the Federal Reserve's desire for low inflation and the President's preference for a "red-hot" economy with strong nominal growth [13] S&P 500 & Potential Correction - The S&P 500 could potentially decline to 5500 in a significant economic slowdown, representing a mid-teens correction [9] - A milder correction could see the S&P 500 at 5750, a roughly 10% decrease [9] - Economic profits versus enterprise value to invested capital are close to levels seen in late 1999 before the market downturn [10] Investment Strategy - Investors should consider defensive, value-oriented sectors like beaten-up healthcare, waste companies, and utilities [14] - Caution is advised against being overly bullish, especially with cash needed within the next year [12]

And this week's economic reports haven't made it easy to decipher the state of the economy. This morning's retail sales showed consumers kept spending in July, but consumer sentiment for the month month dropped to its lowest level since May. These reports come after yesterday. We saw wholesale prices rising far more than expected, but CPI was lighter than expectations, at least on the top line. Joining us now is Gene Sperling, former director of the National Economic Council under President Obama and Presid ...

Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations - Consumer sentiment has decreased for the first time since April due to rising inflation expectations [1] - The market is actively repricing expectations from the Federal Reserve (FED) for the September 17th meeting [5] - There is a wide range of expectations regarding potential rate cuts, from no urgency to a cut of 100 basis points this year [2][3] - The University of Michigan indicates consumers expect inflation to rise, causing market reactions [3] - The current level of policy rates, 425% to 450%, is considered modestly restrictive [7] - Some analysts suggest the FED funds rate should be around 260%, while others disagree, citing inflationary risks [9] - The market is pricing out the prospect of a rate cut in September, but the next payrolls report is crucial [15] - FED Chair Powell is expected to balance the dual mandate, acknowledging the distance from the inflation target while opening the door to potential rate cuts [19][20] Credit Market Dynamics - Monday saw the most active day in credit deals and volume in three months, though sales fell $9 million short of weekly predictions [26] - High-yield credit market is experiencing a supply boom, with the busiest start since 2021 [26] - Fundamentals are considered strong, with high-quality spread products making sense due to solid consumer fundamentals [27] - Corporate sector is showing resilience, allowing selective movement down in credit quality [29] - Demand dynamics are robust across the credit spectrum, supported by light issuance and inflows into ETFs and mutual funds [30][34] - Geopolitical issues are considered more of an equity market story than a credit market story [40]

Inflation & Monetary Policy - The speaker initially anticipated rate cuts over the year, projecting inflation heading towards 2% with full employment, aligning with the FOMC's mandate [1] - Increased uncertainty and "dirt in the air," largely attributed to tariffs, have complicated the outlook [2] - The central bank is grappling with the possibility of a persistent inflation shock or stagflation, a scenario lacking a clear playbook [3] - The key question is whether the stagflationary shocks are temporary or ongoing due to new policy administrations [4] Economic Uncertainty - Tariffs are not a one-time price increase, unlike the initial theory suggested [2] - Determining a return to the pre-April 2nd path hinges on resolving the uncertainty surrounding stagflationary shocks and policy changes [4]

Monetary Policy Response to Stagflation - The Federal Reserve faces the challenge of responding to stagflationary shocks, such as those potentially caused by tariffs, which have both inflationary and supply-side effects [1] - The Fed aims to mitigate secondary impacts of tariffs, including wage-price spirals and increased production costs for domestic manufacturers due to tariffs on parts, components, supplies, and intermediate goods [1] - Determining which price increases are transitory and which require a policy response is a key task for the Fed [2] Data Dependency and Economic Outlook - Future monetary policy decisions depend on incoming economic data, particularly inflation reports, to gain clarity [3][4] - Strong economic data with inflation trending downwards would support the Fed's decision to lower interest rates to a settling point [3]

Let's get some real expert analysis. Joining us now, Chicago Fed President Austin Goulby. Austin, thanks for joining us this morning.We have now Steve, how are you. >> We've now had three of the four inflation reports we get in this nation. The most important come the end of this month, uh, PCE, but we can kind of calculate that.>> Take a step back. We know you don't react to any single inflation report or any single report. Give us your picture right now or your sense right now, Austin, of the inflation st ...

Global investors dived in the riskiest assets after a benign US inflation report dispelled fears of stagflation and lifted a roadblock for the Fed to cut interest rates https://t.co/pluagcsVoR ...