Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations for a "hawkish cut" [1] - This marks the third consecutive rate cut by the Federal Reserve, totaling a cumulative reduction of 75 basis points for the year [2] - The decision was passed with a vote of 9 in favor and 3 against, indicating a split within the committee, with notable dissent from the Kansas City and Chicago Fed presidents [2][3] - The Fed's statement highlighted that further rate cuts would depend on evidence of deterioration in the labor market [4] - The threshold for future rate cuts has been raised, with the timing and magnitude of cuts now contingent on changes in economic outlook [5] - The "dot plot" indicates that the Fed expects only one more rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027, with rates projected to return to a long-term level of 3% [6] - The committee raised its GDP growth forecast for 2026 by 0.5 percentage points to 2.3%, while still anticipating inflation to remain above the 2% target until 2028 [8] - The Fed announced plans to resume purchasing U.S. Treasury securities, starting with $40 billion in short-term bonds, following concerns about pressures in the overnight funding market [8] - There are concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, as recent comments from the White House suggest dissatisfaction with the pace of rate cuts [8]

Japanese companies sold a record amount of yen-denominated bonds targeting individuals this year, the latest sign that sticky inflation is causing households to shift more of their $14.3 trillion of financial assets into riskier investments https://t.co/71246Gxyan ...

Core Viewpoint - The economy may not require further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, as indicated by Apollo Global Management's CEO Marc Rowan, who believes current data does not support the need for cuts [1][2]. Economic Context - The Federal Reserve recently cut rates by 25 basis points, marking the third cut of 2025, while market forces are expected to remain inflationary in the long term [2][3]. - Global governments are borrowing unprecedented amounts, and factors such as immigration reform and tariffs are contributing to inflationary pressures [3]. Company Performance - Apollo's third quarter results showed a favorable environment for risk assets, particularly in private credit, reflecting a resilient US economy [4]. - The company reported third quarter earnings that exceeded analyst expectations, with total fee-related revenue increasing by 23% year-over-year to $652 million, surpassing the expected $626.6 million [5]. - Adjusted net income rose by 20% to approximately $1.36 billion, or $2.17 per share, while Wall Street had anticipated $1.90 per share [5]. - Apollo's shares have increased by 14% over the past month, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, which gained only 1% [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, marking the third consecutive rate cut this year, with expectations for only one additional cut in 2026. The decision was contentious, with dissent among Fed members regarding the rate cut and future projections [1][2][3]. Economic Projections - The Fed revised its GDP growth forecast for next year to 2.3%, up from 1.8%, indicating a more optimistic economic outlook [14][30]. - Inflation is projected to decrease to 2.5% next year, down from a previous estimate of 2.6%, with an expected inflation rate of 3% by the end of this year [1][30]. - The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.4% next year, reflecting a slight decrease from the current rate of 4.5% [2][30]. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, stock markets reacted positively, with the Dow rising approximately 0.5% and the Russell 2000 reaching record highs [10][75]. - Bond yields have increased slightly, which is unusual given the expected rate cut, indicating market skepticism about the Fed's inflation targets [10][26]. Fed's Communication and Future Outlook - The Fed's statement included language suggesting a cautious approach to future rate cuts, emphasizing the need to assess incoming data and the evolving economic outlook [1][28]. - The upcoming change in Fed leadership is expected to influence future monetary policy, with speculation that the new chair may adopt a more dovish stance [45][46]. Labor Market and Economic Conditions - The Fed's decision to cut rates is seen as a response to a stabilizing labor market, despite concerns about the impact of AI on employment [80][81]. - The current economic environment is characterized by low jobless claims and a stable unemployment rate, suggesting resilience in the labor market [80][81]. Inflation and Affordability Concerns - There are ongoing discussions about the Fed's credibility in managing inflation, especially as it cuts rates while inflation remains above target [34][59]. - The affordability crisis is highlighted as a significant issue, with rising costs in healthcare, education, and housing impacting consumer spending [86][89]. Conclusion - The Fed's recent actions and projections indicate a cautious but optimistic outlook for the economy, with potential implications for future monetary policy and market performance as new data emerges [1][30][75].

We made a decision today. We had, you know, nine out of 12 supported it. So, fairly broad support, but it's not like the nor normal situation where everyone agrees on the direction and what and what to do.Our two goals are a bit in tension. It's very unusual to have persistent tension between the two parts of the mandate. And when you do, this is what you see.Everyone around the table at the FOMC agrees that inflation is too high and that we want it to come down and agrees that the labor market has softened ...

Hello everyone. The Federal Reserve and Drone Powell, they made their big decision today. The US economy is booming.We got data on why buying all-time high stock prices may actually be a good idea. And Netflix's Ryan Sorant, he unpacks what's happening with home affordability in America. We're live today from the desk of Anthony Pompiano.Before we get into today's episode, I need your help. My goal is to get to 1 million subscribers on YouTube. That's a big, hairy, audacious goal, but with your help, I'm go ...

Well, the Dow's up 1% after the Fed cut rates and Fed Chair Powell saying the real division within the Fed now is whether to hold or cut versus any potential hike in the near future. Joining us now is Jeffrey's chief market strategist and CNBC contributor David Zervos. David, the president wanted a half a point cut here.Uh is this quarter enough. >> I think the quarter's uh you know being rejoiced a little bit in the market just because the the market was set up for this hawkish cut and they didn't get it. ...

Brazil’s central bank held its key interest rate steady at a nearly two-decade high as inflation forecasts run above target for the foreseeable future despite mounting signs of a slowing economy. https://t.co/0d9o5jgLcO ...

In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks risks to employment to the downside. A challenging situation. There is no risk-free path for policy as we navigate this tension between our employment and inflation goals.A reasonable base case is that the effects of tariffs on inflation will be relatively short-lived, effectively a one-time shift in the price level. Our obligation is to make sure that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem. ...

Economic Outlook - The FOMC raised its 2025 GDP estimate to 1.7% from 1.6% and its 2026 GDP estimate to 2.3% from 1.8% [1] - The FOMC cut its 2025 core PCE price estimate to 3.0% from 3.1% and its 2026 core PCE price estimate to 2.5% from 2.6% [1] Interest Rates - The FOMC cut the fed funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75% in a 9-3 vote, indicating potential future adjustments to interest rates [2] - The median forecast for the fed funds rate is projected at 3.375% for the end of 2026, suggesting one 25 basis point rate cut next year [1] Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 Index closed up by 0.67%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 1.05%, and the Nasdaq 100 up by 0.42% [5] - Stocks rallied after the Fed's interest rate cut and a more dovish tone from Fed Chair Powell, alongside an increase in the 2025 GDP forecast and a decrease in core PCE price forecast [4] Corporate Earnings - Q3 earnings for S&P 500 companies rose by 14.6%, exceeding expectations of 7.2%, with 83% of reporting companies surpassing forecasts [7] - Photronics reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 60 cents, above the consensus of 45 cents, leading to a stock increase of over 45% [15] Sector Movements - Chip makers saw significant gains, with Micron Technology and Marvell Technology closing up more than 4% [13] - Mobile grocery delivery service companies declined after Amazon expanded its same-day delivery service, with Maplebear and Uber Technologies leading the losses [14]