Hello everyone. The Federal Reserve and Drone Powell, they made their big decision today. The US economy is booming.We got data on why buying all-time high stock prices may actually be a good idea. And Netflix's Ryan Sorant, he unpacks what's happening with home affordability in America. We're live today from the desk of Anthony Pompiano.Before we get into today's episode, I need your help. My goal is to get to 1 million subscribers on YouTube. That's a big, hairy, audacious goal, but with your help, I'm go ...

Well, the Dow's up 1% after the Fed cut rates and Fed Chair Powell saying the real division within the Fed now is whether to hold or cut versus any potential hike in the near future. Joining us now is Jeffrey's chief market strategist and CNBC contributor David Zervos. David, the president wanted a half a point cut here.Uh is this quarter enough. >> I think the quarter's uh you know being rejoiced a little bit in the market just because the the market was set up for this hawkish cut and they didn't get it. ...

Brazil’s central bank held its key interest rate steady at a nearly two-decade high as inflation forecasts run above target for the foreseeable future despite mounting signs of a slowing economy. https://t.co/0d9o5jgLcO ...

In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks risks to employment to the downside. A challenging situation. There is no risk-free path for policy as we navigate this tension between our employment and inflation goals.A reasonable base case is that the effects of tariffs on inflation will be relatively short-lived, effectively a one-time shift in the price level. Our obligation is to make sure that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem. ...

Economic Outlook - The FOMC raised its 2025 GDP estimate to 1.7% from 1.6% and its 2026 GDP estimate to 2.3% from 1.8% [1] - The FOMC cut its 2025 core PCE price estimate to 3.0% from 3.1% and its 2026 core PCE price estimate to 2.5% from 2.6% [1] Interest Rates - The FOMC cut the fed funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75% in a 9-3 vote, indicating potential future adjustments to interest rates [2] - The median forecast for the fed funds rate is projected at 3.375% for the end of 2026, suggesting one 25 basis point rate cut next year [1] Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 Index closed up by 0.67%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 1.05%, and the Nasdaq 100 up by 0.42% [5] - Stocks rallied after the Fed's interest rate cut and a more dovish tone from Fed Chair Powell, alongside an increase in the 2025 GDP forecast and a decrease in core PCE price forecast [4] Corporate Earnings - Q3 earnings for S&P 500 companies rose by 14.6%, exceeding expectations of 7.2%, with 83% of reporting companies surpassing forecasts [7] - Photronics reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 60 cents, above the consensus of 45 cents, leading to a stock increase of over 45% [15] Sector Movements - Chip makers saw significant gains, with Micron Technology and Marvell Technology closing up more than 4% [13] - Mobile grocery delivery service companies declined after Amazon expanded its same-day delivery service, with Maplebear and Uber Technologies leading the losses [14]

So Jeffrey, you you so rightly told me last time that you were looking for a steeper yield curve. Um, and it's exactly what what we've gotten as you alluded to that. Why do you think rates have backed up on the long end the way that they have >> people are worried about the interest expense on the Treasury debt and they're worried about the fact that the budget deficit is 6.2% 2% of GDP while we're in an extended economic expansion.So they're worried that the interest expense is going to be out of control b ...

Inflation has eased significantly from its highs in mid 2022, but remains somewhat elevated relative to our 2% longerrun goal. Very little data on inflation have been released since our meeting in October. Total PCE prices rose 2.8% over the 12 months ending in September. And excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices also rose 2.8%.These readings are higher than earlier in the year as inflation for goods has picked up, reflecting the effects of tariffs. In contrast, disinflation app ...

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday declined to comment on the upcoming Supreme Court decision that could shape the future of President Donald Trump's trade agenda. "It's not something I want to address here," Powell said during a press conference following the central bank's December interest rate decision. "It's before the courts and we don't think that we help matters by trying to engage," he added.When asked how the Fed would incorporate potential changes to growth and inflation should t ...

Job Market - Fed leaders anticipate more economic growth in 2026 and stable unemployment levels, but express concerns about slowing labor demand and participation. Lower rates could help stimulate hiring [2] - Fed Chair Powell noted that chatbots are not yet replacing jobs, despite some high-profile layoffs in Corporate America. Overall layoff rates remain relatively low [3] Inflation - Inflation remains slightly above the Fed's 2% target, with limited data available due to the government shutdown. Lower rates could risk rising consumer prices, but Powell indicated that strong consumer spending is currently driving inflation, primarily influenced by tariff policy rather than broad economic weakness [4] Markets - Despite a hawkish rate cut, markets rallied sharply, with the S&P 500 nearing a record close and the Dow gaining almost 500 points. Factors from the meeting contributed to increased investor bullishness [5] Future of the Fed - With Powell's term ending in May, a successor will be named in January. Powell aims to leave the economy in good shape, targeting a return to 2% inflation and a strong labor market. Significant division among Federal Open Market Committee members was noted, with three dissenting votes, indicating ongoing tension between employment and inflation risks [6] - Powell emphasized that discussions within the Fed are constructive and respectful, and indicated that a rate hike is not anticipated in the near future. The focus remains on strengthening the economy rather than solely combating inflation [7]

Fed Policy Stance - The market interprets the Fed's recent actions as a dovish meeting rather than a hawkish cut, despite the rate cut [1][2][7][10] - The Fed is perceived to be more focused on employment risks, specifically the potential rise in unemployment, than on inflationary pressures [6] - The Fed seems to downplay inflationary risks, suggesting good progress on inflation, if not for tariffs [3][4][5] Quantitative Easing (QE) and Tightening (QT) - The Fed has unexpectedly ramped up QE by $40 billion, after a period of QT, raising hopes for further QE if needed [7] Interest Rate Dynamics - Despite the Fed dropping rates by 175 basis points since September, the 2-year Treasury rate remains unchanged [6] - The Fed funds rate is now in line with the 2-year Treasury yield [5][6] - Long-term interest rates, such as the 30-year Treasury, have risen by approximately 75 basis points since the Fed started cutting rates [8][9] - The 2s30s Treasury curve has steepened to around 123-124 basis points, approaching the year's high of 130 basis points [10] Economic Assessment - The Fed estimates that monthly jobs gains are overstated by approximately 60,000, suggesting a potentially weaker labor market than reported [2] - The market believes that cutting interest rates is not helpful for long-term interest rates [9] - Cutting rates by 175 basis points has not helped the housing market [8]