Group 1 - The central bank of China set the RMB to USD midpoint rate at 7.1029, an increase of 35 basis points, marking the highest appreciation since November 6, 2024 [2] Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 92%, with a 0% chance of maintaining current rates [4] - The likelihood of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut in October is 21.2%, while the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 72.6% [4] - There is a 6.2% chance of a cumulative 75 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve [4]

来源：市场资讯 9月1日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.1072，下调42.00点。 美联储9月降息概率为87.4% 年内人民币兑美元汇率有望走强 外汇远期价格往往反映了市场对未来一段时间汇率走势的预期。8月以来，在人民币兑美元汇率即期价 格震荡走强的同时，3月期、4月期远期价格表现亦趋同，说明至今年年底前，市场看好人民币兑美元汇 率走强。而央行的汇率政策是一贯的，在坚持市场在汇率形成中起决定性作用、坚持底线思维的原则 下，可以预见，未来一段时间，人民币兑美元汇率有望持续维持震荡偏强的行情，这将有利于进一步提 升包括资本市场在内的人民币资产的国际吸引力。（证券时报） 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为12.6%，降息25个基点的概率为87.4%。美联储 10月维持利率不变的概率为5.6%，累计降息25个基点的概率为45.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 48.6%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has strengthened against the US dollar, with a notable increase of 0.84% in August, marking the largest rise in three months, driven by a weaker dollar and a strong A-share market [1][2][3]. Exchange Rate Movement - As of August 29, the onshore yuan reached a nearly ten-month high at 7.133 against the dollar, while the offshore yuan briefly surpassed 7.12 [1][2]. - The People's Bank of China set the yuan's central parity rate at 7.103, a rise of 33 points from the previous day, indicating the strongest adjustment in nearly a year [1][7]. Factors Influencing Yuan Strength - External factors include a weak US job market, which has increased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, leading to a decline in the dollar index [3][4]. - Internal factors involve narrowing interest rate differentials between China and the US, along with supportive government policies for the tech sector, which have boosted the A-share market [4][5]. A-Share Market Performance - In August, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 7.97%, the Shenzhen Component by 15.32%, and the ChiNext Index by 24.13%, reflecting a positive market response to recent policies [5]. - Despite a net outflow of over 10 billion yuan from southbound funds on August 28, the overall trend indicates capital inflow into the domestic market [5]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the yuan may break the 7.00 level against the dollar by year-end, supported by reduced demand for dollars and increased demand for yuan [2][8]. - The current market conditions show approximately $350 billion in pending currency conversion, which could further support the yuan's appreciation [8]. Regulatory Perspective - The strong setting of the yuan's central parity rate suggests regulatory support for a stronger yuan, which could enhance domestic consumption and positively impact the A-share market [7][8].

Group 1 - The central parity rate of the RMB against the USD increased by 45 points to 7.1063, marking the highest appreciation since November 6, 2024 [2] Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 88.7%, while the probability of maintaining rates is 11.3% [4] - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged in October is 5.5%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 49% and a 50 basis point cut at 45.5% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the RMB to USD exchange rate reflect a combination of global economic uncertainties, domestic economic data volatility, and complex international trade dynamics [4][5]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Dynamics - The official midpoint rate for RMB against USD was reported at 7.1321, while the onshore RMB fell below 7.18, reaching 7.1802, and the offshore RMB was at 7.1828 [2]. - The decline in the onshore RMB by 32 basis points and the offshore RMB by 8 basis points indicates a cautious market sentiment, with investors closely monitoring economic data and policy developments [5]. Group 2: Impact on Trade and Businesses - For export companies, a weaker RMB can enhance competitiveness as foreign clients can purchase more Chinese goods for fewer dollars, potentially boosting sales [8]. - Conversely, import companies face increased costs as they need to spend more RMB to acquire USD for payments, raising operational expenses [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Future exchange rate movements are influenced by key indicators such as the People's Bank of China's monetary policy, significant domestic and international economic data releases, and changes in international trade patterns [9]. - Investors are advised to focus on scientific asset allocation and risk diversification rather than attempting to predict exchange rate fluctuations [9].

格隆汇8月25日｜人民币兑美元中间价报7.1161，上调160点；上一交易日中间价7.1321，上一交易日官 方收盘价7.1805，上日夜盘报收7.1666。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

美联储9月降息25个基点的概率为81.9% 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为18.1%，降息25个基点的概率为81.9%；美联储 10月维持利率不变的概率为8%，累计降息25个基点的概率为46.4%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 45.5%。 8月21日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.1287，上调97.00点。 美联储会议纪要：同意维持利率不变 经济前景不确定性仍然较高 美联储公布联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）7月29日至30日的会议纪要。会议纪要显示，美联储同意将 联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%-4.5%之间。在本次会议的货币政策讨论中，委员们一致认为，尽管 净出口波动影响了数据，但近标表明，上半年经济活动增长有所放缓。通胀率仍然略高，经济前景的不 确定性仍然较高。 来源：新浪网 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the announcement of the foreign exchange revenue and expenditure data for the first half of 2025 by the State Council Information Office, highlighting a 1.9% appreciation of the RMB against the USD [1] Group 2 - The press conference was held on July 22, where the Deputy Director and spokesperson of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Li Bin, provided insights into the currency exchange trends [1] - The report indicates a positive trend in the RMB's performance against the USD, which may influence market sentiment and investment strategies [1]

Group 1 - The central exchange rate of the Renminbi against the US dollar is reported at 7.1876, which represents a depreciation of 6 basis points compared to the previous trading day [1] - The People's Bank of China has authorized the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center to publish the exchange rates for various currencies against the Renminbi, including 1 Euro at 7.5235, 100 Japanese Yen at 4.6171, and 1 British Pound at 9.0630 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan's central parity against the US dollar was set at 7.1345 on August 7, reflecting an increase of 64 basis points from the previous trading day's rate of 7.1409 [1] Exchange Rate Summary - The onshore yuan closed at 7.1900 at 16:30 on the same day [1] - The night session saw the yuan trading at 7.1836 [1]