CME"美联储观察"显示，美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为4.0%，维持利率不变的概率为96.0%。到4 月，累计降息25个基点的概率为17.3%，维持利率不变的概率为82.1%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 0.6%。到6月，累计降息25个基点的概率为46.8%。 ...

每日经济新闻 每经AI快讯，据CME"美联储观察"：美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为4.0%，维持利率不变的概率为 96.0%。美联储到4月累计降息25个基点的概率17.3%，维持利率不变的概率为82.1%，累计降息50个基 点的概率为0.6%。到6月累计降息25个基点的概率为46.8%。 ...

前言： 2.23黄金行情走势分析： 黄金技术面分析：黄金开盘直接跳涨，最高冲击至5171一线，这是在上周先跌后涨之后的新一轮上涨， 而本周开盘的上涨，可以看做是上周懂王加征关税的消息面影响，这也是开盘跳涨的主要影响，那么在 上周尾探底回升，早盘开盘跳涨之后，明显来说趋势就偏向多头了，在技术面没有跌幅迹象的情况下， 延续看涨也是我们操作的主要方向。 很多人的想法在春节期间都不够坚定，认为节前黄金，白银的一波暴跌能改变趋势，可以继续深跌，当 黄金跌至4900，白银跌至75后，晟富就提示大家，不要过错这波抄底北上的机会，这波甚至可以持有到 春节后，静等收获。虽然前两周黄金在无限的震荡，来回波动，但晟富每次跟新博文的时候给了大家明 确看涨的理由和信心，如果你拿到现在，黄金已经上涨到5170，白银已经上涨到87，实现了各自的第一 目标，那么，本周在地缘局势，关税问题，美联储降息等核心不变的问题上，黄金，白银还得上涨出一 个高度。 今天是（正月初七）万事皆可期！这里给大家拜个晚年，预祝所有的朋友马年大吉，平安顺遂，财源广 进！春节假期刚过，国内外贵金属市场呈现出截然不同的景象。简单来说：国际金价、银价正在"高歌 猛进"， ...

美联储内部分歧进一步加剧。 北京时间2月19日凌晨，美联储发布的货币政策会议纪要显示，多位参会官员表示，如果通胀按其预期 下降，进一步降息很可能将是合适的。部分决策官员则对进一步降息持谨慎态度。值得注意的是，会议 纪要还首次提到，有官员讨论了加息的可能性。这暴露美联储决策层对未来利率走向存在着巨大分歧。 市场方面，隔夜美股三大指数集体拉升，纳指盘中一度大涨超1.4%，标普500指数一度涨近1%，截至收 盘，道指涨0.26%，标普500指数涨0.56%，纳指涨0.78%。美股大型科技股普涨，英伟达、亚马逊涨超 1%，苹果、谷歌、微软、Meta、特斯拉、博通均小幅收涨。存储芯片概念股全线走强，美光科技大涨 超5%，西部数据大涨超4%。 美联储发布 美东时间2月18日，美联储公布了1月货币政策会议纪要，其中显示，美联储内部围绕利率路径的讨论出 现重大分歧，降息、暂停降息、加息三种可能性均被提及。 在1月议息会议上，部分参会官员认为，若通胀如预期下降，就可能适合进一步降息。 大多数参会官员警告称，通胀回落至2%的进程可能比普遍预期"更慢、更不均衡"。绝大多数参会官员 判断，近几个月就业方面的下行风险有所缓和，但通胀更 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding future interest rate paths have intensified, with discussions on rate cuts, pauses, and even potential rate hikes being mentioned [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - Several officials indicated that further rate cuts could be appropriate if inflation declines as expected, while others expressed caution about additional cuts [1][3]. - The minutes revealed that some officials discussed the possibility of rate hikes, highlighting significant disagreements within the Fed regarding future monetary policy [1][2]. - Most officials warned that the process of bringing inflation back to the 2% target may be slower and more uneven than generally anticipated [3][5]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - Recent data shows that overall inflation in the U.S. has significantly decreased from its 2022 peak but remains above the Fed's 2% target [5]. - Officials believe that elevated inflation is largely driven by core goods inflation, which may have been influenced by increased tariffs [5]. - The labor market has shown signs of stabilization, with recent data indicating a steady unemployment rate and low job growth, although some indicators suggest ongoing softness in the market [6]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Expectations - Following the Fed's meeting minutes release, U.S. stock indices saw a collective rise, with major tech stocks also experiencing gains [1]. - Market expectations for the timing of the next rate cut have been adjusted, with futures pricing indicating a possibility of a cut within six months [6][7]. - As of the latest data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by March is 5.9%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate is 94.1% [7].

One basis point is equal to 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions.At 2:48 a.m. ET, the 10-year Treasury yield rose over 2 basis points to 4.075%, and the 30-year Treasury bond yield was up 1 basis point to 4.7%. The 2-year Treasury note yield was 1 basis point higher at 3.453%.U.S. Treasury yields edged higher on Wednesday as investors anticipated the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and key inflation data.Investors will be keeping an eye out for the FOMC meeting minutes, which will be r ...

每经AI快讯，2月10日，据CME"美联储观察"：美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为17.7%，维持利率不 变的概率为82.3%。美联储到4月累计降息25个基点的概率为32.4%，维持利率不变的概率为63.5%，累 计降息50个基点的概率为4%。到6月累计降息25个基点的概率为50.4%。 每日经济新闻 ...

Group 1 - The central bank of China set the RMB to USD midpoint at 6.9570, marking a decrease of 37 points, the largest drop since November 18, 2025 [2] Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in March is 90.1%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 9.9% [4] - By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rises to 23.2%, with a 75.1% chance of maintaining rates [4] - The likelihood of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by June is 46.0% [4]

Group 1 - The central bank of China set the RMB to USD midpoint at 6.9570, marking a decrease of 37 points, the largest drop since November 18, 2025 [2][6] Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in March is 90.1%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is 9.9% [3][8] - By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 23.2%, with a 75.1% chance of rates remaining unchanged [3][8] - By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut increases to 46.0% [3][8]

CME"美联储观察"：美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为9.9%，维持利率不变的概率为90.1%。美联储 到4月累计降息25个基点的概率为23.2%，维持利率不变的概率为75.1%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 1.6%。 来源：滚动播报 ...