美联储利率决策

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现货黄金突破4000美元关口!黄金投资还有机会吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 02:28
诺安基金仍持续看好黄金中长期的上涨逻辑 投资时间网、标点财经快讯 10月8日,伦敦现货黄金价格首次突破4000美元整数关口,创下历史新高,年初至今涨幅超过50%。此 前一天COMEX黄金期货也站上4000美元/盎司的新高位,收盘价为4004.80美元/盎司。 诺安基金仍持续看好黄金中长期的上涨逻辑。建议投资者积极关注黄金价格走势,逢调整逐步增加黄金 配置比例以把握黄金投资机遇。 天眼查专业版数据显示,截至目前,我国现存黄金相关的企业有14.2万余家,从地域分布上看,广东 省、江苏省、湖南省黄金相关企业数量位居前列,分别拥有3.8万余家、8200余家、7200余家;从成立 时间来看,近三成的相关企业成立于5年内,成立于1年内的相关企业占比6.77%。 诺安基金在十一假期前曾分析表示,国际现货黄金价格延续上行趋势,持续创历史新高,主要原因有部 分亚洲和中东国家央行持续增加黄金的储备。同时,节前一周美国十年期国债收益率、美元指数上行, 反映市场波动的VIX指数下行,全球黄金ETF持有量加速增加。 "美联储9月会议如期降息,将本次降息定义为风险管理型降息,承认就业下行风险上升。美联储降息决 策落地后黄金价格小幅回调, ...
美联储高官:政府关门导致数据缺乏,这对美联储“是个问题”
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-10-02 01:44
Goolsbee重申了对近期服务业通胀回升的担忧,他表示这可能意味着在经济中受关税影响最小的部分, 价格压力仍然持续。美联储下次利率决策会议定于10月28-29日举行。在这一关键时点,政策制定者将 面临在数据不完整情况下评估经济走向的挑战。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。 "如果我们没有这些数据,那就麻烦了。" 美国政府于周三开始关门,负责收集和发布经济数据的政府机构将停止相关工作。第一个可能受到影响 的重要数据就是定于10月3日发布的美国劳工统计局就业报告。美国劳工统计局原定于10月15日发布的 月度消费者价格指数报告可能受到影响,这是关于通胀的标志性报告。人口普查局关于零售额和新住宅 建设的报告也面临被推迟的风险。 芝加哥联储主席Goolsbee表示,美国政府关门期间缺乏官方经济数据将使央行决策者更难解读经济形 势,这对美联储"是个问题"。 Goolsbee周三在接受美国公共媒体节目采访时警告称,政府关门将使美联储在关键时期失去重要的经济 ...
今夜!黑天鹅!
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-09-30 16:15
美国政府停摆"黑天鹅" 大家好,10月的第一天,你们都出发了吗?路上肯定很堵吧,一起看看今晚海外市场的表现。 美股震荡 9月30日晚间,美股三大指数集体下跌,背后原因是美国政府面临关门危机。 分析师表示:"就华盛顿而言,市场普遍预期关门会发生,所以投资者目前基本按兵不动,但如果持续超过两周,人们会开始更加担心。" 野村发达市场首席经济学家大卫·塞夫表示,政府关门至少不会改变美联储在10月份即将召开的会议上的决定。公布的数据越少,美联储 就越没有理由偏离点阵图,点阵图显示10月份调整25个基点。"无论他们是否拿到数据,我们的观点都是,这一举措都会发生。" 分析指出,随着美国政府停摆的可能性上升,股市震荡加剧,市场担忧停摆会持续多久,以及关键经济数据可能延迟发布将如何影响美联 储即将到来的利率决策。 尽管政府关门通常不会显著推动市场波动,但这一次可能不同,因为投资者已对劳动力市场放缓、滞胀风险和偏高的股票估值保持警惕。 关门还可能促使评级机构重新评估美国信用状况,穆迪已在5月下调过评级。 众议院议长、路易斯安那州共和党人迈克·约翰逊表示,他对能否在午夜最后期限前避免关门"持怀疑态度",称结果取决于参议院少数党 领 ...
美股又跌了,中国资产大涨!阿里巴巴狂飙8%
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-09-24 23:24
Market Overview - US stock market experienced a decline for the second consecutive day, with the Dow Jones falling by 171.50 points (0.37%) to 46121.28, the Nasdaq down 0.34% to 22497.86, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 0.28% to 6637.97 [2] - The materials sector led the decline, while the energy sector rose due to a significant increase in oil prices [2] Key Company Performances - Tesla shares increased by 4.0%, while Microsoft rose by 0.2%. In contrast, Amazon fell by 0.2%, Apple and Nvidia dropped by 0.8%, and Google decreased by 1.8% [2] - Oracle's stock fell by 1.7% amid reports of the company planning to raise $15 billion through bond issuance [2] Economic Data - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 2.8%, with Alibaba increasing by 8.2%, JD.com and Baidu rising over 5%, and Pinduoduo up by 1.9%. However, NetEase saw a decline of 1.8% [3] - In August, new home sales in the US increased by 20.5% from July, reaching an annualized total of 800,000 units, surpassing market expectations [3] - The Mortgage Bankers Association reported a 0.6% increase in mortgage applications due to a decline in the average rate for 30-year fixed mortgages [3] Federal Reserve Insights - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's cautious remarks have injected a degree of caution into the market, particularly regarding the labor market, leading some investors to take profits [3] - Powell indicated that asset prices appear to be at "relatively high valuation levels," and emphasized the need for a balance between addressing inflation risks and labor market weaknesses [3][4] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggested that further rate cuts may be necessary due to slowing economic growth and consumer spending [4] Bond Market - The yields on long-term US Treasury bonds have risen, with the 10-year yield increasing by 3.1 basis points to 4.14%, and the 2-year yield rising by 3.2 basis points to 3.60% [4] Commodity Market - International oil prices reached a seven-week high, with WTI crude oil rising by 2.49% to $64.99 per barrel and Brent crude increasing by 2.48% to $69.31 per barrel [5] - Gold prices fell from record highs, with COMEX gold futures for September delivery dropping by 1.28% to $3732.10 per ounce [5]
Former St. Louis Fed Pres. Bullard on the Fed's rate decision, inflation concerns and tariff impact
Youtube· 2025-09-23 12:21
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut rates by 25 basis points is seen as appropriate, with potential for further cuts by the end of the year, totaling 75 basis points [2][5]. Rate Cuts and Future Projections - The Fed's strategy includes monitoring inflation and job numbers, allowing for flexibility in future rate adjustments [3][6]. - Aiming for a total of 100 basis points in cuts within the next year, with a possibility of reaching neutral territory by the end of the first quarter [5]. Inflation Concerns - Current inflation remains in the high 2% range, and the Fed seeks assurance that it will trend down to the target of 2% [6][19]. - The impact of tariffs on inflation is considered limited, as the foreign goods portion in the U.S. consumption basket is relatively small [8]. Market Confidence and Interest Rates - The credibility of the Fed is crucial for maintaining lower long-term interest rates, as market confidence in the Fed's policies influences the yield curve [10][11]. - Political pressure to lower rates quickly could undermine the Fed's control over long-term rates, leading to increased inflation risk premiums [14][15]. Neutral Rate and Economic Growth - The neutral federal funds rate is estimated to be around 3% to 3.25%, while some argue it could be 100 basis points lower, providing more maneuvering room for the Fed [17][18]. - Anticipated economic growth in the coming years may add inflationary pressure, necessitating careful policy considerations [19][20].
美联储会议前夜生变!特朗普动库克、换仪式,鲍威尔危了?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-19 07:16
美联储即将召开9月利率决策会议,但近期发生的一系列异常事件,给这场重要会议增添了许多不确定性。 9月15日晚间,美联储理事丽莎·库克收到联邦上诉法院的裁决,确认她可以参加本次会议。这起事件源于美国总统特朗普此前试图解雇她,理由是怀疑她在 银行监管问题上提供了不实陈述。就在库克事件尘埃落定的第二天,白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰在参议院批准后,宣誓就任美联储新理事。这场 宣誓仪式由亚特兰大法官伊丽莎白·布兰奇主持,而非惯例中的美联储主席鲍威尔或其他理事,这一安排显得格外引人注目。 面对这些变数,美联储主席鲍威尔正承受着巨大的决策压力。市场分析人士指出,在是否降息25个基点的问题上,鲍威尔将面临来自两个阵营的反对声音。 一方面,以新上任的米兰为代表的特朗普任命官员认为,过高的利率会抑制经济增长;另一方面,多位地区联储行长则担心,在当前通胀水平低于目标值的 情况下,继续刺激经济可能带来风险。 02 回顾鲍威尔2018年执掌美联储以来的经历,仅在2019年出现过一次政策分歧。当时美联储内部就是否应该为应对中美贸易战的影响而降息产生争议,最终有 两位官员反对降息决定,另有一位认为降息幅度过大。如今,类似的意见分歧可 ...
中航证券首席经济学家董忠云:米兰此次立场实质上是白宫对货币当局的一次公开“掣肘”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-18 13:43
中航证券首席经济学家董忠云对记者表示,新任理事米兰投下唯一反对票,主张更激进地降息50个基 点,释放的信号可从双重维度解读。 其一,鉴于其白宫经济顾问委员会主席的身份,且本次就任美联 储理事历经特朗普政府多轮运作方获参议院确认,米兰此次立场实质上是白宫对货币当局的一次公 开"掣肘"。该票不仅表达了对当前降息幅度与宽松节奏的直接不满,更以"异议"形式将政治诉求嵌入利 率决策程序,其政治象征意义远超对实际利率路径的影响。 其二,11比1的压倒性表决结果反过来凸显 美联储在高压环境下的内部"凝聚力"。异议虽存,共识仍固,表明鲍威尔已基本实现票委层面的战略统 合,短期内抵御住了来自白宫的显性政治干预,维系了美联储货币决策的独立性与公信力。 然而,米 兰的激进主张虽未能撼动本次利率决定,却为后续博弈埋下伏笔。(21财经) 来源:滚动播报 ...
US stocks flat at open ahead of Fed decision: Nasdaq slips 0.1%, Dow up 150 pts
Invezz· 2025-09-17 13:42
Stocks were muted on Wednesday as Wall Street braced for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and policy outlook later in the day. The S&P 500 inched up 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite slippe... ...
Why investors are on high alert for any signs of political interference in this week's Fed decision
MarketWatch· 2025-09-16 16:37
Core Viewpoint - Treasurys and gold are experiencing a rally as market anxiety increases ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision on Wednesday [1] Group 1 - The rally in Treasurys indicates a flight to safety among investors amid rising uncertainty [1] - Gold prices are also increasing, reflecting a similar trend of investors seeking safe-haven assets [1]
The Jobs Slump Is Here: What it Means for the Stock Market and the Fed
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-09 09:27
Key Points After a brief pop on Friday, stock prices fell in response to the weak employment report. The report makes a rate cut from the Fed more likely later this month. A recession is also becoming an increased risk. These 10 stocks could mint the next wave of millionaires › Several months ago, stocks briefly crashed over concerns about a trade war and a slowing economy. Now, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) is trading at an all-time high even as recent economic data makes it clear the labor mark ...