一、美联储的十字路口 素有"新美联储通讯社"之称的记者Nick Timiraos最近爆了个大料：鲍威尔可能在12月推动降息。这个消息一出，市场立刻炸开了锅。要知道，现在美联储内 部的分歧简直比A股散户的意见还要五花八门。 鲍威尔现在手里攥着两个方案： 说实话，这两种选择都够呛。美国经济现在就像个精神分裂症患者：一边是就业市场在降温，一边是通胀还在3%左右晃悠。这种"滞胀"的苗头最让人头疼 ——你既不能太激进地降息刺激通胀，又不能太保守把就业市场搞垮。 引子 最近金融圈最热闹的话题莫过于美联储的利率决策了。作为一个在量化交易领域摸爬滚打多年的老手，我不得不说，这次美联储的内部分歧比我想象中还要 精彩。鲍威尔这位老兄现在就像站在十字路口的司机，前面是通胀的悬崖，后面是就业的泥潭，左右都是反对的声音。这让我想起了自己在股市里摸爬滚打 的经历——有时候数据就在那里明明白白地摆着，但就是有人视而不见。 二、盟友与反对者的博弈 有趣的是，鲍威尔的两位关键盟友已经开始为他铺路了。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯说要把利率调整到"中性水平"，这话说得够艺术——既不能太高压死经济， 也不能太低放任通胀。旧金山联储主席戴利更直接，说就业市场 ...

摘要北京时间周一（11月24日）欧洲时段，美元指数小幅回落，交投于100.120附近，金价目前交投于 4066.81美元/盎司，涨幅0.05%，最高触及4076.69美元/盎司，最低触及4039.72美元/盎司。展望未来， 黄金市场的走势将取决于多个关键因素的演变。美联储12月的利率决策仍是市场关注的焦点，而即将公 布的经济数据，特别是推迟至12月18日发布的11月CPI报告，将为市场提供更清晰的通胀路径指引。 近期美国就业数据呈现"强劲中的疲软"：9月非农就业人口增长11.9万人，远超预期的5万人，但7月和8 月数据合计下修3.3万人，且失业率意外升至4.4%，创2021年10月以来新高。这种矛盾信号导致市场对 美联储12月降息预期剧烈波动，短期内预期概率在40%-74%间大幅震荡。 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯近期释放鸽派信号，表示美联储仍可在"短期内"降息而不会危及通胀目标，这一 表态使得市场对12月降息的预期概率一度从40%大幅攀升至74%。然而，达拉斯联储主席洛根则坚持鹰 派立场，呼吁利率应"在一段时间内"维持不变。这种政策信号的不一致性，直接导致了黄金市场的频繁 波动。 俄乌冲突方面出现重大进展，特朗普提 ...

美联储内部分歧在12月政策会议前加剧，主席鲍威尔保持沉默之际，投票委员会成员立场出现明显分 化。 这一局面凸显出美联储在支持疲弱劳动力市场与遏制通胀之间的两难处境。政府关闭导致关键经济数据 发布延迟，进一步增加了政策制定的复杂性。 市场转向"数票"模式 投资者正从关注美联储整体共识转向计算个别政策制定者的投票倾向。进入10月政策会议前，市场曾认 为12月降息板上钉钉。但随着鹰派声音爆发，降息概率一度跌破30%，威廉姆斯周五的表态令局势再度 逆转。 这一反复波动打乱了市场对下一步利率走向的判断。长期以来，美联储以共识决策为荣，这也是鲍威尔 自2018年执掌美联储以来的标志性特征。但眼下这种模式正面临考验。 New Century Advisors首席经济学家、前美联储经济学家Claudia Sahm表示： 鲍威尔现在不露面，就是为了让公开市场委员会的每个成员都有发声和被倾听的机会。他给 他们空间进行这种分歧，这实际上是好事，因为这很艰难，你应该进行这些辩论。 异议票打破鲍威尔时代纪录 曾经在鲍威尔时代属于罕见现象的异议票，今年明显增加。自6月以来，美联储的政策决定再未获得过 全票通过。研究显示，低异议票数能传递 ...

波士顿联储行长Susan Collins在暗示可能倾向于维持利率不变的一天后表示，她尚未决定在美联储下次 政策会议上如何投票。"我还没有做出决定，我不会在真正参加会议之前做出决定，"Collins周六在波士 顿联储年度经济会议间隙对记者表示。"还有数据将公布。"作为今年拥有美联储利率决策委员会投票权 的成员，Collins本周早些时候表示，由于通胀居高不下且当前政策仅具有温和限制性，她对12月降息犹 豫不决。（智通财经） ...

美国劳工部一份迟来两个半月的就业报告，勾勒出初秋时节美国劳动力市场的复杂图景，也为美联储年底最后一场利率会议埋下了争论的引线。 本文来源：根据CNBC、路透社、智通财经等官方资讯综合撰写 美国劳工部周四（11月20日）发布的数据显示，美国9月非农就业人数增加11.9万，远超市场预期的5万，显示就业市场在政府停摆前仍保持韧性。 然而，这份迟来的报告同时显示失业率升至4.4%，创下2021年10月以来最高水平，而8月份数据更是被大幅下修至减少4000个岗位。 这种矛盾的组合——就业增长超预期但失业率上升，为美联储12月的利率决策带来了前所未有的复杂性。 01 延迟数据解读 这份原定10月3日发布的就业报告，因创纪录的44天政府停摆而推迟至今，打破了自9月初以来关键经济数据的真空状态。 报告显示，9月非农就业增加11.9万人，显著高于市场预期的5万人，且创下自4月以来最大增幅。 不过，前两个月的数据遭遇大幅下修：7月非农就业从7.9万下修至7.2万；8月从原先的增加2.2万被修正为减少4000，这是2024年1月以来首次出现负值。 经过这些修正后，7月和8月的就业增长总数比先前报告的低了3.3万个岗位。 02 关键 ...

换资前言： 利润才是检验实力的唯一标准，不管分析报告多么的专业，还是文章读起来多么的深入人心，都不能改 变我们追求利润的目的。智者务其实，愚者争虚名，分析师不是作家，不需要多么华丽的语言去感动他 的客户，只需要用利润证明自己，市场变化莫测，优秀的分析师尽可能把握每一波的行情，回报大家， 让你从容不迫面对市场。（联系方式见老师主页简介） 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周四（11月20日）亚欧时段，黄金维持区间震荡格局，波动率处于低位，目前交投于4076美元/盎司， 延迟发布的美国就业数据大超预期给美联储维持12月利率不变提供了依据，小幅压制了黄金，同时芯片 巨头英伟达财报超预期点燃市场风险偏好，避险资金流入意愿降温，对金价形成压制。美元指数持续走 强进一步拖累金价，另一核心逻辑在于市场对美联储12月降息的预期显著降温。多重利空压制下黄金震 荡收敛，美元与非农共筑囚笼，降息预期骤降却见金价死守关键支撑，暗流涌动的通道下轨会否引爆意 外变盘？ 美国9月非农报告显示，就业市场在经历数据空窗期后，延续了"慢而稳"的全年态势。9月非农就业人数 增加11.9万，远超市场预期的5万，显示出就业增 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On November 18, 2025, the A - share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.92%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.16%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1926.1 billion yuan, a slight increase of 15.3 billion yuan from the previous day. Different futures varieties showed various trends affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, international market conditions, and policy changes [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On November 18, the three major A - share indexes collectively declined, and the Shanghai Composite Index had three consecutive negative daily K - lines. The CSI 300 Index remained weak, closing at 4568.19, down 29.86 from the previous day [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: On November 18, the weighted coke index returned to a weak trend, closing at 1685.2, down 47.6. Supply continued to shrink due to coking losses, environmental inspections, and coal source shortages, while the increase in molten iron to 236 tons supported the rigid demand for coke [2][4]. - Coking Coal: On November 18, the weighted coking coal index was weak, closing at 1186.1 yuan, down 42.8. The resumption of production in some Shanxi coal mines led to a slight increase in coking coal output, and the passage of Mongolian coal at ports returned to a high level. The high - price procurement by downstream coking coal slowed down but was mainly for rigid demand, and coal mines had sufficient pre - sales and low inventories [3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by technical factors after a large short - term increase, ICE sugar oscillated and adjusted slightly lower on Monday. Constrained by factors such as the decline of ICE sugar and the reduction of spot prices, the short - sellers pressured the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract to oscillate and decline on Tuesday. After a large short - term decline, the contract oscillated and sorted out slightly lower at night. The ISO predicted a global sugar supply surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 2025/26 season, with production increasing by 3.15% to 181.77 million tons and consumption only increasing by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. India's sugar production accelerated, and the new - season sugar output was expected to increase to 31.5 million tons, with possible exports of 2 - 2.5 million tons [4]. Rubber - Affected by technical factors after a large increase in the previous trading day, Shanghai rubber oscillated and sorted out slightly higher on Tuesday and oscillated slightly higher at night due to capital effects. In October 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tube production was 97.951 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5%. From January to October, the production increased by 1% year - on - year to 9.96421 billion pieces. In the first 10 months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [4]. Palm Oil - On November 18, palm oil futures continued to oscillate slightly at a low level, and the oscillation range was slightly higher than the previous day. The main contract P2601 closed with a small positive K - line with upper and lower shadows, closing at 8708, up 0.32% from the previous day. Last week, the arrival of palm oil in China increased while the demand did not keep up, resulting in inventory accumulation. As of the end of the 46th week of 2025, the domestic palm oil inventory was 574,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from the previous week, and the contract volume was 43,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous week [5]. Live Pigs - On November 18, the LH2601 main contract closed at 11,535 yuan/ton, down 1.37%. The inventory of breeding sows remained high, corresponding to an increase in live - pig slaughter from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the beginning of 2026. The concentrated release of large - weight live pigs from small and medium - sized farms and the resumption of the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises increased short - term supply pressure. The decrease in temperature would boost pork consumption to some extent, but the short - term pattern of strong supply and weak demand was difficult to reverse [5]. Soybean Meal - International market: On November 18, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. As of November 16, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 95%, compared with 98% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 96%. As of November 13, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 71%, lower than 80% in the same period last year, and the estimated Brazilian soybean output was 176.7 million tons. - Domestic market: On November 18, the M2601 main contract closed at 3,041 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The short - term arrival of imported soybeans was sufficient, the domestic oil - mill operating rate increased to 66% this week, and the soybean meal inventory was close to one million tons and needed to be reduced [5]. Shanghai Copper - The US government ended the shutdown, and the Fed took a hawkish stance, with the probability of a rate cut in December falling below 50%. In October, China's manufacturing production slowed down. The supply side remained tight, and although traditional consumption areas were weak, strong demand in new - energy vehicles and power - grid construction provided bottom - line support for copper prices [5]. Cotton - On the night of November 18, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 13,410 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 10 lots compared with the previous day. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang on November 18 was 6.1 - 6.3 yuan/kg. A 300,000 - spindle cotton - spinning project started in Jinghe County, Xinjiang [5]. Logs - On November 18, the Log 2601 contract opened at 792, with a minimum of 782.5, a maximum of 792.5, and closed at 785, with a daily reduction of 859 lots. The spot - market prices of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/cubic meter to 740 yuan/cubic meter, and the prices of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 760 yuan/cubic meter. In October, the log import volume decreased by 16.3% year - on - year [5][6]. Iron Ore - On November 18, the Iron Ore 2601 main contract oscillated and rose, up 1.41%, closing at 792 yuan. The iron - ore shipment volume continued to increase slightly, the arrival volume decreased, and the molten - iron output stopped falling and increased. The short - term iron - ore price was in an oscillating trend [7]. Asphalt - On November 18, the Asphalt 2601 main contract oscillated and closed lower, down 0.36%, closing at 3,032 yuan. The asphalt supply continued to decrease, the inventory was being reduced, and the terminal demand remained weak due to cold and snowy weather, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand [7]. Steel - On November 18, rb2601 closed at 3,090 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3,286 yuan/ton. The third round and fifth batch of central environmental - protection inspections started, which might reduce steel supply in the short term and support steel prices [7]. Alumina - On November 18, ao2601 closed at 2,780 yuan/ton. The spot price stopped falling, and downstream procurement accelerated. The market was in a game between weak reality and strong expectations, and the alumina price was in a weak oscillation [7]. Shanghai Aluminum - On November 18, al2601 closed at 21,465 yuan/ton. The end of the US government shutdown increased the uncertainty of the Fed's December interest - rate decision. The hawkish stance of the Fed put pressure on non - ferrous metals. The decline in aluminum prices led to a slight recovery in consumption, but high prices still restricted consumption, and the expected increase in aluminum - ingot supply in the off - season increased the pressure of inventory accumulation [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing a challenge in bridging internal divisions on interest rate paths without new economic data to reference [1][3][4]. Summary by Sections Internal Divisions - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson's recent speech highlights the dilemma of balancing persistent inflation risks against weakening employment [4]. - There is a significant divide among Federal Reserve officials regarding the decision to maintain or lower interest rates, with potential for at least three dissenting votes in the upcoming December FOMC meeting [8]. Interest Rate Outlook - Market expectations for a rate cut in December have decreased, with implied probabilities dropping to approximately 45%, down from 60% a week prior and significantly lower than 90% during the October meeting [4][5]. - Jefferson reiterated that current interest rates are "slightly restrictive," which may hinder U.S. economic growth, yet recent cuts have brought rates closer to a neutral zone [4]. Economic Data and Decision-Making - The absence of significant economic data due to government shutdowns has exacerbated divisions among policymakers, with some officials indicating they will oppose further cuts unless employment worsens or inflation improves [5][6]. - Concerns about inflation persist, with some officials fearing that new price pressures from tariffs could keep inflation above the Fed's 2% target for the next two years [6]. Diverging Perspectives - One faction of officials, including those appointed by Trump, is more focused on labor market conditions and believes that the risks of high inflation are overstated [7]. - Another group, including several regional Fed presidents and Governor Michael Barr, is increasingly worried about inflation risks and the implications of further easing monetary conditions [6][7]. Economic Indicators - Recent comments from Fed officials indicate that companies are cautious about hiring and layoffs, with signs of weakening consumer confidence and sluggish wage growth suggesting ongoing economic challenges [8].

"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos撰文指出，无论结果如何，美联储12月会议至少可能出现三张反对票—— 如果决定维持利率不变，特朗普任命的三位理事将投反对票；如果美联储降息25个基点，也至少会有三 人异议。 在缺乏新经济数据指导复杂决策的情况下，美联储官员们正面临一项挑战：解决利率设定方面的分歧。 "风险平衡的演变凸显出降息需循序渐进的必要性，"杰斐逊在堪萨斯城联储的一次讲话中表示。 除了这一观点，杰斐逊的言论既未支持长期暂停降息，也未为下月会议降息提供依据——这一决策正变 得异常具争议性。 作为美联储领导层成员，杰斐逊通常会强化主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的观点，鲍威尔预计 将在调和下月分裂的政策制定委员会方面发挥关键作用。 近几周，市场对美联储在12月9日至10日会议上降息的预期稳步下降，这在没有重大经济指标发布的时 期实属罕见。 芝加哥商品交易所（CME Group）数据显示，周一早盘，市场隐含的降息概率约为45%，低于一周前的 60%，也低于10月28日至29日会议时的90%。 美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊（Philip Jefferson）周一用实例展现了该央行的困境，他承认 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. government has ended its longest shutdown, leading to a backlog of economic data that will be released starting next week, which is crucial for assessing the economic situation and informing the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision [1][2] - Key economic reports, including the September non-farm payrolls and third-quarter GDP, will be published, but the October CPI may be permanently missing due to data collection challenges [1][4] Data Release Schedule - The U.S. Department of Labor will release the September non-farm employment report on November 20, followed by the September real wage data on November 21 [2] - The U.S. Department of Commerce will publish the revised third-quarter GDP on November 26, along with personal income, spending, and PCE price index data for October [2][3] Impact on Federal Reserve Decision-Making - The unprecedented data void caused by the 43-day government shutdown has created uncertainty for the Federal Reserve regarding economic conditions [4] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has indicated that the absence of data may affect the committee's decisions, emphasizing a cautious approach in light of the data gaps [5] Challenges in Data Recovery - While the September employment data is expected to be released, the October data faces significant challenges, with warnings that some key indicators may never be published [6][7] - The collection of consumer price data is particularly problematic, as two-thirds of the price data requires in-person visits to stores, making it impossible to accurately report October CPI [7] Broader Economic Implications - The data void will impact social security payments linked to inflation and influence corporate hiring and inventory decisions ahead of the holiday season [8] - Businesses are already navigating uncertainties related to trade policies and consumer spending, and a return to normal data reporting may take several months [8]