格隆汇8月25日｜人民币兑美元中间价报7.1161，上调160点；上一交易日中间价7.1321，上一交易日官 方收盘价7.1805，上日夜盘报收7.1666。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

美联储9月降息25个基点的概率为81.9% 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为18.1%，降息25个基点的概率为81.9%；美联储 10月维持利率不变的概率为8%，累计降息25个基点的概率为46.4%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 45.5%。 8月21日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.1287，上调97.00点。 美联储会议纪要：同意维持利率不变 经济前景不确定性仍然较高 美联储公布联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）7月29日至30日的会议纪要。会议纪要显示，美联储同意将 联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%-4.5%之间。在本次会议的货币政策讨论中，委员们一致认为，尽管 净出口波动影响了数据，但近标表明，上半年经济活动增长有所放缓。通胀率仍然略高，经济前景的不 确定性仍然较高。 来源：新浪网 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

人民币兑美元中间价报7.1498，下调37点；上一交易日中间价7.1461，上一交易日官方收盘价7.1796， 上日夜盘报收7.1809。 ...

人民币兑美元中间价较上日调降37点至7.1498，降幅创2025年5月27日以来最大。 ...

Group 1 - The central parity rate of the RMB against the USD has increased by 65 points to 7.1461, marking the highest level since November 8, 2024 [1] - This appreciation represents the largest increase since May 26, 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an in-depth analysis of the RMB to USD exchange rate as of July 14, 2025, highlighting its current stability and future trends, while offering practical currency exchange strategies for individuals planning to travel or study abroad [1]. Exchange Rate Status - As of July 14, 2025, the USD to RMB central parity rate is reported at 7.1475, with onshore and offshore rates at 7.1765 and 7.1798 respectively, indicating a narrow spread of 33 basis points, reflecting a stable market sentiment [2]. - The stability of the exchange rate is attributed to multiple factors, including a robust domestic economic recovery, which has bolstered employment and consumption data, thereby enhancing market confidence [2]. Factors Behind Stability - Balanced cross-border capital flows, with foreign capital inflows and outflows maintaining relative equilibrium, have prevented significant exchange rate fluctuations [3]. - Diminished expectations for US interest rate hikes, with increasing anticipation of a pause by the Federal Reserve, has contributed to a retreat in the US dollar index, providing a buffer for the RMB exchange rate [5]. Exchange Strategy - Individuals should make rational decisions regarding currency exchange based on actual needs, avoiding impulsive actions. For those planning to travel or study abroad, exchanging USD around the 7.17 level is considered reasonable, as it is lower than the previous year's high of 7.30 [6]. - Caution is advised against short-term speculation, as limited exchange rate fluctuations may lead to increased transaction costs without significant gains [6]. Future Outlook - The future trajectory of the RMB will largely depend on two key factors: the strength of China's economic recovery and the policies of the US Federal Reserve regarding interest rates [7][8]. - Market expectations suggest that the RMB to USD exchange rate will fluctuate within the 7.10 to 7.20 range in the second half of the year, with minimal chances for large swings unless unforeseen "black swan" events occur [9]. Currency Exchange Tips - It is essential to assess personal currency needs rationally and avoid chasing market trends, as short-term fluctuations have limited impact on overall costs [11]. - Utilizing official channels, such as banks, for currency exchange is recommended to avoid pitfalls and additional fees [11]. - Understanding overseas payment fees is crucial, as using credit or debit cards abroad may incur high transaction and withdrawal fees, potentially leading to higher costs than direct currency exchange [11].

Core Viewpoint - The central point of the article is the adjustment of the Chinese Yuan (RMB) exchange rate against the US Dollar, indicating a slight appreciation of the RMB in the latest trading session [1]. Exchange Rate Summary - The RMB central parity rate against the US Dollar is reported at 7.1475, which is an increase of 35 points from the previous trading day's rate of 7.1510 [1]. - The official closing price of the RMB on the previous trading day was 7.1776, while the night session closing price was 7.1780 [1].

Core Insights - The RMB to USD exchange rate remained stable on July 7, 2025, with onshore RMB (CNY) opening at 7.1641 and closing at 7.1692, while offshore RMB (CNH) opened at 7.1621 and closed at 7.1676, indicating a relatively calm market environment [3][4][6] Exchange Rate Data Analysis - On July 7, the onshore RMB reached a high of 7.1709 and a low of 7.1641, with a closing value of 7.1692, while the offshore RMB closed at 7.1676, maintaining a narrow spread of 10 basis points [3][4] - The actual exchange rate for consumers is expected to be around 7.17, factoring in bank fees [3] Factors Behind Exchange Rate Stability - Market confidence in the RMB remains stable, leading to minimal expected fluctuations [6][9] - The People's Bank of China effectively balanced liquidity and interest rates, preventing significant exchange rate volatility [6][11] - Recent improvements in export data have contributed to a more balanced foreign exchange supply and demand [4] Future Exchange Rate Predictions - The RMB to USD exchange rate is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7.15 to 7.20, with low likelihood of significant appreciation or depreciation in the short term [9][10] - Domestic economic stability and steady export growth support this outlook [9] - The nearing end of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle reduces pressure on the USD [10] Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuations - For individuals repaying USD loans, the current exchange rate of 7.17 compared to 7.20 can save approximately 30 RMB monthly, totaling 360 RMB annually [7] - Investments in USD-denominated assets, such as US stock funds, are directly influenced by exchange rate movements [7] - Export-oriented businesses benefit from the current exchange rate range, allowing for better currency conversion and reduced financial pressure [7] Strategies for Managing Exchange Rate Volatility - Individuals should adopt a stable approach to currency exchange for travel or study, rather than attempting to time the market [12] - Export companies are advised to implement flexible, phased currency conversion strategies to mitigate short-term risks [12] - Investors in USD assets should continuously monitor Federal Reserve policies and domestic interest rates to optimize their asset allocation between RMB and USD [13]

Core Viewpoint - The future trend of the US dollar index is likely to be a downward fluctuation, which may lead to a stable or rising trend in the RMB to USD exchange rate, benefiting China's cross-border capital flow and the internationalization of the RMB [2][11]. Group 1: Historical Analysis of the US Dollar Index - Since 1971, the US dollar index has experienced three long cycles of decline followed by rise, with significant percentage changes in each cycle [2][5]. - The first cycle saw a decline from 120.5 to 82.1 (31.9% drop) and a rise to 164.7 (100.6% increase) [2]. - The second cycle had a decline from 164.7 to 78.3 (52.5% drop) and a rise to 120.9 (54.4% increase) [2]. - The third cycle experienced a decline from 120.9 to 71.3 (41.0% drop) and a rise to 114.1 (60.0% increase) [2]. Group 2: Current Dollar Index Trends - From September 2022 to June 2025, the dollar index is projected to decline from 114.1 to 96.9, a decrease of 15.1% [4]. - The end of the previous Federal Reserve interest rate hike cycle and the beginning of a rate cut cycle in September 2024 suggest a new long-term downward trend for the dollar index [4]. Group 3: Characteristics of Dollar Index Cycles - The highest and lowest points of the dollar index in the three cycles show a gradual downward trend, indicating a weakening of the US economic advantage relative to other developed countries [5]. - The duration of the cycles has been increasing, with the downward phases lasting around 7-8 years and the upward phases extending significantly [5]. - The relationship between the dollar index and interest rates has changed, with recent trends showing a lower correlation between the two [6]. Group 4: Future Predictions for the Dollar Index - The dollar index is expected to continue a downward trend for an extended period, potentially lasting another 6-7 years [10]. - The lowest point of the current downward cycle may fall below the previous cycle's low of 71.3, but it is unlikely to drop below 80 due to issues in other developed economies [10]. - The correlation between the dollar index and US interest rates may remain low, impacting the RMB to USD exchange rate positively [11].

人民币兑美元中间价报7.1534，下调28点；上一交易日中间价7.1506，上一交易日官方收盘价7.1747， 上日夜盘报收7.1750。 ...