Apr. 22, 2025 产业洞察 根据Tr e n dFo r c e集邦咨询最新调查，尽管美国暂缓推迟征收对等关税9 0天，为笔电品牌提供短暂的 喘息空间，但整体市场仍受制不确定性因素的影响。 品牌自2 0 2 4年底开始提前扩大备货规模，推升 2 0 2 4年第四季出货年增率至5 . 1%，2 0 2 5年第一季达7 . 2%。 然而，考量整体国际形势的变化影响， 预估2 0 2 5年笔电品牌全年出货年增率将由3 . 6%下修至1 . 4%。 分析供应链情况，美国目前对自东南亚进口的笔电维持0%关税，使得品牌加速从越南、泰国等地出 货至美国市场。美系品牌从早期即积极布局东南亚产能，具备较大调度弹性，可在9 0天豁免期内快 速补充北美通路库存。反观非美系品牌，因东南亚供应链尚未完全成形，短期内的调整空间相对有 限。 若对等关税协商破局，出货量年增恐转为年减 美国为全球最大笔电单一市场，约占总需求3 0%，即便短期内关税暂缓有助品牌出货，但 Tr e n dFo r c e集邦咨询预期终端价格上调的可能性非常高，恐将抑制消费与商用换机需求。 目前品牌厂正密切关注美国与各国家间的关税协商进展，若美国最终对东 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the temporary suspension of tariffs on laptop brands in the U.S. market, highlighting both opportunities and uncertainties in the supply chain and market demand for 2024 and 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Despite a 90-day tariff suspension providing temporary relief, the overall market remains affected by uncertainties, leading brands to increase inventory ahead of 2024, with expected shipment growth rates of 5.1% in Q4 2024 and 7.2% in Q1 2025 [1]. - However, due to changing international circumstances, the forecast for 2025's annual shipment growth rate has been revised down from 3.6% to 1.4% [1]. Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - The U.S. maintains a 0% tariff on laptops imported from Southeast Asia, prompting brands to expedite shipments from countries like Vietnam and Thailand [1]. - U.S. brands have proactively established production capabilities in Southeast Asia, allowing for greater flexibility in inventory replenishment during the tariff exemption period [1]. - In contrast, non-U.S. brands face limitations in adjusting their supply chains due to the incomplete establishment of Southeast Asian production [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - If tariff negotiations fail, there is a risk that annual shipment growth could turn negative, with potential declines in demand due to expected price increases [2]. - The U.S. accounts for approximately 30% of global laptop demand, making the outcome of tariff negotiations critical for market stability [2]. - If tariffs on Southeast Asia are set between 10% and 20%, it may alleviate cost pressures for manufacturers and stabilize market confidence [2].