Group 1 - The article highlights that the global smartphone and laptop production forecasts for 2026 have been downgraded due to rising memory prices, which are expected to increase overall device costs and force terminal price adjustments, impacting the consumer market [2] - TrendForce has revised the production growth forecasts for smartphones and laptops from an increase of 0.1% and 1.7% respectively to a decrease of 2% and 2.4% [2] - There is a risk of further downgrades in production forecasts if the imbalance in memory supply and demand worsens or if terminal price increases exceed expectations [2] Group 2 - In Q3 2025, the global OLED monitor shipment volume is projected to reach approximately 644,000 units, reflecting a 12% quarter-over-quarter increase and a significant 65% year-over-year growth [5] - The OLED monitors are characterized by high picture quality, wide color gamut, high contrast, and fast response times, with most products featuring refresh rates exceeding 240Hz, driving demand in the high-end gaming market [5] - The total shipment volume for OLED displays in 2025 is expected to reach 2.62 million units, with an anticipated annual growth rate of 84% [5] Group 3 - The article discusses a structural shift in AI server design, moving towards cable-free architectures and high-density interconnect (HDI) designs in ASIC servers, indicating that PCBs are evolving from mere circuit carriers to core components for computational power [6] - The PCB industry is entering a "three high" era characterized by high frequency, high power, and high density [6]

以下文章来源于TrendForce集邦 ，作者TrendForce TrendForce集邦咨询是一家全球高科技产业研究机构，研究领域横跨存储器、AI服务器、集成电路与半 导体、晶圆代工、显示面板、LED、AR/VR、新能源（含太阳能光伏、储能和电池）、AI机器人及汽车 科技等，提供前瞻性行业研究报告、产业分析 根据TrendForce集邦咨询调查显示，2026年全球市场仍面临不确定性，通胀持续干扰消费市场表 现，更关键的是，存储器步入强劲上行周期，导致整机成本上扬，并将迫使终端定价上调，进而 冲击消费市场。 低端智能手机首当其冲 从个别产品来看，2025年智能手机存储器价格上扬主要由DRAM带动。2025年第四季 DRAM合 约价格对比去年同期上扬逾75%，以存储器占整机BOM cost约10~15%估算，2025年该成本已 被垫高8~10%。 TrendForce集邦 . 基于此，TrendForce集邦咨询下修2026年全球智能手机及笔电的生产出货预测，从原先的年增 0.1%及1.7%，分别调降至年减2%及2.4%。此外，若存储器供需失衡加剧，或终端售价上调幅 度超出预期，生产出货预测仍有进一步下修风险 ...

DRAM涨势强劲，低端智能手机首当其冲 从个别产品来看，2025年智能手机存储器价格上扬主要由DRAM带动。2025年第四季 DRAM合约价格对比去年同期上扬 逾75%，以存储器占整机BOM cost约10~15%估算，2025年该成本已被垫高8~10%。 随着DRAM及NAND Flash合约价格仍持续攀升，预估明年整机BOM cost将在今年的基础上再提升约5~7%，甚至可能更 高。对于原本就利润偏薄的低端机种而言，品牌端势必调降该产品占比，同时针对全系列产品分层上调终端售价以维系 正常营运。 由于存储器供应紧张状况延续，规模较小的智能手机品牌资源取得难度加大，不排除该市场将进入新一轮洗牌，大者恒 大的趋势将更为明确。 供给收缩推升存储器大涨，2026年笔电市场恐迎来成本与需求双重压力 2026年笔电市场同样将面临明显压力，以今年存储器上涨前的成本结构为基准观察，DRAM及NAND Flash合计占笔电整 机BOM cost的比重约10~18%，在如此大幅且连续数季的上涨下，预估存储器占整机BOM cost的比重将进一步扩大至20% 以上。 若品牌选择将成本转嫁，预估2026年笔电终端售价将普遍上调5~1 ...

Core Insights - The global market in 2026 is expected to face uncertainty due to persistent inflation affecting consumer behavior, alongside a strong upward cycle in memory prices, leading to increased costs for end products and potential price hikes that could impact the consumer market [2][3]. Smartphone Market - TrendForce has revised down its production shipment forecasts for global smartphones in 2026 from a growth of 0.1% to a decline of 2% due to rising costs driven by DRAM price increases, which surged over 75% year-on-year in Q4 2025, raising the BOM cost by 8-10% [3][4]. - The ongoing tight supply of memory components is expected to lead to a market reshuffle, favoring larger smartphone brands as smaller brands struggle to secure resources [3]. Laptop Market - The laptop market is projected to face dual pressures of rising costs and declining demand in 2026, with memory components (DRAM and NAND Flash) expected to account for over 20% of the BOM cost, up from 10-18% [4][5]. - If brands pass on the increased costs, laptop prices may rise by 5-15%, which could lead to delayed upgrades or a shift to the second-hand market, particularly in the low-end segment [5]. - The mid-range market may also see a slowdown in upgrade momentum as both corporate and household users extend the lifecycle of their devices [5]. BOM Cost Analysis - The BOM cost increase for high-end, mid-range, and low-end laptops is estimated at 12%, 12%, and 10% respectively from Q1 2025 to Q3 2026, with DRAM and SSD components making up 23%, 21%, and 20% of the BOM cost in Q3 2026 [6]. Display Market - The display market, while less directly impacted by memory price increases due to smaller memory capacities, may still face challenges if overall PC retail prices rise significantly, potentially leading to a decline in display shipments from a slight increase of 0.1% to a decrease of 0.4% [5].

Core Insights - The latest global city GDP rankings reveal a diverse development landscape, with New York leading by a significant margin, followed closely by Los Angeles and Tokyo in a tight competition [1][3] - China showcases strong performance with five cities making the top twenty, including Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Suzhou, highlighting the robust vitality and resilience of Chinese urban economies [1][5] Group 1: City Rankings and Economic Performance - New York tops the list with over 9 trillion, while Los Angeles narrowly surpasses Tokyo with approximately 6.78 trillion vs. 6.68 trillion [3] - Los Angeles benefits from its core position as California's economic engine, driven by advanced manufacturing, digital entertainment, and international trade [3] - Tokyo remains a leading financial hub in Asia, focusing on digital transformation and green growth, supported by significant R&D investment [3] Group 2: China's Economic Growth - Chongqing ranks 12th globally with a GDP of 3.21 trillion, leveraging its strategic position as a key node in the new western land-sea corridor [5] - The city has seen substantial growth in high-tech manufacturing and modern services, with a notable increase in retail sales surpassing 1 trillion [5] - Suzhou claims the 20th position with a GDP of 2.67 trillion, showcasing its industrial strength and innovation-driven economic clusters [7] Group 3: Innovation and Development Trends - The competition among cities has evolved into a new phase characterized by innovation leadership and collaborative development [8] - The collective rise of Chinese cities is reshaping the global economic landscape, emphasizing the importance of development models and industrial vitality [8]

Group 1 - The "tax refund" policy is reshaping the competitive landscape of China's manufacturing exports, with a specific example showing a photovoltaic component company saving 120 million yuan in cash flow, equivalent to 18% of its net profit in Q3 2024 [1] - The policy reveals three underlying games: the tax refund game in technology-intensive industries, compliance challenges for cross-border e-commerce, and the regional tax refund siphoning effect [1][2] - A battery company benefits from a 13% tax refund rate, but 73% of its input tax comes from imported separator materials, highlighting the complexities of the tax refund system [1] Group 2 - The Chengdu-Chongqing region's laptop cluster utilizes a "processing trade" model, increasing tax refunds by 42 yuan per laptop, but causing a loss of 3.7 billion USD in processing trade orders from East China in the first eight months of 2024 [2] - In the first half of 2024, the national export tax refund processed reached 1.54 trillion yuan, with a 79% year-on-year increase in recovered illegal tax refunds [2] - Future compliance benefits will concentrate on multinational manufacturing leaders with AEO certification and overseas warehouse companies using blockchain verification, while small exporters using manual methods may face a 17% risk of tax refund loss [2]

Core Viewpoint - The overall laptop market is facing uncertainty despite a temporary 90-day tariff delay by the U.S., with expected shipment growth rates being revised downwards for 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The laptop brands are expected to increase their inventory levels starting from the end of 2024, leading to a year-on-year shipment growth rate of 5.1% in Q4 2024 and 7.2% in Q1 2025 [1]. - However, due to changing international circumstances, the overall shipment growth rate for laptop brands in 2025 is revised down from 3.6% to 1.4% [1]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Tariff Implications - The U.S. maintains a 0% tariff on laptops imported from Southeast Asia, allowing brands to expedite shipments from countries like Vietnam and Thailand to the U.S. market [1]. - U.S. brands have been proactive in establishing production capacity in Southeast Asia, providing them with greater flexibility to replenish inventory in North America during the 90-day tariff exemption period [1]. - Non-U.S. brands face limitations in adjusting their supply chains in the short term due to the incomplete establishment of Southeast Asian supply chains [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - If tariff negotiations fail, there is a high likelihood of increased terminal prices, which may suppress consumer and commercial replacement demand [2]. - Brands are closely monitoring the tariff negotiations, as a potential tariff rate of 10% to 20% on Southeast Asian imports could alleviate cost pressures and stabilize market confidence [2]. - If negotiations do not reach a consensus, a price increase in laptops and weak demand could lead to a year-on-year shipment decline of -2.1% in the latter half of 2025 [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the temporary suspension of tariffs on laptop brands in the U.S. market, highlighting both opportunities and uncertainties in the supply chain and market demand for 2024 and 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Despite a 90-day tariff suspension providing temporary relief, the overall market remains affected by uncertainties, leading brands to increase inventory ahead of 2024, with expected shipment growth rates of 5.1% in Q4 2024 and 7.2% in Q1 2025 [1]. - However, due to changing international circumstances, the forecast for 2025's annual shipment growth rate has been revised down from 3.6% to 1.4% [1]. Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - The U.S. maintains a 0% tariff on laptops imported from Southeast Asia, prompting brands to expedite shipments from countries like Vietnam and Thailand [1]. - U.S. brands have proactively established production capabilities in Southeast Asia, allowing for greater flexibility in inventory replenishment during the tariff exemption period [1]. - In contrast, non-U.S. brands face limitations in adjusting their supply chains due to the incomplete establishment of Southeast Asian production [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - If tariff negotiations fail, there is a risk that annual shipment growth could turn negative, with potential declines in demand due to expected price increases [2]. - The U.S. accounts for approximately 30% of global laptop demand, making the outcome of tariff negotiations critical for market stability [2]. - If tariffs on Southeast Asia are set between 10% and 20%, it may alleviate cost pressures for manufacturers and stabilize market confidence [2].