Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: July 31, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton decreased in position and price. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,580 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Different regions and varieties of cotton had different sales price bases and quotes. The pure - cotton yarn market's quotes were stable, and the transaction price was approaching the quote. The all - cotton grey fabric market had weak demand, and the fabric price was stable and weak, with only partial improvement in some areas [7]. - Macroscopically, the negotiation on the suspension of tariff extension between China and the US was ongoing. In the international market, as of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 55%, showing a slight decline. The budding, squaring rates of US cotton indicated a slower growth progress, and the outer market was oscillating within a range. In the domestic market, the actual sown area increased year - on - year, with an expectation of a bumper harvest. The downstream industry's demand was still weak, and the 9 - 1 spread continued to converge [8]. Industry News - As of July 24, the deliverable No. 2 cotton futures contracts on ICE were 21,617 bales. According to CFTC data, as of July 22, 2025, the net long - position ratio of ICE cotton futures funds was - 18.94%, up 3.97 percentage points week - on - week [9]. Data Overview - The report presented multiple data charts, including those related to China's cotton price index, cotton spot and futures prices, cotton basis changes, various spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee [17][18][23]

Core Point - The Philippines plans to negotiate with the United States to lower the newly imposed 20% tariff after the U.S. increased tariffs on Philippine goods [1] Group 1 - The Philippines is responding to the U.S. decision to impose a higher tariff rate of 20% on its exports [1] - The Philippine ambassador to the U.S. has indicated the intention to engage in discussions with Washington regarding the tariff adjustments [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in July, with over 50% expectation of a rate cut in September. The baseline assumption is a 25BP rate cut in Q4, but there are uncertainties in tariff policies, US Treasuries, and geopolitics [2]. - OPEC+ is likely to increase production, with Saudi Arabia's exports increasing by 441,000 barrels per day in June. The oil market may return to supply - demand fundamentals, and short - term attention should be paid to OPEC policies and reciprocal tariffs [2]. - The oil price is in a low - level oscillation pattern. Traders are advised to short at high prices but wait for the right opportunity. If there is a short - term downward break, short - term follow - up can be considered, with stop - loss in mind [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Oil Futures - On July 1st, Sc was at 499.40 yuan/barrel, up 2.70 yuan (0.54%) from the previous day and down 19.20 yuan (-3.70%) from last week. WTI was at $65.53/barrel, up $0.56 (0.86%) from the previous day and up $0.52 (0.80%) from last week. Brent was at $67.28/barrel, up $0.65 (0.98%) from the previous day and down $0.54 (-0.80%) from last week [2]. Inner - Outer Spreads - Sc - WTI was at $4.28/barrel, down $0.13 (-2.99%) from the previous day and down $3.08 (-41.84%) from last week. Sc - Brent was at $2.53/barrel, down $0.22 (-8.06%) from the previous day and down $2.02 (-44.37%) from last week. Brent - WTI was at $1.75/barrel, down $1.01 (-36.48%) from the previous day and down $2.80 (-61.57%) from last week [2]. Sc Month - Spreads - Sc_C1 - C2 was at 6.60 yuan/barrel, up 6.70 yuan (6700.00%) from the previous day and up 4.30 yuan (186.96%) from last week. Sc_C1 - C6 was at 22.10 yuan/barrel, up 4.00 yuan (22.10%) from the previous day and down 13.40 yuan (-37.75%) from last week. Sc_C1 - C13 was at 25.50 yuan/barrel, up 1.40 yuan (5.81%) from the previous day and down 28.40 yuan (-52.69%) from last week [2]. Crude Oil Spot - OPEC's basket of crude oil was at $68.35/barrel, with no change from the previous day and up $0.36 (0.53%) from last week. Brent DTD was at $68.17/barrel, with no change from the previous day and down $1.05 (-1.52%) from last week. Oman was at $69.20/barrel, with no change from the previous day and up $1.40 (2.06%) from last week. Dubai was at $68.75/barrel, with no change from the previous day and up $0.95 (1.40%) from last week. ESPO was at $62.76/barrel, with no change from the previous day and up $0.49 (0.79%) from last week [2]. Premiums and Discounts - OPEC's basket of premiums and discounts was at $1.07/barrel, down $0.47 (-30.52%) from the previous day and up $0.14 (15.05%) from last week. Brent DTD premiums and discounts was at $0.89/barrel, down $1.68 (-65.37%) from the previous day and down $1.38 (-281.63%) from last week. Oman premiums and discounts was at $1.92/barrel, up $2.02 (2020.00%) from the previous day and down $3.94 (-195.05%) from last week. Dubai premiums and discounts was at $1.47/barrel, up $2.80 (210.53%) from the previous day and down $1.31 (-47.12%) from last week. ESPO premiums and discounts was at -$4.52/barrel, down $2.89 (-177.30%) from the previous day and down $18.82 (-131.60%) from last week [2]. Product Spot - Diesel in East China was at 7,036.45 yuan/ton, down 56.27 yuan (-0.79%) from the previous day and down 380.55 yuan (-5.13%) from last week. Gasoline in East China was at 8,078.18 yuan/ton, down 66.18 yuan (-0.81%) from the previous day and down 384.27 yuan (-4.54%) from last week [2]. Spread References - Diesel (East China)/Sc was 14.089817, down 0.19 (-1.33%) from the previous day and down 0.21 (-1.48%) from last week. Gasoline (East China)/Sc was 16.175775, down 0.22 (-1.35%) from the previous day and down 0.14 (-0.87%) from last week. Diesel - gasoline (East China) was -1,041.73 yuan/ton, up 9.91 yuan (-0.94%) from the previous day and up 3.73 yuan (-0.36%) from last week [2]. Sc Warehouse Receipts - The total warehouse receipts were 5.911 million barrels, with no change from the previous day and up 1.882 million barrels (46.71%) from last week. The strategic petroleum reserve was 402.53 million barrels, with no change from the previous day and up 0.24 million barrels (0.06%) from last week [2]. EIA US (Weekly) - Commercial crude oil was 415.11 million barrels, with no change from the previous day and down 5.84 million barrels (-1.39%) from last week. Cushing crude oil was 22.22 million barrels, with no change from the previous day and down 0.46 million barrels (-2.05%) from last week. Gasoline was 227.94 million barrels, with no change from the previous day and down 2.08 million barrels (-0.90%) from last week. Distillates were 105.33 million barrels, with no change from the previous day and down 4.07 million barrels (-3.72%) from last week [2]. CFTC Positions (Weekly) - Non - commercial net positions were 233,000 contracts, with no change from the previous day and up 19,000 contracts (0.83%) from last week. Commercial net positions were -270,500 contracts, with no change from the previous day and down 115,000 contracts (4.44%) from last week. Non - reported net positions were 37,600 contracts, with no change from the previous day and up 9,600 contracts (34.17%) from last week [2]. Industry News - Trump said Israel agreed to the conditions for a 60 - day cease - fire with Hamas, and he will meet Netanyahu on the 7th to discuss the Gaza situation and the Iranian nuclear issue [3]. - Iran was reported to have loaded mines on ships in the Persian Gulf, preparing to mine the Strait of Hormuz [4]. - Houthi rebels attacked Israeli airports and cities with missiles and drones on July 1st [4]. - US API crude oil inventory increased by 680,000 barrels in the week ending June 28th, Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 1.417 million barrels, gasoline inventory increased by 1.92 million barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 3.458 million barrels [5]. - Mexico's oil production is dropping to the level of the late 1970s, and its June exports dropped to a record low of 529,000 barrels per day [5]. - Israel's military action assessment report showed that its multi - layer air defense system intercepted 86% of Iranian ballistic missiles and over 99% of drones [6]. - Trump said he won't extend the trade negotiation deadline on July 9th and is skeptical about reaching an agreement with Japan, and may impose higher tariffs on Japanese imports [6]. - Brazil's oil production in May reached 3.679 million barrels per day, a 10.9% year - on - year increase, and natural gas production was 172.3 million cubic meters, an 18.3% year - on - year increase [7]. - Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports increased by 441,000 barrels per day in June to 6.36 million barrels per day, the highest in over a year [7]. - The US Senate passed a comprehensive tax - cut and spending bill, which plans to cut taxes by $4 trillion and spending by at least $1.5 trillion in the next 10 years, and raise the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Japan and the United States discussed tariff issues during a summit but did not reach a consensus on the overall plan [1] - Both parties agreed to instruct relevant ministers to further advance negotiations on the tariff matter [1] - Additionally, Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba held talks with Canadian Prime Minister Carney, where they reached an agreement to strengthen security cooperation [1]

Core Points - The first phone call between South Korean President Lee Jae-myung and U.S. President Trump took place on the night of June 6, lasting approximately 20 minutes, where they discussed the importance of the Korea-U.S. alliance [1][3] - Both leaders praised each other's leadership and agreed to maintain close cooperation to advance the Korea-U.S. alliance, including coordination on tariff issues [3][5] - Trump invited Lee to visit the U.S., and Lee expressed the desire for frequent meetings between the leaders to coordinate on various issues [3][5] Summary by Sections Phone Call Details - The call was the first between Lee and Trump since Lee's inauguration, occurring at 10 PM and lasting around 20 minutes [1] - Lee thanked Trump for his congratulations and emphasized the significance of the Korea-U.S. alliance [1][3] Leadership and Cooperation - Both leaders commended each other's leadership capabilities and committed to fostering the development of the Korea-U.S. alliance [3] - They agreed to work towards a satisfactory resolution on tariff issues and to encourage visible outcomes in working-level negotiations [3] Future Engagements - Trump extended an invitation for Lee to visit the U.S., and Lee highlighted the special nature of the Korea-U.S. alliance, advocating for regular meetings between the two leaders [3][5] - There is anticipation regarding potential discussions on defense cost-sharing and tariff negotiations during their future interactions [5]

Group 1 - The CEO of Volkswagen stated that the company is in negotiations with the U.S. government regarding tariffs [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6] Core Views - The company reported a strong Q1 2025 performance with revenue of 770 million, a 38% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 190 million, reflecting a 60% increase [1] - The growth is attributed to multiple factors including a focus on high-quality brand positioning, innovative product differentiation, and an optimized customer structure [2][3] - The company has successfully expanded its collaboration with major U.S. furniture retailers, resulting in a diversified and robust customer base [3] - The production capacity in Vietnam is being efficiently utilized, enhancing order delivery capabilities and solidifying the company's competitive advantage in the global supply chain [3] - Following the introduction of a 10% temporary tariff, the company has engaged in discussions with clients regarding cost-sharing, with most retailers showing a cooperative spirit [4] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts, expecting net profits of 910 million, 1.11 billion, and 1.38 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 5.4, 6.6, and 8.3 [4] Financial Data Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 1.92 billion in 2023 to 5.07 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.90% [10] - The net profit is expected to increase from 407 million in 2023 to 1.38 billion in 2027, with a significant growth rate of 24.52% in 2027 [10] - The company maintains a low debt-to-asset ratio of 17.84%, indicating strong financial health [6]

以下文章来源于TrendForce集邦 ，作者TrendForce 美国为全球最大笔电单一市场，约占总需求30%，即便短期内关税暂缓有助品牌出货，但 TrendForce集邦咨询预期终端价格上调的可能性非常高，恐将抑制消费与商用换机需求。 目前品牌厂正密切关注美国与各国家间的关税协商进展，若美国最终对东南亚地区征收的关税能 控制在10%至20%之间，或有助缓解厂商成本压力和稳定市场信心。但若后续谈判未达成一致，下 半年笔电售价调涨与需求疲弱恐将无法避免，届时2025年笔电品牌出货年增率恐将反转，下探 至-2.1%。 TrendForce集邦 . TrendForce集邦咨询是一家全球高科技产业研究机构，研究领域横跨存储器、AI服务器、集成电路与半 导体、晶圆代工、显示面板、LED、AR/VR、新能源（含太阳能光伏、储能和电池）、AI机器人及汽车 科技等，提供前瞻性行业研究报告、产业分析 【TrendForce】 根据TrendForce集邦咨询最新调查，尽管美国暂缓推迟征收对等关税90天，为笔 电品牌提供短暂的喘息空间，但整体市场仍受制不确定性因素的影响。 品牌自2024年底开始提前扩大备货规模，推升2024 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall laptop market is facing uncertainty despite a temporary 90-day tariff delay by the U.S., with expected shipment growth rates being revised downwards for 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The laptop brands are expected to increase their inventory levels starting from the end of 2024, leading to a year-on-year shipment growth rate of 5.1% in Q4 2024 and 7.2% in Q1 2025 [1]. - However, due to changing international circumstances, the overall shipment growth rate for laptop brands in 2025 is revised down from 3.6% to 1.4% [1]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Tariff Implications - The U.S. maintains a 0% tariff on laptops imported from Southeast Asia, allowing brands to expedite shipments from countries like Vietnam and Thailand to the U.S. market [1]. - U.S. brands have been proactive in establishing production capacity in Southeast Asia, providing them with greater flexibility to replenish inventory in North America during the 90-day tariff exemption period [1]. - Non-U.S. brands face limitations in adjusting their supply chains in the short term due to the incomplete establishment of Southeast Asian supply chains [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - If tariff negotiations fail, there is a high likelihood of increased terminal prices, which may suppress consumer and commercial replacement demand [2]. - Brands are closely monitoring the tariff negotiations, as a potential tariff rate of 10% to 20% on Southeast Asian imports could alleviate cost pressures and stabilize market confidence [2]. - If negotiations do not reach a consensus, a price increase in laptops and weak demand could lead to a year-on-year shipment decline of -2.1% in the latter half of 2025 [2].

Apr. 22, 2025 产业洞察 根据Tr e n dFo r c e集邦咨询最新调查，尽管美国暂缓推迟征收对等关税9 0天，为笔电品牌提供短暂的 喘息空间，但整体市场仍受制不确定性因素的影响。 品牌自2 0 2 4年底开始提前扩大备货规模，推升 2 0 2 4年第四季出货年增率至5 . 1%，2 0 2 5年第一季达7 . 2%。 然而，考量整体国际形势的变化影响， 预估2 0 2 5年笔电品牌全年出货年增率将由3 . 6%下修至1 . 4%。 分析供应链情况，美国目前对自东南亚进口的笔电维持0%关税，使得品牌加速从越南、泰国等地出 货至美国市场。美系品牌从早期即积极布局东南亚产能，具备较大调度弹性，可在9 0天豁免期内快 速补充北美通路库存。反观非美系品牌，因东南亚供应链尚未完全成形，短期内的调整空间相对有 限。 若对等关税协商破局，出货量年增恐转为年减 美国为全球最大笔电单一市场，约占总需求3 0%，即便短期内关税暂缓有助品牌出货，但 Tr e n dFo r c e集邦咨询预期终端价格上调的可能性非常高，恐将抑制消费与商用换机需求。 目前品牌厂正密切关注美国与各国家间的关税协商进展，若美国最终对东 ...