Core Viewpoint - The company forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will approach $64 per barrel [1] Industry Summary - The prediction indicates a potential stabilization in oil prices, which may impact global oil markets and related sectors [1]

Core Insights - The EIA short-term energy outlook report projects average WTI crude oil prices for the next two years to be $65.22 per barrel and $54.82 per barrel, up from previous estimates of $62.33 per barrel and $55.58 per barrel [1] - The report also forecasts average Brent crude oil prices for the same period to be $68.89 per barrel and $58.48 per barrel, revised from earlier predictions of $65.97 per barrel and $59.24 per barrel [1] Price Projections - WTI crude oil average price for the next year is projected at $65.22 per barrel, an increase from the previous estimate of $62.33 per barrel [1] - WTI crude oil average price for the year after next is projected at $54.82 per barrel, slightly down from the previous estimate of $55.58 per barrel [1] - Brent crude oil average price for the next year is projected at $68.89 per barrel, an increase from the previous estimate of $65.97 per barrel [1] - Brent crude oil average price for the year after next is projected at $58.48 per barrel, a slight decrease from the previous estimate of $59.24 per barrel [1]

Group 1 - Barclays has raised its Brent crude oil price forecast for 2025 to $72 per barrel [1] - The forecast for 2026 has also been increased to $70 per barrel [1]

花旗重申对布伦特原油价格的预测，预计2025年第三季度平均价格为每桶66美元，第四季度为每桶63美 元。 布伦特原油 ...

智通财经6月13日电，高盛集团预测，尽管美国页岩油供应强劲增长，但全球其他地区（美国页岩油以 外）的原油供应增速仍将更快，这将导致布伦特原油价格在2025年第四季度降至每桶59美元（WTI原油 55美元），并在2026年进一步下探至每桶56美元（WTI原油52美元）。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that after increased production during the summer, the fundamentals of the oil market are weakening, leading to an increased downside risk for the Brent crude oil price forecast of $65 per barrel for Q4 2025 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Interest rates and exchange rates: Despite the unexpected month - on - month decline in US PPI data in April and the relatively high US Treasury yields in May, economic data on June 4 showed signs of slowdown in the US job market and service industry, increasing the uncertainty of interest rate cuts. China's fiscal policy has been significantly front - loaded, and banks have entered a "low - interest - rate era". The implementation of the policy of significantly reducing tariffs between China and the US has short - term boosted domestic risk appetite and increased the demand for RMB financial asset allocation [81]. - Commodities: In the short term, commodities are bearish under the impact of the trade war. However, considering the improvement in the cost side, China's petrochemical industry chain is complete and still has a cost - competitive advantage [81]. - Equities: Bullish on China's consumption recovery (towards cost - effectiveness) and self - controllable industrial chains [81]. - Trade and oil demand: It is expected that after the oil price reaches the bottom in the off - season of the second quarter, it is expected to recover, which is beneficial to targets with upstream resources, such as PetroChina and CNOOC [81]. - Offshore oil and gas exploration: It is expected that the offshore oilfield service industry will maintain stable capital expenditure, and China will continue to increase oil and gas reserves and production. Bullish on listed oilfield service companies with low valuations, large overseas market potential, and internationally advanced technology, such as Offshore Oil Engineering, China Oilfield Services, and Bohai Machinery Equipment [81]. - Refining and chemical integration: Bullish on targets with strong hydrocracking capabilities and integrated refining - PX - PTA industrial chains, such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Tongkun Group [81]. - Cost - competitive advantage: The negative impact of ethane imports is expected to be repaired, which is beneficial to previously oversold domestic targets, such as Satellite Chemical and Wanhua Chemical, as well as natural - gas - related targets, such as ENN Energy and Jiufeng Energy [81]. Summary by Directory 1. Oil Price Review and Outlook - **Price judgment**: In May 2025, Brent crude oil was weakly traded, closing at around $63.9 per barrel at the end of the month. OPEC+ countries will increase production by an additional 411,000 barrels per day in June and July. The Fed continued to pause interest rate cuts in June 2025 as expected. The oil price has entered a short - term downward channel, and Brent crude oil may touch a low of $55 per barrel in the second quarter. In the long term, oil prices are greatly affected by the demand side. With the Fed resuming interest rate cuts later, the risk of oil price correction increases. It is expected that Brent crude oil will fluctuate between $55 - $80 per barrel in 2025 [3]. - **Supply and demand factors**: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June and July, and the production cut of 3.6 million barrels per day will be maintained until the end of 2026. US refinery processing volume improved in May compared with the previous month but was lower than the same period last year. China's crude oil consumption was sluggish, but imports improved. In April 2025, China's industrial crude oil processing decreased by 1.3% year - on - year, and imports increased by 7.5% year - on - year [3]. - **Other factors**: As of May 30, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield was about 4.41%. Economic data on June 4 showed signs of slowdown in the US job market and service industry, and the market increased bets on interest rate cuts. The US dollar was relatively weak in May. In April, the US CPI increased by 2.3% year - on - year, lower than market expectations. Geopolitical situations in the Middle East are expected to continue to deteriorate, and global trade frictions may escalate. The Yellowtail - grade crude oil in Guyana is expected to be launched in the third quarter [3]. 2. Commodities, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates - **Interest rates**: The Fed has gone through 13 complete interest - rate hike cycles since 1954. As of May 30, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield was about 4.41%. The inversion of the yield curve between 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasuries, which lasted from early July 2022 to the end of August 2024, has basically ended, but there was an inversion with 3 - month US Treasuries as of June 4, indicating a low market expectation of interest rate cuts [32][37]. - **Exchange rates**: In May, the US dollar index was volatile and remained weak, closing at 99.44, up 0.23% from the end of the previous month and down 5.07% from the same period last year. The offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar, closing at 7.20, up 1.01% from the end of the previous month and up 0.79% from the same period last year [38]. - **Inflation**: In April, the US CPI increased by 2.3% year - on - year, lower than market expectations. The US PPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year and unexpectedly decreased month - on - month. The Fed is still very cautious about inflation risks [44]. 3. Polyester Industry Chain - **Profit margins**: In May, the international crude oil price declined, driving down the prices of industrial chain products and weakening the spreads. The spread of ethylene cracking from naphtha was $151 per ton, down $12 per ton month - on - month. The prices of raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol increased month - on - month, and the average price of polyester filament increased month - on - month. The profit of the entire PX - PTA - polyester filament industrial chain was about $28 per ton, a significant month - on - month improvement [54]. - **Supply and demand**: As of the end of May, the average inventory of polyester filament sample enterprises was around 20 days, basically the same as at the end of the previous month. In May, the total supply of polyester filament was 3.25 million tons, up 0.7% month - on - month and 3.6% year - on - year. The average monthly capacity utilization rate was 90.6%, down 3.5 percentage points month - on - month and up 2.8 percentage points from the same period last year [64]. - **Exports**: In April 2025, China's polyester filament exports were 349,800 tons, up 5.59% from the previous month. From January to April 2025, the cumulative exports were 1.3405 million tons, up 6.99% from the same period last year. From January to April 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were generally stable, with textile exports continuing to grow and clothing exports still under pressure [69]. 4. Conclusions and Investment Recommendations - **Overall view**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, and crude oil may face pressure. - **Investment recommendations**: Bullish on companies with upstream resources, offshore oilfield service companies, refining and chemical integration companies, and companies with cost - competitive advantages [81].

高盛：维持谨慎的布伦特原油/WTI原油价格预测，2025年剩余时间平均为每桶60美元/56美元，2026年 平均为每桶56美元/52美元。 ...

路透调查：预计2025年WTI原油均价为63.35美元/桶，4月时预测为65.08美元/桶。 ...

印尼财长：预计2026年印尼原油价格为每桶60-80美元。 ...