Report Summary - The report provides an in - depth analysis of the asphalt market for the week of August 11 - 15, 2025, covering macro - analysis, multi - empty focus, data analysis, and future market outlook [7][60] - It is recommended to focus on the BU2510 contract in the range of 3400 - 3550 yuan/ton [7][60] Key Points from Different Sections 1. Market Focus and Macro - analysis - **Macro - events**: The US and Russian presidents are set to meet on August 15 in Anchorage, Alaska. Trump estimates a 25% risk of meeting failure and threatens sanctions if issues remain unresolved. Putin acknowledges US efforts for peace. The market has fully priced in the meeting, and different outcomes may lead to various oil price movements [6][11] - **Energy Outlook**: OPEC maintains this year's oil demand growth forecast and raises next year's. IEA raises supply growth forecasts and lowers demand growth forecasts. EIA lowers oil price forecasts for this and next year and expects a tightening US crude market [12] 2. Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: Low factory inventory and marginal macro - improvement [10] - **Bearish factors**: Below - expected demand and downward cost - side drivers [10] 3. Data Analysis - **Supply**: As of August 15, the weekly asphalt production was 58.8 tons, up 3 tons from last week. As of August 13, the开工 rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 32.9%, up 1.2 percentage points [13][22] - **Demand**: As of August 15, the weekly asphalt shipment was 40.20 tons, down 1.6 tons. The capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt was 17.10%, up 1.23 percentage points [23][26] - **Import and Export**: In June, asphalt imports were 37.57 tons, down 2.2 tons month - on - month and up 32.56% year - on - year. Exports were 2.97 tons, down 2.56 tons month - on - month [33][36] - **Inventory**: As of August 15, factory inventory was 71.1 tons, up 3.2 tons week - on - week, and social inventory was 134.3 tons, down 2.4 tons [47][54] - **Spread**: As of August 15, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing dilution was - 465.4 yuan/ton, up 138.6 yuan/ton. The asphalt - to - crude ratio was 55.83 on August 13, and the asphalt basis was 258 yuan/ton on August 14 [58] 4. Future Market Outlook - The asphalt market shows a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand this week. The overall inventory is increasing, and downstream demand remains weak. Crude oil lacks bullish support in the short term, and its fluctuations will dominate the asphalt market. Geopolitical changes should be tracked [7][60]

主要能源机构8月平衡表 姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号： Z0016296 2025年8月13日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 目录 CONTENTS 01 EIA 02 OPEC 01 EIA 1.1 EIA平衡表 供应 消费 平衡 平衡变化 2025Q1 103.59 102.16 +1.43 +0.26 2025Q2 105.06 103.71 +1.35 +0.08 2025Q3 106.11 104.49 +1.62 +0.88 2025Q4 106.63 104.53 +2.10 +1.03 2025 105.35 103.72 +1.06 +0.56 2026Q1 105.77 103.51 +2.26 +0.50 2026Q2 106.37 104.90 +1.47 +0.40 资料来源：EIA 全球原油平衡 -4 -2 0 2 4 21-1 21-7 22-1 22-7 23-1 23-7 24-1 24-7 25-1 25-7 26-1 26-7 全球原油平衡 预估值 EIA在8月报告中进一步全面强化了今明年每个季度供应过剩的 程度（其中今年106万桶/日→163万桶 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs maintains its 2026 Brent crude oil price forecast at $56 per barrel [1]

Core Viewpoint - Barclays maintains its forecast for Brent crude oil prices at $72 per barrel for 2025 and $70 per barrel for 2026 [1] Group 1 - The forecast indicates a stable outlook for Brent crude oil prices over the next few years [1]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report [2] - Report date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] Group 2: Market Data Price Changes from July 9 - 15, 2025 - WTI decreased by $0.46 to $66.52 [3] - BRENT decreased by $0.50 to $68.71 [3] - DUBAI decreased by $0.06 to $70.00 [3] - SC decreased by 9.30 to 518.20 [3] - OMAN decreased by $1.25 to $68.53 [3] - Domestic gasoline increased by 10 to 7990 [3] Other Price - Related Changes - BRENT 1 - 2 month spread decreased by 0.05 to 0.93 [3] - WTI - BRENT increased by 0.04 to - 2.19 [3] - DUBAI - BRT decreased by 0.47 to 1.65 [3] - SC - BRT decreased by 0.81 to 3.77 [3] - SC - WTI decreased by 0.85 to 5.96 [3] - Domestic gasoline - BRT increased by 40 to 3898 [3] Group 3: News and Forecasts News - Goldman Sachs raised its H2 2025 Brent crude price forecast by $5 to $66/barrel and WTI to $63/barrel, predicting a drop to $56 and $52/barrel respectively in 2026 [3] - US API crude inventory for the week ending July 11 was 83.9 million barrels, against an expected - 163.7 million barrels [4] - Trump pressured Russia to cease fire, and secondary sanctions would target buyers of Russian oil [4] - Egypt postponed some LNG imports due to a new terminal not being operational [4] - Iran may face severe sanctions if no agreement is reached by end - August [4] - US President Trump won't set up tariff exemptions for the energy industry [4] Regional Fundamentals - US crude exports in the week of July 4 increased by 452,000 barrels/day to 2.757 million barrels/day [4] - US domestic crude production in the week of July 4 decreased by 48,000 barrels to 13.385 million barrels/day [4] - US commercial crude inventory (ex - SPR) increased by 7.07 million barrels to 426 million barrels (1.69% increase) [4] - US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory in the week of July 4 increased by 238,000 barrels to 403 million barrels (0.06% increase) [4] - US EIA gasoline inventory for the week ending July 4 was - 2.658 million barrels, against an expected - 1.486 million barrels [4] - US EIA refined oil inventory for the week ending July 4 was - 0.825 million barrels, against an expected - 0.314 million barrels [4] - In China, refinery operating rates had mixed changes, with production and sales of gasoline and diesel showing different trends, and inventories of gasoline and diesel increased this week [4] Group 4: Weekly Outlook - Crude oil prices oscillated this week, with the monthly spreads of the three major markets at high levels [5] - The US plans to impose new tariffs on some countries from August 1, and other trade partners may face 15% - 20% tariffs [5] - OPEC+ is discussing pausing production increases from October, after restoring 2.2 million barrels of supply in September and waiting to consider restoring another 1.66 million barrels/day [5] - Global oil inventories increased this week, with significant increases in US crude and Cushing inventories, and decreases in gasoline and diesel inventories [5] - US oil rig count decreased by 1 in the week ending July 11, while the fracturing count rebounded [5] - Refinery profits in Europe and the US strengthened this week, with a sharp rise in the near - month spread of European diesel [5] - The fundamentals of gasoline and diesel in Asia and China are neutral, with accelerated inventory accumulation in China and a decline in refinery profits [5] - In the peak refinery operation season, the monthly spreads of crude oil are expected to remain at high levels, with WTI and Brent stronger than Dubai. The absolute price faces downward pressure in the medium - term due to OPEC's increased production and tariff policies [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - EIA further strengthened the degree of supply surplus in each quarter of this year and next year in its July report. Supply is expected to increase significantly, while demand changes little, leading to a continuous downward pressure on oil prices. Uncertainties mainly come from geopolitical situations and OPEC+ production compliance [9]. - OPEC's July report shows that global oil demand is expected to continue to grow in 2025 and 2026. Non-OECD countries are the main drivers of demand growth. Non-OPEC+ supply is also expected to increase, and OPEC+ needs to adjust production to achieve supply - demand balance [47][48]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EIA 3.1.1 EIA Balance Sheet - EIA predicts that the global crude oil supply will exceed demand in each quarter of 2025 and 2026. The supply surplus in Q4 2025, Q1 2026, and Q2 2026 is the most severe, reaching 1.07 million, 1.76 million, and 1.07 million barrels per day respectively. The average annual supply surplus in 2025 and 2026 will increase from 820,000 barrels per day and 550,000 barrels per day to 1.06 million barrels per day and 1.13 million barrels per day respectively [9]. 3.1.2 Brent Oil Price Forecast - EIA expects the average Brent crude oil price in 2025 to be $69 per barrel (previously $66), and to further drop to $58 per barrel in 2026 (previously $59). Although the conflict brings geopolitical risk premiums, increasing inventory will put continuous downward pressure on oil prices [10]. 3.1.3 Global Liquid Fuel Consumption Forecast - EIA expects global liquid fuel consumption to increase by 800,000 barrels per day in 2025 (previously 790,000 barrels per day) and 1.06 million barrels per day in 2026 (previously 1.06 million barrels per day). Non-OECD Asia is the main driver of demand growth, with India and China contributing significant growth [13]. 3.1.4 Global Oil Production Forecast - EIA expects OPEC+ production plans and non-OPEC+ supply growth to drive strong global production growth. Non-OPEC+ will lead the growth in 2025, with an increase of about 1.3 million barrels per day (previously 1.13 million barrels per day), and the growth rate will slow down to 540,000 barrels per day in 2026 (previously 230,000 barrels per day) [14]. 3.1.5 EIA Balance Sheet Changes - EIA has comprehensively raised the supply estimates for all quarters, while the demand estimates remain almost unchanged, further intensifying the supply surplus. The expected US production is in a downward cycle, reflecting the impact of falling oil prices on shale oil producers [21]. 3.1.6 Crude Oil Total Inventory - EIA expects OECD commercial crude oil inventory supply days to increase under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand. It is expected that the average supply days will be 61 days in the first half of 2025, increase to 62 days in the second half, and reach 66 days by the end of 2026 [14]. 3.2 OPEC 3.2.1 World Oil Demand Forecast - OPEC's July report predicts that global oil demand in 2025 will be 105.13 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.29 million barrels per day. Non-OECD demand growth will increase to 1.16 million barrels per day, while OECD demand growth will decrease to 140,000 barrels per day. In 2026, global oil demand is expected to be 106.42 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million barrels per day [47][48]. 3.2.2 Non-OPEC+ Oil Supply Forecast - OPEC's July report predicts that non-OPEC+ crude oil supply in 2025 will be 54.01 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 810,000 barrels per day. In 2026, it will be 54.74 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 730,000 barrels per day. The growth mainly comes from the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina [50][51]. 3.2.3 OPEC+ Production and Compliance - OPEC+ production in June was 41.559 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 349,000 barrels per day. Except for Kazakhstan, the other 7 countries in the OPEC+ 8 - country production cut plan generally well implemented the plan in June [52][54]. 3.2.4 OPEC+ Balance Sheet - OPEC's July report predicts that global demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2026. Non-OPEC+ and OPEC+ NGLs supply will increase by 900,000 barrels per day. To achieve supply - demand balance within the year, OPEC+ crude oil supply needs to increase by 400,000 barrels per day [57]. 3.2.5 OECD Inventory, Consumption Days, and Floating Storage - The report provides detailed data on OECD inventory, consumption days, and floating storage from 2022 to Q1 2025, showing the changes in OECD oil inventory and consumption patterns [58].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised its WTI crude oil price forecast for the second half of 2025 to $63 per barrel, up from the previous forecast of $57 per barrel [1] Group 1 - The updated forecast reflects a positive outlook for WTI crude oil prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised its Brent crude oil price forecast for the second half of 2025 by $5 to $66 per barrel [1] Group 1 - The adjustment in the price forecast reflects a positive outlook on oil market conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will approach $64 per barrel [1] Industry Summary - The prediction indicates a potential upward trend in oil prices, which may impact global oil markets and related sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will approach $64 per barrel [1] Industry Summary - The prediction indicates a potential stabilization in oil prices, which may impact global oil markets and related sectors [1]