Group 1 - The article highlights the increasing cyclical recession risks and suggests investors hedge through oil put options and gold long positions [1] - Goldman Sachs identifies four tactical key factors, including underestimated recession risks, with a 45% probability of recession in the next 12 months due to high policy uncertainty and weak consumer expectations [1][3] - In a recession scenario, the S&P 500 index could drop to 4600 points, and high-yield bond spreads may reach 788 basis points [2][1] Group 2 - Traditional hedging strategies may fail to protect against stock market risks, as recent correlations indicate concerns over U.S. policy impacts on governance and institutional credibility [3] - Gold prices are expected to rise significantly due to concerns over U.S. governance and aggressive Fed rate cuts, with potential prices reaching $3880 per ounce in a recession [4] - The current net long position in COMEX gold is at a 58% percentile since 2014, making it an attractive time to establish long positions [4] Group 3 - Oil price forecasts suggest Brent crude averaging $63 in 2025, with potential declines in a recession scenario, estimating prices could drop to below $40 per barrel [5] - Investors are advised to sell June 2026 Brent crude oil call options and buy put options to hedge against potential price declines [5] Group 4 - Four structural trends are enhancing the long-term attractiveness of gold and copper, including dollar asset diversification, increased defense spending, energy supply de-risking, and reduced copper investment [7][11] - The diversification of official reserves and a fivefold increase in central bank gold purchases since 2022 have driven gold prices up by 76% [8][10] - Increased defense spending in Europe is expected to support industrial metal demand, with a projected rise in defense spending from 2% to 3% of GDP [11] Group 5 - The electrification trend is anticipated to boost global copper demand growth rates by approximately 2 percentage points from 2024 to 2030 [13] - Copper prices are projected to decline to $8300 per ton in Q3 2025 due to global GDP weakness, but could rebound to $10600 per ton by the end of 2026 if no recession occurs [15][17]

美媒：众议院共和党计划增加1500亿美元的国防支出 金十数据4月24日讯，据Politico报道，三名了解相关进程的人士透露，众议院共和党人将寻求把五角大 楼的开支增加1500亿美元。众议院的这一举措对国防鹰派人士来说是一个胜利，他们一直推动利用共和 党对国会和白宫的控制权来最大限度地增加军事开支。众议院军事委员会将在下周议员们休会结束、各 委员会开始推进这项庞大的国内政策立法的各自部分时，对共和党和解方案中他们负责的那部分内容进 行辩论。 ...