【导读】美股震荡，中概股大涨 中国基金报记者 泰勒 9月16日晚间，美股三大指数震荡下跌，道指微跌160点，纳指接近平盘，标普500指数微跌。交易员在等待美联储决议之际按兵不动，暂不进 行大的押注。 一份稳健的零售销售数据对市场推动有限，美股在历史高位附近摇摆。 美国商务部公布的数据显示，8月份未经通胀调整的零售购买额环比增长0.6%。这一增幅超过了经济学家的所有预期。不包括汽车，销售额增 长了0.7%。 大家好，今晚继续关注海外市场的表现！ 根据CME的FedWatch工具，联邦基金期货已将至少降息25个基点的可能性完全计入。 交易员仍将密切关注美联储主席鲍威尔随后举行的新闻发布会，以获取未来货币政策走向的线索。关于今年及明年是否会进一步降息仍存不 确定性。本次会议之前，参议院已确认特朗普提名的斯蒂芬·米兰加入美联储。 Principal Asset Management首席全球策略师Seema Shah表示："尽管劳动力需求在走弱，但劳动力供给问题仍在抵消这种疲软，目前衰退风险依 然有限。此时若下调50个基点，更像是受政治压力驱动而非经济必要。更稳妥的做法是降息25个基点，让美联储在不对早期压力过度反应的 ...

Core Insights - Investors need to remain vigilant over the next 12 months to identify economic data that may threaten the record stock market rally [1] - Employment market data will play a crucial role in signaling potential economic cracks, with a notable statistic indicating that the probability of workers finding new jobs after unemployment is at a historic low of 45% [1] - Despite the S&P 500 reaching a new all-time high, there is a cautious sentiment among seasoned market participants due to concerns over the labor market, fiscal spending, and potential over-optimism regarding artificial intelligence [1] - The market may be underpricing recession risks, as indicated by the cautious stance of experienced market players [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a brief rally but ultimately closed lower, reflecting heightened concerns over recession risks despite expectations of significant interest rate cuts [1] - U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply across the board, with long-term bonds leading the decline, indicating a more pessimistic outlook in the bond market compared to equities, as funds are pricing in a recession rather than merely reacting to rate cut expectations [1] - Gold reached an all-time high, hitting $3600 per ounce during trading, signifying its transition from a commodity to a tool for hedging against systemic risks [1] Group 2 - Market participants are anticipating substantial interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve to address economic challenges, but data from Goldman Sachs suggests that financial conditions are already extremely loose, implying that further rate cuts may not effectively support the stock market as the underlying issue lies within the economy [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs credit strategists are urging clients to hedge risks as the yield premium on global corporate notes has narrowed to its lowest level since 2007 [2][3] - The narrowing yield premium on global investment-grade notes has reached 79 basis points, the lowest since July 2007, just before the global financial crisis [3] - Despite the significant narrowing of credit spreads and the S&P 500 reaching a record high, Federal Reserve officials have avoided signaling imminent rate cuts, indicating a need for more data to assess inflation risks [3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs economists still expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December, with two additional cuts anticipated in 2026 [3] - The report highlights that trade policy has become more predictable compared to March and April, allowing the market to significantly lower the pricing of recession risks [3] - As investors begin to digest the differentiated impacts across the supply chain, the effects will become increasingly important through industry-specific variations [3]

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank warns that the market is severely underestimating the likelihood of tariff increases on August 1, which could lead to significant market turmoil similar to last summer's crisis [1][3] - The current market pricing shows a low expectation for tariff increases, with only a 27% probability for the 35% tariff on Canada and a 42% probability for the 50% tariff on Brazil [3] - Historical data indicates that even mild underperformance in employment data can trigger substantial sell-offs, as seen last year when non-farm payrolls increased by 114,000, below the expected 175,000 [4] Group 2 - The current 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 4.97%, up from 4.52% on April 2, indicating a fragile bond market that could exacerbate concerns over fiscal policy if yields rise further [5][6] - Upcoming key events, including the Federal Reserve's decision, the U.S. Treasury's quarterly refinancing announcement, and second-quarter GDP data, could amplify market risks at the end of the month [7] - If the tariff increases coincide with these events, market sentiment may quickly shift towards risk aversion, similar to last year's patterns where weak manufacturing data and employment reports contributed to market volatility [7]

Group 1: Trade and Economic Policy - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that President Trump's imposition of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) exceeded legal authority, emphasizing that the Constitution grants Congress exclusive power over foreign trade [1] - The ruling indicates a potential shift in trade policy and could impact future tariff decisions and international trade relations [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes revealed that most policymakers acknowledged facing "difficult trade-offs" in the coming months, with concerns about rising inflation and unemployment [3] - There are warnings about increasing recession risks and the need to monitor recent volatility in the bond market, which could pose risks to financial stability [3] - Changes in the dollar's safe-haven status and rising U.S. Treasury yields may have long-term economic implications [3] Group 3: Precious Metals Market - International gold prices have seen a significant decline, breaking the key support level of 3280 and reaching around 3245, indicating a bearish trend [4] - The daily chart shows a four-day consecutive decline, with MACD indicators suggesting a potential shift to a bearish trend if it falls below the zero line [4] - Short-term trading strategies suggest selling on rallies around the 3282-93 range, with support targets set at 3260-3250 and further down to 3209 if broken [6]

Group 1 - The article highlights the increasing cyclical recession risks and suggests investors hedge through oil put options and gold long positions [1] - Goldman Sachs identifies four tactical key factors, including underestimated recession risks, with a 45% probability of recession in the next 12 months due to high policy uncertainty and weak consumer expectations [1][3] - In a recession scenario, the S&P 500 index could drop to 4600 points, and high-yield bond spreads may reach 788 basis points [2][1] Group 2 - Traditional hedging strategies may fail to protect against stock market risks, as recent correlations indicate concerns over U.S. policy impacts on governance and institutional credibility [3] - Gold prices are expected to rise significantly due to concerns over U.S. governance and aggressive Fed rate cuts, with potential prices reaching $3880 per ounce in a recession [4] - The current net long position in COMEX gold is at a 58% percentile since 2014, making it an attractive time to establish long positions [4] Group 3 - Oil price forecasts suggest Brent crude averaging $63 in 2025, with potential declines in a recession scenario, estimating prices could drop to below $40 per barrel [5] - Investors are advised to sell June 2026 Brent crude oil call options and buy put options to hedge against potential price declines [5] Group 4 - Four structural trends are enhancing the long-term attractiveness of gold and copper, including dollar asset diversification, increased defense spending, energy supply de-risking, and reduced copper investment [7][11] - The diversification of official reserves and a fivefold increase in central bank gold purchases since 2022 have driven gold prices up by 76% [8][10] - Increased defense spending in Europe is expected to support industrial metal demand, with a projected rise in defense spending from 2% to 3% of GDP [11] Group 5 - The electrification trend is anticipated to boost global copper demand growth rates by approximately 2 percentage points from 2024 to 2030 [13] - Copper prices are projected to decline to $8300 per ton in Q3 2025 due to global GDP weakness, but could rebound to $10600 per ton by the end of 2026 if no recession occurs [15][17]

Group 1: China Export Tracking - Goldman Sachs' China team launched the "China Export Tracking" series focusing on changes in China's export patterns to the U.S. amid escalating tariffs [1] - The report surveyed 46 companies whose products account for nearly 70% of China's total exports to the U.S. to assess the impact of trade dynamics [1] - Key questions included changes in export orders compared to pre-tariff levels, initiation of price negotiations, and views on alternative supply chains and inventory [1] Group 2: Tariff-Induced Recession Risks - The adjustment of tariff policies by the Trump administration has created significant uncertainty in the U.S. economic outlook, raising recession concerns [4] - Economic observers have differing views on recession risks, with some indicating a higher likelihood due to uncertainty, while others believe trade policies may not necessarily lead to a recession [4] - The report evaluates market vulnerabilities to recession and discusses potential protective measures for investment portfolios [4] Group 3: Company Updates - Cambricon's rating was upgraded to "Buy" due to growth driven by cloud capital expenditure, with expectations of profitability in 2025 and an EBIT margin of 26% by 2030 [4] - Weichai Power is expected to report a net profit decline of about 5% in Q1 2025, but a 20% increase when excluding the impact of Kion Group, supported by improved profit margins [5] - TSMC maintains its revenue and capital expenditure guidance for 2025, surprising investors amid concerns over tariff impacts on demand, though it anticipates a larger decline in gross margins than previously expected [6] - Fuyao Glass's Q1 2025 results met expectations, with limited tariff impact, and the company is expected to gradually restore new orders [7] - Ruifeng New Materials reported a net profit of 195 million RMB in Q1 2025, a 28% year-on-year increase, benefiting from the ongoing recovery in exports [8] Group 4: Global Economic Insights - The normalization of U.S. Treasury markets shows signs of recovery, but achieving a sustained rebound remains uncertain due to various risks [9] - There are no significant signs of large-scale outflows from U.S. assets, with recent market volatility attributed to leveraged investors rather than mass selling [9] - Gold prices have risen approximately 7% since April 8, supported by structural factors rather than speculative inflows, with expectations for gold prices to reach $3,700 per ounce by year-end [9]

美国企业能在多大程度上缓冲关税冲击仍然悬而未决 金十数据4月22日讯，由于利润率接近创纪录水平，美国企业有空间消化高关税带来的成本，利润将决 定企业能在多大程度上缓冲关税打击，最终将决定2025年的通胀有多高。根据最新的政府数据，去年第 四季度的税后利润增长是两年多来最大的。机构预计，即将发布的财报将显示，在特朗普政府对进口商 品征收巨额关税之前的2025年前三个月，盈利能力开始恶化。随着消费者在应对多年的高通胀后显示出 疲态，且有迹象显示衰退风险上升，企业能在多大程度上转嫁成本上升仍是一个悬而未决的问题。 ...