Group 1: Trade and Economic Policy - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that President Trump's imposition of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) exceeded legal authority, emphasizing that the Constitution grants Congress exclusive power over foreign trade [1] - The ruling indicates a potential shift in trade policy and could impact future tariff decisions and international trade relations [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes revealed that most policymakers acknowledged facing "difficult trade-offs" in the coming months, with concerns about rising inflation and unemployment [3] - There are warnings about increasing recession risks and the need to monitor recent volatility in the bond market, which could pose risks to financial stability [3] - Changes in the dollar's safe-haven status and rising U.S. Treasury yields may have long-term economic implications [3] Group 3: Precious Metals Market - International gold prices have seen a significant decline, breaking the key support level of 3280 and reaching around 3245, indicating a bearish trend [4] - The daily chart shows a four-day consecutive decline, with MACD indicators suggesting a potential shift to a bearish trend if it falls below the zero line [4] - Short-term trading strategies suggest selling on rallies around the 3282-93 range, with support targets set at 3260-3250 and further down to 3209 if broken [6]

Group 1 - The article highlights the increasing cyclical recession risks and suggests investors hedge through oil put options and gold long positions [1] - Goldman Sachs identifies four tactical key factors, including underestimated recession risks, with a 45% probability of recession in the next 12 months due to high policy uncertainty and weak consumer expectations [1][3] - In a recession scenario, the S&P 500 index could drop to 4600 points, and high-yield bond spreads may reach 788 basis points [2][1] Group 2 - Traditional hedging strategies may fail to protect against stock market risks, as recent correlations indicate concerns over U.S. policy impacts on governance and institutional credibility [3] - Gold prices are expected to rise significantly due to concerns over U.S. governance and aggressive Fed rate cuts, with potential prices reaching $3880 per ounce in a recession [4] - The current net long position in COMEX gold is at a 58% percentile since 2014, making it an attractive time to establish long positions [4] Group 3 - Oil price forecasts suggest Brent crude averaging $63 in 2025, with potential declines in a recession scenario, estimating prices could drop to below $40 per barrel [5] - Investors are advised to sell June 2026 Brent crude oil call options and buy put options to hedge against potential price declines [5] Group 4 - Four structural trends are enhancing the long-term attractiveness of gold and copper, including dollar asset diversification, increased defense spending, energy supply de-risking, and reduced copper investment [7][11] - The diversification of official reserves and a fivefold increase in central bank gold purchases since 2022 have driven gold prices up by 76% [8][10] - Increased defense spending in Europe is expected to support industrial metal demand, with a projected rise in defense spending from 2% to 3% of GDP [11] Group 5 - The electrification trend is anticipated to boost global copper demand growth rates by approximately 2 percentage points from 2024 to 2030 [13] - Copper prices are projected to decline to $8300 per ton in Q3 2025 due to global GDP weakness, but could rebound to $10600 per ton by the end of 2026 if no recession occurs [15][17]