Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in first-tier cities is rapidly recovering, with significant increases in transaction volumes observed in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [1][2][4]. Group 1: Beijing Market - In February 2025, Beijing's second-hand housing transaction volume reached 11,876 units, a year-on-year increase of 87.6% compared to 6,332 units in February 2024 [4]. - The market is experiencing a "small spring" phenomenon, with weekend transactions exceeding 1,000 units daily in late February [5]. - Despite an increase in listings from 146,000 before the Spring Festival to 153,000 after, about 50% of second-hand homes have seen price increases, while some are still adjusting [5]. Group 2: Guangzhou Market - Guangzhou's second-hand housing market saw a transaction volume of 6,278 units in February 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 29.04% [8]. - The average daily transactions from February 17 to 25 reached 381 units, with expectations for March to exceed 10,000 units [9]. - The cumulative transaction volume for January and February was 16,316 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.53% [9]. Group 3: Shenzhen Market - Shenzhen's second-hand housing transactions have shown a continuous growth trend for three weeks, with recorded transactions of 824, 1,261, and 1,408 units in consecutive weeks [11]. - The market has returned to pre-holiday levels, with a significant recovery attributed to the resumption of work post-Spring Festival [12]. - The overall sentiment in core cities indicates a strong recovery momentum, with an increasing number of properties seeing price increases [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the real estate sector [4][35]. Core Views - The real estate market is experiencing a "small spring" with increased transaction volumes and stable prices. The cumulative transaction volume of new residential properties in 30 cities reached 10.59 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 1% [1][9]. - The report highlights that 74% of real estate companies are expected to report losses, with 57 out of 73 listed companies forecasting losses [2][21]. - The real estate sector has outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.7 percentage points, with a 5.3% increase in the sector since the last strategy report [2][26]. Summary by Sections Market Trends - The transaction volume of new residential properties in 30 cities is slightly weaker post-Spring Festival but remains higher than the same period in 2024. Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen show varied performance in transaction volumes [1][9]. - The second-hand residential market is seeing significant growth, with 10.3 million units sold in 18 cities, a year-on-year increase of 31% [14]. Price Analysis - The month-on-month price changes for second-hand homes in first-tier, strong second-tier, weak second-tier, and third-tier cities are -0.2%, -0.7%, -0.7%, and -0.6%, respectively, indicating normal fluctuations [18]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Strategy - The report suggests a focus on the real estate sector, recommending stocks such as Greentown China, I Love My Home, and Beike-W for March [3][31]. - The sector's dynamic PE ratio for 2025 is projected at 26.1 times, based on the latest closing prices [26].