证券研究报告 | 2025年05月19日 统计局 2025 年 1-4 月房地产数据点评 4 月地产基本面边际转弱，期待后续政策出台 2025 年 1-4 月，全国商品房销售额为 27035 亿元，同比-3.2%；商品房销售面积为 28262 万㎡，同比-2.8%。 4 月单月，商品房销售额 6237 亿元，同比-6.7%，降幅较 3 月扩大了 5.1 个百分点；商品房销售面积 6393 万㎡，同比-2.1%，降幅较 3 月扩大了 1.2 个百分点。 观察相对历史同期的销售规模，2025 年 4 月，商品房的销售额和销售面积分别相当于 2019 年同期的 52% 和 52%，较 3 月显著回落，逼近历史最低水平。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 优于大市 |  | 行业研究·行业快评 | |  房地产 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 任鹤 | 010-88005315 | renhe@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520040006 | | 证券分析师： | 王粤雷 | 075 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][66]. Core Viewpoints - The sales performance in March 2025 showed continued marginal improvement, with a narrowing year-on-year decline in scale [4][5]. - The decline in new housing prices has narrowed across various city tiers, with first-tier cities experiencing a positive month-on-month price change for five consecutive months [4][20]. - The decline in development investment and funds available to real estate companies has slightly widened [4][39]. - New construction and completion metrics have shown significant fluctuations, but the year-on-year decline has notably narrowed [4][47]. - The report anticipates that future real estate policies will be crucial for stabilizing the market, with potential measures such as inventory reduction policies expected to be gradually implemented [4][62]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first three months of 2025, the total sales amount for commercial housing was 20,798 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%, while the sales area was 21,869 million square meters, down 3.0% year-on-year [3][5]. - In March alone, the sales amount was 10,539 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, and the sales area was 11,123 million square meters, down 0.9% year-on-year [5]. Investment and Financing - Real estate development investment in the first three months of 2025 was 19,904 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%, while funds available to real estate companies were 24,729 billion yuan, down 3.7% year-on-year [3][39]. - In March, the development investment was 9,184 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.0%, and the funds available were 9,152 billion yuan, down 3.9% year-on-year [39]. Construction Metrics - The new construction area in the first three months of 2025 was 12,996 million square meters, down 24.4% year-on-year, while the completion area was 13,060 million square meters, down 14.3% year-on-year [3][47]. - In March, the new construction area was 6,382 million square meters, down 18.1% year-on-year, and the completion area was 4,296 million square meters, down 11.5% year-on-year [47]. Price Trends - The average selling price of new commercial housing in the first three months of 2025 was 9,510 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [20]. - In March, the average selling price was 9,475 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7% [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the real estate sector [4][35]. Core Views - The real estate market is experiencing a "small spring" with increased transaction volumes and stable prices. The cumulative transaction volume of new residential properties in 30 cities reached 10.59 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 1% [1][9]. - The second-hand residential market is showing significant growth, with a cumulative transaction of 103,000 units in 18 cities, representing a year-on-year increase of 31% [1][14]. - Despite the positive trends, 74% of real estate companies are reporting losses, with 57 out of 73 listed companies forecasting losses for 2024 [2][21]. Summary by Sections Market Trends - New residential property transaction volumes in 30 cities are higher than the same period in 2024, with notable variances among major cities [1][9]. - Second-hand residential transactions are robust, particularly in first-tier cities, with significant year-on-year growth [1][14]. Price Analysis - The month-on-month price changes for second-hand homes in first-tier, strong second-tier, weak second-tier, and third-tier cities are -0.2%, -0.7%, -0.7%, and -0.6% respectively, indicating normal fluctuations [2][18]. Earnings Forecast - A significant portion of the real estate sector is facing financial difficulties, with 74% of companies reporting losses. The breakdown includes 1 company expecting profit growth, 3 turning losses into profits, and 32 continuing to report losses [2][21][24]. Sector Performance - The real estate sector has outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.7 percentage points, with a 5.3% increase since the last report [2][26]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on the real estate sector, highlighting companies such as Greentown China, I Love My Home, and Beike-W for investment opportunities [3][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the real estate sector [4][35]. Core Views - The real estate market is experiencing a "small spring" with increased transaction volumes and stable prices. The cumulative transaction volume of new residential properties in 30 cities reached 10.59 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 1% [1][9]. - The report highlights that 74% of real estate companies are expected to report losses, with 57 out of 73 listed companies forecasting losses [2][21]. - The real estate sector has outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.7 percentage points, with a 5.3% increase in the sector since the last strategy report [2][26]. Summary by Sections Market Trends - The transaction volume of new residential properties in 30 cities is slightly weaker post-Spring Festival but remains higher than the same period in 2024. Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen show varied performance in transaction volumes [1][9]. - The second-hand residential market is seeing significant growth, with 10.3 million units sold in 18 cities, a year-on-year increase of 31% [14]. Price Analysis - The month-on-month price changes for second-hand homes in first-tier, strong second-tier, weak second-tier, and third-tier cities are -0.2%, -0.7%, -0.7%, and -0.6%, respectively, indicating normal fluctuations [18]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Strategy - The report suggests a focus on the real estate sector, recommending stocks such as Greentown China, I Love My Home, and Beike-W for March [3][31]. - The sector's dynamic PE ratio for 2025 is projected at 26.1 times, based on the latest closing prices [26].