TOP100 房企 2026 年 2 月销售数据点评 [Table_Industry] 房地产 ——春节月进入淡季修整，关注 3 月"小阳春"成色 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 涂力磊(分析师) | 021-23185710 | tulilei@gtht.com | S0880525040101 | | 谢皓宇(分析师) | 010-83939826 | xiehaoyu@gtht.com | S0880518010002 | | 曾佳敏(分析师) | 021-23185689 | zengjiamin@gtht.com | S0880525040125 | 本报告导读： 目前看各城市在松绑限制性政策、城市更新、收购二手房等方面持续发力，关注 3 月"小阳春"成色。 投资要点： 注入信心》2026.03.01 房地产《期待更强政策干预，推动供需再平衡》 2026.02.26 房地产《沪"新七条"发布，小阳春可期》 2026.02.25 房地产《第 8 周成交回落、春节黄金周回升，整 体回稳不变》2026.0 ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|房地产 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 房地产开发与服务 26 年第 9 周 小阳春复苏强劲，行情持续有支撑 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-03-02 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -14% -6% 1% 9% 16% 24% 03/25 05/25 07/25 10/25 12/25 02/26 房地产 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]郭镇 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260514080003 | | | SFC CE No. BNN906 | | | 021-38003639 | | | guoz@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 邢莘 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260520070009 | | | 021-38003638 | | | xingshen@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 谢淼 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260522070007 | | | SF ...

Core Insights - The overall real estate market during the Spring Festival (February 15-23) exhibited a typical "holiday mode," with both new and second-hand housing transaction volumes in key cities at seasonal lows due to factors like holiday travel and temporary suspension of online signing in some cities [1][4] - A total of 100,000 square meters of new residential properties were signed in 21 key cities during the Spring Festival, showing a year-on-year stability in daily transaction volume [1][2] - Major cities like Shanghai, Wenzhou, and Jinan led in transaction volumes, while cities like Nanning and Qingdao experienced significant year-on-year growth due to low base effects [1][2] New Housing Market Performance - Shanghai recorded a transaction volume of 13,600 square meters, followed by Wenzhou at 10,800 square meters and Jinan at 10,100 square meters [2] - The overall new housing sales in Chengdu remained flat year-on-year at 5,400 square meters, with promotional activities driving some sales [3][4] - Developers engaged in various promotional activities, including discounts and community events, to stimulate demand during the holiday period [3][4] Market Outlook - Analysts predict a "small spring" recovery in the core city real estate market as pent-up demand is expected to be gradually released post-holiday [3][4] - The upcoming March is anticipated to see a surge in sales as developers aim to meet their annual performance targets, with expectations for various promotional policies to be introduced [5] - The year 2026 is viewed as a critical year for the real estate market to stabilize, with a focus on controlling inventory and improving supply quality [5]

专家 上海热点片区二手房成交分析-20260203 东吴地产_导读 2026年02月04日 17:12 关键词 上海 网签量 冰山指数 实时成交量 小阳春 挂牌量 成交量 学区房 前滩 杨东 连阳 张店长 王店长 毛店长 二手房成交 成交均价 房源 买家 房东 二手房 全文摘要 上海房地产市场近期展现出不同于往年的"小阳春"现象，尤其在一月内成交量显著提升，这背后有多重因素驱 动。首先，学区房需求的提前释放和去年四季度价格回调后的市场积极反应，共同促成了成交量和价格的双升。 同时，挂牌量的减少加剧了市场上高性价比房源的供需矛盾，导致挂牌价格上扬，不过成交价格相对稳定。 专家 上海热点片区二手房成交分析-20260203 东吴地产_导读 2026年02月04日 17:12 关键词 上海 网签量 冰山指数 实时成交量 小阳春 挂牌量 成交量 学区房 前滩 杨东 连阳 张店长 王店长 毛店长 二手房成交 成交均价 房源 买家 房东 二手房 全文摘要 上海房地产市场近期展现出不同于往年的"小阳春"现象，尤其在一月内成交量显著提升，这背后有多重因素驱 动。首先，学区房需求的提前释放和去年四季度价格回调后的市场积极反应， ...

Policy Insights - The implementation of the second-hand housing acquisition policy in Shanghai indicates a shift in local government strategies, signaling a bottoming out of prices for older properties in core areas[2]. - The model of acquiring second-hand homes in Shanghai is expected to be promoted in other key cities, laying the foundation for price stabilization of older properties in core urban areas[2]. Market Trends - In the new housing market, the overall transaction volume in 47 cities remains stable, with a year-on-year decline of 20.6% compared to the same period last year, indicating a seasonal downturn[5]. - For second-hand homes, transaction volumes in 22 cities showed a seasonal decline of 2.7% week-on-week, with an 11.3% decrease compared to the same period last year, although the decline is narrowing[7]. Risk Factors - Potential risks include a greater-than-expected decline in housing prices, exceeding anticipated debt risks for real estate companies, and a macroeconomic downturn that could be more severe than expected[3][13].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in major cities has entered a traditional seasonal downturn, characterized by overall cooling, increasing differentiation, and some bright spots. Supply and demand are contracting simultaneously, with developers showing low enthusiasm for sales and buyers exhibiting strong wait-and-see sentiment, leading to a prominent "look but don't buy" phenomenon [3][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The real estate market is experiencing a cyclical downturn, with new home supply and demand both decreasing significantly. In many cities, new home transaction areas have dropped by 30% to 60% month-on-month, and year-on-year figures show a 20% decline, marking the lowest monthly figure in nearly a year [4]. - Developers are entering a rest period, significantly reducing the scale of new launches, with cities like Shenzhen and Nanjing experiencing supply gaps. The average absorption rate for new projects in Shanghai was only 16% in January [4]. Market Differentiation - Differentiation is evident across various dimensions: - Between cities and within city districts, core first-tier and strong second-tier cities (like Shenzhen and Hangzhou) show slightly higher visitor and subscription activity, while weaker second-tier and suburban areas are experiencing significant cooling [3]. - Product differentiation is notable, with affordable housing and high-end projects performing well, while ordinary improvement and suburban affordable housing continue to struggle [3]. - The second-hand housing market is becoming increasingly dominant, with transaction activity significantly outpacing new homes [3]. Land Market Trends - The land market is characterized by slowed supply, bottom-price transactions, and dominance by state-owned enterprises. Most cities are seeing a decline in transaction volume, with only a few core plots attracting interest, primarily from state-owned and central enterprises [5]. High-End Project Performance - High-end improvement projects in core locations are achieving high absorption rates, with cities like Hangzhou and Tianjin reporting rates of 62% and 68%, respectively. Notable projects include Shanghai's Taikoo Li, which sold 50 out of 60 units on the first day, achieving an 83% absorption rate [7]. Second-Hand Market Activity - In January, the transaction area for second-hand homes in 20 major cities reached approximately 1,483 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 10% and a year-on-year increase of 25%, marking the second-highest level in 13 months [15]. - The second-hand market is showing a trend of stable volume and weak prices, with many cities experiencing price declines, particularly in lower-priced segments [17][20]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its seasonal downturn in February due to the impact of the Spring Festival, with both new and second-hand home transactions likely to decline. However, a recovery is anticipated in March, with the potential for a "small spring" in the market as quality projects are launched [22].

记者｜李莎 编辑｜周上祺 1月多个重点城市二手房市场悄然回暖。 中指数据显示， 1月北京、上海二手房市场维持一定热度，成交量分别达到1.5万套和2.3万 套，同比增幅均超20%；深圳二手房成交0.5万套，环比增长16%，同比增长7%；杭州二手房 成交也出现环同比明显增长的情况。 与二手房市场相比，受市场供应节奏等因素影响，重点 城市新房市场表现相对平淡。 在房价方面，中国房地产指数系统百城价格指数显示，受成都、上海、杭州等城市改善性楼盘 入市影响，1月全国百城新房价格出现环比结构性上涨特征，均价为1.71万元/平方米，环比上 涨0.18%；同期百城二手住宅均价为1.29万元/平方米，环比下降0.85%，降幅较上月收窄0.12 个百分点。 在受访专家看来，开年之后，房地产利好政策频出，释放清晰的"稳预期"信号。2月受春节假 期影响，楼市销售节奏或阶段性放缓，但春节假期之后，随着优质地块逐渐入市，部分房企促 销力度加大，市场需求有望逐步释放，核心城市"小阳春"行情依然值得期待。 （图源：ic） 1月多地二手房成交回暖 部分重点城市二手房市场正在回暖。 以北京为例，Wind数据显示， 1月北京二手房网签量为1508 ...

2026.02. 03 本文字数：2769，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 孙梦凡 "淡季不淡"，一线城市的二手房市场正走出独立行情。 在刚过去的1月份，北京二手房网签量超过1.5万套，已连续三个月稳定在1.4万套以上；上海二手房连续三个月成交超2.2万套；深圳二手房共计录得 6802套，创近10个月新高；广州二手住宅网签8881套，市场韧性同样较强。 在1月传统楼市"淡季"，北上广深二手房成交集体回温，释放出什么信号？ 业内专家认为，市场经历四年半调整后，房价水平正趋向"友好"，二手房进入探底阶段。房地产市场的"小阳春"行情正提前显现，二手房市场率先回 暖，核心韧性凸显，春节后挂牌量的变化，将成为观察供需关系的关键窗口。 京沪：成交攀升挂牌下滑 北京、上海两大一线城市的二手房市场，正悄然出现相似特征：成交攀升、挂牌下滑。 据北京市住建委网签数据，2026年1月份，北京二手房网签量达15082套，至此该数据已连续三个月稳定在1.4万套以上。从2025年11月到2026年1月，北 京二手房网签量分别为14446套、17200套、15082套。 北京本轮市场行情，起自2025年12月24日，当地推出新一轮 ...

在刚过去的1月份，北京二手房网签量超过1.5万套，已连续三个月稳定在1.4万套以上；上海二手房连续 三个月成交超2.2万套；深圳二手房共计录得6802套，创近10个月新高；广州二手住宅网签8881套，市 场韧性同样较强。 在1月传统楼市"淡季"，北上广深二手房成交集体回温，释放出什么信号？ 业内专家认为，市场经历四年半调整后，房价水平正趋向"友好"，二手房进入探底阶段。房地产市场 的"小阳春"行情正提前显现，二手房市场率先回暖，核心韧性凸显，春节后挂牌量的变化，将成为观察 供需关系的关键窗口。 京沪：成交攀升挂牌下滑 北京、上海两大一线城市的二手房市场，正悄然出现相似特征：成交攀升、挂牌下滑。 "淡季不淡"，一线城市的二手房市场正走出独立行情。 一线城市中的上海，二手房成交同样活跃，挂牌量也正出现下行趋势。 据上海房产交易中心官网"网上房地产"数据，1月上海二手房（含商业）网签成交22834套，已连续第三 个月成交超2.2万套，该成交量创下近5年同期新高。 据上海中原地产观察，以往郊区二手房交易量相对偏少，但近期部分区域如宝山，总价200万左右的房 源成交也非常活跃。目前市场上的低总价房源，经过近两个月的消化 ...

Core Insights - The second-hand housing market in key cities in China is showing signs of recovery in January, with significant year-on-year increases in transaction volumes [1][2][3] - The new housing market, in contrast, remains relatively subdued, with a notable decline in transaction volumes compared to previous months [4][5] Second-Hand Housing Market - In January, Beijing's second-hand housing transactions reached 15,082 units, a year-on-year increase of nearly 21% despite being lower than December's over 17,000 units [2] - Shanghai's second-hand housing transactions were 23,000 units, reflecting a 26% year-on-year increase, while Shenzhen saw 5,000 units, with a 7% year-on-year growth [3] - Factors contributing to the recovery include a narrowing of negotiation space for sellers, a significant drop in the number of listings, and a shift in purchasing plans due to educational needs [2][3] New Housing Market - The new housing market is experiencing a downturn, with Beijing's new housing transactions at 310,000 square meters, down 29% month-on-month and 20% year-on-year [4] - In January, new housing transactions in Hangzhou fell by 64% month-on-month, with only 1,346 units sold [5] - The new housing market is characterized by a lag in demand compared to the second-hand market, primarily driven by improvement needs from buyers [5] Price Trends - The average price of new residential properties in January was 17,114 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.18% and a year-on-year increase of 2.52% [4] - Conversely, the average price of second-hand residential properties was 12,905 yuan per square meter, showing a month-on-month decline of 0.85% and a year-on-year drop of 8.67% [4][6] Policy Impact - Recent favorable policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market have been introduced, including tax incentives for home purchases and support for urban renewal projects [7][8] - Approximately 50 new real estate policies were implemented in January, focusing on optimizing loan policies and providing purchase subsidies [7] - The expectation of continued policy support is anticipated to enhance market confidence and stimulate demand in the coming months [8][9] Market Outlook - Despite a potential slowdown in transactions due to the Spring Festival in February, a "small spring" in the market is expected in March, driven by pent-up demand and promotional activities from developers [8][10] - The second-hand housing market is likely to maintain its recovery trend, with increased buyer activity and improved decision-making efficiency among potential buyers [10]