记者｜李莎 编辑｜周上祺 1月多个重点城市二手房市场悄然回暖。 中指数据显示， 1月北京、上海二手房市场维持一定热度，成交量分别达到1.5万套和2.3万 套，同比增幅均超20%；深圳二手房成交0.5万套，环比增长16%，同比增长7%；杭州二手房 成交也出现环同比明显增长的情况。 与二手房市场相比，受市场供应节奏等因素影响，重点 城市新房市场表现相对平淡。 在房价方面，中国房地产指数系统百城价格指数显示，受成都、上海、杭州等城市改善性楼盘 入市影响，1月全国百城新房价格出现环比结构性上涨特征，均价为1.71万元/平方米，环比上 涨0.18%；同期百城二手住宅均价为1.29万元/平方米，环比下降0.85%，降幅较上月收窄0.12 个百分点。 在受访专家看来，开年之后，房地产利好政策频出，释放清晰的"稳预期"信号。2月受春节假 期影响，楼市销售节奏或阶段性放缓，但春节假期之后，随着优质地块逐渐入市，部分房企促 销力度加大，市场需求有望逐步释放，核心城市"小阳春"行情依然值得期待。 （图源：ic） 1月多地二手房成交回暖 部分重点城市二手房市场正在回暖。 以北京为例，Wind数据显示， 1月北京二手房网签量为1508 ...

2026.02. 03 本文字数：2769，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 孙梦凡 "淡季不淡"，一线城市的二手房市场正走出独立行情。 在刚过去的1月份，北京二手房网签量超过1.5万套，已连续三个月稳定在1.4万套以上；上海二手房连续三个月成交超2.2万套；深圳二手房共计录得 6802套，创近10个月新高；广州二手住宅网签8881套，市场韧性同样较强。 在1月传统楼市"淡季"，北上广深二手房成交集体回温，释放出什么信号？ 业内专家认为，市场经历四年半调整后，房价水平正趋向"友好"，二手房进入探底阶段。房地产市场的"小阳春"行情正提前显现，二手房市场率先回 暖，核心韧性凸显，春节后挂牌量的变化，将成为观察供需关系的关键窗口。 京沪：成交攀升挂牌下滑 北京、上海两大一线城市的二手房市场，正悄然出现相似特征：成交攀升、挂牌下滑。 据北京市住建委网签数据，2026年1月份，北京二手房网签量达15082套，至此该数据已连续三个月稳定在1.4万套以上。从2025年11月到2026年1月，北 京二手房网签量分别为14446套、17200套、15082套。 北京本轮市场行情，起自2025年12月24日，当地推出新一轮 ...

在刚过去的1月份，北京二手房网签量超过1.5万套，已连续三个月稳定在1.4万套以上；上海二手房连续 三个月成交超2.2万套；深圳二手房共计录得6802套，创近10个月新高；广州二手住宅网签8881套，市 场韧性同样较强。 在1月传统楼市"淡季"，北上广深二手房成交集体回温，释放出什么信号？ 业内专家认为，市场经历四年半调整后，房价水平正趋向"友好"，二手房进入探底阶段。房地产市场 的"小阳春"行情正提前显现，二手房市场率先回暖，核心韧性凸显，春节后挂牌量的变化，将成为观察 供需关系的关键窗口。 京沪：成交攀升挂牌下滑 北京、上海两大一线城市的二手房市场，正悄然出现相似特征：成交攀升、挂牌下滑。 "淡季不淡"，一线城市的二手房市场正走出独立行情。 一线城市中的上海，二手房成交同样活跃，挂牌量也正出现下行趋势。 据上海房产交易中心官网"网上房地产"数据，1月上海二手房（含商业）网签成交22834套，已连续第三 个月成交超2.2万套，该成交量创下近5年同期新高。 据上海中原地产观察，以往郊区二手房交易量相对偏少，但近期部分区域如宝山，总价200万左右的房 源成交也非常活跃。目前市场上的低总价房源，经过近两个月的消化 ...

郭毅认为，1月北京二手房成交升温主要受三方面因素影响。一是当下北京二手房市场已进入局部筑底 阶段，部分二手房源出现议价空间收窄情况，让部分购房家庭产生"抄底"紧迫感；二是市场二手房挂牌 量显著回落，相较去年同期的15万套以及前年高峰期的17万套，当前挂牌量下降到约13万套，推动市场 供需关系逐步趋向平衡；三是今年春节假期相对较晚，部分有子女教育需求的换房家庭，将购房计划前 置到1月执行，直接带动学区房需求在当月集中释放。 1月多个重点城市二手房市场悄然回暖。 中指数据显示，1月北京、上海二手房市场维持一定热度，成交量分别达到1.5万套和2.3万套，同比增幅 均超20%；深圳二手房成交0.5万套，环比增长16%，同比增长7%；杭州二手房成交也出现环同比明显 增长的情况。与二手房市场相比，受市场供应节奏等因素影响，重点城市新房市场表现相对平淡。 在房价方面，中国房地产指数系统百城价格指数显示，受成都、上海、杭州等城市改善性楼盘入市影 响，1月全国百城新房价格出现环比结构性上涨特征，均价为1.71万元/平方米，环比上涨0.18%；同期 百城二手住宅均价为1.29万元/平方米，环比下降0.85%，降幅较上月收窄0.1 ...

资料图 21世纪经济报道记者李莎 报道 1月多个重点城市二手房市场悄然回暖。 中指数据显示，1月北京、上海二手房市场维持一定热度，成交量分别达到1.5万套和2.3万套，同比增幅均超20%；深圳二手房成交0.5万套， 环比增长16%，同比增长7%；杭州二手房成交也出现环同比明显增长的情况。与二手房市场相比，受市场供应节奏等因素影响，重点城市新 房市场表现相对平淡。 在房价方面，中国房地产指数系统百城价格指数显示，受成都、上海、杭州等城市改善性楼盘入市影响，1月全国百城新房价格出现环比结构 性上涨特征，均价为1.71万元/平方米，环比上涨0.18%；同期百城二手住宅均价为1.29万元/平方米，环比下降0.85%，降幅较上月收窄0.12个百 分点。 在受访专家看来，开年之后，房地产利好政策频出，释放清晰的"稳预期"信号。2月受春节假期影响，楼市销售节奏或阶段性放缓，但春节假 期之后，随着优质地块逐渐入市，部分房企促销力度加大，市场需求有望逐步释放，核心城市"小阳春"行情依然值得期待。 1月多地二手房成交回暖 与二手房市场相比，新房市场表现则相对平淡，整体仍处修复通道。 部分重点城市二手房市场正在回暖。 以北京为例， ...

证券研究报告：房地产|行业周报 发布时间：2026-01-27 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 2343.49 | | 52 周最高 | 2436.17 | | 52 周最低 | 1870.99 | 行业相对指数表现 -8% -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 22% 25% 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 2025-08 2025-11 2026-01 房地产 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:高丁卉 SAC 登记编号:S1340524080001 Email:gaodinghui@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《地产延续调整 等待销售边际企稳》 - 2026.01.19 房地产行业报告 （2026.1.19-2026.1.25） 小阳春提前 关注度提升 ⚫ 投资要点 本周政策组合拳聚焦"稳需求、去库存"：财政部等三部门将换房 个税退税优惠延至 2027 年底，降低改善型需求交易成本；央行将商 业用房首付比例从 50%降至 30%，直接激活商办市场流动性。房地产 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate industry in 2025, suggesting a recovery phase characterized by improved market conditions and policy support [3][9][25] Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with key indicators reflecting positive trends, including a narrowing decline in housing sales and a decrease in the number of cities experiencing price drops [4][10][25] - The first quarter of 2025 has seen a significant improvement in macroeconomic indicators, with GDP growth of 5.4% year-on-year, driven by increased domestic demand and industrial production [5][21] - Central and local government policies are effectively stabilizing the market, with measures such as adjustments in loan limits and tax incentives contributing to a more favorable environment for homebuyers [9][25] Summary by Sections Economic Performance - In Q1 2025, the national GDP reached 31.8758 trillion yuan, growing by 5.4% year-on-year, with industrial output and retail sales showing accelerated growth [5] - The unemployment rate in urban areas has slightly decreased, indicating a stable employment situation [5] Real Estate Market Trends - The sales area and sales volume of new residential properties in 40 key cities increased by 1.2% and 4.4% respectively in Q1 2025, signaling a recovery in the real estate market [4][8] - The number of cities with declining new home prices has reached a new low since the second half of 2023, with first-hand home prices decreasing by 5.0% year-on-year [10][11] Policy Support and Market Dynamics - The central government has reiterated its commitment to stabilizing the real estate market, emphasizing the importance of housing consumption and urban renewal initiatives [9][25] - The report highlights a significant increase in transaction volumes in first and second-tier cities, with some cities experiencing over 20% year-on-year growth in sales [8][9] Construction and Investment - The new construction area for real estate projects has decreased by 24.4% in Q1 2025, reflecting a cautious approach to inventory management [15][21] - Real estate development investment in Q1 2025 was 199.04 billion yuan, down 9.9% year-on-year, indicating a trend of reduced investment in the sector [21][22] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the real estate market will continue to improve in the first half of 2025, with expectations for increased sales volume and price stabilization in major cities [25] - The ongoing adjustments in supply and demand dynamics are expected to lead to a more balanced market, with a focus on reducing inventory and enhancing land utilization efficiency [25]

Core Viewpoint - The recent land auction in Tongzhou, Beijing, indicates a resurgence in the real estate market, with developers eager to acquire land to meet the demand for improved housing quality in the region [2][4]. Group 1: Land Auction Details - The Tongzhou land auction featured a single plot sold to China Merchants Shekou for a total price of 2.7082 billion yuan, with a floor price of 31,192 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 16.28% [2][4]. - The plot had previously been listed but went unsold, highlighting a shift in market conditions from "no interest" to competitive bidding within a short timeframe [4][10]. - The auction attracted five major developers, including China Merchants Shekou and China Jinmao, indicating strong interest in the area [4][5]. Group 2: Market Context and Implications - The land's strategic location between the fifth and sixth ring roads of Beijing, near the Tonghui River and upcoming subway lines, enhances its appeal [10][11]. - The plot's development is expected to address the housing gap in the region and provide higher-quality residential options for residents [2][10]. - Recent sales data from nearby projects show strong demand, with high transaction volumes and significant price points, suggesting a robust market environment [11][12]. Group 3: Developer Activity - China Merchants Shekou has been active in the Beijing market, acquiring five plots in the past year, marking a significant increase in its presence [6][8]. - The company’s recent project, Yun Jing Lan Yue, achieved a sales rate of 90.43% on its opening day, indicating strong market performance [6][7]. - The competitive bidding environment and the successful sales of nearby projects suggest a potential recovery in the real estate sector, with developers looking to capitalize on favorable conditions [4][12].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a significant structural divergence, with new homes underperforming while the second-hand housing market shows strong recovery, particularly in first-tier cities [1][11][12]. Group 1: Market Performance Post-Spring Festival - New home sales in 30 major cities showed a slight increase of 2.7% year-on-year in January-February 2025, but still down nearly 40% compared to 2023 [2]. - The second-hand housing market rebounded strongly, with sales in 13 major cities increasing by 48.9% year-on-year in January-February 2025, and achieving the highest sales volume in nearly five years [3][11]. - The average daily transaction volume for second-hand homes post-reopening approached the high levels seen in October and November of the previous year, indicating robust market activity [3]. Group 2: City-Level Performance Disparities - Market activity varies significantly between cities, with first-tier and some hot second-tier cities maintaining high sales momentum, while most second-tier and lower-tier cities remain sluggish [5][6]. - Cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen continue to show strong performance in both new and second-hand home markets, despite some year-on-year declines due to high base effects from the previous year [6][11]. - The recovery in second-hand home sales in lower-tier cities appears to be primarily driven by low base effects, with limited sustained momentum [5][11]. Group 3: Price Trends - Overall, the housing market has not yet fully recovered, with some first-tier cities showing signs of price stabilization after four months of positive growth [9][11]. - In second-tier cities, only Chengdu and Xiamen have seen consistent price increases, while most others are either declining or experiencing only temporary upswings [9][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Structural recovery is expected to dominate the market in the near term, with strong performance in second-hand homes in first-tier and strong second-tier cities [11][12]. - Long-term market improvement will depend on price stabilization and the effective supply of new homes, particularly in core areas where supply remains constrained [12].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the aluminum industry, discussing demand changes and market dynamics as the industry transitions from off-peak to peak seasons [2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Seasonal Transition Indicators**: The aluminum market is entering its peak season, indicated by a slowdown in aluminum ingot inventory accumulation and a rise in downstream operating rates. As of February 28, aluminum ingot inventory reached 870,000 tons, up from 840,000 tons the previous week, but the accumulation rate has significantly decreased compared to previous weeks [2][4]. - **Downstream Demand Recovery**: The overall operating rate for downstream processing enterprises has increased, with specific segments such as profiles, aluminum plates, and cables showing growth. This suggests a gradual recovery in demand, which is favorable for aluminum prices [2][4]. - **Balanced Demand Structure**: The demand structure for aluminum is becoming more balanced, with a decrease in the share of aluminum used in construction (down to 24% in 2024 from 36% in 2021) and an increase in transportation and electrical electronics applications, benefiting from the growth of the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic industries [4][5]. - **Future Growth Areas**: The electric power and automotive sectors are expected to be significant growth drivers for aluminum demand in 2025, with electric power demand potentially accelerating and the automotive sector transitioning from electrification to smart technology [5][10]. - **Impact of Real Estate Market**: The real estate market is experiencing a slight recovery, with new housing transaction areas increasing by 21% year-on-year, which will help mitigate the decline in construction-related aluminum demand [7][14]. - **Photovoltaic Industry Growth**: The photovoltaic sector continues to show strong growth, with significant increases in demand for photovoltaic brackets and frames, driven by installation surges due to policy incentives [8][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Aluminum Processing Demand**: Industrial profiles now account for nearly 60% of aluminum demand, surpassing construction profiles, which have dropped to 40%. This shift is attributed to growth in sectors like photovoltaics, automotive, and consumer electronics [6][10]. - **Aluminum Plate and Strip Development**: In 2024, aluminum plate and strip production increased by 1 million tons, with half of this demand coming from beverage can materials and the other half from automotive and aerospace sectors [12]. - **Wire and Cable Market Growth**: The aluminum wire and cable market saw a 12% year-on-year increase, driven by investments in power infrastructure and the rise of large-scale renewable energy projects [13]. - **Forecast for Aluminum Products Demand**: Demand for various aluminum products is expected to continue rising in the coming months, supported by the photovoltaic sector's installation rush, real estate market recovery, and a thriving automotive market [14][15].