但是为什么很多人体感上感觉不到？核心逻辑在于，现在的主力成交不是我们身边的大多数。不知道各 位有没有意识到，最近咱们手机里的中介兄弟，很多人的微信名都加了一个后缀"亲属过户代办"，包括 不少门店门头都开始醒目地写着"高品质的亲属过户代办只要2000"。上海的手拉手交易一直都存在，而 且占比一直庞大，中介为什么突然看上了这个蛋糕？ 简单来说，也是迫于无奈。第一，各家中介为了做市占率，其他的二手房交易做不上去，用这个做点市 占率提升下数据规模；第二，不少朋友过户完之后可能就是再买房，也是一次机会；第三，一个关键因 素，用这种方式接触到真正的购房者。 现在上海二手房成交的火热，背后的代价其实是二手套均总价在持续下滑。各位知道吗，目前市面上 50%的购买力是200万以下的需求。 这个变化有多大？三年前市面上50%的购买力还是300万。楼市调整这几年，总价段直接下滑了100万， 而上海300万以下的客户占比已经超过了70%。这种变化非常的大，可以说大到惊人。低总价客群的购 买力在这一年急速放大，从而支撑了楼市的绝对成交套数。 这不是简单的房价下滑，而是刚需购买客群的本质性变化。现在的买房刚需，不是我们常规眼中的年轻 人 ...

美国二手房签约量在1月继续下滑，抵押贷款利率回落和房价涨幅放缓仍然未能调动买家的积极性。 美国二手房签约量在1月继续下滑，抵押贷款利率回落和房价涨幅放缓仍然未能调动买家的积极性。 美国全国房地产经纪人协会（NAR）周四公布的数据显示，二手房签约量指数下降0.8%，12月数据被 修正为下降7.4%。彭博调查经济学家的预估中值为上升2%。 NAR首席经济学家Lawrence Yun在声明中表示："负担能力状况的改善尚未促使更多买家入市。" 1月更疲弱的数据对于亟需春季销售旺季提振的房地产行业是个令人担忧的信号。市场分析师在去年年 底接受调查时预计2026年二手房销售将增长1.7%至14%不等。 美国全国房地产经纪人协会（NAR）周四公布的数据显示，二手房签约量指数下降0.8%，12月数据被 修正为下降7.4%。彭博调查经济学家的预估中值为上升2%。 NAR首席经济学家Lawrence Yun在声明中表示："负担能力状况的改善尚未促使更多买家入市。" 1月更疲弱的数据对于亟需春季销售旺季提振的房地产行业是个令人担忧的信号。市场分析师在去年年 底接受调查时预计2026年二手房销售将增长1.7%至14%不等。 然而，近 ...

供应端也出现显著变化，北京二手房挂牌房源量从去年同期的15万套降至当前的13万套左右，这一变化 既受成交升温带动去化增加的影响，也源于部分业主对房价稳定的预期而选择暂缓挂牌出售，整体市场 供应逐步收缩，供需关系趋向平衡，为价格企稳奠定基础。 这一成交表现与2025年12月北京发布的一系列房地产新政密切相关。新政包括商业房贷不再区分首套、 二套利率，二套公积金首付比例降至25%，以及12月30日落地的住房增值税优惠等。北京链家数据显 示，政策调整后一个月内，北京链家交易量较政策出台前增长33%，同期新增客源量、带看量分别增长 14%、18%。 北京链家研究院指出，市场回暖主要源于三方面因素：一是市场预期转好，房源调涨比例有所提升；二 是政策加速了客户看房、谈判和交易进程，带动集中签约；三是一季度市场自然回暖叠加今年春节偏 晚，原本节后释放的部分购房需求提前至节前释放，促使交易高峰提前到来。 入学需求释放带动优质教育资源片区成交升温，三里河片区已连续3个月单月成交量突破60套，截至 2026年1月27日成交量已达62套，全月有望突破70套。有子女入学需求的置业群体倾向于1月入市，既能 选择价格相对合理、可选房源仍 ...

西安1月二手房网签8643套，同比增长42.91%，同样增幅显著。南京成交超过7400套，已连续三个月成 交超7000套，成交量甚至超过了去年的"金九银十"。 天津、杭州也均实现逆势增长，前者成交5130套，同比增长达45%，是近8年来成交最高的"1月"；后者 成交近7000套，同比增长了15%。 2026年开年，二手房市场走出独立行情。 数据显示，刚刚过去的1月份，全国重点20个城市二手房成交面积1483万平方米，环比上涨10%，同比 上涨25%，在传统楼市淡季取得开门红。 聚焦到城市来看，北上广深四个一线城市二手房集体"爆单"。 其中，北京1月二手房网签量超过1.5万套，同比增长20.8%。自去年11月以来，其二手房成交已连续三 个月稳定在1.4万套以上。 上海二手房累计成交约2.28万套，同比增长24.18%，创下近五年同期新高；全月有7天单日成交破千， 且已连续三个月成交突破2.2万套。 广州二手住宅网签8881套，实现了同比、环比双增长。深圳二手房录得6802套，创下近10个月新高，同 比大涨45.5%。 二三线城市中，成都1月二手房成交1.81万套，比北京成绩还要好，同时其成交面积达到218.3万 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Zhejiang real estate market shows signs of recovery in January 2026, with significant increases in second-hand housing transactions, indicating a positive trend for the year ahead [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In January 2026, Zhejiang's second-hand residential transaction volume reached 27,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 16.1% and a month-on-month increase of 2.6%, marking a six-month high [1]. - Hangzhou, as the provincial capital, recorded a transaction volume of 7,063 units, with a month-on-month increase of 5.6% and a year-on-year increase of 17.1%, also achieving a seven-month high [2]. - Ningbo's second-hand housing transactions reached 5,205 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 36.3%, while Wenzhou saw 2,606 units sold, marking a month-on-month increase of 2.6% [2]. - Jiaxing and Huzhou reported impressive growth, with Jiaxing's transactions increasing by 41.9% year-on-year to 3,154 units, and Huzhou's transactions rising by 46.3% year-on-year to 2,010 units [2]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The recovery in the market is attributed to several factors, including a later Spring Festival holiday, which extended the post-holiday adjustment period, and supportive policies such as VAT and individual income tax adjustments [3]. - In Hangzhou, the demand for affordable housing is driving the market, with properties priced below 2 million yuan accounting for 49.5% of transactions, and those below 3 million yuan making up 72.8% [3]. - The trend of buyers moving towards lower-priced areas is evident, with over 52.2% of transactions for properties under 2 million yuan concentrated in the districts of Linping, Yuhang, and Xiaoshan [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - As the market enters February, seasonal effects from the Spring Festival may slow transaction activity, but demand is expected to rebound post-holiday, potentially leading to increased viewing and transaction volumes in March [5]. - The current market sentiment among buyers is cautiously optimistic, with a preference for reasonably priced and high-value properties, indicating a shift towards sustainable development in the real estate market [6].

证券研究报告 宏观 二手房交易初现边际企稳迹象 2026 年 1 月 25 日│中国内地 国内周报 华泰研究 易峘 研究员 evayi@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 吴宛忆 研究员 SAC No. S0570524090005 SFC No. BVN199 wuwanyi@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 王洺硕，CFA，PhD 研究员 SAC No. S0570525070003 SFC No. BUP051 wangmingshuo@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 changhuili@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 一周概览 农历春节对齐后，上周居民出行景气度维持高位，二手房成交有所回暖，而 汽车消费同比回落，建筑开工边际承压；国际油价、金价上行，国内农产品 价格回升，但部分原材料价格回撤；上周财政部亦优化实施服务业经营主体 贷款贴息政策、个人消费贷款财政贴息政策；后续重点关注财政发力节奏、 地产政策边际变化及地产市场成交改善的持续性。 高频经济活动跟踪 居民出行景气度边际回升，乘用车零售同比回落，建筑开工和新房 ...

在郑楠看来，库存与成交能够维持稳定，核心动力源于两方面：一是市场价格的平稳运行，二是买卖双 方预期的理性调整。他表示，当前市场虽仍处于买方主导阶段，但议价空间已显著收窄，从过往"大幅 让利"的博弈模式，转变为小幅协商的理性沟通状态。 以宋家庄片区一套挂牌价540万元的房源为例，郑楠介绍，该房源因具备"满五唯一"、户型优质等核心 优势，挂牌后迅速吸引5组购房者关注，并有多组客户进入面谈环节。不过，小业主仅同意最高20万元 的小幅让利，目前双方仍处于协商博弈阶段。 位于丰台区岳各庄片区另一家头部中介机构经纪人李文莉表示，历经多轮市场调整后，当前北京二手房 市场已趋于平稳，小业主挂牌价已回落至市场合理定价区间。在此背景下，购房者期望在挂牌价基础上 获得大幅让利的可能性已大幅降低。 受限客群提前启动置业计划 北京二手房市场的稳健韧性正逐步凸显。北京商报记者统计，截至2025年12月29日，北京2025年的最后 一个月二手房网签量达到14528套。这也是北京二手房连续两个月月度成交突破1.4万套。尽管从数据上 看，新政带来的效果还未直接体现，但来自北京多个热门片区的经纪人反馈，新政落地后的首个周末， 以刚需房源为主导的 ...

嘎嘎猛！！ 这几乎是今年以来，天河北成交最火热的一个月（仅次于3月的105套）！比去年同期（75套）暴涨32%。 刚刚过去的12月，天河北卖了近100套！ 最猛的一周，更是有20套成交！太疯狂了。 是不是出乎你的意料？ 毕竟很多人都说，天河北不行了 峻林拍出5字头单价，侨林苑、嘉尚、中怡城市花园这些标杆学位房，从高峰期的8-9万/平滑跪...... | 2025年 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 一河北手流小区成交 | | | | 制图：广州房产 数据：贝壳/裕丰/中介综合统计 | | | | 小区 | 套数(套) | 成交均价 (万/㎡) | | 穗园小区 | 35 | 4.19 | | 中怡城市花园 | 32 | 6.08 | | 金田花苑 | 30 | 4.37 | | 侨林苑 | 24 | 6.11 | | 磊向国际公寓 | 22 | 4.81 | | --- | --- | --- | | 侨怡苑 | 20 | 4.85 | | 芳草园 | 19 | 6.06 | | 金海花园 | 19 | 5.27 | | 帝景苑 | 16 | 5.08 | | 天誉花园 | 16 | 5 ...

Core Insights - The overall real estate market in China is expected to continue its adjustment trend in 2025, with second-hand housing in core cities maintaining stable volumes through "price for volume" strategies, while improvement demand becomes the main support for the new housing market [1][6] - The report anticipates that policy optimizations in Beijing and tax reductions will be implemented by the end of 2025, with further policy efforts expected in 2026 to stabilize the real estate market [1][6] Second-hand Housing Market - In 2025, approximately 1.74 million second-hand residential units are expected to be sold in 30 key cities, showing a year-on-year stability [1] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a 25% year-on-year increase in second-hand housing transactions, while the second quarter experienced a slowdown [1] - Major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen showed significant rebounds in transaction volumes, with year-on-year increases of 7% and 4% respectively [2][1] - The proportion of second-hand housing transactions in the total market is projected to rise to about 65% in 2025, up 4 percentage points from 2024 [2] New Housing Market - Improvement housing demand is identified as a key support for the new housing market, with larger units (120-144 square meters) seeing increased sales [3] - In 2025, 20 out of 30 representative cities reported an increase in the sales of larger units compared to the same period in 2024 [3] - The average clearing cycle for available inventory in 50 cities is reported to be 22.2 months, indicating a slow-moving market [3] Policy Changes - A significant policy optimization was announced in Beijing on December 24, 2025, aimed at stimulating the market through various measures, including lowering social security requirements for non-local buyers and supporting multi-child families [4] - Following the new policies, there was an increase in the average daily signing of new and second-hand homes in Beijing, indicating a positive market response [4] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a new tax policy effective January 1, 2026, which will impact the sale of homes purchased for less than two years [5] Future Outlook - The report suggests that policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market will continue to be implemented in 2026, focusing on demand stimulation and supply optimization [6] - The overall market is still in a "de-inventory" phase, with limited new housing supply in most cities, which may pose challenges for market recovery [6]

Report Summary 1. New Policies and Their Impacts - The 2026 national subsidy program for consumer goods replacement is released, with 62.5 billion yuan in initial funds. The subsidy scope for home appliances is narrowed to 6 categories, and new smart products are added while home decoration and electric bicycles are removed. New car purchase subsidies remain at previous limits with 12% or 10% of the car price [2]. - Starting from 2026, the VAT rate for selling homes bought less than 2 years ago is reduced from 5% to 3%, and those bought 2 years or more are tax - free. This policy is expected to boost second - hand housing transactions but may increase supply and put pressure on housing prices [2]. 2. Market Performance A - share Market - The Shanghai Composite Index closed flat, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.49%, and the total trading volume of the two markets was 21423.26 billion yuan, an increase of 29.88 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The ChiNext Index rose 0.63%, and the STAR 50 Index rose 1.01% [3]. - The total A - share market capitalization is 108.82 trillion yuan, an increase of 22.96 trillion yuan from the beginning of the year. The cumulative trading volume this year is 418.14 trillion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 17278.49 billion yuan [17]. Global Markets - European stocks and Hong Kong stocks led the gains. The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 1.74%, the FTSE MIB in Italy rose 1.14%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 0.86%. US, Japanese, South Korean, and Saudi Arabian stock indices led the decline, with the Saudi All - Share Index falling 1.03% [3]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield is 1.8537%, a change of - 0.8 BP. The average daily prices of R001 and R007 in the inter - bank market are 1.3782% and 2.062% respectively [3]. - The US dollar index closed at 98.2181, up 0.23%. The US dollar to offshore RMB exchange rate is 6.9923, with the offshore RMB appreciating 57 basis points [3][4]. 3. Sector Performance - The top - performing sectors are petrochemicals, automobiles, non - ferrous metals, and machinery, with gains of 2.63%, 1.35%, 1.31%, and 1.29% respectively. The under - performing sectors are commerce and retail, real estate, public utilities, and social services, with losses of 1.56%, 1.22%, 1.14%, and 1.13% respectively [3]. - The top three sectors in terms of daily net inflow of funds are household appliances, automobiles, and machinery. The top three sectors with net inflow of funds at the end of the day are national defense and military industry, non - ferrous metals, and non - banking finance [25]. - The top - performing themes are Yushu Robotics, reducers, and humanoid robots [25].