Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests short - term trading for both corn and corn starch. For corn, although the pressure on the import side has decreased due to the non - listing of Brazil's second - crop corn, the expected increase in the US corn ending stocks in the 2025/26 season and concerns about long - term import pressure may restrict prices. In the domestic market, the situation varies by region, and the spring sowing progress in some areas is slower than last year. For corn starch, the supply pressure has declined due to the decrease in the operating rate of enterprises, but the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory remains high [7][8][11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary Corn - **Strategy**: Short - term trading [7] - **Market Review**: This week, the corn futures fluctuated and declined. The closing price of the main 2507 contract was 2335 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [8] - **Market Outlook**: The non - listing of Brazil's second - crop corn reduces import pressure, but the expected 18 billion bushels of US corn ending stocks in the 2025/26 season restricts prices. In the domestic market, the situation in the Northeast and North China - Huanghuai regions is different, and the spring sowing progress in some areas is slower than last year [8] Corn Starch - **Strategy**: Short - term participation [11] - **Market Review**: The Dalian corn starch futures fluctuated and declined. The closing price of the main 2507 contract was 2685 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [12] - **Market Outlook**: The supply - demand situation of corn starch is weak, the operating rate of enterprises has decreased, the supply pressure has declined, but the downstream demand is poor, and the inventory remains high. As of May 14, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 142.1 tons, with a weekly decrease of 1.04%, a monthly increase of 2.45%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.22% [12] 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position Changes - The 7 - month contract of corn futures fluctuated and closed lower, with a total position of 1353678 lots, a decrease of 145730 lots compared to last week. The 7 - month contract of corn starch futures also fluctuated and closed lower, with a total position of 215408 lots, a decrease of 24779 lots compared to last week [18] Top Twenty Net Position Changes - This week, the net position of the top twenty in corn futures was - 124594, and last week it was - 176092, with a decrease in net short positions. For corn starch futures, the net position of the top twenty was - 3506, and last week it was - 9414, also with a decrease in net short positions [25] Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 201942 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 26620 lots [31] Spot Price and Basis - As of May 16, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2374.9 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 7 - month contract of corn and the spot average price was 40 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2800 yuan/ton, and in Shandong it was 2880 yuan/ton, with relatively stable prices this week. The basis between the 7 - month contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 115 yuan/ton [36][40] Futures Inter - month Spread - The 7 - 9 spread of corn was - 16 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 7 - 9 spread of starch was - 72 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [46] Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the 7 - month contract of starch and corn was 350 yuan/ton. As of this Thursday, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 436 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan/ton compared to last week [56] Substitute Spread - As of May 15, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2468.89 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2374.31 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 94.58 yuan/ton. In the 20th week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 160 yuan/ton, narrowing by 30 yuan/ton compared to last week [61] 3. Industry Chain Situation Corn - **Supply Side** - As of May 9, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 143.9 tons, a decrease of 6.40 tons compared to last week; the foreign trade inventory was 1.4 tons, a decrease of 2.10 tons compared to last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 421.6 tons, a decrease of 4.3 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 53.7 tons, a decrease of 26.00 tons week - on - week [50] - As of May 15, the national farmers' grain sales progress in 13 provinces was 97%, 3% faster than the same period last year, and the sales progress in 7 major producing provinces was 97%, 4% faster than the same period last year [65] - In March 2025, the total import volume of ordinary corn was 8.00 tons, a decrease of 163.00 tons (95.32%) compared to the same period last year, and the same as last month [69] - As of May 15, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 35.20 days, an increase of 0.06 days compared to last week, a month - on - month increase of 0.17%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.67% [73] - **Demand Side** - As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 41731 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%, and the breeding sow inventory was 4039 million heads, a decrease of 27 million heads month - on - month [77] - As of May 9, 2025, the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 84.33 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchased piglets was 58.46 yuan/head [81] - As of May 15, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 60 yuan/ton, and the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 928 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 568 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 129 yuan/ton [85] Corn Starch - **Supply Side** - As of May 14, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 452.8 tons, a decrease of 8.45% [89] - From May 8 to May 14, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 58.83 tons, a decrease of 4.84 tons compared to last week; the national corn starch output was 29.58 tons, a decrease of 2.97 tons compared to last week; the weekly operating rate was 57.17%, a decrease of 5.74% compared to last week. As of May 14, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 142.1 tons, a decrease of 1.50 tons compared to last week, a weekly decrease of 1.04%, a monthly increase of 2.45%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.22% [93] 4. Option Market Analysis - As of May 15, the main 2507 contract of corn fluctuated and closed lower, with the corresponding option implied volatility at 9.73%, a decrease of 0.43% from 10.1% the previous week. This week, the implied volatility fluctuated and declined, at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [96] 5. Representative Enterprise - The report presents the PE(TTM) analysis of Beidahuang (600598.SH), including current value, standard deviation, percentile, etc. [97][98]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - This week, corn prices fluctuated at a high level. The U.S. corn market was weak in the short term. In the domestic market, the short - term supply of corn decreased, and with the concern about wheat production reduction, the spot price of corn was strong. However, due to the upcoming rainfall in the production area and the impact of warehouse clearance, the supply of corn might increase in the future, and the momentum for the continuous strengthening of the spot price weakened. In the medium - to - long term, as the grain sources gradually transferred to channels, the import of corn decreased significantly, and the downstream demand recovered, the long - term corn price was still expected to rise [6][7]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Main Views - The U.S. corn export net sales last week exceeded expectations, but the good weather in the production area suppressed the price. In the domestic market, the previous rapid supply from the grass - roots level led to little remaining grain. As of May 8, the grain sales progress of farmers in 13 provinces was 97%, 4% faster than the same period last year; in 7 major producing provinces, it was 96%, also 4% faster. After the festival, the supply from the grass - roots level decreased, and the concern about wheat drought in the production area stimulated the strength of the corn spot price. However, the upcoming rainfall in Henan would relieve the concern about production reduction and suppress the bullish sentiment. In terms of demand, the replenishment demand after the festival might decline, and the processing demand was expected to weaken. The short - term U.S. corn was weak; the domestic corn spot price was strong in the short term but the continuous strengthening momentum weakened; in the long term, the far - month corn was still expected to rise [7]. 2. Market Review - The CBOT07 corn closed at 449.75 cents per bushel, down 19.00 points from last week, with a weekly decline of 4.05%. The C2507 corn closed at 2375 yuan per ton, down 2 points from last week, with a weekly decline of 0.08% [9]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Outer - market Corn - **Sowing**: As of the week of May 4, 2025, the U.S. corn planting rate was 40%, lower than the market expectation of 41%, higher than 24% of the previous week, 35% of the same period last year, and the five - year average of 39% [17]. - **Export**: As of the week of May 1, the net export sales of U.S. corn in the 2024/2025 season were 166.3 tons, compared with 101.4 tons in the previous week; in the 2025/2026 season, the net sales were 1.8 tons, compared with 24.5 tons in the previous week [21]. 3.2 Domestic Supply - **Grain Sales Progress**: As of May 8, the grain sales progress of farmers in 13 provinces was 97%, 4% faster than the same period last year; in 7 major producing provinces, it was 96%, 4% faster than the same period last year [24]. 3.3 Demand - **Feed Enterprises**: As of May 8, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 35.14 days, an increase of 0.39 days from last week, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.97% [28]. - **Processing Enterprises**: From May 1 to May 7, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 121.97 tons of corn, a decrease of 2.15 tons from the previous week. The corn starch operating rate was expected to decline. As of May 7, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 494.6 tons, a decrease of 5.18% [32][36]. 3.4 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: As of May 2, 2025, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was 425.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.6 tons, and the shipping volume was 79.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 39.10 tons. In Guangdong Port, the domestic corn inventory was 150.3 tons, a decrease of 13.40 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 3.5 tons, a decrease of 2.50 tons from last week; the imported sorghum was 22 tons, a decrease of 3.60 tons from last week; the imported barley was 60.5 tons, a decrease of 0.20 tons from last week [38]. 4. Spread Tracking No specific analysis content provided, only the spread types such as corn 9 - 1 spread, powder - rice spread, corn basis, and wheat - rice spread were mentioned [42][44].

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