瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.31」 玉米类市场周报 续涨动能略显不足 玉米期价冲高回落 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 3 Ø 玉米： Ø 行情回顾：本周玉米期货先涨后跌。主力2603合约收盘价为2226元/吨，较上周+4元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：美玉米步入出口旺季，阶段性供应压力较高。不过，美玉米出口状况良好，且USDA将 2025/26年度美玉米结转库存预测值从上月的21.54亿蒲式耳下调至20.29亿蒲式耳，低于分析师预 期的21.24亿蒲式耳，对美玉米价格有所支撑。国内方面，东北产区今年售粮进度普遍偏快，低温 天气利于玉米上冻脱粒，节前售粮周期同比延长，基层种植户惜售心理偏强，大多数粮源转移到 粮库和贸易企业，剩余未出售的都是优质粮源，贸易商多看涨后市，挺价卖粮心态不变。饲料企 业已有一定库存，深加工企业库存同比偏低，下游产品价 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.11.28」 玉米类市场周报 现货市场继续走强 提振期价同步收高 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 3 Ø 玉米： Ø 行情回顾：本周玉米期货震荡上涨。主力2601合约收盘价为2244元/吨，较上周+49元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：美玉米收割基本接近尾声，阶段性供应压力较高。且全球及美豆供需仍然相对宽松， 压制国际玉米市场价格。国内方面，东北产区低温利于新粮存放，种植户持惜售心态，上量一般， 贸易商为执行前期合同收粮相对积极，运力紧张问题持续发酵，导致东北粮源外运受阻，继续支 撑底部价格。受加工利润回升及开工率提升支撑，玉米消耗量持续增加，深加工企业及饲料企业 也在加大采购力度，收购价格延续偏强态势。华北黄淮产区新粮质量分化明显，种植户售粮节奏 偏缓慢，贸易商收购量一般，市场购销活跃度不强，饲企维持安全按库存随用随采， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn futures are in a long - term bearish trend. The supply pressure of US corn is increasing with the harvest, and domestic new - season corn is in the peak listing period with weak demand, though the start of purchases by direct - subordinate warehouses and the expansion of rotation procurement by the China National Grain Reserves Corporation support market sentiment to some extent [8]. - Corn starch futures are also bearish. With the increase in new - season corn supply, the cost support for corn starch weakens. After the holiday, the industry's开机 rate has increased significantly, inventory has slightly increased, and the market demand is squeezed by substitutes [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary Corn - **Market Review**: This week, corn futures adjusted at a low level. The closing price of the main 2601 contract was 2117 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from before the holiday [8]. - **Market Outlook**: Affected by the US government shutdown, the USDA did not release the crop progress report. Analysts expect about 29% of US corn to be harvested. As the US corn harvest progresses, supply pressure will increase, and prices will continue to be under pressure. In China, new grains in the Northeast are in the peak listing period, with high selling enthusiasm among farmers, weak demand in the downstream market, and continuous price cuts by deep - processing enterprises. In the North China and Huang - Huai regions, due to continuous rainy weather, new corn is difficult to preserve, and the price of wet grain has been falling. However, the start of purchases by direct - subordinate warehouses and the expansion of rotation procurement by the China National Grain Reserves Corporation support market sentiment. The corn futures price is in a bearish trend [8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Maintain a long - term bearish view [8]. Corn Starch - **Market Review**: Dalian corn starch futures fluctuated and closed down. The closing price of the main 2601 contract was 2384 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton from before the holiday [12]. - **Market Outlook**: As the supply of new - season corn increases, the cost support for corn starch weakens. After the holiday, the industry's开机 rate has increased significantly, and inventory has slightly increased. As of October 15, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.199 million tons, up 0.80 tons from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.67%, a monthly increase of 5.27%, and a year - on - year increase of 46.94%. The high inventory and the substitution advantage of cassava starch and wheat starch continue to squeeze the market demand for corn starch. The starch futures price continues to fall [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position Change - Corn futures' January contract fluctuated at a low level, with a total position of 769,696 lots, an increase of 212,858 lots from last week. Corn starch futures' January contract fluctuated and closed down, with a total position of 179,051 lots, an increase of 76,641 lots from last week [16]. Top Twenty Net Position Change - This week, the top twenty net position of corn futures was - 38,512, compared with - 30,774 last week, with a slight increase in net short positions. The top twenty net position of starch futures was - 49,015, compared with - 37,899 last week, with a slight increase in net short positions [22]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 36,709 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 12,806 lots [28]. Spot Price and Basis Trend - As of October 16, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,271.57 yuan/ton, and the basis between the January active contract of corn futures and the average spot price was + 154 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,600 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,750 yuan/ton, with a weak adjustment this week. The basis between the January contract of corn starch futures and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 216 yuan/ton [33][38]. Futures Inter - monthly Spread Change - The 11 - 1 spread of corn was - 9 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 11 - 1 spread of starch was - 10 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [44]. Futures Spread Change between Corn and Starch - The spread between the January contracts of starch and corn was 267 yuan/ton. As of this Thursday, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 490 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton from last week [53]. Substitute Spread Change - As of October 16, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,451.94 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,271.57 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 180.37 yuan/ton. In the 42nd week of 2025, the average spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 299 yuan/ton, widening 31 yuan/ton from last week [58]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation Corn Supply Side - **Port Inventory**: As of October 10, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 193,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 194,000 tons, an increase of 77,000 tons from last week. The total corn inventory of the four northern ports was 852,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 138,000 tons; the shipping volume of the four northern ports was 581,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 110,000 tons [48]. - **Monthly Import Volume**: In August 2025, the total import volume of ordinary corn was 40,000 tons, a decrease of 390,000 tons or 90.70% compared with the same period last year, and a decrease of 20,000 tons compared with the same period last month [66]. - **Feed Enterprise Inventory**: As of October 16, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 24.44 days, a decrease of 0.05 days from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.20%, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.94% [70]. Demand Side - **Livestock Inventory**: As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of August, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 million heads, a decrease of 40,000 heads from the previous month, accounting for 103.5% of the normal reserve of 39 million heads [74]. - **Breeding Profit**: As of October 10, 2025, the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was - 152.15 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 301.04 yuan/head [78]. - **Processing Enterprise Profit**: As of October 16, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was 53 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit was 263 yuan/ton in Henan, - 200 yuan/ton in Jilin, and 54 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang [83]. Corn Starch Supply Side - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of October 15, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 2.462 million tons, an increase of 5.48% [87]. - **Starch Enterprise开机Rate and Inventory**: From October 9 to 15, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 581,700 tons, an increase of 37,100 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 293,500 tons, an increase of 25,500 tons from last week; the weekly开机rate was 56.74%, an increase of 4.93% from last week. As of October 15, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.199 million tons, up 0.80 tons from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.67%, a monthly increase of 5.27%, and a year - on - year increase of 46.94% [91]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - As of October 17, the main 2601 contract of corn fluctuated at a low level, and the corresponding option implied volatility was 10.87%, a recovery of 1.15% from 9.72% last week. This week, the implied volatility fluctuated and recovered, at a slightly high level compared with the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [94].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests short - term trading for both corn and corn starch. For corn, although the pressure on the import side has decreased due to the non - listing of Brazil's second - crop corn, the expected increase in the US corn ending stocks in the 2025/26 season and concerns about long - term import pressure may restrict prices. In the domestic market, the situation varies by region, and the spring sowing progress in some areas is slower than last year. For corn starch, the supply pressure has declined due to the decrease in the operating rate of enterprises, but the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory remains high [7][8][11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary Corn - **Strategy**: Short - term trading [7] - **Market Review**: This week, the corn futures fluctuated and declined. The closing price of the main 2507 contract was 2335 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [8] - **Market Outlook**: The non - listing of Brazil's second - crop corn reduces import pressure, but the expected 18 billion bushels of US corn ending stocks in the 2025/26 season restricts prices. In the domestic market, the situation in the Northeast and North China - Huanghuai regions is different, and the spring sowing progress in some areas is slower than last year [8] Corn Starch - **Strategy**: Short - term participation [11] - **Market Review**: The Dalian corn starch futures fluctuated and declined. The closing price of the main 2507 contract was 2685 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [12] - **Market Outlook**: The supply - demand situation of corn starch is weak, the operating rate of enterprises has decreased, the supply pressure has declined, but the downstream demand is poor, and the inventory remains high. As of May 14, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 142.1 tons, with a weekly decrease of 1.04%, a monthly increase of 2.45%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.22% [12] 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position Changes - The 7 - month contract of corn futures fluctuated and closed lower, with a total position of 1353678 lots, a decrease of 145730 lots compared to last week. The 7 - month contract of corn starch futures also fluctuated and closed lower, with a total position of 215408 lots, a decrease of 24779 lots compared to last week [18] Top Twenty Net Position Changes - This week, the net position of the top twenty in corn futures was - 124594, and last week it was - 176092, with a decrease in net short positions. For corn starch futures, the net position of the top twenty was - 3506, and last week it was - 9414, also with a decrease in net short positions [25] Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 201942 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 26620 lots [31] Spot Price and Basis - As of May 16, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2374.9 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 7 - month contract of corn and the spot average price was 40 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2800 yuan/ton, and in Shandong it was 2880 yuan/ton, with relatively stable prices this week. The basis between the 7 - month contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 115 yuan/ton [36][40] Futures Inter - month Spread - The 7 - 9 spread of corn was - 16 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 7 - 9 spread of starch was - 72 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [46] Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the 7 - month contract of starch and corn was 350 yuan/ton. As of this Thursday, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 436 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan/ton compared to last week [56] Substitute Spread - As of May 15, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2468.89 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2374.31 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 94.58 yuan/ton. In the 20th week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 160 yuan/ton, narrowing by 30 yuan/ton compared to last week [61] 3. Industry Chain Situation Corn - **Supply Side** - As of May 9, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 143.9 tons, a decrease of 6.40 tons compared to last week; the foreign trade inventory was 1.4 tons, a decrease of 2.10 tons compared to last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 421.6 tons, a decrease of 4.3 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 53.7 tons, a decrease of 26.00 tons week - on - week [50] - As of May 15, the national farmers' grain sales progress in 13 provinces was 97%, 3% faster than the same period last year, and the sales progress in 7 major producing provinces was 97%, 4% faster than the same period last year [65] - In March 2025, the total import volume of ordinary corn was 8.00 tons, a decrease of 163.00 tons (95.32%) compared to the same period last year, and the same as last month [69] - As of May 15, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 35.20 days, an increase of 0.06 days compared to last week, a month - on - month increase of 0.17%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.67% [73] - **Demand Side** - As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 41731 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%, and the breeding sow inventory was 4039 million heads, a decrease of 27 million heads month - on - month [77] - As of May 9, 2025, the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 84.33 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchased piglets was 58.46 yuan/head [81] - As of May 15, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 60 yuan/ton, and the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 928 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 568 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 129 yuan/ton [85] Corn Starch - **Supply Side** - As of May 14, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 452.8 tons, a decrease of 8.45% [89] - From May 8 to May 14, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 58.83 tons, a decrease of 4.84 tons compared to last week; the national corn starch output was 29.58 tons, a decrease of 2.97 tons compared to last week; the weekly operating rate was 57.17%, a decrease of 5.74% compared to last week. As of May 14, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 142.1 tons, a decrease of 1.50 tons compared to last week, a weekly decrease of 1.04%, a monthly increase of 2.45%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.22% [93] 4. Option Market Analysis - As of May 15, the main 2507 contract of corn fluctuated and closed lower, with the corresponding option implied volatility at 9.73%, a decrease of 0.43% from 10.1% the previous week. This week, the implied volatility fluctuated and declined, at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [96] 5. Representative Enterprise - The report presents the PE(TTM) analysis of Beidahuang (600598.SH), including current value, standard deviation, percentile, etc. [97][98]