大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 9 月 29 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 研究员：刘大勇 期货从业证号： F03107370 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/9/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2135 | -4 | -0.19% | 207,471 | -4.39% | 544,713 | 1.28% | | C2605 | | 2203 | -2 | -0.09% | 29,216 | 39.44% | 103,043 | 1.08% | | C2509 | | 2227 | -3 | -0.13% | 419 | -19.42% | 2,069 | 3.76% | | CS2601 | | 2458 | -4 | -0.16% | 38,555 | 12.98% | 82, ...

一、行情回顾 据外媒报道，谷物贸易协会Coceral在一份报告中称，2025年欧盟和英国玉米产量预计为5670万吨，低 于6月预估的6060万吨。 三、机构观点 南华期货（603093）：辽宁、黑龙江东部等地新粮陆续上市。华北地区河南、山东等地基层新玉米陆续 开始上市，大量上市预计九月底开始。销区市场玉米价格暂时稳定，刚需补库。【南华观点】新粮逐步 上市，盘面延续弱势。 光大期货：技术上，玉米11月合约自9月初遇阻下行，期价已连续近一周的时间处于下行过程中，短期 市场关注1月合约能否突破8月中旬形成的价格低位。短期来看，11月合约空头主力减仓离场，警惕价格 急跌后的反弹表现，中期操作延续空头思路。 上一交易日，玉米期货主力合约收涨0.65%至2177元/吨。 二、基本面汇总 阿根廷布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所周四在周度报告表示，本周该国主要农业生产区的玉米种植在周末暴 风雨到来之前迅速推进。预计本周末出现的暴风雨料令当地作物种植暂停。该交易所预计，阿根廷 2025/26年度玉米作物种植面积料为780万公顷(1930万英亩)，将为该国玉米种植面积的第二纪录高位。 美国农业部（USDA）公布数据，民间出口商报告对墨西 ...

国外市场，周一（7月7日），芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）玉米期货收盘下跌，其中基准期约收低 3.7%，主要受到美国玉米产区天气良好的影响。交易商表示，随着玉米作物正进入关键的授粉期，天 气状况看起来并不危险。 二、基本面汇总 一、行情回顾 国内市场，上一交易日（7月7日），玉米期货主力合约收跌1.36%至2326元/吨。 数据显示，截至7月5日，巴西一茬玉米收割率为97.2%，上周为95.4%，去年同期为96.8%，五年均值为 96.5%；二茬玉米收割率为27.7%，上周为17%，去年同期为61.1%，五年均值为39.5%。 国投期货：7月1日、4日两场中储粮拍卖，成交率高，且大幅溢价，一定程度上影响了市场预期，部分 基层贸易商增加供应。山东现货，上周开始逐步增加，周末及本周一早间剩余车辆数分别为494、686、 482车。库存方面，南北港库存小幅攀升，需求端稍显疲软。今日中储粮还将举办玉米销售拍卖，供给 持续增加。当前玉米市场整体矛盾不大，流通环节供应投放后，玉米期货或继续震荡行情。 美国农业部数据显示，截至2025年7月3日当周，美国玉米出口检验量为1491062吨，前一周修正后为 1380943吨，初值 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests short - term trading for both corn and corn starch. For corn, although the pressure on the import side has decreased due to the non - listing of Brazil's second - crop corn, the expected increase in the US corn ending stocks in the 2025/26 season and concerns about long - term import pressure may restrict prices. In the domestic market, the situation varies by region, and the spring sowing progress in some areas is slower than last year. For corn starch, the supply pressure has declined due to the decrease in the operating rate of enterprises, but the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory remains high [7][8][11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary Corn - **Strategy**: Short - term trading [7] - **Market Review**: This week, the corn futures fluctuated and declined. The closing price of the main 2507 contract was 2335 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [8] - **Market Outlook**: The non - listing of Brazil's second - crop corn reduces import pressure, but the expected 18 billion bushels of US corn ending stocks in the 2025/26 season restricts prices. In the domestic market, the situation in the Northeast and North China - Huanghuai regions is different, and the spring sowing progress in some areas is slower than last year [8] Corn Starch - **Strategy**: Short - term participation [11] - **Market Review**: The Dalian corn starch futures fluctuated and declined. The closing price of the main 2507 contract was 2685 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [12] - **Market Outlook**: The supply - demand situation of corn starch is weak, the operating rate of enterprises has decreased, the supply pressure has declined, but the downstream demand is poor, and the inventory remains high. As of May 14, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 142.1 tons, with a weekly decrease of 1.04%, a monthly increase of 2.45%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.22% [12] 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position Changes - The 7 - month contract of corn futures fluctuated and closed lower, with a total position of 1353678 lots, a decrease of 145730 lots compared to last week. The 7 - month contract of corn starch futures also fluctuated and closed lower, with a total position of 215408 lots, a decrease of 24779 lots compared to last week [18] Top Twenty Net Position Changes - This week, the net position of the top twenty in corn futures was - 124594, and last week it was - 176092, with a decrease in net short positions. For corn starch futures, the net position of the top twenty was - 3506, and last week it was - 9414, also with a decrease in net short positions [25] Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 201942 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 26620 lots [31] Spot Price and Basis - As of May 16, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2374.9 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 7 - month contract of corn and the spot average price was 40 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2800 yuan/ton, and in Shandong it was 2880 yuan/ton, with relatively stable prices this week. The basis between the 7 - month contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 115 yuan/ton [36][40] Futures Inter - month Spread - The 7 - 9 spread of corn was - 16 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 7 - 9 spread of starch was - 72 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [46] Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the 7 - month contract of starch and corn was 350 yuan/ton. As of this Thursday, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 436 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan/ton compared to last week [56] Substitute Spread - As of May 15, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2468.89 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2374.31 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 94.58 yuan/ton. In the 20th week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 160 yuan/ton, narrowing by 30 yuan/ton compared to last week [61] 3. Industry Chain Situation Corn - **Supply Side** - As of May 9, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 143.9 tons, a decrease of 6.40 tons compared to last week; the foreign trade inventory was 1.4 tons, a decrease of 2.10 tons compared to last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 421.6 tons, a decrease of 4.3 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 53.7 tons, a decrease of 26.00 tons week - on - week [50] - As of May 15, the national farmers' grain sales progress in 13 provinces was 97%, 3% faster than the same period last year, and the sales progress in 7 major producing provinces was 97%, 4% faster than the same period last year [65] - In March 2025, the total import volume of ordinary corn was 8.00 tons, a decrease of 163.00 tons (95.32%) compared to the same period last year, and the same as last month [69] - As of May 15, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 35.20 days, an increase of 0.06 days compared to last week, a month - on - month increase of 0.17%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.67% [73] - **Demand Side** - As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 41731 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%, and the breeding sow inventory was 4039 million heads, a decrease of 27 million heads month - on - month [77] - As of May 9, 2025, the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 84.33 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchased piglets was 58.46 yuan/head [81] - As of May 15, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 60 yuan/ton, and the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 928 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 568 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 129 yuan/ton [85] Corn Starch - **Supply Side** - As of May 14, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 452.8 tons, a decrease of 8.45% [89] - From May 8 to May 14, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 58.83 tons, a decrease of 4.84 tons compared to last week; the national corn starch output was 29.58 tons, a decrease of 2.97 tons compared to last week; the weekly operating rate was 57.17%, a decrease of 5.74% compared to last week. As of May 14, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 142.1 tons, a decrease of 1.50 tons compared to last week, a weekly decrease of 1.04%, a monthly increase of 2.45%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.22% [93] 4. Option Market Analysis - As of May 15, the main 2507 contract of corn fluctuated and closed lower, with the corresponding option implied volatility at 9.73%, a decrease of 0.43% from 10.1% the previous week. This week, the implied volatility fluctuated and declined, at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [96] 5. Representative Enterprise - The report presents the PE(TTM) analysis of Beidahuang (600598.SH), including current value, standard deviation, percentile, etc. [97][98]

看涨动能减弱，玉米高位震荡 玉米周报 20250512 正信期货研究院—农产品小组 23 主要观点 行情回顾 基本面分析 1目录 CONTENTS PPT模板：www.1ppt.com/moban/PPT素材：www.1ppt.com/sucai/ PPT背景：www.1ppt.com/beijing/PPT图表：www.1ppt.com/tubiao/ PPT下载：www.1ppt.com/xiazai/PPT教程：www.1ppt.com/powerpoint/ 资料下载：www.1ppt.com/ziliao/范文下载：www.1ppt.com/fanwen/ 试卷下载：www.1ppt.com/shiti/教案下载：www.1ppt.com/jiaoan/ PPT论坛：www.1ppt.cnPPT课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/ 语文课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yuwen/数学课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/shuxue/ 英语课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yingyu/美术课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/meishu/ 科学 ...

产区上量偏少支撑现货，盘面大幅走高 玉米周报 20250428 正信期货研究院—农产品小组 CBOT07玉米 C2507玉米 23 主要观点 行情回顾 基本面分析 1目录 CONTENTS PPT模板：www.1ppt.com/moban/PPT素材：www.1ppt.com/sucai/ PPT背景：www.1ppt.com/beijing/PPT图表：www.1ppt.com/tubiao/ PPT下载：www.1ppt.com/xiazai/PPT教程：www.1ppt.com/powerpoint/ 资料下载：www.1ppt.com/ziliao/范文下载：www.1ppt.com/fanwen/ 试卷下载：www.1ppt.com/shiti/教案下载：www.1ppt.com/jiaoan/ PPT论坛：www.1ppt.cnPPT课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/ 语文课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yuwen/数学课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/shuxue/ 英语课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yingyu/美术课件：www.1ppt. ...