热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：CFC商品策略研究 作者 | 中信建投期货 研究发展部 陈宇灏 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可〔2011〕1461 号 本报告完成时间 | 2026年2月27日 11 中信建投刷货 玉米:节后启动 复苏缓慢,玉米市场高位整理 分析师:陈宇灏 期货交易咨询从业信息:Z0019939 2026年2月27日 D 中信建投期货 | | 市场与判断 | 上游生产 | 储存贸易 | 下游需求 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 目录 CONTENTS | 期现价格 | 生产监测 | 国储拍卖 | 饲用需求 | | | 期限结构 | | 国内贸易 | 深加工需求 | | | 市场节奏 | | 进口情况 | 国内替代 | | | 核心逻辑和判断 | 天气 | 全球平衡 | | | 作者:属字题 服务交易资讯认安信息: 20019939 | 的意識性、有效性,意想性能任何保证。期出有风险、入市管理模。 | 风险领导:本和负荷斯烈文易的贸易服务,现此就像意见的影类。且不给这份时被介和文明度说。中位被视频的不同伙伴。我到我们 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 卓创资讯玉米市场分析师甄亚男 【导语】春节假期前，玉米市场呈现相对强势，但受到假期影响价格提涨有限，节中市场基本停滞，仅 少数深加工企业维持收购但实收量有限，节后归来首日，玉米市场迎来开门红，华北、东北产区以及南 方销区价格均出现上涨。元宵节前市场逐步恢复，下游存在补库需求，预计价格偏强呈现，进入3月中 旬关注气温回升情况，整体价格或有下跌可能。 对比春节前后国内各区域玉米交易价格区间来看，整体以上涨为主，少数区域稳定。其中产区方面，东 北、华北等多数区域价格上涨，涨幅在10-20元/吨；销区偏高涨幅在20-30元/吨，因盘面强势，部分基 差结算货源价格涨幅稍高。全国市场均价来看，2月24日全国玉米均价是2262.50元/吨，较上一工作日 涨9.25元/吨，涨幅0.41%，月环比涨幅0.54%，同比去年涨幅6.84%。 | 市场名称 | 规格条件 | 2月24日 | 2月14日 | 日均值涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 三大雅 | 散粮、汽运 | 2110-2180 | 2100-2170 | 10 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the corn futures market first declined and then rebounded. Policy - driven supply supplements and alternative grain sources exerted downward pressure, while factors like over - half of the national corn sales progress (faster than last year), farmers' reluctance to sell, low inventory, and pre - holiday stocking demand provided bottom - up support. In the short term, the market may fluctuate with an upward bias. For trading strategies, due to intensified long - short competition in the market, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading, and there are no recommended arbitrage or option strategies [9][78][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review 3.1.1. Futures Prices - The domestic corn futures main contract C2603 first declined slightly at the beginning of the week and then rebounded continuously from Wednesday. As of last Friday's close, it was reported at 2,263 yuan/ton, up 0.58%. The CBOT corn futures main contract showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, closing at 445.25 cents per bushel last week, down 0.17% [6][15][20] 3.1.2. Spot Prices - The national average corn price last week was 2,310 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton. In the Northeast production area, prices were basically stable. In the North China production area, prices were stable with slight adjustments by some deep - processing enterprises. In the sales areas and ports, prices had narrow adjustments [8][24][25] 3.1.3. Basis - As of last Friday, the basis of Dalian Port corn against the main contract was 44 yuan/ton, narrowing by 60 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [29] 3.2. Review of Relevant Information Last Week - Vietnam will mandate the promotion of E10 in 2026, which may drive ethanol and corn imports. There were multiple corn bidding results from China National Grain Reserves Corporation, showing different purchase and sales rates. U.S. corn export data showed changes in shipment and net sales volume. Information on weather, crop yields, and export volumes from various countries such as India, Ukraine, Brazil, and Argentina was also provided [30][31][32] 3.3. Analysis of Corn Supply - Demand Pattern 3.3.1. Feed Enterprises' Inventory - As of January 8, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 30.10 days, an increase of 0.18 days from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 0.60% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.81% [45] 3.3.2. Deep - processing Enterprises' Inventory - As of January 7, the total corn inventory of national deep - processing enterprises was 3.54 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 40.47% [49] 3.3.3. Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Consumption - From January 1 to January 7, 2026, national major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed a total of 1.3817 million tons of corn, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 million tons. Different types of deep - processing enterprises had varying consumption changes [53][55] 3.3.4. Deep - processing Enterprises' Startup Situation - From January 1 to January 7, 2026, the corn processing volume, starch output, and startup rate of corn starch enterprises all decreased week on week. The startup rate was 59.37%, a 0.49% week - on - week decrease [59] 3.3.5. Deep - processing Enterprises' Profit Situation - Recently, by - product prices have been low. Corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang and Jilin are in deep losses. Profits in different regions have different changes compared with the previous week [65] 3.3.6. Import and Export Situation - In November 2025, China imported 560,000 tons of corn, a month - on - month increase of 200,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 260,000 tons. From January to November 2025, China imported 1.85 million tons of corn, a year - on - year decrease of 11.47 million tons [68] 3.4. Related Products Situation 3.4.1. Corn Starch - Last week, the national average corn starch price was 2,692 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton from the previous week. Prices in different regions had different changes [72] 3.4.2. Live Pigs - Last week, the national average live - pig slaughter price was 12.41 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.15 yuan/kg from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 1.22% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.58% [77]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Corn futures prices rose first and then fell this week, with short - term large fluctuations. It is advisable to wait and see. Corn starch futures prices also rose first and then fell, and are expected to maintain short - term fluctuations [8][10] Summaries by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary Corn - **Market Review**: The main 2603 contract of corn futures closed at 2,226 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from last week [8] - **Market Outlook**: U.S. corn is in the export peak season with high short - term supply pressure. However, good export conditions and a downward adjustment of the ending inventory forecast support its price. In China, the grain sales progress in the Northeast is fast, farmers are reluctant to sell, and most grain sources are in the hands of grain depots and traders. Feed enterprises have certain inventories, while deep - processing enterprises have relatively low inventories and weak willingness to purchase at higher prices. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the overall grain sales progress is about 40%, and processing enterprises are not willing to replenish stocks at high prices [8] Corn Starch - **Market Review**: The main 2603 contract of Dalian corn starch futures fluctuated up and down, closing at 2,515 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from last week [10] - **Market Outlook**: With the increase in the supply of new - season corn, the supply - side pressure of corn starch remains. As of December 24, the national corn starch inventory increased. However, holiday stocking and the price increase of cassava starch may boost demand [10] 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position Changes - The 3 - month contract of corn futures rose first and then fell, with a total position of 1,009,261 lots, an increase of 5,461 lots from last week. The 3 - month contract of corn starch futures also rose first and then fell, with a total position of 195,489 lots, an increase of 3,391 lots from last week [16] Top 20 Net Position Changes - The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 168,889 this week, with an increase in net short positions compared to last week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 31,610, with a decrease in net short positions compared to last week [23] Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 39,395 lots, and those of corn starch were 12,355 lots [29] Spot Price and Basis - As of December 30, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,351.76 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 3 - month contract and the spot average price was + 125 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,700 yuan/ton and 2,800 yuan/ton in Shandong, and the basis between the 3 - month contract and the Jilin Changchun spot price was 185 yuan/ton [34][39] Futures Inter - monthly Spread - The 3 - 5 spread of corn was - 29 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 3 - 5 spread of starch was - 50 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [45] Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the 3 - month contracts of starch and corn was 289 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 410 yuan/ton, the same as last week [53] Substitute Spread - As of December 30, 2025, the spot price of wheat was 2,516.17 yuan/ton, and the spot price of corn was 2,351.76 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 164.41 yuan/ton. In the 51st week of 2025, the average spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 712 yuan/ton, narrowing by 13 yuan/ton compared to last week [59] 3. Industry Chain Situation Corn Supply - As of December 19, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 224,000 tons, an increase of 33,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 278,000 tons, an increase of 16,000 tons from last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.803 million tons, an increase of 11,000 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 827,000 tons, an increase of 143,000 tons week - on - week [49] - As of December 25, the overall domestic corn sales progress was 45%, an increase of 3 percentage points from the previous week and 4 percentage points from the same period last year. The sales progress in the Northeast was 44%, an increase of 3 percentage points from the previous week and 8 percentage points from the same period last year [61] - In November 2025, China's ordinary corn imports were 560,000 tons, the highest this year, an increase of 260,000 tons (86.67%) compared to the same period last year and 200,000 tons compared to last month [65] - As of December 25, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 29.88 days, a decrease of 0.10 days from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.68% [69] Demand - At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, an increase of 9.86 million heads (2.3%) year - on - year and 12.33 million heads (2.9%) quarter - on - quarter. As of the end of October, the inventory of breeding sows was 30.9 million heads, a decrease of 450,000 heads (1.12%) month - on - month [73] - As of December 26, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was - 130.11 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 162.8 yuan/head [77] - As of December 30, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 50 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit was - 399 yuan/ton in Henan, - 767 yuan/ton in Jilin, and - 265 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang [82] Corn Starch Supply - As of December 24, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 3.378 million tons, an increase of 4.26% [86] - From December 25 - 31, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 631,100 tons, a decrease of 4,200 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 327,500 tons, a decrease of 3,300 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 59.86%, a decrease of 0.6% from last week. As of December 31, the national corn starch inventory was 1.123 million tons, an increase of 21,000 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 1.91%, a month - on - month increase of 3.09%, and a year - on - year increase of 24.64% [90] 4. Option Market Analysis - As of December 31, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2603 contract of corn was 11.32%, a recovery of 1.04% from last week's 10.28%. The implied volatility this week recovered and was at a medium level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [93]

Core Viewpoint - The wheat market is becoming increasingly tense as winter sowing concludes, with the potential for state reserve wheat auctions to impact prices significantly [3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The willingness to sell wheat is increasing among grain holders, leading to a rise in the quantity of wheat available for trade [4][5] - As selling intentions rise, the supply of wheat in the market is replenished, which naturally slows down the price increase [6] - The price gap between wheat and corn remains significant, limiting wheat's ability to replace corn in feed [7] Group 2: Demand Factors - The primary demand for wheat continues to come from flour enterprises, which are under pressure and thus less inclined to raise purchase prices [8][9] - Low inventory levels for both flour enterprises and corn processing companies create a potential for replenishment needs if demand increases or logistics are disrupted [11] Group 3: Supply Uncertainty - Although winter sowing has ended, the production conditions for new wheat remain uncertain due to factors such as late sowing and extreme weather events [12] - The key variable affecting wheat prices is not the state reserve auctions but rather the dynamics of the corn market [12] Group 4: Corn Market Influence - The corn market is currently experiencing a supply-demand mismatch, particularly in regions like North China and Huanghuai, which affects overall market dynamics [14] - As corn is in the selling phase and the selling progress is only about 30%, the intense competition between supply and demand makes significant price movements unlikely in the short term [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn futures fluctuated and rose this week. The international corn market price is under pressure, but the domestic corn market is supported by factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, tight transportation capacity, increased processing consumption, and strong procurement by enterprises. The corn futures price is generally strong and volatile, and investors should be cautious about chasing up [6]. - Corn starch futures also oscillated and closed higher. Although the supply - side pressure increases due to sufficient raw material supply and rising industry operating rates, the downstream demand is good, inventory has decreased, and the starch futures price has risen in sync with the corn market, with caution advised for chasing up [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights 3.1.1. Corn - **Market Review**: The main 2601 contract of corn futures closed at 2,244 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton from last week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: International supply pressure is high, while in the domestic market, factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, tight transportation, and increased consumption support the price. The futures price is strong and volatile, and cautious chasing is recommended [6]. 3.1.2. Corn Starch - **Market Review**: The main 2601 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed at 2,566 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton from last week [8]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply - side pressure increases, but downstream demand is good, inventory has decreased, and the futures price has risen in sync with the corn market, with caution advised for chasing up [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Price Trends and Position Changes - Corn futures' January contract oscillated and closed higher, with a total position of 959,620 hands, an increase of 10,180 hands from last week. Corn starch futures' January contract also oscillated and closed higher, with a total position of 238,140 hands, an increase of 1,212 hands from last week [14]. 3.2.2. Net Positions of the Top Twenty - The net position of the top twenty in corn futures this week was - 202,716, compared with - 108,473 last week, indicating an increase in net short positions. The net position of the top twenty in starch futures was - 33,782, compared with - 43,094 last week, showing a slight decrease in net short positions [20]. 3.2.3. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 60,215, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 0 [24]. 3.2.4. Spot Prices and Basis Trends - As of November 27, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,325.29 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active January contract of corn and the spot average price was + 81 yuan/ton [32]. - The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,650 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,800 yuan/ton, with a slight increase this week. The basis between the January contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 84 yuan/ton [36]. 3.2.5. Inter - month Spread Changes - The 1 - 3 spread of corn was + 5 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 1 - 3 spread of starch was - 9 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [42]. 3.2.6. Futures Spread Changes - The spread between the January contracts of starch and corn was 322 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared with last week [51]. 3.2.7. Substitute Spread Changes - As of November 27, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,506.44 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,325.29 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 181.15 yuan/ton. In the 48th week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 601 yuan/ton, an increase of 147 yuan/ton compared with last week [56]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1. Corn - **Supply Side**: - As of November 21, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 28.4 tons, an increase of 1.10 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 31.5 tons, a decrease of 4.00 tons from last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 115.6 tons, a decrease of 1.4 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume from the four northern ports was 74.4 tons, an increase of 34.40 tons week - on - week [46]. - As of November 27, the overall progress of domestic corn sales was 30%, a 3% increase from November 20, and a 3% increase compared with the same period last year [58]. - In October 2025, China's corn import volume was 35.90 tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.06% and a month - on - month increase of 30.25 tons [62]. - As of November 27, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 27.83 days, an increase of 1.60 days from last week, a week - on - week increase of 6.10%, but a year - on - year decrease of 4.72% [66]. - **Demand Side**: - At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.80 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.3% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 2.9%. The inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7% and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.2% [70]. - As of November 21, 2025, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 135.9 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets was - 234.63 yuan/head [74]. - As of November 27, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 3 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 500 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 579 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 252 yuan/ton [79]. 3.3.2. Corn Starch - **Supply Side**: - As of November 26, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 269.8 tons, a decrease of 1.06% [84]. - From November 20 to November 26, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 62.46 tons, an increase of 1.22 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 32.34 tons, an increase of 0.84 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 61.38%, an increase of 1.59% from last week. As of November 26, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 106.9 tons, a decrease of 4.00 tons from last week, a weekly decrease of 3.61%, a monthly decrease of 5.23%, and a year - on - year increase of 19.04% [88]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis - As of November 28, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2601 contract of corn was 11.05%, a rebound of 2.63% from 8.42% last week. The implied volatility rebounded significantly this week and was at a relatively high level compared with the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [91].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn futures are in a long - term bearish trend. The supply pressure of US corn is increasing with the harvest, and domestic new - season corn is in the peak listing period with weak demand, though the start of purchases by direct - subordinate warehouses and the expansion of rotation procurement by the China National Grain Reserves Corporation support market sentiment to some extent [8]. - Corn starch futures are also bearish. With the increase in new - season corn supply, the cost support for corn starch weakens. After the holiday, the industry's开机 rate has increased significantly, inventory has slightly increased, and the market demand is squeezed by substitutes [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary Corn - **Market Review**: This week, corn futures adjusted at a low level. The closing price of the main 2601 contract was 2117 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from before the holiday [8]. - **Market Outlook**: Affected by the US government shutdown, the USDA did not release the crop progress report. Analysts expect about 29% of US corn to be harvested. As the US corn harvest progresses, supply pressure will increase, and prices will continue to be under pressure. In China, new grains in the Northeast are in the peak listing period, with high selling enthusiasm among farmers, weak demand in the downstream market, and continuous price cuts by deep - processing enterprises. In the North China and Huang - Huai regions, due to continuous rainy weather, new corn is difficult to preserve, and the price of wet grain has been falling. However, the start of purchases by direct - subordinate warehouses and the expansion of rotation procurement by the China National Grain Reserves Corporation support market sentiment. The corn futures price is in a bearish trend [8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Maintain a long - term bearish view [8]. Corn Starch - **Market Review**: Dalian corn starch futures fluctuated and closed down. The closing price of the main 2601 contract was 2384 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton from before the holiday [12]. - **Market Outlook**: As the supply of new - season corn increases, the cost support for corn starch weakens. After the holiday, the industry's开机 rate has increased significantly, and inventory has slightly increased. As of October 15, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.199 million tons, up 0.80 tons from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.67%, a monthly increase of 5.27%, and a year - on - year increase of 46.94%. The high inventory and the substitution advantage of cassava starch and wheat starch continue to squeeze the market demand for corn starch. The starch futures price continues to fall [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position Change - Corn futures' January contract fluctuated at a low level, with a total position of 769,696 lots, an increase of 212,858 lots from last week. Corn starch futures' January contract fluctuated and closed down, with a total position of 179,051 lots, an increase of 76,641 lots from last week [16]. Top Twenty Net Position Change - This week, the top twenty net position of corn futures was - 38,512, compared with - 30,774 last week, with a slight increase in net short positions. The top twenty net position of starch futures was - 49,015, compared with - 37,899 last week, with a slight increase in net short positions [22]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 36,709 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 12,806 lots [28]. Spot Price and Basis Trend - As of October 16, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,271.57 yuan/ton, and the basis between the January active contract of corn futures and the average spot price was + 154 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,600 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,750 yuan/ton, with a weak adjustment this week. The basis between the January contract of corn starch futures and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 216 yuan/ton [33][38]. Futures Inter - monthly Spread Change - The 11 - 1 spread of corn was - 9 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 11 - 1 spread of starch was - 10 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [44]. Futures Spread Change between Corn and Starch - The spread between the January contracts of starch and corn was 267 yuan/ton. As of this Thursday, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 490 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton from last week [53]. Substitute Spread Change - As of October 16, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,451.94 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,271.57 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 180.37 yuan/ton. In the 42nd week of 2025, the average spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 299 yuan/ton, widening 31 yuan/ton from last week [58]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation Corn Supply Side - **Port Inventory**: As of October 10, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 193,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 194,000 tons, an increase of 77,000 tons from last week. The total corn inventory of the four northern ports was 852,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 138,000 tons; the shipping volume of the four northern ports was 581,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 110,000 tons [48]. - **Monthly Import Volume**: In August 2025, the total import volume of ordinary corn was 40,000 tons, a decrease of 390,000 tons or 90.70% compared with the same period last year, and a decrease of 20,000 tons compared with the same period last month [66]. - **Feed Enterprise Inventory**: As of October 16, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 24.44 days, a decrease of 0.05 days from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.20%, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.94% [70]. Demand Side - **Livestock Inventory**: As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of August, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 million heads, a decrease of 40,000 heads from the previous month, accounting for 103.5% of the normal reserve of 39 million heads [74]. - **Breeding Profit**: As of October 10, 2025, the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was - 152.15 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 301.04 yuan/head [78]. - **Processing Enterprise Profit**: As of October 16, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was 53 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit was 263 yuan/ton in Henan, - 200 yuan/ton in Jilin, and 54 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang [83]. Corn Starch Supply Side - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of October 15, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 2.462 million tons, an increase of 5.48% [87]. - **Starch Enterprise开机Rate and Inventory**: From October 9 to 15, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 581,700 tons, an increase of 37,100 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 293,500 tons, an increase of 25,500 tons from last week; the weekly开机rate was 56.74%, an increase of 4.93% from last week. As of October 15, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.199 million tons, up 0.80 tons from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.67%, a monthly increase of 5.27%, and a year - on - year increase of 46.94% [91]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - As of October 17, the main 2601 contract of corn fluctuated at a low level, and the corresponding option implied volatility was 10.87%, a recovery of 1.15% from 9.72% last week. This week, the implied volatility fluctuated and recovered, at a slightly high level compared with the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [94].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn report has lowered the yield per unit, but the production remains at a high level. The price of US corn has declined and is expected to trade in a narrow range. China has imposed a 15% tariff on US corn, with a total of 26% tariff within the quota, and a 22% tariff on US sorghum. The import profit of foreign corn is relatively high, with the December import price from Brazil at 2,135 yuan. The spot price of corn in the Northeast and North China is falling, and the price difference between the two regions is widening. The domestic breeding demand is still weak, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is low. The corn spot price is expected to be relatively stable in the short term. With the large - scale listing of new - season corn at the end of September, the spot price of corn is likely to continue to fall [5][6]. - The number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants in Shandong has increased, and the spot price of corn in Shandong is weak. The spot price of starch in Shandong and the Northeast is also weak. This week, the inventory of corn starch has decreased. The current starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The price of by - products is still strong. In the medium to long term, due to weak demand, starch enterprises will be in a long - term loss state. The 01 starch contract is expected to trade in a narrow range at the bottom in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data 3.1.1 Futures Disk - Corn futures contracts C2601, C2605, C2509 all declined, with C2601 closing at 2,135 yuan, down 4 yuan (- 0.19%); C2605 at 2,203 yuan, down 2 yuan (- 0.09%); C2509 at 2,227 yuan, down 3 yuan (- 0.13%). The trading volume of C2601 decreased by 4.39%, C2605 increased by 39.44%, and C2509 decreased by 19.42%. The open interest of C2601 increased by 1.28%, C2605 by 1.08%, and C2509 by 3.76% [3]. - Corn starch futures contracts CS2601, CS2605, CS2509 also declined. CS2601 closed at 2,458 yuan, down 4 yuan (- 0.16%); CS2605 at 2,546 yuan, down 2 yuan (- 0.08%); CS2509 at 2,585 yuan, down 2 yuan (- 0.08%). The trading volume of CS2601 increased by 12.98%, CS2605 by 58.26%, and CS2509 by 9.09%. The open interest of CS2601 increased by 5.14%, CS2605 by 2.50%, and CS2509 remained unchanged [3]. 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - For corn, the spot prices in regions such as Qinggang, Songyuan Jiajie, etc. showed different degrees of decline. The basis varied from - 162 yuan in Qinggang to 223 yuan in Zhucheng Xingmao [3]. - For starch, the spot prices of various manufacturers remained stable, and the basis ranged from 154 yuan (Longfeng, COFCO) to 444 yuan (Yufeng) [3]. 3.1.3 Spreads - In corn inter - period spreads, C01 - C05 was - 68 yuan, down 2 yuan; C05 - C09 was - 24 yuan, up 1 yuan; C09 - C01 was 92 yuan, up 1 yuan. In starch inter - period spreads, CS01 - CS05 was - 88 yuan, down 2 yuan; CS05 - CS09 was - 39 yuan, unchanged; CS09 - CS01 was 127 yuan, up 2 yuan. In cross - variety spreads, CS09 - C09 was 358 yuan, up 1 yuan; CS01 - C01 was 323 yuan, unchanged; CS05 - C05 was 343 yuan, unchanged [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Corn - The US corn market has a high production level, and the price is expected to trade in a narrow range. China's tariff policies on US corn and sorghum have been adjusted. The import profit of foreign corn is high. The spot price of corn in the North is stable, while that in the Northeast and North China is falling. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn is widening, and the price difference between wheat and corn is also widening. The domestic breeding demand is weak, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is low. With the large - scale listing of new - season corn at the end of September, the spot price of corn is expected to continue to fall [5][6]. 3.2.2 Starch - The spot price of corn in Shandong is weak, and the spot price of starch in Shandong and the Northeast is also weak. This week, the inventory of corn starch has decreased. The current starch price depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The price of by - products is strong. In the medium to long term, due to weak demand, starch enterprises will be in a long - term loss state. The 01 starch contract is expected to trade in a narrow range at the bottom in the short term [7]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US corn has support at 400 cents per bushel. Consider a light - position long on the 01 contract with a stop - loss set [9]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [10]. 3.4 Corn Options - Option strategy: Adopt a short - term strategy of accumulating puts and calls with rolling operations [11]. 3.5 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include charts showing the spot price of corn in various regions, the basis of the corn 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread of corn, the 1 - 5 spread of corn starch, the basis of the corn starch 01 contract, and the spread of the corn starch 01 contract, which help to visually analyze the price trends and relationships of corn and corn starch [14][15][18][20].

Market Review - The main corn futures contract rose by 0.65% to 2177 CNY/ton in the last trading session [1] Fundamental Summary - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that corn planting in Argentina's main agricultural areas is advancing rapidly before the arrival of storms this weekend. The storms are expected to pause local crop planting. The exchange forecasts that the corn planting area for the 2025/26 season will be 7.8 million hectares (19.3 million acres), marking the second-highest planting area in the country's history [2] - The USDA reported that private exporters sold 110,000 tons of corn to Mexico for delivery in the 2025/2026 season [2] - According to a report from the grain trade association Coceral, the EU and UK corn production for 2025 is expected to be 56.7 million tons, down from the June estimate of 60.6 million tons [2] Institutional Views - Nanhua Futures noted that new corn is gradually being listed in regions such as Liaoning and eastern Heilongjiang. In North China, new corn is starting to be listed in Henan and Shandong, with a large volume expected to begin by the end of September. The corn prices in the sales area are temporarily stable, driven by essential stock replenishment. Nanhua's view is that the market will continue to show weakness as new grain is gradually listed [3] - Everbright Futures indicated that technically, the November corn contract has been in a downward trend for nearly a week since encountering resistance in early September. The market is currently focused on whether the January contract can break through the price lows formed in mid-August. In the short term, the November contract's short positions are reducing, and caution is advised regarding potential rebounds after sharp price declines. The mid-term strategy continues to favor short positions [3]

Market Overview - Domestic corn futures fell by 1.36% to 2326 CNY/ton on July 7 [1] - Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures closed down 3.7% on the same day, influenced by favorable weather conditions in U.S. corn-producing regions [1] Fundamental Summary - As of July 5, Brazil's first corn harvest rate reached 97.2%, up from 95.4% the previous week and slightly above last year's 96.8% [2] - The second corn harvest rate in Brazil was 27.7%, compared to 17% the previous week and significantly lower than last year's 61.1% [2] - The U.S. corn condition report indicated a good/excellent rate of 74% as of July 6, exceeding market expectations of 73% and up from 68% last year [2] - U.S. corn export inspection volume for the week ending July 3 was 1,491,062 tons, an increase from the revised figure of 1,380,943 tons the previous week [2] - Cumulative U.S. corn export inspections for the current marketing year reached 56,446,111 tons, compared to 43,523,109 tons during the same period last year [2] Institutional Perspectives - Everbright Futures noted a weakening market sentiment following the second corn import auction, with a basic premium of 20-40 CNY/ton [3] - Traders in producing areas are bullish in the long term but are increasingly willing to sell in the short term, leading to limited high-price transactions in demand areas [3] - The State Grain Reserve will continue corn auctions on July 8, with the September contract focusing on the support level of 2330 CNY [3] - Guotou Futures reported high transaction rates and significant premiums from recent State Grain Reserve auctions, affecting market expectations and increasing supply from local traders [3] - Inventory levels at southern and northern ports have slightly increased, indicating a softening demand side [3]