Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2640 - 2700. The market is influenced by factors such as soybean meal trends, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. In the short - term, it will maintain range - bound oscillations [9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Hints - Not provided in the content 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season. The listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, and the demand side maintains a good outlook. - The slightly reduced annual production of Canadian rapeseed supports the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The reduced production of Ukrainian rapeseed and the increased production of Russian rapeseed offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Bullish - China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes. - The inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills is not significant [12]. Bearish - Domestic rapeseed was listed in June. - The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, and the demand for rapeseed meal is in the seasonal off - peak [13]. Current Main Logic - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Price and Volume Data**: From July 7th to July 16th, the average trading price of soybean meal fluctuated around 2880 - 2900 yuan/ton, and the trading volume ranged from 6.51 - 18.51 million tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal was around 2500 - 2560 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was relatively small, mostly below 0.2 million tons. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 336 - 384 yuan/ton [14]. - **Rapeseed Meal Futures and Spot Price**: From July 8th to July 16th, the price of rapeseed meal futures (main contract 2509) increased from 2576 to 2653 yuan/ton, and the price of the far - month contract 2601 fluctuated around 2300 - 2320 yuan/ton. The spot price in Fujian increased from 2500 to 2560 yuan/ton [16]. - **Rapeseed Meal Warehouse Receipts**: From July 4th to July 16th, the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 16232 to 8911, showing a continuous downward trend [17]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [25][26] 5. Position Data - Not provided in the content 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal has rebounded in an oscillatory manner, affected by soybean meal trends and technical oscillations. The low - level operation of oil mills and low inventory support the market. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal spot has entered the peak season. Although the arrival of imported rapeseed has increased, the short - term inventory pressure of oil mills is not significant, and the market will maintain range - bound oscillations in the short term. The additional tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive factor, but the impact may be limited as no additional tariff is imposed on rapeseed imports [9]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2560 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 93, indicating a discount to the futures price, which is a bearish factor [9]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 0.46 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58.18% compared to last week's 1.1 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 84.67% compared to 3 million tons in the same period last year, which is a bullish factor [9]. - **Market Trends**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards, which is a bullish factor [9]. - **Main Position**: The main long positions have decreased, and funds have flowed out, which is a bullish factor [9]. - **Expectations**: In the short term, rapeseed meal prices have risen and then fallen due to the low - level inventory of imported rapeseed and the additional tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. Coupled with the influence of soybean meal, the price will return to range - bound oscillations in the short term [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2620 - 2680. The market is influenced by factors such as good demand expectations, low inventory, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. In the short - term, it is expected to be volatile with a slight upward bias, but will return to range - bound trading due to factors like the inventory of imported rapeseed and the influence of soybean meal [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate between 2620 and 2680. The fundamental situation shows that the demand is expected to be good, and the low inventory of rapeseed meal in oil mills supports the market. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal in the spot market has entered the peak season. Although the import volume of rapeseed has increased, the inventory of oil mills is not under pressure in the short term. The price is expected to be volatile with a slight upward bias in the short term. However, the impact of the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is limited as there is no tariff on rapeseed imports [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, and the supply in the spot market is tight while demand is rising. The annual output of Canadian rapeseed has decreased slightly, which supports the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. The global rapeseed output has decreased slightly this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU production and lower - than - expected output in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the geopolitical conflict may still rise, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. Bearish factors: The increase in the arrival volume of imported rapeseed after March; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season of rapeseed meal demand. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: The spot price is 2560, and the basis is - 134, indicating a discount to the futures, which is bearish. - **Inventory**: The rapeseed meal inventory is 19,000 tons, a 5% week - on - week decrease from last week's 20,000 tons and a 32.14% year - on - year decrease from last year's 28,000 tons, which is bullish. - **Market Trend**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards, which is bullish [9]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions have decreased, but the capital has flowed in, which is bullish [9]. 4. Other Data - **Trading Data**: From June 3 to June 12, the trading volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed fluctuations. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuated during this period [13]. - **Price Data**: The futures and spot prices of rapeseed meal from June 4 to June 12 showed an upward trend overall. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian increased from 2460 to 2560 during this period [14]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: From May 30 to June 12, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased continuously [15]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 to 2023 show the changes in various indicators such as inventory, output, and consumption over the years [23][24]. - **Import Data**: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in June was lower than expected, and the import cost showed a strong and volatile trend. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills stopped falling and rebounded, the rapeseed meal inventory decreased slightly, and the rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills increased slightly [25][28][30]. - **Aquaculture Production and Price**: The production of Chinese aquatic products, fish, shellfish, and shrimp - crabs is mentioned, and the price of aquatic fish has rebounded slightly while the price of shrimp - shellfish has remained stable [32][34][38].

Report Overview - The report focuses on rapeseed meal (RSM), presenting an analysis of its market conditions, including price trends, supply and demand, and relevant news [9][11]. 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate between 2560 and 2620. The market is currently in a short - term bullish and volatile state, influenced by factors such as low inventory levels, increased demand, and tariff policies. However, the impact of tariff policies may be limited, and the market may return to range - bound trading due to factors like the import of rapeseed and the influence of soybean meal [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to trade in the range of 2560 - 2620 [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with supply in the spot market being tight and demand rising. - Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, which supports the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil cakes, and an anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is ongoing. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's rapeseed production offset each other, but geopolitical conflicts may still support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil cakes; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal. - Bearish factors: An increase in the arrival of imported rapeseed after March; uncertainty in China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season for rapeseed meal demand [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: The spot price is 2520, with a basis of - 88, indicating a discount to the futures price. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 2000 tons, down 14.89% week - on - week from 2350 tons last week and 21.67% year - on - year compared to 3000 tons in the same period last year. - **Market Trend**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and trending upwards [9]. 3.5 Position Data - The number of long positions held by the main players has increased, but there is an outflow of funds [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal View and Strategy - The short - term trend of rapeseed meal is influenced by low imported rapeseed inventory and China's additional tariffs on Canadian oil cakes, leading to a rise followed by a fall. Coupled with the influence of soybean meal, the price is expected to return to range - bound trading [9]. 3.7 Other Data - **Trading Volume and Price Difference**: The report provides trading volume and average price data for soybean meal and rapeseed meal from May 27 to June 6, as well as the price difference between them. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal continues to narrow, and the price difference of the 2509 contract remains volatile [13][20]. - **Rapeseed Meal Price**: It shows the futures and spot prices of rapeseed meal from May 27 to June 6, including the main 2509 contract, the far - month 2601 contract, and the spot price in Fujian [14]. - **Rapeseed Meal Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts has been decreasing from May 26 to June 6 [15]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: It presents the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 to 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [23][24]. - **Imported Rapeseed**: The arrival of imported rapeseed in June is lower than expected, and the import cost is in a strong and volatile state [25]. - **Oil Mill Data**: The rapeseed inventory of oil mills has stopped falling and started to rise, the rapeseed meal inventory has slightly decreased, and the rapeseed crushing volume has slightly increased [28][30]. - **Aquatic Product Data**: The price of aquatic fish has slightly increased, while the price of shrimp and shellfish has remained stable [38].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-05-19 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2480至2540区间震荡 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回升，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期逐步回升，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期回归区间震荡。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜 粕，但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2470，基差-43，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存3.6万吨，上周1.45万吨，周环比增加148.28%，去年同期3万吨，同比增 加20%。偏空 ...