Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in cryptocurrency prices, particularly Ethereum, is attributed to the easing of trade tensions and significant technical upgrades within the Ethereum network [1][4]. Group 1: Ethereum's Performance - Ethereum experienced a dramatic price increase, rising from $1,811 to $2,597.68 within three days, marking a peak increase of 43% [2]. - As of the latest report, Ethereum's price fluctuated around $2,540, with a 7-day cumulative increase of 39.62%, significantly outperforming Bitcoin, which saw an 8.52% increase [2]. - Other cryptocurrencies also showed positive trends, with Solana up over 21%, BNB up over 10%, Cardano up over 15%, and Dogecoin up over 37% in the same period [2]. Group 2: Technical Upgrades - The recent price rally for Ethereum is linked to the successful implementation of the Pectra upgrade on May 7, which introduced key technical improvements such as higher staking limits and account abstraction (EIP-7702 standard) [2]. - These upgrades enhance the usability and flexibility of the Ethereum network and are expected to lower network fees, instilling renewed confidence among investors [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - A "short squeeze" phenomenon in the Ethereum futures market contributed to the price increase, with a significant liquidation of short positions amounting to $438 million, compared to $211 million in long liquidations [3]. - The total value of Ethereum's open contracts surged from $21.28 billion on May 8 to $26.77 billion by May 10, indicating increased market participation and bullish sentiment among traders [3]. Group 4: Macro Factors - The easing of global trade tensions, highlighted by a new trade agreement between the U.S. and the U.K. and ongoing high-level talks between China and the U.S., has positively influenced market risk appetite [4]. - Bitcoin's price crossing the $100,000 mark for the first time since February reflects a broader recovery in investor demand for risk assets, supported by favorable market conditions [4][5]. Group 5: Strategic Moves in the Industry - Coinbase's acquisition of Deribit for $2.9 billion marks a significant strategic move into the lucrative cryptocurrency derivatives market, with the deal structured as $700 million in cash and the remainder in stock [6]. - This acquisition is noted as the largest in cryptocurrency history and is expected to accelerate Coinbase's global derivatives strategy [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in the offshore RMB exchange rate, driven by positive sentiment regarding tariff negotiations between China and the U.S. [1][7] - On May 2, the offshore RMB rose over 350 points, surpassing the 7.25 mark, currently reported at 7.2414 [3][4]. - The Hang Seng Index increased by nearly 2%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose over 3% [4]. Group 2 - The FTSE China A50 futures index also saw an increase of over 1% [5]. - China's assessment of trade negotiations with the U.S. has boosted optimism about easing tariff tensions, with officials from both sides expressing a willingness to engage in talks [7]. - Global investor sentiment improved, with European stock markets generally rising about 1%, and U.S. stock index futures recovering all previous losses to turn positive [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices driven by the Trump trade war may be overextended, with multiple indicators signaling an increased risk of price correction [1][4]. Group 1: Market Indicators - Gold prices have retraced over 6% after reaching a record high of $3,500, partly due to signs of easing trade tensions [1]. - Hedge funds have significantly reduced their net long positions in gold futures and options to the lowest level in over a year [4]. - The SPDR Gold Shares ETF saw a record 1.3 million options contracts traded last week, with the cost of hedging against a decline in the ETF at its lowest since August [4]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Barclays strategist Stefano Pascale noted that the surge in bullish gold options following Trump's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" has led to an inverted skew in gold options, alongside a sharp reduction in hedge fund long positions and recent price corrections [4][5]. - Technical indicators suggest that gold's price movement has decoupled from fundamental drivers like the dollar and real interest rates, indicating an overbought condition [5]. Group 3: Historical Patterns and Signals - The technical analysis from Guangfa Strategy indicates that gold has reached a weekly overbought zone, suggesting a need for a monthly correction due to overextension of short-term drivers [6]. - Nomura Securities highlighted that gold prices are currently more than 25% above the 200-day moving average, a level historically associated with significant corrections within the following two months [6]. - Additional warning signals include the "Federal Reserve Composite Expected Capital Expenditures Index" recently dropping below -4, which historically correlates with poor gold performance in the subsequent two months [7]. - Historical anomalies in gold market fund flows have occurred, with previous instances indicating imminent corrections, typically within the next two months [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given documents. Core Viewpoints - For glass and soda ash, the short - term macro利好 boosts the market, but the soda ash industry still faces severe inventory pressure. It's advisable to wait for the rebound and then take a bearish stance, and stay on the sidelines for now [4]. - For industrial silicon, the supply exceeds demand, and the price is under pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8500 - 10500 yuan/ton. The improvement of the macro - atmosphere is conducive to the upward shift of the price center [6]. - For natural rubber, new rubber supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The rubber price is expected to face significant pressure, with an operating range of 14000 - 15000 [7]. - For polysilicon, the macro - atmosphere is warming up, and the price center is expected to move up. Attention should be paid to the changes in production and demand, as well as the willingness to register warehouse receipts [10]. Summary by Category Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads** - Glass: North China, East China, Central China, and South China quotes remained unchanged. Glass 2505 rose 32 yuan/ton (2.98%), and glass 2509 rose 30 yuan/ton (2.67%). The 05 basis decreased by 32 yuan/ton (-17.20%) [1]. - Soda ash: North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest quotes remained unchanged. Soda ash 2505 rose 48 yuan/ton (3.77%), and soda ash 2509 rose 58 yuan/ton (4.55%) [1]. - **Output** - Soda ash: The operating rate remained at 89.50%, and the weekly output decreased slightly by 0.07% to 75.51 million tons [2]. - Float glass: The daily melting volume decreased by 0.44% to 15.78 million tons, while the photovoltaic daily melting volume increased by 2.55% to 96640 tons [2]. - **Inventory** - Glass: The factory inventory increased by 0.61% to 6547.33 ten - thousand heavy boxes [3]. - Soda ash: The factory inventory decreased by 1.19% to 169.10 million tons, and the delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 11.66% to 33.85 million tons. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days increased by 2.14% to 18.1 days [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Prices and Spreads** - East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon decreased by 100 yuan/ton (-1.03%) to 9650 yuan/ton [6]. - The monthly spreads between different contracts showed various changes, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread decreased by 75.00% [6]. - **Output and Inventory** - In March, Yunnan's industrial silicon output decreased by 14.58% to 1.23 million tons, while Xinjiang's output increased by 26.57% to 21.08 million tons [6]. - Xinjiang's factory warehouse inventory (weekly) decreased by 7.72% to 20.92 million tons, and the social inventory (weekly) decreased by 0.16% to 61.10 million tons [6]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads** - Yunnan state - owned brand - new rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai rose by 100 yuan/ton (0.70%) to 14400 yuan/ton. The full - milk basis (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 15.19% [7]. - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 30 yuan/ton (3.85%), and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 20 yuan/ton (2.25%) [7]. - **Output and Inventory** - In February, Thailand's output decreased by 37.99% to 346.40 thousand tons, and Indonesia's output decreased by 0.50% to 197.60 thousand tons [7]. - The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.24% to 619180 tons, and the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE decreased by 1.04% to 76911 tons [7]. Polysilicon - **Prices and Spreads** - N - type re - feedstock, P - type cauliflower - like feedstock, and granular silicon average prices remained unchanged. PS2506 rose 240 yuan/ton (0.61%) [10]. - The monthly spreads between different contracts showed various changes, such as the PS2506 - PS2507 spread increased by 13.67% [10]. - **Output and Inventory** - In March, polysilicon output increased by 6.66% to 9.61 million tons, and the weekly output increased slightly to 2.23 million tons [10]. - Polysilicon inventory increased by 0.7 million tons to 25.1 million tons, while silicon wafer inventory decreased by 0.93GW to 18.22GW [10].