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《特殊商品》日报-20250425
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-25 01:17
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given documents. Core Viewpoints - For glass and soda ash, the short - term macro利好 boosts the market, but the soda ash industry still faces severe inventory pressure. It's advisable to wait for the rebound and then take a bearish stance, and stay on the sidelines for now [4]. - For industrial silicon, the supply exceeds demand, and the price is under pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8500 - 10500 yuan/ton. The improvement of the macro - atmosphere is conducive to the upward shift of the price center [6]. - For natural rubber, new rubber supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The rubber price is expected to face significant pressure, with an operating range of 14000 - 15000 [7]. - For polysilicon, the macro - atmosphere is warming up, and the price center is expected to move up. Attention should be paid to the changes in production and demand, as well as the willingness to register warehouse receipts [10]. Summary by Category Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads** - Glass: North China, East China, Central China, and South China quotes remained unchanged. Glass 2505 rose 32 yuan/ton (2.98%), and glass 2509 rose 30 yuan/ton (2.67%). The 05 basis decreased by 32 yuan/ton (-17.20%) [1]. - Soda ash: North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest quotes remained unchanged. Soda ash 2505 rose 48 yuan/ton (3.77%), and soda ash 2509 rose 58 yuan/ton (4.55%) [1]. - **Output** - Soda ash: The operating rate remained at 89.50%, and the weekly output decreased slightly by 0.07% to 75.51 million tons [2]. - Float glass: The daily melting volume decreased by 0.44% to 15.78 million tons, while the photovoltaic daily melting volume increased by 2.55% to 96640 tons [2]. - **Inventory** - Glass: The factory inventory increased by 0.61% to 6547.33 ten - thousand heavy boxes [3]. - Soda ash: The factory inventory decreased by 1.19% to 169.10 million tons, and the delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 11.66% to 33.85 million tons. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days increased by 2.14% to 18.1 days [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Prices and Spreads** - East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon decreased by 100 yuan/ton (-1.03%) to 9650 yuan/ton [6]. - The monthly spreads between different contracts showed various changes, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread decreased by 75.00% [6]. - **Output and Inventory** - In March, Yunnan's industrial silicon output decreased by 14.58% to 1.23 million tons, while Xinjiang's output increased by 26.57% to 21.08 million tons [6]. - Xinjiang's factory warehouse inventory (weekly) decreased by 7.72% to 20.92 million tons, and the social inventory (weekly) decreased by 0.16% to 61.10 million tons [6]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads** - Yunnan state - owned brand - new rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai rose by 100 yuan/ton (0.70%) to 14400 yuan/ton. The full - milk basis (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 15.19% [7]. - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 30 yuan/ton (3.85%), and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 20 yuan/ton (2.25%) [7]. - **Output and Inventory** - In February, Thailand's output decreased by 37.99% to 346.40 thousand tons, and Indonesia's output decreased by 0.50% to 197.60 thousand tons [7]. - The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.24% to 619180 tons, and the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE decreased by 1.04% to 76911 tons [7]. Polysilicon - **Prices and Spreads** - N - type re - feedstock, P - type cauliflower - like feedstock, and granular silicon average prices remained unchanged. PS2506 rose 240 yuan/ton (0.61%) [10]. - The monthly spreads between different contracts showed various changes, such as the PS2506 - PS2507 spread increased by 13.67% [10]. - **Output and Inventory** - In March, polysilicon output increased by 6.66% to 9.61 million tons, and the weekly output increased slightly to 2.23 million tons [10]. - Polysilicon inventory increased by 0.7 million tons to 25.1 million tons, while silicon wafer inventory decreased by 0.93GW to 18.22GW [10].