12月29日（周一），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜飙升至接近每吨13,000美元的纪录高位，因伦敦市场 在周五休市后追赶中国和美国市场的涨势。 伦敦时间12月29日17:00(北京时间12月30日01:00)，LME三个月期铜上涨59.5美元，或0.49%，收报每吨 12,222.0美元。在亚洲交易时段一度飙升6.6%，至创纪录的每吨12,960美元。 苏克顿金融Sucden Financial经纪人Robert Montefusco表示："节礼日当天Comex领涨。" 美国Comex铜期货周五跳涨至每磅5.8395美元，超过7月23日触及的纪录高位，当时美国关税计划实施 日期临近，但周一下跌4.2%，至每磅5.593美元。 尽管美国关税未涉及精炼铜，但该决定将于明年重新审议，促使铜流入美国以便利用当地更高的价格获 利。 美国铜库存积压使其他市场供应趋紧，同时矿山生产中断令许多分析师预测明年将出现供应短缺。 最新价格波动使Comex对LME铜溢价降至每吨112美元，为8月底以来最低，远低于12月初的439美元以 及7月的超过3,000美元。 | | 12月29日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold price has increased due to easing trade tensions between China and the U.S., with the most active December 2025 gold futures rising by $23.3 to $2586.9 per ounce, marking a 0.91% increase [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The gold price and silver price have seen upward movements amid potential easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China [1]. - The December silver futures price decreased by $0.139, closing at $29.083 per ounce, reflecting a 0.48% decline [1]. Group 2: Trade Relations - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced a "New Canada-Mexico Action Plan" aimed at expanding bilateral trade in infrastructure, energy, and agriculture [1]. - The leaders committed to "moving forward together" in enhancing trade relations [1]. Group 3: Export Trends - Swiss customs data revealed that gold exports from Switzerland to the U.S. nearly halted in August, with a decline of over 99% compared to July, amounting to only 0.3 tons [1]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach to restarting the easing cycle has led to a partial weakening of gold price momentum, although analysts believe gold prices remain strongly supported [1].

Group 1 - Oppenheimer raised its annual target for the S&P 500 index to 7100 points, the highest among Wall Street firms, indicating an 11% upside from the latest closing price [1] - The firm attributes its optimistic outlook to easing trade tensions and strong corporate earnings, having previously set the target at 5950 points [1] - A trade agreement was reached between the U.S. and the EU, imposing a 15% tariff on most European goods while the EU committed to purchasing $750 billion in U.S. energy products and investing $600 billion in the U.S. economy [1] Group 2 - Oppenheimer adjusted its earnings forecast for the S&P 500 index back to $275, previously lowered to $265 in April [2] - The firm remains bullish on U.S. stocks, particularly cyclical stocks, anticipating further price increases as inflation slows, and expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in its upcoming policy meeting [2]

Group 1 - The FTSE 100 index in the UK is expected to close at a historical high for the first time since March, recovering from declines caused by tariffs, with a peak of 8871.41 points [1] - The index is trailing behind global benchmarks and the German DAX index, which have both reached historical highs after a drop in April [1] - The FTSE 100 index is still 0.4% lower than its intraday record of 8908.82 points, indicating fragile market sentiment due to companies relocating to the US for listings and postponed IPOs [1] Group 2 - The rebound of the FTSE 100 index is attributed to the suspension of certain tariffs by US President Donald Trump and a trade framework agreement between the UK and the US, alongside improved economic data [4] - The UK stock market is considered one of the cheapest in Europe, with a constructive outlook for investors due to its unique trade agreement with the US [4] - Despite the rebound, the FTSE 100 index has underperformed compared to other European indices, with an 8.5% increase in 2025, significantly lower than the 21% increase of the German benchmark [4]

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The global risk appetite has generally increased due to the easing of trade tensions and better-than-expected US non-farm payroll data. In China, although May exports were slightly lower than expected, the trade surplus was higher than expected, and the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism continued, releasing positive signals, which boosted domestic risk appetite in the short term [3][4]. - Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions. For example, the stock index is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; treasury bonds are expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see; different commodity sectors also have corresponding trends and investment suggestions [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Global and Domestic Situation**: Overseas, the hope of easing trade tensions and better-than-expected US non-farm payroll data alleviated concerns about an impending economic slowdown, increasing global risk appetite. In China, May exports were slightly lower than expected, but the trade surplus was higher than expected, and the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism continued, releasing positive signals, which boosted domestic risk appetite in the short term [3]. - **Asset Performance and Suggestions**: The stock index is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; treasury bonds are expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see. Among commodities, black commodities are expected to rebound at a low level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; non-ferrous metals are expected to rebound with fluctuations in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemical products are expected to rebound with fluctuations in the short term, and it is advisable to be long; precious metals are expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is advisable to be long [3]. Stock Index - **Market Performance**: Driven by sectors such as biomedicine, football concepts, and rare earths, the domestic stock market continued to rise slightly [4]. - **Fundamentals and Suggestions**: China's May exports were slightly lower than expected, but the trade surplus was higher than expected, and the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism continued, releasing positive signals, which boosted domestic risk appetite in the short term. The market's trading logic mainly focuses on changes in US trade policies and the progress of trade negotiations. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [4]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Gold rose slightly due to the weakening dollar, and silver maintained a strong upward trend. - **Fundamentals and Suggestions**: May's non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, but there were concerns in employment data. The ISM manufacturing PMI was at a low level, and inflation expectations remained high, accumulating stagflation risks. There is still uncertainty in the trade situation. Silver has a demand for technical breakthrough and catch-up growth, and the gold-silver ratio may be repaired. Gold is expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is advisable to buy on dips. Pay attention to the weekly CPI price index to judge the Fed's policy path [5]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices continued to rise on Monday as the new round of China-US trade negotiations brought the possibility of easing global trade tensions. The market is also closely watching the progress of US-Iran negotiations. Oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [6][7]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices rose slightly, and asphalt prices followed suit. Demand has recovered to a certain extent, but the recovery amplitude is still limited. The basis in major consumption areas has declined significantly, and the futures structure has weakened following the spot. Inventory destocking has stagnated recently, and it is advisable to continue to follow the high-level fluctuations of crude oil in the short term [7]. - **PX**: PTA's start-up has increased slightly recently, and the demand for PX will increase in the future. The supply pattern will remain tight, but the PX price has declined recently, and it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [7]. - **PTA**: The basis of PTA remains high, but the monthly spread has declined significantly. The supply of the upstream of the polyester end will increase in the short term, and the pattern of downstream load reduction is unlikely to change. The basis has probably reached a stage high recently [7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The visible inventory of ethylene glycol has not been significantly destocked, and the cost pricing logic still exerts pressure on the futures market. The supply of ethylene glycol will increase significantly in the future, and the downstream start-up has decreased month-on-month. It is expected to maintain a volatile pattern recently [8]. - **Short Fiber**: Short fiber generally maintains a weak and volatile pattern. The recovery speed of terminal orders is significantly lower than expected, and the price of short fiber has begun to weaken. It is expected to continue to operate weakly and volatile in the short term [8]. - **Methanol**: The market price of methanol at the port maintains a volatile trend, and the basis has strengthened slightly. The inventory in the inland and at the port has increased simultaneously. It is expected to oscillate and repair in the short term, and the price still has room to decline in the medium and long term [8]. - **PP**: The domestic market quotation of PP is mainly stable, and the inventory has increased after the holiday. The fundamentals are deteriorating, and the futures price is expected to be under pressure and the center of gravity will move down [9]. - **LLDPE**: The price of the polyethylene market has been adjusted, and the inventory has increased. The production expectation suppresses the price, and the price center of gravity is expected to move down [9][10]. Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The China-US negotiation has entered a deep stage, and it is difficult to exceed expectations greatly. The copper mine supply is relatively tight, but the production of electrolytic copper is at a high level. The demand is approaching the off-season, and there is a risk of marginal decline in demand. It is expected to be volatile in the short term [11]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory of aluminum ingots has continued to decline significantly, but the market expectation is weak. The demand may weaken marginally, and the inventory destocking will slow down or even accumulate [11]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight in the domestic real market, and the production rate has declined. The demand is in the off-season, and the inventory has decreased. The resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State may be delayed, and the tin price is expected to continue to repair in the short term, but the upside space is under pressure [12]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Overnight, the net selling of CBOT grain commodity funds increased. The meteorological conditions in the US soybean producing areas are good, and the sowing progress is fast. The USDA's June supply and demand report may have a neutral impact on the market. Pay attention to the end-of-month report on the estimated soybean planting area [13]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: China's soybean imports in May increased significantly year-on-year. The pressure of concentrated arrivals of domestic imports has been realized, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal has been quickly repaired. Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal lack a stable upward driving force [13][14]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The opening of oil mills has returned to normal, and the inventory of soybean oil has continued to rise. The supply of rapeseed oil in the spot market has increased. Pay attention to changes in China-Canada trade policies [15]. - **Palm Oil**: The energy market is under pressure to decline in the medium and long term, and the external油脂 market is under pressure. The domestic import profit is inverted, and the inventory is low. The inventory has increased slightly recently [15]. - **Live Pigs**: As the incremental supply of group farms and the expectation of weight reduction and pressure release in the market are gradually realized, pig prices may continue to be weakly adjusted. There may be a supplementary increase in the near-month contract [16]. - **Corn**: The corn market is affected by wheat policies and is quoted strongly. The short-term upward pressure on the spot and futures prices still exists, but after the wheat harvest, the corn demand will return, and it is still an easy-to-rise and difficult-to-fall market [16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that if trade tensions ease rapidly, global economic growth may accelerate, which could lead to a reduction in the extent of domestic interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia [1] Group 2 - The Reserve Bank of Australia suggests that the current trade environment is a significant factor influencing economic conditions [1] - A potential easing of trade tensions could positively impact both domestic and global economic outlooks [1] - The statement indicates a cautious optimism regarding future monetary policy adjustments based on external economic factors [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced significant volatility on May 15, with a drop of nearly 1.8% to below $3130 per ounce, followed by a rebound to $3209 per ounce, reflecting a daily fluctuation of 2.8% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The decline in gold prices is attributed to reduced investor demand for safe-haven assets as U.S.-China trade talks showed unexpected progress, alleviating global trade tensions [1][2]. - The recent U.S.-China trade negotiations resulted in a joint statement with multiple positive agreements, which has raised hopes for the global economy [2]. - Following the trade "truce" between the two major economies, gold prices have faced downward pressure, with a notable drop of 2.73% earlier in the week [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the long-term trend for gold remains bullish, short-term bearish momentum could lead to price targets of $3136, $3073, and $3000 [3]. - The overall macroeconomic risks are currently low, and further reductions in U.S. tariffs could enhance market risk appetite, leading to potential adjustments in precious metals [3]. - Despite the short-term adjustments, the underlying demand for gold as a safe-haven asset remains due to ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties [3]. Group 3: Trade Agreements - A new trade agreement is expected to be announced by President Trump upon his return from the Middle East, indicating further potential easing of international trade tensions [6]. - Approximately 25 trade agreements are currently under negotiation, with India being highlighted as a potential candidate for a future agreement [6]. - The average effective tariff rate in the U.S. has decreased but remains historically high at 17.8%, the highest since 1934, indicating ongoing trade complexities [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The report gives short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on several agricultural futures including soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil, with all intraday views being "oscillating strongly" [5][6][7]. 3) Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is oscillating strongly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating strongly [5]. - **Core Logic**: CBOT soybean futures reached a three - month high due to eased trade tensions and a bullish USDA report. The significant cut in US soybean production estimates exceeded the cut in exports, leading to an unexpected reduction in US soybean stocks, which boosted US soybean futures prices. After the price difference between domestic and international soybean markets is repaired, the domestic soybean market will also be boosted. However, the domestic soybean meal futures price is temporarily running oscillating strongly under the pressure of supply recovery expectations [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is oscillating strongly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating strongly [7]. - **Core Logic**: The expected increase in Southeast Asian palm oil inventories will still suppress the performance of palm oil futures prices. The implementation progress of Indonesia's B40 policy will be affected by international oil prices. In the short term, rapeseed oil is the vane in the oil sector, and its strong upward trend is expected to continue, which will also give some support to palm oil futures prices, making it run oscillating strongly [7]. Other Varieties (Soybean Oil and Palm Oil in General) - **Core Logic Factors**: For soybean oil 2509, factors include US tariff policy, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic oil mill inventory, and channel stocking demand. For palm 2509, factors involve Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals, inventory, and substitution demand [6].

Market Overview - US stock index futures rose significantly, with Dow futures up 2.34%, S&P 500 futures up 2.89%, and Nasdaq futures up 3.78% [1] - European indices also showed positive movement, with Germany's DAX up 0.52%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.48%, France's CAC40 up 1.32%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 1.52% [2][3] - WTI crude oil increased by 4.08% to $63.51 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by 3.77% to $66.32 per barrel [3][4] Economic Data and Predictions - Upcoming economic data releases include the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), which are expected to reflect the impact of tariffs on consumer purchasing power [5] - Goldman Sachs warns of potential market pressures despite strong Q1 earnings, predicting S&P 500 index earnings growth of only 3% for 2025, below consensus expectations [6] - Morgan Stanley suggests that while market sentiment is improving, it is premature to declare a complete resolution of risks, emphasizing the need for further progress on key economic indicators [7] Company-Specific News - Major tech stocks saw pre-market gains, with Micron Technology, Tesla, and Amazon rising over 7%, while AMD, Qualcomm, and Apple increased over 6% [8] - Pharmaceutical stocks dropped significantly, with Eli Lilly down nearly 4% following Trump's drug pricing policies [8] - Chinese concept stocks also experienced a surge, with GDS Holdings up nearly 10% and Pinduoduo and Xpeng Motors rising over 8% [9] Mergers and Acquisitions - Pan American Silver announced a $2.1 billion acquisition of MAG Silver, with a purchase price of $20.54 per share, representing a 21% premium over MAG Silver's closing price on May 9 [11]

Core Insights - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks have led to optimism in the market regarding the easing of trade tensions, resulting in significant gains in US stock futures and the US dollar [1][4]. Market Reactions - Dow futures rose by 1.83%, S&P 500 futures increased by 2.40%, and Nasdaq futures surged by 3.45% [2]. - The US dollar index (DXY) climbed by 1.27%, reaching 101.61 [1]. - Safe-haven assets such as the euro, yen, and Swiss franc experienced declines, while the 10-year US Treasury yield rose by approximately 7 basis points to 4.447% [2]. Trade Agreement Details - The US and China reached a series of important agreements during the Geneva talks, with a joint statement issued on May 12, 2025, outlining commitments to modify tariffs [1][3]. - The US will suspend 24% of tariffs on Chinese goods for the first 90 days while retaining a 10% tariff, and will cancel additional tariffs imposed under previous executive orders [1][3]. - China will similarly suspend tariffs on US goods and take necessary measures to halt non-tariff retaliatory actions [3]. Market Analyst Comments - Analysts express cautious optimism about the trade agreement, noting that while the initial agreement is a positive step, uncertainties remain regarding its implementation and potential future complications [4]. - Market sentiment has shifted, with the dollar being viewed as a risk asset, and there is a general sense of relief regarding the potential impacts of tariffs on the economy [4]. - The trade tensions' de-escalation is seen as beneficial for both the US economy and global markets, although the temporary nature of the tariff reductions is acknowledged [4].