证 券 研 2025 年 11 月 23 日 A 股估值及行业中观景气跟踪周报 ——行业比较周跟踪（20251115-20251121） 本期投资提示： 证券分析师 林丽梅 A0230513090001 linlm@swsresearch.com 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 haody@swsresearch.com 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 究 报 告 相关研究 - 一、A 股本周估值（截至 2025 年 11 月 21 日） ⚫ 1）指数及板块估值比较： ✓ 中证全指（剔除 ST）PE 为 20.6 倍，PB 为 1.7 倍，处于历史 74%和 36%分位； ✓ 上证 50 指数 PE 为 11.9 倍，PB 为 1.3 倍，处于历史 64%和 43%分位； ✓ 中证 500 指数 P ...

人民财讯11月21日电，国内期货夜盘收盘多数下跌，苯乙烯跌近3%，LU燃油、纯苯、液化气跌超2%， BR橡胶、棕榈油、燃料油、橡胶跌超1%；玉米、玻璃小幅上涨。 （原标题：国内期货夜盘收盘多数下跌 苯乙烯跌近3%） ...

11月21日，国内商品期货夜盘开盘，沪银、NR跌超1%，焦炭、PP等小幅下跌；玉米、玻璃等小幅上 涨。 ...

每经AI快讯，11月21日，国内商品期货夜盘开盘，沪银、NR跌超1%，焦炭、PP等小幅下跌；玉米、玻 璃等小幅上涨。 ...

人民财讯11月21日电，国内期货夜盘开盘，沪银跌逾1%，焦炭等下跌；玉米、玻璃等上涨。 ...

投资有风险，入市需谨慎 | 品种 | 合约 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | 现货价格 | 基差（未折算） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025/11/14 | 2025/11/21 | 变动 | 涨跌幅（%） | | | | 螺纹钢 | RB2601 | 3053 | 3057 | 4 | 0 | 3220 | 163 | | 热卷 | HC2601 | 3256 | 3270 | 14 | 0 | 3270 | 0 | | 铁矿石 | I2601 | 773 | 786 | 13 | 2 | 807 | 22 | | 焦炭 | J2601 | 1670 | 1615 | -55 | -3 | 1770 | 156 | | 焦煤 | JM2601 | 1192 | 1103 | -89 | -7 | 1530 | 427 | | 玻璃 | FG601 | 1032 | 987 | -45 | -4 | 1120 | 133 | | 纯碱 | SA601 | 1226 | 1170 | -56 | -5 | 126 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The futures of olefins and polyolefins are fluctuating widely, with supply - demand contradictions and price trends affected by factors like inventory, cost, and oil prices [2] - Pure benzene price rebounds with uncertain sustainability, and styrene's price is supported by short - term supply - demand improvement [3] - In the polyester industry, prices of PX, PTA, etc., are affected by multiple factors, and the supply of ethylene glycol is under pressure [5] - Methanol and urea markets have their own supply - demand situations and price trends [6] - PVC and caustic soda are in a weak operation state due to supply - demand imbalances [7] - Soda ash shows a long - term oversupply pattern, and glass has limited downward space [8] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene enterprise inventory is low, but downstream polypropylene cost pressure and low international oil prices may affect the market [2] - Polyethylene and polypropylene futures close down, with supply - demand contradictions in both markets [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene price rebounds with uncertain continuity, and styrene has short - term supply - demand support [3] Polyester - PTA price drops with the decline of PX and oil prices, and the supply of ethylene glycol is under pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol is in a weak operation, and urea may have an oscillating callback [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC and caustic soda are in a weak state due to supply - demand imbalances [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is in an oversupply situation, and glass has limited downward space [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - No relevant content Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - For soda ash, the current week's开工率 is 82.68%, a decrease of 2.12% from the previous value; the产量 is 72.09 (unit not specified, presumably in a certain quantity), a decrease of 1.83 from the previous value; the重质产量 is 39.62, a decrease of 1.47 from the previous value; the轻质产量 is 32.47, a decrease of 0.36 from the previous value [1]. - For glass, the current week's开工率 is 74.854%, a decrease of 0.146% from the previous value; the产线条数 remains 222; the产量 is 111.0195 (unit not specified, presumably in a certain quantity), a decrease of 0.375 from the previous value [1]. Inventory - For soda ash, the厂内库存 is 164.44 (unit not specified, presumably in a certain quantity), a decrease of 6.29 from the previous value; the重质库存 is 88.73, a decrease of 1.98 from the previous value; the轻质库存 is 75.71, a decrease of 4.31 from the previous value; the库存可用天数 is 13.63 days, a decrease of 0.53 days from the previous value [1]. - For glass, the库存 is 6330.3 (unit not specified, presumably in a certain quantity), an increase of 5.6 from the previous value; the库存可用天数 remains 27.5 days [1]. Profit - For soda ash, the氨碱法毛利 is -38.5 (unit not specified, presumably in yuan/ton), a decrease of 15 from the previous value; the联产法毛利 is -153.5 (unit not specified, presumably in yuan/ton), an increase of 28.5 from the previous value [1]. - For glass, the天然气利润 is -206.84 (unit not specified, presumably in yuan/ton), a decrease of 19.14 from the previous value; the石油焦利润 is 8.52 (unit not specified, presumably in yuan/ton), a decrease of 24 from the previous value; the煤制气利润 is 25.79 (unit not specified, presumably in yuan/ton), a decrease of 25.47 from the previous value [1]. Basis & Spread - For soda ash, the基差 is -30, an increase of 15 from the previous value; the 1 - 5价差 is 74, an increase of 8 from the previous value; the纯碱 - glass 01价差 is 169, a decrease of 14 from the previous value; the纯碱 - glass 05价差 is 113, a decrease of 19 from the previous value [1]. - For glass, the基差 is 81, an increase of 33 from the previous value; the 1 - 5价差 is 130, an increase of 13 from the previous value [1].

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 11 月 21 日） | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周四尿素期货价格宽幅震荡，主力01合约收盘价1665元/吨，日环比持平。现货市 到100%以上。 度招标价格 步公布，目前 收到24家投 ，东海 最低价 | 坚挺 震荡 | | | 场继续偏强运行，主流地区现货价格多数仍有10~20元/吨的上调，山东、河南地区 | | | | 市场价格分别为1640元/吨，1630元/吨，日环比分别上调10元/吨、持平。基本面来 | | | | 看，尿素供应水平日内稳定，行业日产量昨日继续维持在20.25万吨。需求跟进情绪 | | | | 进一步放缓，昨日主流地区现货产销率回 至20% 90%区间，仅个别地区能够达 | | | | CFR418.40 元/吨，较上一 有所提升。中国货源能 参与仍存不确定性，后续继 | | | | 续关注印标量价结 。整体来看，国 市场及印标扰动仍存，预计尿素期货盘面坚 | | | | 挺震荡为主，关注现货成交情 、印标及国 市场动 。 | | | 纯碱 | 周四纯碱期货价格 ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 地缘消息扰动，油价下挫。短期扰动：消息泽连斯基同意与美国合作制定 | | 原油 | | 和平计划，并将在近期与特朗普会谈；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩，消费淡 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 季叠加 | OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增，原油供 | | | | 给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地 | | | | 缘进展。策略：空单部分止盈。 | | | | 下游开工率下降，库存累库，液化气承压。成本端原油受俄乌地缘扰动， | | LPG | | 震荡调整，大趋势仍向下；供需方面，下游化工开工率下降，商品量小幅 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 下降；库存端偏利空，港口与厂内库存累库。策略：轻仓试空。 | | | | 成本支撑转弱，10 月进口量持稳。国内开工季节性回升，近期进口资源集 | | L | | 中到港，国内外供给充足。下游开工率连续 5 周下滑，11 月下旬后棚膜旺 | | | 空头盘整 | 季逐步收尾，需求支部不足。油价中期仍存 ...