Core Insights - The rapid rise of quantum computing stocks is expected to be followed by a significant decline, indicating a potential bubble in the market [1][10][11] Market Performance - Quantum computing stocks have shown trailing-12-month returns of up to 3,170% as of October 31, with companies like IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc. leading the surge [2] - Current market capitalizations for these companies range from $3.7 billion for Quantum Computing Inc. to $21.7 billion for IonQ, despite a lack of supporting data for such high valuations [3] Technology and Use Cases - Quantum computing utilizes specialized computers based on quantum mechanics to solve complex problems beyond the capabilities of traditional computers [5] - Potential applications include enhancing AI algorithms, improving drug trial success rates, strengthening cybersecurity, refining weather forecasting, and optimizing investment portfolios [5] Investment Dynamics - The surge in quantum computing stocks has been fueled by potential partnerships and financing opportunities, including discussions of equity stakes by the Trump administration [7] - Major cloud computing services like Amazon's Braket and Microsoft's Azure Quantum are providing access to quantum computing resources, further legitimizing the technology [8] Market Sentiment - The phenomenon of "FOMO" (fear of missing out) is driving investor behavior, contributing to the rapid price increases of quantum computing stocks [9] - Historical trends suggest that every major technological advancement has experienced a bubble-bursting event, indicating that quantum computing may follow suit [12][15] Valuation Concerns - Current valuations of quantum computing stocks are unsustainable, with price-to-sales (P/S) ratios reminiscent of the dot-com bubble, where leading companies peaked at P/S ratios of 30 to 40 [16] - The S&P 500's Shiller P/E Ratio is currently at 41.20, suggesting that a market correction could disproportionately affect high-valuation stocks like those in quantum computing [19][20] Future Projections - Consensus sales projections for 2027 indicate that even with significant sales growth, existing valuations for quantum computing stocks cannot be justified [18]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion revolves around whether the current growth in AI-related stocks constitutes a bubble, with a focus on the sustainability of capital expenditure (capex) growth and its implications for future earnings [1][2]. Group 1: AI Stock Growth - AI-related stocks are experiencing supernormal growth due to a significant phase of capex buildout in the AI cycle [2]. - The strong earnings growth in these companies suggests that valuations are not as extended as they were during the dot-com bubble in 1999 [2]. Group 2: Future Capex and Earnings - There is a concern that companies may be over-earning, indicating that the current capex growth may eventually slow down as demand and energy supply reach capacity [3][4]. - Monitoring the pace of capex growth through 2026 will be crucial to understanding the sustainability of the bullish AI trend [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Corrections - The current market sentiment does not reflect the extreme positioning typically seen in bubble scenarios, suggesting that there may still be room for growth [6][7]. - Historical patterns indicate that significant upward movements in stock prices are often followed by sharp corrections, which could happen if a melt-up occurs [5][7].

Futures taking a leg lower this morning. And joining us right now is Joanne Feny, partner and portfolio manager at Advisors Capital Management. Of course, the question Joanne is when we're talking about a bubble, every time people talk about a bubble, including myself talking about a bubble these days, whether that means we're really not in one yet or at least that it's not ready to pop.What do you think. >> Well, you know, Andrew, I don't I don't think we're in a bubble. Uh we look at, you know, history of ...

In 2018, I analyzed the Rule of 20 and stated then that we were in a bubble. My analysis was simple at the time, but I noted that we were overpriced by 32.5%. Although the marketThe Barnacle is a quantitative analyst and has been in and out of the investing business since 2003. He is a former member of Marketocracy's M100 Club. He has a degree in mathematics and believes that mathematics is the root of all success. If the numbers tell one to do something, then do it. When one reads his posts, one will reali ...

Market Overview - The S&P 500 is perceived as expensive, but earnings growth may justify high valuations if it continues [2] - The concentration of the S&P 500 index is notable, with the top 10 holdings representing 40% of the index, similar to historical levels [2] - The current bull market is characterized by a significant run in large-cap stocks, while small and mid-cap stocks have lagged [7] Commodities - Precious metals have seen substantial gains this year: Gold (+51.3%), Silver (+64.7%), Platinum (+73%), Palladium (+59.1%) [16] - The S&P GSCI commodity index is only up 1.3% due to the significant weight of crude oil, which is down 15% [14] - Other commodities like coffee (+22.6%) and cattle (+21.9%) have performed well, indicating a mixed performance across the sector [16] Real Estate - Domestic real estate has struggled with the DJ US Real Estate index up just 3.8%, while international real estate has outperformed at +20.7% [18] - The recent Fed rate cut did not positively impact long-term rates, which have increased by about 15 basis points since the last meeting [18] Fixed Income - Bonds have produced positive returns for the third consecutive year, with corporate bonds being the second-best performing domestic bond index [20] - International bonds, particularly emerging market bonds, have performed well, benefiting from currency gains [20] International Markets - Non-US markets have outperformed US markets significantly, despite the imposition of tariffs by the US [9][11] - The outperformance may be attributed to capital flows and a perceived risk associated with the US dollar [11]

Every generation believes they have figured out how to prevent the next financial crisis. The dot-com boom taught us that valuations matter. The housing bubble proved that leverage always finds a limit. The meme stock mania showed how mass emotion can overpower fundamentals. Each time, investors made promises that they had learned their lessons. Yet here we are in 2025, deep into the fun and fair of the AI revolution, confident that this time is different. It isn’t. The next bubble will not be powered by h ...

The Wall Street Journal reports the biggest tech companies are pouring 400 billion with a B dollars into the development of AI this year alone, which is making the larger investor class a little nervous, worried all this money and all this excitement is way too concentrated. Joining us now, CNBC senior analyst and commentator Ron Insana and co-host of the Prof Markets podcast, Edson. Ron, you and I have talked about this before.reports a whole lot of money in one place. I remember being told, "Don't put all ...

1) Very clear overvaluation. There are 5 different approaches to this: i) The P/E rises to c45X to 73X for at least 30% of market cap on a 10 year bond yield of, at least, 5.5% in previous bubbles. Currently, the Mag 6 trade on 35X 12 month trailing; ii) The ERP falls to c1% (2000, 1929); iii) Investors move away from conventional valuations to unconventional (land value in Japan in 1989 or eyeballs in TMT) or just focus relative value; iv) TAMs (Total Addressable Market) required to justify valuations beco ...

this is the melania launch for real retailthis is obviously a bubble and we are about to get punched in the face by prime tyson on trenpivot to privacy so you can at least hide your balances from yourselfWatcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru):JUST IN: OpenAI prepares for IPO at $1 trillion valuation, Reuters reports. ...

Core Viewpoint - The current AI bull run is characterized as a boom rather than a bubble, with expectations for continued growth driven by major technology companies and AI capital expenditures [2][3]. Group 1: AI Market Insights - The AI bull run is showing no signs of slowing down, with notable Wall Street analysts optimistic about its continuation [1]. - Michael Kantrowitz from Piper Sandler emphasizes that the current economic conditions do not suggest an imminent bubble burst, as the economy remains strong and monetary policy is shifting towards easier conditions [3]. Group 2: Hedge Fund Investments - Hedge funds are increasingly investing in specific stocks, with a strategy that has outperformed the market significantly since May 2014, returning 427.7% [6]. - The iShares Biotechnology ETF (NASDAQ:IBB) is highlighted as a potential beneficiary of M&A activity in the biotech sector, driven by the need for big pharma to rebuild their pipelines [7]. - Ares Capital Corporation (NASDAQ:ARCC) is being bought despite credit market concerns, with expectations of a 10% yield and potential for a 20% total return in the coming year [9]. - IONQ Inc (NYSE:IONQ) is viewed as a long-term investment in quantum computing, but analysts caution that profitability may take several years to materialize [10]. - Vertiv Holdings Co (NYSE:VRT) is recognized for its strong position in the data center market, with significant growth potential and a backlog of $8.5 billion [12][13]. - First Solar Inc (NASDAQ:FSLR) is considered a cheap energy stock with potential benefits from increasing AI power demands and supportive U.S. energy policies [16][17]. - Vistra Corp (NYSE:VST) has seen rising stock prices due to expectations of increased power demand from AI, although concerns about valuation have been raised [17].