🚨 ALERT: US consumer sentiment has crashed to its 2nd-lowest level in history, per The Kobeissi Letter. https://t.co/QOJiupWkYn ...

>> THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER" LIVE FROM WASHINGTON DC JOE: FROM BLOOMBERG WASHINGTON, D.C.'S TO OUR TV AND RADIO AUDIENCES WORLDWIDE, WELCOME TO "BALANCE OF POWER. " ALONGSIDE TYLER KENDALL, I AM JOE MATHIEU. THE DISRUPTIONS BEGAN. THE IMPACTED AIRPORTS ACROSS THE COUNTRY AFTER FLIGHTS ARE REDUCED IN 40 MAJOR CITIES AND IT ALL COMES BACK TO THE ONGOING GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN. WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYING MOMENTS AGO THE SENATE SHOULD NOT LEAVE TOWN UNTIL THEY HAVE A DEAL. WE WILL SPEAK TO OUR REPORTERS IN WASHI ...

Market Overview - Pre-market trading has declined, reflecting a cautious sentiment towards AI infrastructure spending and a lack of economic data, particularly during what was expected to be Jobs Week [1] - The market has seen a downward trend over the past five days, moving away from all-time highs reached in late October [1] Employment Data - Non-farm payroll numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) are unavailable due to a government shutdown, with estimates suggesting a loss of 60,000 jobs last month [2] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5%, while hourly wages are anticipated to remain steady at a year-over-year increase of 0.3% [2] - ADP reported an addition of 42,000 new jobs, which is better than BLS estimates but still indicates a weak labor market [3] - The Challenger Job Cuts report indicated 153,000 job cuts, highlighting ongoing challenges in employment [3] Interest Rate Expectations - There is a tentative expectation for a 25 basis-point interest rate cut in approximately 4.5 weeks, although market indexes may have already priced in this cut [4] - The "neutral rate" of inflation is uncertain but is believed to be higher than the optimal 2% [4] Earnings Reports - Wendy's (WEN) reported Q3 earnings of $0.24 per share, exceeding expectations by 20%, leading to a 9% increase in shares [5] - Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) posted earnings of $3.28 per share, surpassing the consensus estimate by 46.4%, although shares are down 2% in early trading [5] - Fluor (FLR) reported Q3 earnings of $0.68 per share, beating expectations by 54.55%, with shares up 4.6% in pre-market trading [6] - Constellation Energy (CEG) reported earnings of $3.04 per share, falling short of the anticipated $3.13, resulting in a 6.3% decline in shares [7] - Canopy Growth (CGC) shares increased by 12% despite reporting a loss of $0.01 per share, an improvement from the expected loss of $0.10 [8] Consumer Sentiment and Credit - The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report for November is expected to show a slight decrease to 53.0 from 53.6, remaining above the neutral threshold of 50 [9] - Consumer credit for September is projected to total $10.0 billion [9]

Yes, Carl. Just hitting the wires, our November preliminary view of University of Michigan Senate and the accompanying inflation indications. Headline number comes in light.50.3%, very light. We were supposed to get a number 53. Our last final look was 53.6%.50.0% 0 would be the weakest since well the all-time low which was 50 and 50 came in at June of 22 that is the low if you go back to the 70s that's still the low so very close 52.3% on current conditions another huge miss 52.3% well you're now going bac ...

Breaking: Consumer sentiment has sunk to a near-record low, a closely watched University of Michigan survey shows https://t.co/1uzjgCXyse ...

Consumer Sentiment - The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey indicates a decline in consumer expectations, with the index at 49, below the contractionary threshold of 50 [2][4] - Current conditions index is reported at 52.3, significantly lower than the expected 59.2, reflecting a deteriorating sentiment [3][4] - One-year inflation expectations have increased slightly to 4.7% from 4.6%, suggesting growing concerns about rising prices among consumers [3][4] Market Impact - The decline in consumer sentiment is contributing to market pressure, particularly in the technology and communication services sectors [5] - Despite the overall pessimism, individuals with substantial stock portfolios are feeling somewhat more optimistic, possibly influenced by the timing of the survey release before the upcoming election [5] Commodity Market - Mixed signals are observed in the commodity market, with oil prices showing a slight increase while industrial metals are experiencing a pullback due to concerns over China's export contraction [8][9] - The U.S. government has added critical minerals like uranium, silver, and copper to its list, which may positively impact U.S.-based mining companies [11][12] Geopolitical Factors - Hungary's Prime Minister Victor Orban is set to meet with former President Trump, with discussions likely to include energy deals, particularly regarding Russian oil and natural gas [14][15] - The geopolitical dynamics surrounding Hungary's energy imports could introduce risks to the market, especially in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [16] Technical Analysis - The S&P 500 is testing its 50-day moving average, a critical support level that has not been broken since before the tariff tensions [18][21] - Increased put activity suggests a cautious market outlook, but a potential rebound could occur if support levels hold [20][21] Legislative Developments - Senator Thun is expected to vote on a package to reopen the government, which may influence market sentiment positively if concessions are made [22][23] - Airlines like United Airlines are seeing stock price recoveries, indicating potential market uplift from favorable news regarding government negotiations [23]

Greg Frankfort is the lead restaurant analyst over at Guggenheim Securities. He's with us now for more color on that conversation. Greg, Kate's report talked a little bit and focused more so on that kind of lower income consumer feeling the pain.Is that going to reverberate through not just McDonald's but other parts of fast food as well. Yeah, it's it's it's clearly been the issue and I I think Chipotle's probably laid it out the clearest that that kind of sub45,000 uh uh 45,000 household income customer h ...

Summary of China Consumer Pulse Q3 2025 Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Consumer Market - **Key Sectors Analyzed**: Alcohol, Apparel, Beauty, Travel, Luxury Goods, Autos Core Insights 1. **Mixed Consumer Sentiment**: Chinese consumer sentiment remains mixed, with a notable divergence in spending patterns across sectors [2][29][30] 2. **Experiential Spending Resilience**: Experiential categories such as restaurants (+24% YoY) and travel (+16% YoY) show resilience, indicating a shift towards experiences over goods [2][35] 3. **Premium Demand Recovery**: Onshore luxury spending has improved, with premium auto sales stabilizing and showing positive year-over-year growth in September, ending a 19-month decline [2][30] 4. **Digital Channels Outperform**: Digital retail channels continue to outperform traditional retail, although there are signs of weakness in specific segments like beauty e-commerce, which saw a -3% decline [2][29][30] 5. **GDP and Retail Growth Slowdown**: China's Q3 GDP growth slowed to 4.8% YoY, with retail growth easing to 2.1%, attributed to fading consumer incentives and macroeconomic uncertainties [3][29] 6. **Deflationary Trends**: Deflationary pressures persist across travel and hotel pricing, with moderate price declines observed [12][29] Sector-Specific Insights Premium Beverages - **Weak Demand**: Ultra-premium Baijiu prices continued to slide in Q3 due to weak demand, particularly around the Mid-Autumn Festival [4][30] Apparel and Sportswear - **Mixed Performance**: The apparel market is growing online but remains negative offline, with brands like Adidas showing over 20% growth while Nike faces challenges [5][22] Home Appliances - **Sector Contraction**: The home appliance sector contracted by 7% in Q3, with significant declines in both domestic and overseas exports [7][31] Luxury Goods - **Signs of Improvement**: Early signs of recovery in the luxury market, with brands like Hermès and Louis Vuitton performing well, while Kering struggles [8][9][30] Automotive - **Sales Growth Slowdown**: Auto sales growth slowed to +2.5% YoY in Q3, with EV sales decelerating to +12.5% YoY. However, EV penetration reached 55.1% [10][16][17] Hotels - **RevPAR Declines**: Domestic hotel RevPAR continues to decline, with luxury hotels being the only segment not experiencing persistent declines [10][23] Travel - **Resilient Growth**: The travel industry showed stable positive growth of 16% during the National Day Golden Week, reflecting ongoing domestic travel trends [11][12] Cosmetics - **Moderate Growth**: The cosmetics sector saw a +6.5% YoY increase in gross merchandise value, marking an improvement from previous quarters [13][29] Additional Considerations - **Cautious Consumer Behavior**: The macroeconomic environment is expected to lead to cautious, value-driven consumer behavior, highlighting the uneven recovery across sectors [3][32] - **Investment Implications**: The outlook for various sectors remains cautious, with potential growth in EVs and premium segments, while traditional sectors face challenges [16][17][22][23]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - D.R. Horton reported consolidated pre-tax income of $1.2 billion on revenues of $9.7 billion for Q4 2025, with a pre-tax profit margin of 12.4% [7] - For the full year, consolidated pre-tax income was $4.7 billion, with a pre-tax profit margin of 13.8% [7] - Net income for Q4 was $905.3 million, or $3.04 per diluted share, on consolidated revenues of $9.7 billion [9] - The average closing sales price for Q4 was $365,600, down 1% sequentially and down 3% year-over-year [9] - The company generated $3.4 billion of cash from operations in fiscal 2025, representing 10% of total revenues [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Home sales revenues for Q4 were $8.5 billion on 23,368 homes closed [9] - Net sales orders in Q4 increased 5% year-over-year to 20,078 homes, with order value increasing 3% to $7.3 billion [10] - The gross profit margin on home sales revenues in Q4 was 20%, down 180 basis points sequentially [11] - Rental operations generated $81 million of pre-tax income on $805 million of revenues in Q4 [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average number of active selling communities was up 1% sequentially and up 13% from the prior year [10] - The company’s home building lot position at year-end consisted of approximately 592,000 lots, with 25% owned and 75% controlled through purchase contracts [15] - Lot costs increased by 8% year-over-year on a per square foot basis [60] Company Strategy and Development Direction - D.R. Horton remains focused on capital efficiency to generate strong operating cash flows and deliver compelling returns to shareholders [8] - The company plans to tailor product offerings and sales incentives based on demand in each market to maximize returns [8] - The strategic relationship with Forestar is vital for the company’s returns-focused business model, with Forestar reporting revenues of $671 million in Q4 [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management anticipates that new home demand will continue to be impacted by affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment [21] - For fiscal 2026, the company expects consolidated revenues of approximately $33.5 billion to $35 billion and homes closed to be in the range of 86,000 to 88,000 [21] - Management expressed a positive outlook for the housing market over the medium to long term, despite current volatility and uncertainty in the economy [23] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 4.6 million shares for $689 million in Q4 and 30.7 million shares for $4.3 billion for the full year [19] - D.R. Horton’s fiscal year-end stockholders' equity was $24.2 billion, down 4% from a year ago, but book value per share was up 5% to $82.15 [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: How to think about the transition from 20% gross margin in Q4 to 20%-20.5% in Q1? - Management indicated that the unusual impact from litigation costs is not expected to persist into Q1, and the baseline would reflect a more normal impact from warranty and litigation going forward [27] Question: Can you discuss the starts pace and how quickly it can ramp up? - Management acknowledged that starts were intentionally lower to align inventory and indicated confidence in ramping up starts to meet demand as needed [28] Question: What is the outlook for rental operations in Q1? - Management expects rental operations to be a bit softer in Q1, with a heavier delivery expected in the back half of the year [32] Question: Can you provide insight into the Southeast market performance? - Management noted that while some areas in Florida are struggling with inventory balance, overall demand in the Southeast remains choppy [74] Question: What are the expectations for lot costs moving forward? - Management indicated that lot costs are expected to remain sticky, with an 8% year-over-year increase noted [60]

Core Insights - Consumer confidence has reached its lowest level since April, indicating a significant decline in economic sentiment [1] - The drop in consumer confidence is attributed to slumping income expectations, which are influenced by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and rising inflation [1] Summary by Categories Consumer Confidence - Consumer confidence has decreased to its lowest point since April [1] - This decline reflects a broader concern among consumers regarding economic stability [1] Income Expectations - There has been a notable slump in income expectations among consumers [1] - The decrease in income expectations is a critical factor contributing to the overall decline in consumer confidence [1] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Continued geopolitical uncertainty is impacting consumer sentiment negatively [1] - Higher inflation rates are also contributing to the decline in consumer confidence and income expectations [1]