Forbes Daily: Consumer Sentiment And Spending Defied Expectations In June https://t.co/IE1zVSWOLv ...

Forbes Daily: Consumer Sentiment And Spending Defied Expectations In Junehttps://t.co/hVDFbXfBaS https://t.co/TKO3DZ4chl ...

Market Overview - Pre-market futures show positive movement with the Dow up +0.12%, S&P 500 +0.09%, Nasdaq +0.16%, and Russell 2000 leading at +0.52% [1] Bond Market - Bond yields remain stable with the 10-year yield at +4.44%, a slight increase of 3 basis points from last Friday, while the 2-year yield is at +3.88% and the 30-year yield at +5.00% [2] Housing Market - Housing Starts for June are reported at 1.32 million, slightly above projections, but still historically low compared to multi-year highs of 500K more in April 2022 [3] - Building Permits increased to 1.397 million from 1.394 million in May, but remain low compared to nearly 2 million in January 2022, prior to interest rate hikes [4] Company Earnings - 3M reported Q2 earnings of $2.16 per share, exceeding expectations of $2.01, with revenues of $6.2 billion, raising full-year 2025 earnings guidance to $7.75-8.00 per share [5] - American Express surpassed Q2 expectations with earnings of $4.08 per share and revenues of $17.9 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of +9% [6] - Charles Schwab's Q2 report showed earnings of $1.14 per share and revenues of $5.85 billion, both exceeding consensus estimates, with shares up +5% in pre-market trading [7] Economic Indicators - A preliminary print on Consumer Sentiment for July is expected to improve to 61.8 from 60.7, aligning with a healthier economic outlook as fears of tariffs impacting the economy have lessened [8]

Consumer Sentiment vs Reality - Consumer sentiment has been unreliable in predicting the economy's direction [1] - Consumers are good at judging their own finances, but pessimistic about the overall economy due to media influence [2][3] - Consumer sentiment is often influenced by political affiliation [4] - It's more reliable to observe consumer spending habits than to rely on sentiment surveys [6][7] Consumer Spending and Economic Resilience - Household consumption has been steadily increasing [7] - Big banks' earnings reports show no significant cracks in the US consumer [9] - Charge-offs at big banks were below expectations, indicating no consumer credit stress [10] - The job market is the primary driver of consumer spending [10] - The labor market is cooling, but still adding jobs at a reasonable pace [11][12] - As long as real wage growth is positive, consumption will continue to be supported [13] Inflation and Tariffs - The year-over-year CPI number of 27% is driven by a low base period in the previous year [14] - Month-over-month CPI numbers are within or below expectations [15] - Economists are finding evidence that tariffs are pushing prices up, especially in product categories dominated by imports [18][19] - Trump's tariffs might raise inflation from 27% to 35%-4% [21] - Inflation had fallen to a low of 23% earlier in the year, but is now trending in the wrong direction [24]

Market Performance - NASDAQ is the only major market to close in the green [1] - Dow is down almost 1 percentage point [2] - S&P 500 is down about 04 percentage point [3] - S&P 600, a small cap market, is down 21%, marking the worst day for small caps in almost 8 weeks [4] - Tech is the only sector in the green, with Materials down 2% [6][7] Economic Indicators and Analysis - The 30-year yield is back above 5%, impacting equities [4] - CPI inflation is stalling out, with tariffs affecting goods inflation [10] - Consumer sentiment is delivering false alarms, with consumers judging their own finances positively but the overall economy negatively [35] - Economists suggest focusing on consumer spending rather than sentiment [40] - June CPI report shows a year-over-year number of 27%, but month-over-month numbers are fine, with the core number at 02% [47][48] Company Specific News - Nvidia is up 404%, resuming sales of some chips in China, potentially adding $8 billion in revenue [8][18][19] - JP Morgan's earnings were strong, with net interest income guidance exceeding expectations by at least $15 billion and investment banking revenues up over 9% year-on-year [25][26][27] - Bank of America expects net interest income to rise about 7% from the previous quarter [62]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Consumer sentiment toward the economy and household finances has stabilized amid ongoing tariff concerns, with inflation remaining the primary concern for consumers [1][7] - The report indicates a slight decline in consumer confidence regarding the economic outlook, with 37% expecting improvement and 47% anticipating deterioration, resulting in a NET score of -10% [7][61] - Concerns over tariffs remain elevated but stable, with 39% of consumers very concerned, down from 43% in April [7][14] - The spending outlook remains stable, with 32% of consumers planning to spend more in the next month, yielding a NET of +15% [19][84] - Travel intentions are strong, with approximately 60% of consumers planning to travel in the next six months, reflecting optimism in leisure travel [117] Consumer Sentiment - Inflation is the top concern for consumers at 57%, down from 59% last month, while political concerns have risen to 43% [8][37] - Geopolitical conflict concerns increased to 31% this month from 21% last month [7][8] - Low-income consumers are more worried about paying rent/mortgage and debts, while upper-income consumers focus on investment concerns [9][42] Macro Outlook - Consumer confidence in the U.S. economy is slightly down, with 37% expecting improvement and 47% expecting deterioration, leading to a NET score of -10% [61][71] - The outlook for household finances remains positive, with 43% expecting improvement and a NET score of +16% [64][70] Tariff Impact - 39% of consumers report being very concerned about tariffs, with 33% planning to cut back on spending in response [14][19] - The level of concern about tariffs varies significantly by political affiliation, with 63% of liberals very concerned compared to 23% of conservatives [14][50] Spending Intentions - The short-term spending outlook is stable, with 32% of consumers expecting to spend more next month, yielding a NET of +15% [84][88] - 30% of consumers reported making a major purchase in the past three months, with 58% planning a major purchase in the next three months [97][98] Travel Intentions - Approximately 60% of consumers plan to travel in the next six months, with visiting friends and family being the most common reason [117][119]

Oil prices spiking following Israel's strike on Iran, adding an inflationary input ahead of the Fed's meeting next week. Meanwhile, we just got a positive signal from the data. An early read on Michigan consumer sentiment for June coming in well above expectations.Also, inflation expectations fell. Joining us is former Dallas Fed President and CNBC contributor Richard Fiser. So Richard, is is it your view that this is just going to make the Fed even more patient on its stance to do anything because it has t ...

U.S. stock futures drop and oil futures jump after Israel's attack on Iran, Adobe posts better-than-expected results and lifts its outlook, and analysts expect consumer sentiment to have improved. Here's what investors need to know today. https://t.co/OvmVdWQHKg ...

The results of the CNBC NRF retail monitor for May just released. Let's get to Steve Leeman. He has more on this.Hi, Steve. Hey, Becky. Consumer spending growth slowed in May.Apparent payback from strong April outlays that were propelled by consumers pulling forward purchases ahead of tariffs. And consumers of course could now face new challenges after developments overnight in the Middle East. Uh the CNBC NRF retail monitor.It's powered by real credit card spending data from Affinity Solutions showed a 0.5 ...

June 6, 2025 02:10 PM GMT Asia/Pacific Weekly Preview | Asia Pacific M Update China's Inflation to Soften; Softer Australia Business Sentiment Key Takeaways Australia China India • CPI: CPI to slow in YOY terms but to rise sequentially due to higher food prices. Japan • GDP 2nd Preliminary: Slight downward revision in real capex. Upward revision to public investment. Real GDP growth at -0.8% QoQ SAAR. Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+ Derrick Y Kam Asia Economist Derrick.Kam@morganstanley.com +65 6834-8 ...