Each week we run a DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) model on a company from our watchlist. This week’s pick: Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER).ProfileUber Technologies Inc. is a global leader in ridesharing and food delivery, operating across more than 70 countries. After years of operating losses, Uber has recently achieved profitability on a net income and free cash flow basis. Its platform benefits from strong network effects, diversified business lines (Mobility, Delivery, Freight), and continued growth in gross ...

Company Overview - Brambles Ltd (ASX: BXB) share price has increased by 30.1% since the beginning of 2025, attracting investor interest [1][2] - The company operates the world's largest pool of reusable pallets, crates, and containers, primarily under the CHEP brand, with a presence in the Asia-Pacific, Americas, and EMEA regions [2] Business Model - Brambles generates revenue through a hiring model, where manufacturers transfer products on CHEP pallets to retailers, and Brambles collects daily hire fees at each step of the supply chain [3] Industry Context - The S&P/ASX 200 Industrials Index has returned 8.4% over the last 5 years, slightly below the ASX 200 return of 8.5%, indicating a stable investment environment for industrials companies like Brambles [4] - Companies in the industrials sector often have reliable revenue streams due to essential services they provide, which can lead to predictable future revenue [5][6] Revenue Growth - Brambles has experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6% in revenue over the last 3 years, reflecting its strong market position [6] Dividend Information - Brambles currently offers a dividend yield of 2.02%, with an average yield of 2.7% over the past 5 years, making it an attractive option for income-seeking investors [7][9] - The current dividend yield is below its historical average, suggesting potential for growth in dividends [9][10] Economic Sensitivity - Investment in industrials companies like Brambles is often seen as a bet on economic growth, as revenue is closely tied to government infrastructure investment and population growth [8]

Group 1: Transurban Group (TCL) - Transurban Group's share price has increased by 7.9% since the beginning of 2025 [1] - The company manages and develops urban toll road networks in Australia, Canada, and the United States, with interests in 22 urban motorways [1][2] - Transurban's notable motorways include CityLink in Melbourne, Hills M2 in Sydney, and Logan Motorway in Brisbane [1] Group 2: Financial Performance and Valuation - Transurban has a current dividend yield of approximately 4.28%, which is higher than its 5-year average of 3.64%, indicating potential growth in dividends [5] - The annual report shows that last year's dividend was greater than the 3-year average, suggesting that dividends have been increasing [5] Group 3: Fortescue Ltd (FMG) - Fortescue Ltd is a leading iron ore production and exploration company, shipping over 190 million tonnes annually [3] - The company is expanding its exploration efforts across multiple countries, targeting materials such as copper, rare earths, and lithium [3] - FMG offers a historical dividend yield of around 10.44%, which is comparable to its 5-year average of 10.52% [6]

Company Overview - ResMed is a medical equipment company based in San Diego, California, originally founded in Australia, specializing in cloud-connectable CPAP machines for obstructive sleep apnea treatment [2] - The company operates globally with over 10,000 employees and a presence in more than 140 countries, divided into two primary business units: Sleep and Respiratory Care, and Software as a Service (SaaS) [3] - Netwealth is a wealth management software business that provides a platform for financial planners, with over 140,000 account holders and $88 billion in funds under administration as of 2024 [5] Business Model and Services - ResMed's Sleep and Respiratory Care unit offers industry-leading CPAP machines, catering to a wide range of patients from those needing nightly therapy to those requiring life-support ventilation [3] - The SaaS unit provides software for durable or home medical equipment, enhancing out-of-hospital care [3][4] - Netwealth's platform allows users to manage investments, track performance, and access financial reports through a user-friendly interface [6] Financial Performance and Valuation - ResMed shares have a current price-sales ratio of 5.63x, significantly lower than its 5-year average of 8.70x, indicating potential undervaluation or increased sales [8] - In contrast, Netwealth shares trade at a price-sales ratio of 30.23x, above its 5-year average of 23.72x, suggesting a higher valuation relative to historical performance [9]

Company Overview - Downer EDI Ltd (ASX:DOW) has seen its share price increase by 36.9% since the beginning of 2025, indicating potential investment interest [1] - The company is a leading provider of integrated infrastructure services in Australia and New Zealand, focusing on construction, maintenance, and operation of transit systems, utility services, and public infrastructure [1] Revenue Segmentation - Downer's operations are divided into three main segments: Transport, Utilities, and Facilities, with the Transport division contributing just over 50% of total revenue, Utilities around 20%, and Facilities approximately 30% [2] Industry Performance - The S&P/ASX 200 Industrials Index has returned 8.5% over the last 5 years, matching the ASX 200 return, suggesting a favorable environment for industrials sector investments [3] - Companies in the industrials sector, including Downer, often have strong and reliable revenue streams due to long-term government contracts and essential services [4][5] Revenue Growth and Stability - Downer EDI Ltd has experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -1.6% in revenue over the past 3 years, indicating some challenges in revenue growth [6] - The company currently offers a dividend yield of 2.34%, with an average of 3.7% over the last 5 years, making it an attractive option for income-seeking investors [7] Economic Correlation - Investment in industrial companies like Downer is closely tied to economic growth, as revenue is linked to government infrastructure spending and population growth [8] Valuation Insights - The current dividend yield of Downer EDI Ltd is around 2.34%, which is below its 5-year average of 3.74%, suggesting that shares may be undervalued [9] - The decline in last year's dividend compared to the 3-year average indicates a potential downward trend in dividend payments [10]

Summary of China Yangtze Power Co. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Yangtze Power Co. (CYPC) - **Industry**: Utilities, specifically hydropower generation - **Market Cap**: Rmb687,312 million - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Price Target**: Rmb34.79, representing a 24% upside from the current price of Rmb28.09 as of August 29, 2025 Key Financial Highlights - **1H25 Net Profit**: Rmb13.06 billion, up 14.9% year-over-year (yoy), exceeding preliminary results by 0.6% [2][6] - **1H25 Revenue**: Rmb36.7 billion, up 5.3% yoy, slightly above preliminary results by 0.3% [2][6] - **Power Generation**: Increased by 5.0% yoy, aligning with revenue growth, indicating stable average power tariffs [2] - **Finance Costs**: Decreased by 14.0% yoy to Rmb4.9 billion in 1H25, contributing to profit growth [2][6] - **Investment Income**: Rmb2.6 billion, down 10.5% yoy [2] - **Capital Expenditures (Capex)**: Rose significantly by 74.3% yoy to Rmb6.2 billion in 1H25 [2] Quarterly Performance - **2Q25 Net Profit**: Rmb7.9 billion, up 6.4% yoy [3] - **2Q25 Revenue**: Rmb19.7 billion, up 2.6% yoy [3] - **Finance Costs in 2Q25**: Fell by 14.9% yoy to Rmb2.38 billion [3] Operational Insights - **Power Generation in 2Q25**: Totaled 69 billion kWh, with Three Gorges' generation down 12.4% and hydro resources down 18.5% yoy [6] - **Hydropower Generation Growth**: 1.6% yoy increase noted in 2Q25 [6] Valuation and Risks - **Valuation Methodology**: Based on discounted cash flow (DCF) with a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 6.7% and no terminal growth assumption [7] - **Upside Risks**: Include better-than-expected hydropower resources, dividend payout ratios, utilization hours, and renewable energy capacity expansion [8] - **Downside Risks**: Include weaker hydropower resources, lower dividend payout ratios, and lower renewable energy capacity expansion [9] Future Projections - **EPS Estimates**: Expected to grow from Rmb1.33 in FY24 to Rmb1.66 in FY27 [4] - **Revenue Growth**: Projected to increase from Rmb84.49 billion in FY24 to Rmb94.40 billion in FY27 [4] - **EBITDA Growth**: Expected to rise from Rmb64.18 billion in FY24 to Rmb72.56 billion in FY27 [4] Conclusion - CYPC demonstrates robust earnings growth driven by increased power generation and reduced finance costs, with a positive outlook supported by strategic capital investments and stable revenue growth. The company is well-positioned within the utilities sector, particularly in hydropower, with a favorable risk-reward profile for investors.

Summary of Wuxi Apptec Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Wuxi Apptec - **Sector**: Healthcare Technology & Distribution - **Description**: Wuxi Apptec is a leading platform providing services across the pharmaceutical development cycle for small molecule drugs, including drug discovery, manufacturing, testing services for medical devices, and R&D for precision medicine. The company operates 29 sites globally, including in China, the US, and the EU [10][11]. Key Financial Performance - **1H25 Revenue**: Total revenue reached RMB 20.8 billion, representing a 20.6% YoY increase, with continuing operations growing by 24.2% YoY [2][3]. - **Backlog Growth**: The total backlog increased by 37.2% YoY to RMB 56.69 billion, indicating strong future revenue potential [2][22]. - **Net Profit**: Attributable net profit was RMB 8.3 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of RMB 7.0 billion [2]. - **Adjusted Non-IFRS Net Profit**: This figure was RMB 6.3 billion, reflecting a 44.4% YoY growth, surpassing the full-year expectation of 13.8% [2][3]. - **Revenue by Region**: US revenue grew by 38.4% YoY, while Europe and China saw increases of 9.2% and a decline of 5.2%, respectively [2][20]. Operational Efficiency - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: Improved to 43.8% in 1H25, up by 4.9 percentage points YoY [3]. - **Operating Efficiency**: The ratio of selling/admin/R&D expenses to total revenue improved, with selling expenses at 1.8%, admin at 5.7%, and R&D at 2.5% [3]. - **Full-Year Guidance**: The company raised its guidance for continuing operations and total revenue growth from 10-15% to 13-17% YoY, projecting total revenue of RMB 42.5-43.5 billion for FY25 [3]. Investment Rationale - **Buy Rating**: The company maintains a Buy rating due to robust backlog growth, strong US revenue performance, and its position as a leader in the CXO sector amidst geopolitical tensions [1][11]. - **Market Position**: Wuxi Apptec is viewed as a proxy for the China innovative drug sector, benefiting from a re-rating of market multiples [11]. - **Funding Environment**: There are positive signals in the overseas biotech funding market, which is expected to support Wuxi Apptec's growth [11]. Financial Estimates and Valuation - **Price Objective**: The price objective has been raised to HK$ 115.70 from HK$ 86.20, reflecting a 19.7x adjusted PE for 2026E [1][29]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Adjusted EPS estimates for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are RMB 4.63, RMB 5.46, and RMB 6.45, respectively, with YoY changes of 20.8%, 18.1%, and 18.1% [4][15]. - **Free Cash Flow**: Expected to grow significantly, with projections of RMB 3.18, RMB 3.93, and RMB 5.49 per share for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E [4]. Risks and Considerations - **Downside Risks**: Include strained Sino-U.S. relations, potential slowdowns in pharma/biotech investments, margin pressures from competition, and possible cuts to Medicare and Medicaid [30]. - **Upside Risks**: Faster growth in CRO/CDMO projects and higher-than-expected customer acquisition could enhance revenue [30]. Conclusion Wuxi Apptec demonstrates strong financial performance and operational efficiency, with a positive outlook supported by robust backlog growth and a favorable market position. The raised price objective and earnings estimates reflect confidence in the company's long-term growth potential.

Group 1 - Amazon.com, Inc. is currently facing challenges in its AWS cloud market and low-margin e-commerce sectors, but there is a significant transformation occurring within its data operations [1] - The company is focused on long/short equity strategies, utilizing deep fundamental analysis to identify undervalued stocks for long positions and overvalued stocks for short positions in global equity markets [1] - Detailed financial models are being built using discounted cash flow (DCF), relative valuation, and scenario analysis to assess company fundamentals, growth potential, and associated risks [1] Group 2 - The company has been delivering high-conviction investment recommendations through comprehensive research, which drives alpha generation for the fund [1] - Market trends, sector dynamics, and macroeconomic factors are continuously monitored to adjust strategies and optimize portfolio performance in real time [1] - Collaboration with the Portfolio Manager is essential for sizing positions, managing risk exposure, and navigating challenges such as short squeezes or market volatility [1]

Group 1 - The company is positioned for high future growth, with a target price of $7.08, indicating a potential return of over 10% from the current price [1] - Future growth will be driven by the sale of enterprise products [1] - The analysis follows a triangulation approach involving valuation by multiples, discounted cash flow (DCF), and dividend yield [1] Group 2 - The focus is on the Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples sectors, prioritizing companies with smaller capitalization and low institutional coverage [1] - The investment philosophy combines income and value investing strategies, emphasizing a margin of safety in multiples and projected cash flow [1] - Dividend yield is considered a fundamental component for generating returns and mitigating risks, especially in low coverage stocks [1] Group 3 - The analysis is based on a bottom-up approach, concentrating on operational fundamentals, execution history, and sustainable growth drivers [1] - Suggestions involving options may be included when they align with the main thesis and offer an asymmetric advantage [1] - The goal is to produce in-depth, rational, data-driven analyses to support informed investment decisions [1]

Group 1 - The AI landscape is evolving from basic single-model applications to complex multi-agent systems that resemble human organizational structures [1] - Companies are increasingly utilizing multiple AI systems rather than relying on a single AI to perform all tasks [1] Group 2 - The focus is on long/short equity strategies, emphasizing deep fundamental analysis to identify undervalued stocks for long positions and overvalued stocks for short positions in global equity markets [1] - Detailed financial models are constructed using discounted cash flow (DCF), relative valuation, and scenario analysis to assess company fundamentals, growth potential, and risks [1] - High-conviction investment recommendations are delivered through comprehensive research, contributing to alpha generation for the fund [1] - Market trends, sector dynamics, and macroeconomic factors are monitored to adjust strategies and optimize portfolio performance in real time [1] - Collaboration with the Portfolio Manager is essential for sizing positions, managing risk exposure, and addressing challenges such as short squeezes or market volatility [1]