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高盛:中国_二季度 GDP 略超预期;2025 年全年 GDP 增长预测顺势调整至 4.7%
Goldman Sachs· 2025-07-16 00:55
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on China's GDP growth, with full-year real GDP growth forecasts raised to 4.7% for 2025 and 3.9% for 2026, reflecting a slight adjustment from previous estimates [21]. Core Insights - China's Q2 GDP growth was reported at 5.2% year-on-year, slightly above market consensus, driven by strong industrial production but tempered by weak fixed asset investment and retail sales [20][6]. - Industrial production saw a significant increase of 6.8% year-on-year in June, attributed to faster export growth following the US-China trade truce, particularly in the chemical and computer manufacturing sectors [13][7]. - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 2.8% year-to-date year-on-year in June, with notable declines in property investment, reflecting ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [8][14]. - Retail sales growth decreased to 4.8% year-on-year in June, below market expectations, influenced by an earlier online shopping festival and funding shortages in consumer programs [15][8]. - The services industry output index showed a year-on-year growth of 6.0% in June, indicating resilience in the services sector despite a slight moderation from May [17][9]. Summary by Sections Economic Performance - Q2 GDP rose 1.1% quarter-over-quarter non-annualized, with year-on-year growth moderating to 5.2% from 5.4% in Q1, slightly above the consensus of 5.1% [10][20]. - The nominal GDP growth declined to 3.9% in Q2 from 4.6% in Q1, indicating a negative GDP deflator [12]. Industrial Production - Industrial production growth increased to 6.8% year-on-year in June, up from 5.8% in May, with a sequential estimate of 0.9% month-on-month non-annualized growth [13][7]. Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment growth was reported at 2.8% year-to-date year-on-year in June, with a single-month estimate of 0.8% year-on-year, reflecting a slowdown from 3.7% in May [8][14]. Retail Sales - Retail sales growth fell to 4.8% year-on-year in June from 6.4% in May, with declines across various categories including online and offline goods sales [15][8]. Services Sector - The services industry output index grew by 6.0% year-on-year in June, showing a slight decrease from 6.2% in May, with a sequential growth estimate of 0.2% month-on-month non-annualized [17][9]. Property Market - Property-related activity remained weak, with sales volume down 5.4% year-on-year in June, and new home starts declining by 9.5% year-on-year [18][11].
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-07-01 09:06
Market Regulation - China's top leadership aims to curb aggressive price competition among businesses [1] - The goal is to accelerate efforts toward a unified national market [1] Economic Impact - The unified national market is intended to help boost domestic demand [1]
高盛:中国 5 月零售销售强劲,工业生产和投资走弱
Goldman Sachs· 2025-06-17 06:17
Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed investment outlook for the industry, with industrial production rated at 0, fixed asset investment at -1, and retail sales at +2 [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that China's industrial production and fixed asset investment missed market expectations, while retail sales showed significant growth, indicating a divergence in economic performance across sectors [1][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of government policy in stimulating domestic demand, particularly through consumer goods trade-in programs, amidst ongoing deflationary pressures and a prolonged downturn in the property market [1][17]. Summary by Sections Industrial Production - Industrial production (IP) growth moderated to 5.8% year-on-year in May from 6.1% in April, primarily due to slowing export growth linked to increased US tariffs [8][11]. - Sequentially, IP is estimated to have contracted by 0.1% month-on-month non-annualized in May [8]. - Key sectors such as electrical machinery and chemical manufacturing experienced slower output growth, overshadowing gains in automobile production [8][11]. Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth slowed to 2.9% year-on-year in May from 3.6% in April, driven mainly by declines in infrastructure and property investments [10][11]. - Manufacturing investment growth remained robust at 7.8% year-on-year in May, contrasting with the overall slowdown in FAI [10]. Retail Sales - Retail sales growth surged to 6.4% year-on-year in May, significantly above market consensus, driven by strong sales in home appliances and communication equipment [11][12]. - The growth in online and offline goods sales improved, with notable increases in restaurant sales revenue as well [11]. - The report cautions that the recent retail sales improvement may not be sustainable due to potential payback effects and funding shortages in consumer goods trade-in programs [1][11]. Property Market - Property-related activity remained weak, with property sales declining by 3.3% year-on-year in volume and 5.9% in value terms in May [13]. - New home starts and completions also showed significant year-on-year declines, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [13]. Labor Market - The nationwide unemployment rate edged down to 5.0% in May from 5.1% in April, reflecting seasonal patterns, while the unemployment rate for migrant workers increased slightly [14][17]. - Youth unemployment rates showed some moderation but are expected to rise amid the upcoming college graduation season [14][17].