Tesla has reported global quarterly deliveries up 7% ahead of the expiry of a US tax credit applying to purchases of EVs. Overall deliveries of Tesla cars for the quarter ended 30 September were 497,099 units (462,890 units, Q3: 2024), an increase of 7.4% on last year. Tesla doesn’t break out sales by world region, but with Europe and China sales for the company weak this year, the gain will have likely been based on strong US sales over the period. Sales of EVs in the US have been sluggish through the c ...

Breaking: Tesla sold a record number of cars last quarter as buyers rushed to take advantage of an expiring EV tax credit https://t.co/vNvu1G4b7z ...

Joining us now is Gene Monster, managing partner, Deep Water Asset Management. Gan, why would this be good news. >> Brian, uh before that, I just want to acknowledge that there is a near-term benefit undoubtedly from the tax credit.If we zero in on the numbers we're going to see tomorrow, this 400 and call it 75 80,000 deliveries, about 40,000 of those are likely coming from pull forward in demand because people want to make buy a car that's 15% less expensive. And so, uh, start there is that cheaper cars d ...

For anyone who’s planning on buying an electric vehicle in the near future, we’ve got some good news and some bad news to share. Let’s start with the bad news: the federal EV tax credit — which offered $7,500 to those who purchased a new EV and $4,000 to those who purchased a used model — expired on September 30, 2025. These tax credits were originally set to expire by the end of 2032, but President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill dramatically shortened that timeline [1]. Must Read This subsequently led ...

The federal electric vehicle (EV) tax credit expires at midnight, ending a 17-year policy pillar that helped close the price gap with gasoline vehicles and turbocharged adoption; the immediate fallout is likely softer demand, leaner EV production, and a strategic pivot by legacy automakers toward hybrids and profitable ICE (internal combustion engine) nameplates, while stopgap leasing workarounds cushion some of the blow. The end of the subsidy is a structural shock already rippling upstream: Battery make ...

Industry Overview - The Zacks Domestic Auto industry encompasses companies involved in designing, manufacturing, and retailing various types of vehicles, including passenger cars, trucks, and electric vehicles [3] - The industry is highly consumer cyclic and is undergoing significant transformation due to technological advancements and rapid digitization [3] Key Themes Shaping the Industry - New vehicle sales remained strong in August, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate exceeding 16 million, but rising vehicle prices and tariffs may slow momentum as affordability weakens [4] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut may not significantly alleviate high auto loan costs, with meaningful relief not expected until 2026 or later [5] - Electric vehicle sales surged to a record 146,332 units in August, driven by the impending expiration of the $7,500 EV tax credit, but demand may sharply decline once the incentives are removed [6] Industry Performance - The Zacks Automotive – Domestic industry currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 147, placing it in the bottom 40% of approximately 250 Zacks industries, indicating a negative earnings outlook [7][8] - Despite the overall weakness, the Domestic Auto industry has outperformed the Zacks S&P 500 composite and sector over the past year, gaining 31% compared to 24% for the sector and 18% for the S&P 500 [10] Current Valuation - The industry is trading at an EV/EBITDA ratio of 45.27X, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 18.34X and the sector's 22.83X, reflecting the debt-laden nature of automotive companies [13] Company Highlights Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) - Blue Bird is a leader in low- and zero-emission school buses, with over 20,000 vehicles in operation and a strong demand for its products [17] - The company delivered a record 271 electric buses in the last quarter and raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $205-$215 million, indicating a margin of approximately 14.5% [18] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BLBD's fiscal 2025 and 2026 sales implies year-over-year growth of 8% each, with bottom-line estimates suggesting improvements of 17% and 3% respectively [19] Xos, Inc. (XOS) - Xos specializes in fully electric, zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty trucks, with a growing customer base including major operators like UPS and FedEx [23] - The company reported a 50% year-over-year increase in deliveries, with revenues climbing 18.7% to $18.4 million, and generated positive free cash flow of $4.6 million [24] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for XOS's 2025 and 2026 sales implies year-over-year growth of 3% and 25.5% respectively, with bottom-line estimates suggesting improvements of 46% and 27% [25]

Core Insights - Tesla urges American consumers to purchase vehicles now due to limited supply and the impending removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit by the end of the quarter [1][2] - The company reported second-quarter revenue of $22.5 billion, marking its sharpest quarterly revenue decline in at least the last 10 years, with earnings per share at 40 cents, below Wall Street's estimate of 42 cents [9][10] - Tesla's stock fell over 4% after hours on the earnings report and is down 17.6% year-to-date [11] Supply and Demand - Limited vehicle supply in the U.S. is expected this quarter, prompting the CFO to recommend placing orders immediately [2] - The removal of the EV tax credit is seen as beneficial for smaller competitors like Lucid and Rivian, who are less reliant on such incentives [2] Financial Performance - Tesla delivered over 384,000 vehicles in the quarter ending in June [3] - The company is experiencing a "weird transition period" as it adjusts to the expiration of incentives and the regulatory environment for autonomous vehicles [8] Cost Pressures - The CFO indicated that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have raised costs by approximately $300 million this quarter [9] - Tesla is beginning to reduce planned incentives as vehicle sales increase, including perks like free supercharging and discounts for certain groups [3]

Core Viewpoint - The "Big Beautiful Bill" supported by President Trump and Congress is expected to negatively impact Tesla by increasing costs for consumers purchasing electric vehicles and reducing credits for EV companies [1][3]. Group 1: Analyst Downgrade - William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer downgraded Tesla stock from "Outperform" to "Market Perform" without providing a price target [2]. - Dorsheimer believes the recent bill could be too challenging for Tesla stock to recover from [3]. Group 2: Impact of the Bill - The removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit for consumers is anticipated to reduce demand for Tesla vehicles, while the elimination of corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) fines was unexpected and necessitates a reset [3][4]. - Dorsheimer noted that Tesla earned $2.8 billion from selling regulatory credits in 2024, which constituted 16% of its total gross profit, and the loss of these credits could significantly affect profitability [4]. Group 3: Revenue and Demand Concerns - It is estimated that 75% of Tesla's regulatory credit revenue is tied to CAFE standards, which will be eliminated by 2027 [5]. - The combination of weakened demand and reduced profits from regulatory credits may create substantial challenges for Tesla, particularly in the fourth quarter [5]. Group 4: Investor Sentiment and Stock Performance - Dorsheimer indicated that investors may be growing weary of distractions from CEO Elon Musk, especially when the business requires his focus [6]. - Tesla stock is currently trading at an enterprise value of 76 times its lowered 2026 EBITDA estimates, reflecting investor concerns [6]. - As of the latest trading session, Tesla stock increased by 1.3% to $297.81, but it has declined by 20.4% year-to-date in 2025 [7].

Core Viewpoint - Tesla shares are experiencing significant pressure following a downgrade by William Blair, with the stock price dropping below $300 in pre-market trading, indicating investor concerns about demand and profitability due to recent policy changes [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Tesla shares closed at $315.35 but fell 6.5% in pre-market trading, reaching around $294 [1]. - The downgrade has led to a sharp decline in stock price, reflecting market reactions to the news [4]. Group 2: Analyst Downgrade - William Blair downgraded Tesla's rating from 'Outperform' to 'Market Perform' due to anticipated demand issues following the removal of the $7,500 U.S. EV tax credit and the elimination of corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) fines [4][6]. - Analyst Jed Dorsheimer highlighted that the loss of the EV tax credit could negatively impact demand, but the more pressing concern is the potential loss of over $2 billion in profit from regulatory credits, which would directly affect Tesla's profitability [5][6]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment is further strained by CEO Elon Musk's political ambitions, which have raised concerns about his focus on Tesla during a critical period for the company [7][8]. - Dan Ives, a long-time Tesla analyst, noted that investors are feeling a "sense of exhaustion" regarding Musk's political involvement, which contrasts with their expectations for his focus on the company [8][9].

EV Tax Credit Impact - The removal of the EV tax credit is a significant factor, with the current iteration ending on September 30th [2][3] - A pre-buy of vehicles is anticipated before the September 30th deadline, potentially followed by a demand fall-off [3][4] - Leasing penetration on EVs is high (north of 50% or 60%) due to attractive leasing deals related to the EV tax credit [5] Tesla's Fundamentals and Future - Tesla's fundamentals, while seemingly not currently impactful on the stock price, will eventually matter [7] - Tesla deliveries are expected to show sales lagging, with a likely significant decline in volume this year [7][8] - The new low-cost model, initially expected in the first half of the year, has not been released [8] - Weaker near-term business could impact funding for next-generation efforts like AV and Optimus robots [9] Market Perception - There is a perception of Model 3 deals being attractive, with mentions of 2.99% or 3.49% monthly rates [6] - Regulatory overhang regarding robo taxi remains a factor for the stock [7]