Group 1 - The price level of $5002.31 is critical; a sustained move above this level indicates buyer presence and potential for a breakout towards $5143.89, while a breakdown below suggests a need for stronger support [1] - Long-term bullish fundamentals for gold remain intact, with China continuing to buy gold for the 15th consecutive month, providing underlying support despite geopolitical uncertainties [2] - Improved risk appetite for global equities may limit gains in gold, with traders focusing on the S&P 500 Index and upcoming U.S. economic reports for market direction [3] Group 2 - The upcoming Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports are crucial for determining Federal Reserve policy and potential rate cuts, which could significantly impact gold prices [4] - Gold traders anticipate the NFP report to show an addition of 70,000 jobs in January; steady or better numbers could lead to a decline in gold prices, while a significant miss could trigger a rally [4]

Group 1: Stock Performances - Hecla Mining Company (NYSE:HL) gained 29.31% this week amid rising precious metal stocks due to geopolitical tensions and a weakening US dollar, with expectations of a Fed rate cut [1] - First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG) increased by 26.57% this week, following the trend in precious metal stocks [1] - Venture Global, Inc. (NYSE:VG) jumped 21.6% this week after the ICC issued a final arbitration award in favor of the company against Repsol [2] - Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) rose 17.44% this week due to positive results from a five-year follow-up of a Phase 2b melanoma vaccine trial [2] - New Gold Inc. (AMEX:NGD) gained 24.03% this week, supported by a recommendation from Glass Lewis for shareholders to vote in favor of a merger with Coeur Mining Inc. [3] - Coeur Mining, Inc. increased by 23.13% this week, also benefiting from the merger news with New Gold [3] - United Microelectronics Corporation (NYSE:UMC) jumped 13.82% this week, reflecting positive market sentiment [3] - Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) rose 13.21% this week after an analyst initiated coverage with an Outperform rating [4] - Korea Electric Power Corporation (NYSE:KEP) gained 15.29% this week, contributing to the overall positive performance in the sector [4] Group 2: Company Guidance and Production - Iamgold Corporation (NYSE:IAG) produced 765,900 ounces of gold in 2025 and provided guidance for 2026, targeting production between 720,000 to 820,000 ounces [4]

Market Overview - The U.S. equity indexes closed in the red, with the Dow down by 0.80%, S&P 500 down by 0.19%, and Nasdaq down by 0.10% [2][3] - The Russell 2000 index experienced a slight decline of 0.06% after initially gaining during the day [2] Inflation and Federal Reserve Speculation - The market's downturn was influenced by the December inflation report, which led to speculation about a potential Federal Reserve rate cut [2][3] - Despite the inflation report being tame, it was not sufficient to maintain positive momentum in the markets [2] Sector Performance - The technology and financial sectors were notably affected, with software companies, credit servicers, and banks experiencing significant declines [3] - The Dow lost 400 points, marking a second consecutive day of decline [3] Investor Positioning Ahead of Supreme Court Decision - Investors appeared to be positioning themselves ahead of a Supreme Court decision regarding tariffs, with expectations that the court would side with businesses affected by these tariffs [4] - A ruling against the tariffs could lead to volatility in the markets, as it may require refunds to affected businesses and could prompt new legal challenges [5] Market Sentiment - As of midday, 53.8% of issues were down, while 43.5% were advancing, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [6] - The Russell 2000 was the only index showing a slight gain, attributed to hopes that the inflation reading might accelerate the timing of the Fed's next rate cut [7]

Market Overview - Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have experienced significant outflows, losing $1.3 billion of their $1.5 billion worth of inflows since the beginning of the year, primarily during a four-day losing streak [1] - Over the last week, $454 million worth of assets have exited crypto exchange-traded products [1] Bitcoin Sentiment - Bitcoin faced the most negative sentiment, with $405 million in outflows last week, while short-Bitcoin funds saw $9.2 million in outflows, indicating mixed market signals [2] - Bitcoin's recent trading price was $91,722, reflecting a 1% gain in the past day [2] Federal Reserve Influence - The shift in market sentiment is attributed to lower expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in March, with a 95% chance that rates will remain unchanged at the next FOMC meeting on January 27-28 [3] - A week prior, futures data suggested a 44% chance of a rate cut in March, which has now decreased to 26.2% [4] Altcoin Performance - Despite the outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum, altcoin products have seen positive inflows, with XRP, Solana, and Sui attracting $45.8 million, $32.8 million, and $7.6 million respectively [5][6] - At the time of reporting, XRP and Sui had each lost just under 1% in the past day, trading at $2.07 and $1.80, while Solana gained 2.2%, trading around $142 [6]

Company and Industry Insights - Nvidia and AMD are expected to generate significant attention at CES, with Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang likely to discuss the company's AI strategy, focusing on datacenters, physical AI, and robotics, along with updates on the Cosmos foundation model and autonomous technology for 2026 [3][4] - AMD's CEO Lisa Su will deliver the opening keynote at CES, where she is anticipated to announce major updates to the Ryzen CPU line and showcase developments in AI PCs, gaming, datacenters, and automotive computing [5] - Versant Media Group is set to begin trading following its spinoff from Comcast, positioning itself as a hybrid cable-digital media company with a focus on expanding beyond traditional media [7][8] - The U.S. government plans to invest in Venezuela's oil infrastructure, which has the world's largest proven crude reserves of over 303 billion barrels, indicating potential opportunities for U.S. oil majors [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that those who are optimistic about the labor market in 2026 are ignoring significant signs of a decline in the labor market, as highlighted by David Rosenberg [1] Group 1: Labor Market Analysis - David Rosenberg points out that there are clear indicators of a labor market in sharp decline, contradicting the optimistic outlook for 2026 [1] - The article suggests that the current labor market trends may not support the positive projections being made for the future [1]

Market Overview - Silver prices exceeded $72 an ounce, while platinum surged past $2,350, and gold hovered near $4,500 an ounce, indicating a strong performance in the precious metals market [1][4] - The precious metals complex is gaining due to escalating tensions in Venezuela, fears of further US Federal Reserve rate cuts, and a lack of confidence in the dollar [1][3] Oil and Venezuela - The US announced a blockade on sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, risking around 600,000 barrels a day of oil exports, primarily to China [2] Price Movements - Platinum saw a price increase of about 20% this week, rising from $1,975 to over $2,350 an ounce, although it has become volatile after reaching this milestone [4] - Gold prices on COMEX were reported at $4,516 an ounce for February futures, with a significant gain of ₹4,000 in the past week [5] - Silver futures on COMEX were quoted at $72.05 an ounce, with a notable increase of over ₹18,000 per kg in the past week [6] Market Capitalization - Silver's market cap exceeded $4.070 trillion, surpassing that of Apple Inc, and is expected to soon exceed Nvidia's market cap of $4.606 trillion [7] Yearly Performance - Platinum has gained over 160% this year, silver has increased by 150%, palladium by 123%, and gold by over 71% [8] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that it may be time to book profits in silver, predicting a potential price retracement to around $68, but if bullish momentum continues, the next target could be $75 [9] - ING Think maintains a positive outlook on gold, expecting prices to reach new record highs by 2026, supported by macro tailwinds and fundamentals [10] - The outlook for silver remains constructive, driven by strong industrial demand and sustained investment flows [11]

Core Viewpoint - Mortgage rates are expected to experience a slow and uneven decline rather than a significant drop following the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, according to economists and housing forecasters Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement a quarter-point rate cut at its December 9-10 meeting, with futures markets indicating a nearly 90% probability, which would adjust the federal funds rate to approximately 3.5%–3.75% [2] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's guidance will significantly influence the direction of mortgage rates, with expectations of cautious messaging regarding future rate cuts beyond the immediate meeting [4] Group 2: Current Mortgage Rates - The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has decreased to around 6.2%, down from approximately 6.7% a year ago, reflecting a trend of falling rates since late July due to expectations of a Fed rate cut [3] - Mortgage rates typically respond to investor expectations and the 10-year Treasury yield rather than the Fed's short-term rate, suggesting that the recent decline may have already been factored into current rates [5] Group 3: Future Projections - Major forecasters, including Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research group, predict that 30-year mortgage rates will end 2025 at about 6.3% and only decrease to around 5.9% by the end of 2026, indicating a prolonged period of elevated rates [7] - Bank of America’s Aditya Bhave suggests that a mortgage rate closer to 5% is necessary to stimulate home sales, which are currently stagnant near post-2008 lows, implying that any immediate post-meeting rate drops will be minimal [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of establishing a personal investment system rather than making impulsive decisions based on market feelings. It advocates for a structured approach to entering and exiting the market, focusing on observing market trends and waiting for the right conditions to invest [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The stock market showed strong performance, influenced by expectations of a 25 basis point (BP) reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and strong buying power from funds. Interest rates are experiencing a downward trend [5]. - The overnight U.S. non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, while the unemployment rate reached a four-year high, slightly increasing the market's anticipation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January [5]. - The central bank conducted a 468 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 1,898 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1,430 billion yuan. The funding environment remains balanced and slightly loose, with stable funding rates [3][5]. Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - The weighted average rates for various repurchase agreements remained stable, with R001 at 1.34% and R007 at 1.50%. The transaction volume for R001 was 77,020.14 million yuan, reflecting a slight increase [4]. - Long-term interest rates have decreased significantly, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping to approximately 1.836% [6][9]. - The article notes that the market for short-selling long-term bonds has become crowded, indicating potential risks for those engaged in such trades [6].

Market Overview - Wall Street experienced mixed performance last week, with the S&P 500 down 0.6%, the Dow Jones up 1.1%, and the Nasdaq down approximately 1.6% [1] - Tech stocks faced significant pressure, impacting the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500, with Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) down 1.7% and State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) down 2.5% [1] Tech Sector Performance - Oracle's shares fell 14% due to revenue misses, negatively affecting related AI companies like NVIDIA and Micron [2] - Broadcom's stock dropped about 11% despite strong earnings, raising concerns over high capital expenditures and delayed AI revenue [2] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve implemented its final rate cut of the year, lowering the benchmark federal funds rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% [3] - The Fed's outlook for 2026 appears more restrained, with only one rate cut projected for next year [4] ETFs Performance - AdvisorShares MSOS Daily Leveraged ETF (MSOX) surged 94.1% due to optimism surrounding potential federal marijuana regulation changes [5] - Defiance Daily Target 2X Long RKLB ETF (RKLX) increased by 53.0%, driven by Rocket Lab Corp's 22.8% stock surge and positive developments in the space economy [6] - ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (KOLD) rose 52.7% as U.S. natural gas futures fell to a six-week low amid strong supply and mild weather [7] Sector-Specific Developments - Cannabis leveraged ETFs gained significantly on optimism regarding U.S. marijuana reclassification [9] - Space and defense-linked leveraged ETFs benefited from contracts and IPO-related excitement [9] - Voyager (VOYG) stock increased by 10.6% following a $21 million contract win from the U.S. Air Force for AI-enabled ISR systems [10] - Carvana Co. (CVNA) stock rose about 5.4% after being announced for inclusion in the S&P 500 index, reflecting strong investor interest in its scalable business model [11]