BREAKING: Inflation Data Cements Rate Cut Expectations The Federal Reserve's primary inflation rate, the core PCE price index, came in right in line with modest expectations, helping to cement expectations for an Oct. 30 rate cut. S&P 500 futures climbed modestly after three straight down days, with Intel (INTC) among the top early performers amid news that President Trump is threatening tariffs on chip imports for companies that don't meet demands for domestic production. Boeing (BA) rallied amid reports t ...

25 September final Q2 GDP was positively surprising, one of the largest upward revisions to a final figure in recent years, and showing the strongest growth in nearly two years. This article summarises recent events affecting the dollar, primarily GDP, then looks briefly at the charts of EURUSD and GBPUSD. The upward revision to last quarter’s GDP seems to be particularly positive because it comes after a quarter of contraction and because the latest revision comes primarily from consumer spending: With ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the A-share market in China, particularly in the context of investor sentiment and macroeconomic conditions leading up to the National Day Golden Week holiday [1][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Sentiment**: A-share investor sentiment remained flat, with the Weighted and Simple Morgan Stanley A-share Sentiment Indicator (MSASI) declining by 2 percentage points to 125% and 1 percentage point to 119%, respectively [2][7]. - **Trading Activity**: Average Daily Turnover (ADT) for A-shares increased by 4% to RMB 2,484 billion, while ChiNext turnover decreased by 1% to RMB 650 billion [2][4]. - **Net Inflows**: Southbound trading saw net inflows of USD 5 billion from September 18-24, with year-to-date and month-to-date net inflows reaching USD 142 billion and USD 17.2 billion, respectively [3]. - **Macroeconomic Conditions**: Domestic demand has slowed more than expected due to a fading fiscal impulse and reduced effectiveness of trade-in programs. The 3Q GDP tracking estimate is 4.5% year-on-year, down from 5.3% in the first half of the year [4][5]. - **Policy Outlook**: Anticipation of modest stimulus measures in Q4 2025, likely focused on infrastructure projects and settling local government payables [4][5]. - **Earnings Forecast**: The consensus earnings growth forecast for 2025 is just 2%, the lowest in years excluding the COVID period, indicating fragile actual earnings growth despite better earnings results [15]. Additional Important Insights - **Valuation**: China's equity market remains attractive compared to other major markets, with MSCI China trading at 13x [12]. - **US-China Relations**: The relationship appears to be stabilizing, with recent developments such as the TikTok deal providing positive signals [15]. - **Upcoming Events**: The Fourth Plenary Session could serve as a catalyst for policy changes aimed at rebalancing growth and stimulating domestic demand, although its impact may be limited due to the high-level nature of discussions [15]. - **Investor Behavior**: Investors are likely to hold more cash ahead of the extended trading break, especially following recent market rallies [4]. Conclusion - The A-share market sentiment is expected to fluctuate within a wider range due to slower macro momentum and upcoming holidays. While there are signs of stabilization and potential modest stimulus, the overall outlook remains cautious with fragile earnings growth and a need for careful monitoring of macroeconomic indicators and investor behavior [4][5][15].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is currently in a complex situation regarding interest rate cuts, with ongoing debates about the timing and extent of potential cuts, particularly in light of inflation concerns and labor market conditions [2][4][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - There is a cautious sentiment among Fed officials about frontloading rate cuts until there is clear evidence of declining inflation [2]. - The Fed is contemplating whether to implement more than two rate cuts this year, with discussions around a possible cut in December [3]. - The key question for the Fed is determining when to stop cutting rates or when to start increasing them again, depending on labor market conditions and inflation trends [4]. Group 2: Inflation Concerns - The Fed is concerned about the potential for inflation to spike if rate cuts are too aggressive, especially if labor market deterioration continues [5][6]. - The Jackson Hole speech marked a significant shift in the Fed's approach, suggesting a view of transitory inflation that needs to be validated over time [7]. - There is uncertainty about what factors could trigger persistent inflation, with current indicators from the labor and housing markets not suggesting immediate threats [8][10]. Group 3: Market Valuation Insights - The Fed Chair has indicated that stock valuations are relatively high, a sentiment that has been echoed in the Fed's financial stability reports for several quarters [11][12]. - The mention of asset price risks has gained attention, although it reflects ongoing concerns rather than new insights [13].

Market Overview - Oil prices experienced a decline after reaching seven-week highs, influenced by a surprise drop in US crude inventories and ongoing supply concerns from Iraq, Venezuela, and Russia [2][7] - Asian markets showed mixed performance, with MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan falling 0.2% after significant gains in the previous month and quarter [3][8] - Wall Street closed lower for the second consecutive session as investors took profits from record-high stocks, with futures indicating a 92% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October [4][8] Economic Indicators - Upcoming US economic data, including the Personal Consumption Expenditures report and the final estimate for Q2 GDP, is anticipated to influence market sentiment amid concerns over a potential government shutdown [4][8] - Treasury yields remained stable, with the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield flat at 4.1408% after a slight increase [4][8] Currency and Commodities - The US dollar slipped 0.1% against the yen, while the yen hit an over one-year low against the euro and an all-time low against the Swiss franc [5][8] - Spot gold prices remained flat at $3,739 per ounce, while US crude and Brent oil prices fell slightly to $64.73 and $69.11 per barrel, respectively [6][8] - Brent oil futures are expected to find support in the $65-$70 per barrel range despite forecasts of oversupply in late 2025 and early 2026 [6][8]

Group 1 - Gold prices declined as the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose to its highest level since September 11, impacting bullion priced in dollars [1][2] - Spot gold decreased by 0.7% to $3,736.16 per ounce, while silver fell after reaching over $44 per ounce earlier in the week [2] - Investors are awaiting key US inflation and jobs data, with expectations that the Fed's preferred measure of underlying inflation may have grown at a slower pace last month, which could support arguments for rate cuts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market, currently trading near all-time highs, is expected to trend higher following the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate last week, which is seen as a positive signal for the stock market [1]

Market Overview - U.S. stocks are trading flat, with the S&P 500 at 6,693.86 (+0.02%) and the Nasdaq at 22,778.64 (-0.05%) [2] - The Russell 2000 (+0.44%) and Dow (+0.32%) are performing slightly better this morning [2][4] Economic and Industry News - A significant deal between China and the U.S. for Boeing aircraft is reportedly close [5] - A Bain report indicates that AI firms may fall $800 billion short of the revenue needed to meet projected demand by 2030 [5] - Gold futures for December 2025 have surpassed $3,800, continuing their rally [5] - The OECD has raised its growth forecasts for the U.S. and global economies but warns that the impacts of tariffs have yet to be fully realized [5] - AutoZone (AZO) reported a 2% decline in sales, attributed to price increases due to tariffs [5] Earnings Reports - Nasdaq is set to release 15 earnings reports today, with six from firms having a market cap over $1 billion, including Micron Technology (MU) and AutoZone (AZO) [8] - Barnes & Noble Education (BNED) is also expected to report earnings, which may provide interesting insights [8]

All right. So, uh, now they're at 6,800 directionally. Do you agree with that.That after the Fed rate cut, there's more upside for the market in this calendar year. Uh, and does it also extend to next year. I think that's the question a lot of people are trying to figure out.I think it does. I think the the extension into next year is absolutely there. We have two major catalyst playing out right now.One is the the Fed rate cut with expectations of more to come and that should extend the economic cycle. Um, ...

Market Overview - A historic $1.7 billion was liquidated from the crypto markets in the past 24 hours due to macroeconomic factors and uncertainty, leading to an abrupt correction after weeks of upward momentum [1][2] - Major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), and Solana (SOL) experienced significant declines, with Bitcoin posting double-digit losses and Ethereum suffering around 8% drop [2] Liquidation Details - Of the total liquidations, $1.615 billion was from long positions, with Ethereum experiencing the largest losses at approximately $483 million in just 12 hours, followed by Bitcoin at $276 million [3][7] - The overall market sentiment is cautious as investors navigate through an uncertain September, which is historically the worst-performing month for crypto market returns [7] Market Conditions and Predictions - Prior to the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate cut announcement on September 17, crypto markets were bullish, but subsequent recession fears led to bearish pressure [4] - Analysts predict a potential second rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, which could influence market recovery and shift from "Redtember" to "Uptober" [4][7] - Historical data shows that ten out of twelve Octobers since 2013 have been bullish, with the last six experiencing considerable market rallies [5] Treasury and Liquidity Impact - The U.S. Treasury is working to refill its General Account to $850 billion by offloading Treasury Bills and bonds, which could impact liquidity in the stock and crypto markets [6][8] - Once the Treasury General Account is refilled, the drain on liquidity may stop, although it remains uncertain if new liquidity will enter the market as a result [8]