Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook for the equity market over a 6-12 month horizon, anticipating a recovery in earnings and favorable monetary policy shifts [5]. Core Insights - The equity markets have shown resilience since hitting lows in April 2025, with a rally driven by fundamental factors rather than speculation [5]. - Earnings revisions breadth has improved, currently at -5%, up from a trough of -25% in mid-April, supporting the rise in equity prices [5]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates seven times in 2026, which will likely provide a tailwind for equity valuations in the second half of 2025 [5]. - Historical data indicates strong equity performance during Fed cutting cycles, even if the market begins to price in these cuts ahead of time [5]. Summary by Sections Narrative - The report suggests that the current economic environment is characterized by a boom-bust cycle, with expectations for a hotter but shorter cycle ahead [11][15]. Earnings & Valuation - The S&P 500's earnings per share (EPS) targets for 2025 are projected at $259, with a potential increase to $283 in 2026 [39]. - The report highlights that the market has priced in a strong rebound, with leading economic indicators showing signs of recovery since mid-2023 [22][51]. Sector Views - Financials are rated overweight due to average relative valuation levels and potential for earnings revisions to improve [40][91]. - Industrials are also rated overweight, benefiting from domestic infrastructure initiatives and a recent bottoming in earnings revisions [105]. - Energy stocks are considered undervalued relative to oil prices, presenting an opportunity for investment [106]. Macro & Miscellaneous - The report notes that the equity risk premium remains historically low, indicating potential for equity market growth [60]. - The dispersion of returns has returned to median levels, suggesting a normalization in market behavior [78].

WHY DO I BELIEVE THAT THIS CURRENT BULL CYCLE IS A “LENGTHENING CYCLE.” ?➡️ Post-halving triggers bull runs that last 14–18 months. We are at 15 months post-halving → aligns with mid-to-late cycle phase.➡️ Spot Bitcoin ETFs brought massive billions of net inflow—with big companies massive adoption globally.➡️ The pro-crypto U.S. stance under Trump with the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve proposal (1M BTC over 5 years) signals long-term support.➡️ No retail mania yet—a key sign we haven't hit cycle peak while Bitc ...

Market Overview - The S&P 500 is approaching year-to-date highs as market focus shifts towards the potential for Federal Reserve rate cuts, moving away from macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures [1] Analyst Insights - Gary Alexander, with extensive experience in technology companies and startups, has been a contributor to Seeking Alpha since 2017, providing insights on industry themes [1]

We're looking at a market that seems to be pricing in more and more Fed rate cuts. We're thinking about maybe three pricing in two, of course, thinking about maybe we'll get to pricing in three and that's pushing futures higher a bit here in Europe and also in the United States. At how will the market deal with some sort of shadow Fed chair situation.Is that what we're looking at here. Well, first of all, we're already seeing the impact in terms of a softer dollar. We're seeing slightly softer yields.I don' ...

Opening Bid anchor Brian Sozzi breaks down the stocks to watch and the latest financial news to unleash the power of your portfolio for June 25, 2025. S&P 500 is within striking distance of a record high. We look at stocks to watch and what could drive markets higher. HPE CEO Antonio Neri speaks with Brian about AI and the partnership with Nvidia to expand AI factories and offerings. He also discusses the DOJ suing to block the $14 billion Juniper acquisition. Nvidia stock surges to its highest level since ...

据人民日报，当地时间6月10日，商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢在伦敦谈到中美经贸磋商机制首次会议时表示，中美双方进行了专业、理性、深 入、坦诚的沟通。双方原则上就落实两国元首6月5日通话共识以及日内瓦会谈共识达成了框架。外贸环境依然难言稳定，市场持续将不确定性纳入考虑当 中。 数据方面，美国5月CPI同比增2.4%，核心CPI环比增0.1%、连续第四个月低于预期；美国5月PPI与核心PPI均环比温和增长0.1%、低于预期，核心PPI增速创 近一年新低，美联储年内两次降息预期升温。5月美国PPI整体涨幅依然温和，关税尚未对消费者和企业造成更高的价格压力。然而美国企业的利润率持续承 压，表明企业正在自行消化关税成本。交易员加大对美联储降息的押注，基本预计今年将降息两次，9月份前降息的可能性为75%。美国宏观经济数据对美 元表现产生明显影响，铜价也因此受到金融属性干扰。 全球交易所库存情况来看：截至6月16日，LME铜库存较6月9日减少12850吨至10.76万吨，前期为关税政策而提前配置的铜库存已经悉数耗尽，LME市场库 存偏紧格局正在形成当中；上期所铜库存减少5461吨至10.19万吨，目前国内精炼铜显性 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report emphasizes the delayed impact of tariffs on US economic data, with inflation expected to peak by Q3 2025 and growth data lagging behind [6][14] - The strategists anticipate a convergence of US growth towards global growth, particularly European growth, which will influence interest rates and currency exchanges [5][11] - The expectation is for US treasury yields to remain range-bound until Q4 2025, with potential for lower yields if growth and inflation data align with forecasts [5][12] Economic Outlook - The report outlines forecasts for US Real GDP growth, indicating modest growth rates ranging from 0.1% to 0.7% on a quarterly basis from 2023 to 2026 [7] - Core PCE inflation is projected to peak in mid-2025, with a significant lag in data response to tariff impacts [6][14] - Emerging markets are expected to experience adjustments due to changes in US economic policy, with cautious outlooks on returns tracking US Treasuries rather than outperforming [11] Central Bank Policies - The report discusses the Federal Reserve's anticipated policy path, suggesting that while the Fed may hold rates steady in 2025, other central banks have more room to ease due to slowing growth and inflation [12][13] - The Bank of Japan faces challenges from tariffs and currency appreciation, with expectations for an extended pause in rate hikes despite resilient inflation [10] Market Volatility - The report notes significant market volatility in April 2025 due to unexpected tariff levels, leading to a shift in equity/rates correlations as markets adjusted to new economic policies [4] - The strategists highlight that the current pause in dollar weakness is temporary, with expectations for renewed dollar strength as the Fed's path becomes clearer [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the market with a base case index target for MXCN at 67 by the end of 2025, with a preference for sectors such as Energy, IT, and Utilities [36][38]. Core Insights - The report indicates a recovery in the MXCN index, driven by sectors like IT and Healthcare, with expectations of a market reversal by late January 2025 [9][11]. - The report highlights a cautious approach towards Consumer Discretionary and Staples, recommending a rotation into quality laggards and large caps over small and mid-caps [36][38]. - The anticipated GDP growth for China in 2025 is projected at 4.1%, slightly below the consensus of 4.2% [10]. Market & Sector Performance - MXCN sectors performance shows Consumer Discretionary up by 3.2% week-on-week, while Information Technology leads with an 8.3% increase [6]. - The MSCI China index has shown a year-to-date increase of 9.0%, with a notable recovery in sectors impacted by US tariffs [7][12]. Catalyst Calendar - The report outlines key upcoming macroeconomic indicators and sector-specific data releases, including PMIs and housing transactions, which could influence market movements [14]. Consensus Macro Forecasts - The consensus forecasts for China's GDP growth in 2025 are 5.1% for Q1, declining to 3.9% by Q4, indicating a gradual slowdown [16]. Index Targets - The MSCI-China index target for 2025 is set at 71, with a bull case of 80 and a bear case of 70, reflecting a potential upside of 13% from current levels [18]. - The CSI-300 index target for 2025 is projected at 3,787, with a bull case of 4,150, indicating a 10% upside potential [19]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends overweight positions in Energy, IT, and Utilities, while advising underweight positions in Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Staples [39]. - A barbell strategy is suggested, focusing on high-yielders and selected thematic plays in Internet and AI sectors [36][38]. Trading Statistics - Recent trading statistics indicate a net outflow of US$796 million from China equities, primarily driven by passive fund outflows, although there has been a positive development with resumed offshore ETF inflows [79][80].