Market Overview - The U.S. stock market closed mixed on December 5th, 2025, with investors reacting to new inflation data and a significant corporate acquisition while anticipating the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [1] - Major indexes showed resilience, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.3% to 6870 points, the Nasdaq Composite up 0.4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by approximately 100 points or 0.3% [2] Economic Data - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.9% year-over-year as of September, aligning with expectations, while core inflation increased by 2.8%, slightly below forecasts [3] - Initial jobless claims fell to 191,000, the lowest since September 2022, indicating a tightening labor market [4] - The University of Michigan consumer sentiment report showed improvement for the first time in five months, with moderating inflation expectations [4] Corporate News - Netflix announced plans to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery for approximately $83 billion, leading to a mixed market reaction; Netflix shares fell over 2%, while Warner Bros. Discovery's stock surged more than 5% [5] - Ulta Beauty's stock jumped 11% after reporting stronger-than-expected earnings and raising its full-year forecast [6] - Victoria's Secret & Co. saw a 14.4% increase in stock price following a smaller-than-expected loss and an upward revision of its sales outlook [6] - Hewlett Packard Enterprise's stock dropped 3.9% after quarterly revenue fell short of analyst expectations [6] Technology Sector Performance - Broadcom rose over 2%, and Meta Platforms advanced 1% due to cost-cutting reports, while other major tech companies like Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Tesla saw marginal gains [7] - Nvidia and Apple experienced slight declines of less than 1% [7] Upcoming Earnings Reports - Several companies, including Freight Technologies, NovaBridge Biosciences, and Oracle, are expected to release earnings reports soon, which will provide further insights into corporate performance and market trends [9]

Global Markets Strategy November 24th, 2025 Global Macro Outlook and Strategy Global Rates, Commodities, Currencies and Emerging Markets Luis Oganes AC (44-20) 7742-1420 luis.oganes@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures. {[{B01v-d4joWPbpSPNcwGh7enRDcx_XYd872O4Uor3Vcsp4l33-sDPjK3f0Kx6YvaA0ymmNbAAwvGb8H0v}]} Overall summary US Rates Recent Fed speak has turned more cautious on further easing, and following the Septemb ...

The price of Bitcoin jumped above $90,000 per coin again Wednesday after a rough two weeks that led many crypto investors and analysts to point to the start of a bear market. Bitcoin hit as high as nearly $90,334 Wednesday afternoon before dropping. It was most recently priced at $90,035, according to CoinGecko, after jumping by more than 3% over a 24-hour period. The biggest digital coin had struggled and plunged with other assets in November, at one point late last week dipping to nearly $81,000 per coi ...

Economic Overview - The recent government shutdown has created a significant data gap, complicating economic assessments and Federal Reserve decisions [1][2][10][11] - The return of government workers is expected to lead to a flood of economic data, which is crucial for market and policy analysis [2][12] Employment - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly jobs report is a key indicator of the labor market and household earnings, essential for forecasting economic activity [3] - The August jobs report indicated job gains fell to 22,000, missing the consensus of 75,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since 2021 [6] - The labor market's stability is under scrutiny, especially with rising unemployment risks highlighted by the Federal Reserve [6] Inflation - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a critical measure of price stability, with the latest report showing a year-over-year increase of 3.0%, driven by energy costs, while Core CPI also cooled to 3.0% [4][7] - The Federal Reserve's ability to make informed decisions is hindered by the lack of recent CPI data, particularly as inflation pressures may be easing [7][10] Retail Sales - Retail sales data is vital as consumer spending accounts for approximately 70% of the economy, with retail sales representing nearly one-third of that [5] - August retail sales exceeded expectations, rising 0.6% month-over-month, indicating underlying consumer momentum despite concerns over rising credit card debt and dwindling savings [7] Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - GDP is a key quarterly indicator of economic activity, with the second quarter showing a real GDP increase at an annual rate of 3.8%, surpassing the forecast of 3.3% [8][14] - The upcoming third-quarter GDP estimate will provide insights into economic momentum prior to the shutdown [14] Private Data Insights - Despite the shutdown, private data collection continued, suggesting a weak economic forecast, which may impact the interpretation of upcoming reports [9] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's recent decisions have been made without complete data, leading to a reactionary stance rather than a proactive approach [10][12] - The delay in data reporting increases the risk of policy errors as the Fed navigates a complex economic landscape [12]

Traders Pare Bets on December Fed Cut - Bloomberg Surveillance https://t.co/HpQma0nuC3 ...

Market Outlook - Market analysts are divided on the future of the market cycle, with some predicting an extension through 2027 and others forecasting a bear market in 2026 due to historical patterns [1] - Bulls believe that loosening Federal Reserve policies and upcoming liquidity injections will support continued growth, while bears reference historical downturn precedents [1] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by 0.25% on October 29 and announced a halt to balance sheet reduction effective December 1 [2] - These actions have influenced market reactions, including a 2.55% drop in Bitcoin to approximately $110,764 following the announcement [2] Bullish Perspectives - Analyst Lark Davis argues that the macro environment has shifted positively compared to 2022, suggesting that investors expecting a similar crash are misjudging the current situation [3] - Davis also noted that the Treasury General Account held $939.58 billion as of November 4, which could re-enter the market once the government shutdown is resolved [4] - Analyst Michaël van de Poppe predicts Bitcoin could reach $1.2 million after a bull run extending two more years, contrasting with current expectations of around $115,000 [7] - PlanB suggests that the market top could occur in 2026, 2027, or 2028, emphasizing the absence of typical bull market indicators and noting that the period around halvings has historically been profitable [8] Bearish Perspectives - Analyst Benjamin Cowen warns that Bitcoin closing below its 50-week moving average could confirm a cycle top, projecting a bear market in 2026 [5] - Trader Doctor Profit describes the current downturn as the beginning of a bear market, with Bitcoin targets between $54,000 and $60,000 by September or October 2026 [5] - The CNN Fear & Greed Index indicates extreme fear at a level of 21, reflecting market sentiment [6] Market Activity - On November 5, markets experienced $1.73 billion in crypto liquidations within a 24-hour period, with long positions accounting for $1.32 billion of the total [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is navigating economic challenges with a focus on labor market conditions and inflation data, despite criticisms of its policy approach [1][2][11]. Inflation and Economic Data - Current inflation rates are reported at 3% year-over-year, with core CPI also at 3%, indicating persistent inflation concerns [4][10]. - Grocery prices have increased by 3.2% over the past year, reflecting ongoing public concern about inflation [5]. - The Federal Reserve anticipates inflation will decrease, with forecasts suggesting a return to target levels [10][12]. Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve is considering cutting policy rates in December, based on data indicating that inflation will eventually decline [11][12]. - There is a belief that tariffs have a minor and temporary effect on inflation, and the Fed should focus on broader economic indicators [3][6][9]. Economic Growth Projections - The Federal Reserve's long-term growth forecast is set at 1.8%, which some analysts argue is overly conservative given current economic policies [13][14]. - There is optimism regarding potential productivity gains from technological advancements, although immediate impacts may not be seen [15][16]. Regulatory Environment - Deregulation is viewed as a means to lower capital costs and stimulate economic growth, paralleling the effects of interest rate cuts [21][22]. - The Federal Reserve staff considers the impact of deregulation and tax incentives when estimating potential GDP growth [20][21].

Core Inflation Insights - Core inflation remains at 3%, with some components coming in lower than expected [1][2] - The inflation rate excluding tariffs is estimated to be around 2.3% to 2.4%, which is close to the 2% target [5][6] Goods and Services Inflation - Goods prices are increasing due to tariffs, contrasting with a long-term trend of mild deflation in goods [3][5] - Housing services inflation is decreasing and is expected to continue this trend, which is a positive sign [3][4] - Non-housing services inflation has been stable but does not provide significant signals about economic tightness [4][9] Labor Market and Economic Policy - The labor market is not perceived as overly tight, which reduces the risk of persistent inflation [7][10] - Current monetary policy is described as modestly restrictive, contributing to a gradually cooling economy and labor market [10][11] Future Inflation Expectations - There is a commitment to return inflation to the 2% target, with market surveys indicating credibility in this commitment [11]

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market has experienced a decline of 1.12% in the past 24 hours, with cautious sentiment prevailing as investors await the Federal Reserve's policy decision [1] Market Sentiment - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is approximately $3.81 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $171.86 billion. The current market sentiment is neutral at 50, reflecting caution among investors [9] Federal Reserve Concerns - Investor concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's policy have led to reduced investments ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting [1] Solana ETF Performance - Despite a significant inflow of $69.5 million into Bitwise's SOL ETF, the price of SOL has decreased by 3% [2] Leverage Reduction - There has been a 17.5% decrease in open positions in derivatives, indicating a reduction in speculative activity. In the last 24 hours, 140,317 individuals were liquidated, totaling $523 million, with long positions suffering the most at $365 million [3] Major Cryptocurrency Performance - Bitcoin (BTC): Price around $113,135, down 0.51% in 24 hours. Key resistance at $113,600 and support between $111,700 and $111,400 [5] - Ethereum (ETH): Price around $4,034, down 1.06% in 24 hours. Key resistance at $4,040 and support at $3,915 [6] - BNB: Price around $1,110, down 1.35% in 24 hours. The price has shown signs of weakness after a previous rally [7] - Solana (SOL): Price around $195, down 1.78% in 24 hours. Key support at $197 [8] Top Gainers and Losers - Top 3 Gainers: 1. MDT: Price $0.02428, up 37% 2. SHELL: Price $0.1230, up 19% 3. FLM: Price $0.0233, up 16% [11] - Top 3 Losers: 1. KDA: Price $0.045, down 28% 2. OG: Price $10.54, down 25% 3. FUN: Price $0.00328, down 21% [11]

Economic Overview - The economy is experiencing significant growth, with rising incomes and small business confidence at its highest level in over a decade [1] - Confidence levels among small businesses reflect a positive outlook, indicating a strong belief in the economy's performance over the past ten years [1] Price Trends - Gasoline prices have decreased significantly, contributing to overall economic relief [1] - Grocery prices are also down, which may enhance consumer spending power [1] - Energy prices have seen a decline, further supporting economic stability [1] - Mortgage rates have dropped, potentially making home ownership more accessible [1] Federal Reserve Context - There is a notable situation with the Federal Reserve, indicating potential changes in leadership soon [2]