Investment Rating - The report suggests a modest impact on corporate earnings and cash flows from the budget reconciliation bill, estimating a boost of around 5% for the S&P 500 in the next year [1][2]. Core Insights - The budget reconciliation bill is expected to have only a modest effect on the US fiscal balance and corporate earnings, with potential earnings boosts diminishing in subsequent years [1][2]. - The ECB is anticipated to cut rates by 25 basis points, with growth forecasts remaining unchanged at 0.9% for this year and a slight decline for next year [11]. - The report highlights the potential for renewed interest in European equities due to the Section 899 provision of the reconciliation bill, which may create uncertainty for US investments [2][5]. Fiscal Policy Focus - The budget reconciliation bill is projected to have limited effects on migration and economic activity, particularly for high-earning households [5]. - Fiscal policy in China is expected to support growth, with an estimated boost of 1.1 percentage points to real GDP growth this year [6]. ECB Projections - The ECB's growth forecast for this year is expected to remain at 0.9%, with a slight decline in next year's forecast [11]. - Inflation projections are likely to be downgraded, with headline and core inflation expected to decline to 1.7% and 1.8% respectively for next year [11]. US Jobs Report - The report estimates a below-consensus increase of 110,000 in nonfarm payrolls for May, with an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.2% [16]. - Average hourly earnings are forecasted to increase by 0.3% month-over-month [16]. Steel and Aluminum Tariffs - The doubling of US steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% is expected to negatively impact US steel demand from the manufacturing sector [16]. - There is a potential risk of tariffs being imposed on copper imports, which is currently underpriced in the market [16].