Core Insights - The current downturn in the crypto market is characterized by significant volatility, with historical patterns indicating multiple drawdowns of 30% to 50% during bull periods [2][12] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a major factor influencing the crypto market, with a strong correlation between crypto prices and global liquidity [5][11] - Recent market activity has seen a rotation into higher quality assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, while altcoins have experienced more severe declines [12][14] Market Dynamics - The crypto market is experiencing a liquidity shock, which is expected to resolve in a few months, similar to past events [20][22] - A significant deleveraging event occurred on October 10, resulting in approximately $19 billion in liquidations, leading to a rebalancing of portfolios [14][17] - The market is currently witnessing heightened volumes and volatility, particularly during holiday periods, which historically contribute to price movements [6][7] Investor Sentiment - Investors are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's upcoming announcements, with an 87% chance of a rate cut in December being priced in [9][10] - The market is attempting to derisk ahead of the December meeting, with expectations for a gradual easing path from the Fed [11][21] - The current selloff has seen Ethereum, Solana, and XRP down more than 9%, while Bitcoin is down over 7% [23]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is experiencing a pullback after falling below the $90,000 level, but Standard Chartered suggests that the recent sell-off may have reached its conclusion [1][2] Group 1: Market Analysis - Standard Chartered's Head of Digital Asset Research indicated that the recent pullback is a rapid version of previous corrections seen in the last couple of years [2] - Multiple on-chain metrics, including MicroStrategy's mNAV, have hit absolute lows, with mNAV currently at 1.0 [2][3] - The realized loss margin for Bitcoin stands at -16%, which is below the historically significant threshold of -12% associated with potential rebounds [3] Group 2: Technical Indicators - The SuperTrend indicator on the weekly chart has recently switched to sell mode, which historically has led to average declines of 61% [4] - Applying this average decline to the current market structure suggests a potential move towards $40,000 for Bitcoin [5] Group 3: Macro Context - Despite a $7 trillion increase in global M2 money supply since late 2024, Bitcoin has not fully capitalized on this liquidity surge due to capital being absorbed by government debt and short-term instruments yielding 4-5% [7] - The presence of risk-free alternatives with tangible returns has increased the opportunity cost for speculative assets like Bitcoin, contributing to volatile trading patterns [8]

Market Cycle Analysis - The crypto market has historically followed the business cycle, potentially extending into 2026, suggesting a prolonged bull market [2] - Macro analysts suggest the crypto market cycle is no longer solely based on Bitcoin halving but correlates with the economic cycle, particularly the ISM Manufacturing Index [6][7] - The ISM, an indicator of economic activity, has historically correlated with Bitcoin's cycle tops and bottoms, but this pattern has recently broken [9][10] - An extended debt refinancing cycle, with average debt maturity increasing to approximately 54 years due to the pandemic, may be extending the liquidity and crypto cycles [12] Liquidity and Economic Indicators - Some analysts argue that economic indicators like the ISM are misleading and have unclear correlation with global liquidity [16] - Global liquidity, measured by Global M2, has risen, but Bitcoin's price has flatlined, weakening the correlation between the two [18] - Central bank policies and debt refinancing challenges could lead to a contraction in global liquidity, potentially impacting the crypto market [20][21] - Economic data may be deceptive due to factors like inflation and unemployment rates, making the economy appear stronger than it is [26][27] Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - The crypto market is expected to continue a gradual upward trend, mirroring the overall economy [40] - Assuming a recession is avoided, Q4 2025 is projected to be bullish, with Bitcoin potentially reaching its cycle top, followed by Ethereum and altcoins approximately one month later [47][48] - The current crypto market cycle differs from previous cycles due to less loose monetary policy, more mature regulatory frameworks, and different patterns of retail participation [44][45] - AI-related ventures have significantly contributed to economic growth, particularly in the US, impacting sectors like chip manufacturing and infrastructure [36][37]

Market Overview - The market has transitioned from merely observing interest rates to a full liquidity regime, where central bank balance sheets and cross-border capital flows are the primary drivers of risk rather than the Federal Reserve's rate adjustments [1] - Central bank buying, de-dollarization flows, and institutional portfolio hedging are the main forces driving gold prices higher, indicating a shift beyond traditional inflation-hedge frameworks [2] Predictions and Trends - Prediction markets indicate a steady but shallow easing cycle from the Fed, favoring gold and digital assets over high-beta risks, with a 76% chance of three rate cuts in 2025 totaling 75 basis points [3] - Kalshi traders assign a 51% probability that Bitcoin will break $130,000 this year, with lower probabilities for $140,000 and $150,000 [4] Market Positioning - The market is preparing for a slow-burn rally rather than a speculative surge, as easing expectations gradually influence real yields and dollar liquidity [5] - On-chain signals suggest a liquidity-fed advance rather than an adrenaline-driven bull market, indicating potential for continued asset appreciation without aggressive Fed intervention [6] Current Market Movement - Bitcoin is trading above $110,500, down 2%, influenced by U.S.–China trade tensions and global risk concerns, with analysts warning that breaching the $110,000 support could lead to a drop towards $96,500–$100,000 [7] - Ethereum is trading around $3,900, down about 4%, as investors reduce exposure amid macro uncertainty, although some remain optimistic about its potential to "catch up" to gold over time [7]

$ETH will follow global liquidity! https://t.co/ZfxGp7BxvG ...

The Global Liquidity cycle isn't completed.We're heading higher! https://t.co/ipZw12JRP6 ...

Market Sentiment and Analysis - The crypto market is currently experiencing uncertainty, with concerns about a potential alt season, market topping, or the start of a bear market [1][2][3] - The market is showing signs of capitulation, with fear levels approaching extreme levels, which historically can indicate a market bottom [6][7][8] - Many altcoins are in oversold territory, aligning with the high fear levels in the market [9][10] - XRP is showing relative strength compared to Ethereum, but could still see further price declines [3][4][10] - The market has been selling off for approximately 72 days, leading to time and price action capitulation [11][12] Cycle Analysis and Future Outlook - The analysis suggests the four-year crypto cycle may be extending to a five-year cycle, with a potential peak in early 2026 [13][19][20] - This aligns with the liquidity cycle, which is expected to peak around the first quarter of 2026 [16][17][29] - The market has changed significantly with institutional adoption, regulations, and the potential for altcoin ETFs [30][31][39] - Despite these changes, a bear market is still anticipated, likely marking the last typical cycle before utility becomes the primary driver [36] - The Federal Reserve's expected rate cuts and increasing adoption are expected to drive further market expansion [35][38]

New all time highs for the Global Liquidity.Bullish for Bitcoin! https://t.co/AXxK4hu4Xr ...

New all time highs for the Global Liquidity.Bitcoin will follow! https://t.co/MAy0wsjkFU ...

Market Trends - Some are calling the end of the bull market, but global liquidity sits at all-time high [1] - Nasdaq seeks tokenized stocks [2] Cryptocurrency & Blockchain - Hyperliquid USDH bidding war is ongoing [1][2] - Justin Sun's $100 million+ in WLFI frozen [1] - MegaETH stablecoin is being developed [2] - Ronin and Upbeat join OP Stack L2 [2] Regulatory & Legal - Gary Gensler's suspicious deleted texts are under scrutiny [1][2] - Senate Clarity Act is being discussed [2] Company Specific - Robinhood joins S&P 500 [2] - Robinhood social features are being implemented [2]