Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has experienced a significant decline of 45% from its all-time high of $126,000, currently trading at $70,000, with predictions of a potential drop to $50,000 [1] Group 1: Investment Strategies - Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is recommended as an effective strategy for investing in Bitcoin during its price decline, suggesting an investment of $50 each month over 10 months [5][6] - This DCA strategy helps mitigate emotional reactions to market volatility, allowing for a more disciplined investment approach [7] - An alternative strategy involves investing the full $500 upfront while exploring hedging options to manage the inherent volatility of Bitcoin [8] Group 2: Hedging Options - Investors can hedge their Bitcoin positions by purchasing prediction market event contracts, which allow them to speculate on Bitcoin's future price points [8][9] - These contracts are available on platforms like Robinhood, with specific price points such as $60,000, $50,000, and $40,000 for potential profit if Bitcoin falls to these levels by 2026 [9][10] - The hedging strategy provides a safety net, as investors can still benefit if Bitcoin's price does not rise as anticipated [10]

Core Insights - IPC has accelerated its drilling schedule at Blackrod, raising its 2025 capital guidance to $340 million from $320 million, with drilling expected to continue into 2026 [1] - The company reported substantial spending of $228 million on growth capital at Blackrod Phase 1 in 2025, bringing cumulative spending to $820 million, with first oil expected in Q3 2026 [2] - IPC achieved first steam delivery at Blackrod ahead of schedule, around a quarter earlier than initially planned, and highlighted production support activities at other fields [3] Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - Total capital expenditure for 2025, including decommissioning, was $344 million, aligning with IPC's guidance of $340 million, resulting in a free cash flow of -$153 million for the year [9] - Operating cash flow was reported at $63 million in Q4 and approximately $259–$260 million for the full year, with a full-year average Brent price of $69 [8] - The company ended 2025 with net debt of $484 million, reflecting heavy spending at Blackrod and share buybacks, with net debt increasing by around $280 million over the year [10] Production and Operating Costs - IPC reported average production of 45.6 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q4 and 44.9 thousand BOE per day for the full year, near the top end of its guidance range [5] - Operating costs were stable, with Q4 costs at $18.40 per BOE and full-year costs at $17.80 per BOE, slightly below the guidance range of $18–$19 per BOE [4] Pricing and Hedging - Average benchmark prices for 2025 were $69 for Brent and $65 for WTI, with a WTI/WCS differential averaging -$11, supporting profitability [13] - Hedging contributed positively to IPC's financial results in 2025, generating gains on WTI, Brent, and gas hedges, while incurring losses on differential protection and some FX hedges [15] Shareholder Returns - IPC completed its 2024–2025 NCIB by repurchasing 7.7 million shares, reducing shares outstanding by approximately 6.5%, with a total of 77 million shares repurchased since inception [16] Safety and Environmental Performance - The company reported no material health, safety, or environmental incidents in 2025, highlighting strong safety performance at Blackrod [17]

Core Insights - Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a significant decline, dropping to nearly $60,000, which affected the broader crypto market and led to the loss of value for some trading funds [1] - The decline was attributed to macroeconomic factors and the actions of market makers, who play a crucial role in maintaining liquidity in trading [1][2] Market Dynamics - Market makers continuously post buy and sell orders, ensuring liquidity and smooth trading without significant price fluctuations [2] - They hedge their exposure to price volatility through buying and selling actual assets or related derivatives, which can sometimes exacerbate price movements [3] Options Market Influence - Between February 4 and February 7, Bitcoin's price fell from $77,000 to nearly $60,000, influenced by the options market where market makers were "short gamma" [3][4] - The presence of approximately $1.5 billion in negative options gamma between $75,000 and $60,000 contributed to the acceleration of Bitcoin's decline [5] Hedging Mechanism - Negative gamma indicates that options dealers must hedge in the same direction as the underlying price movement, leading to increased selling pressure as Bitcoin's price fell [6]

Core Insights - Aurubis reported a challenging quarter with net cash flow at -€8 million, a significant drop from +€178 million in the same quarter last year, primarily due to working capital effects at record-high metal prices [1][6] - The company raised its full-year guidance for operating EBT to €375–475 million and EBITDA to €655–755 million, reflecting stronger metal prices and resilient demand for copper products [5][17] Financial Performance - Revenue for the quarter was €5.3 billion, up 25% year-over-year, driven by higher precious metal revenues as metal prices rose [3][7] - Operating EBIT was €101 million, and operating EBT was €105 million, which is 19% lower than the prior-year quarter's €130 million, attributed to higher personnel expenses and increased depreciation [2][4] - EBITDA decreased to €164 million from €184 million last year, reflecting anticipated higher costs across the group [2] Cash Flow and Working Capital - Free cash flow before dividends was -€103 million compared to €39 million a year ago, with inventories increasing by €495 million and receivables up by €176 million [1][6] - The company experienced a €110 million non-cash effect related to valuation changes for financial instruments used for forward sales [7] Operational Highlights - Concentrate throughput rose 5% year-over-year to 630,000 tons, supported by good operational performance, while copper scrap and blister copper output fell by 5% [9] - Cathode production was stable at 285,000 tons, with sulfuric acid output increasing by 5% to 583,000 tons [11] Market Conditions - European spot copper premiums remained stable at a high level, while sulfuric acid prices increased due to strong demand, particularly from overseas markets [14] - Spot TC/RCs for copper concentrates remained low, reflecting a tight concentrate market [15] Strategic Projects and Future Outlook - The company is targeting break-even on an EBITDA level for the Richmond project this fiscal year, although EBT is expected to remain negative [19] - Management reported that around €1.4 billion, approximately 80% of the approved strategic investment volume, had been invested by December 31 [19] Hedging and Currency Position - Aurubis is hedged approximately 60% for copper and 70% for gold and silver for the current fiscal year [20] - The company maintains a long U.S. dollar position of around $530 million for the fiscal year, with 54% hedged at 1.125 [20]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. dollar has reached a four-year low, influenced by various factors including expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts, tariff-related uncertainties, and concerns regarding Fed independence, which have collectively diminished investor confidence in the U.S. macroeconomic outlook [1]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has decreased by 1.94% over the past month and 10.74% over the past year, with an all-time decline of 19.81% [2]. Interest Rate Expectations - Anticipations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 are contributing to the dollar's decline, as lower rates make the dollar less appealing to foreign investors [3][4]. Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions and renewed tariff frictions have heightened market volatility, leading to a decrease in investor appetite for U.S. assets and a rotation of capital away from the United States, which further pressures the dollar [5][6]. Capital Flows - A significant outflow of capital from U.S. equity funds was noted, with investors withdrawing a net $5.26 billion in the week ending January 21, indicating reduced demand for the dollar [7]. Investment Strategies - In light of the weakening dollar, portfolio diversification and hedging are becoming increasingly important for investors. Funds such as the WisdomTree Emerging Currency Strategy Fund (CEW) provide exposure to various emerging currencies and have seen a positive performance, gaining 1.24% over the past month and 13.94% over the past year [9][10]. Precious Metals - The weakening dollar has led to increased interest in precious metals, with commodity funds attracting a net inflow of $1.96 billion in the week ending January 21, marking a trend of net purchases over 10 out of the last 11 weeks [12]. Emerging Market Opportunities - The decline of the dollar is also driving interest in global equity funds, particularly emerging market ETFs, which may offer higher returns for investors willing to take on additional risk [14][15].

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of hedging in managing financial risks and maintaining liquidity in the market [1][2] - It highlights the current prices of certain assets, with BB at $5.00 and BR at $5.20, indicating a slight price difference that may affect trading strategies [1][2] - The focus is on the strategies companies can employ to safeguard their reserves and mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations [1][2]

Core Insights - East West Bancorp reported a record-breaking year in 2025, achieving new highs in revenue, net interest income, fees, non-interest income, earnings per share, loans, and deposits, with expectations for continued growth in 2026 despite economic uncertainties [5][4][7] Lending and Deposit Growth - End-of-period loans grew by 6% year over year, with average loans increasing by 4%, primarily driven by commercial and industrial (C&I) growth, which is expected to continue leading lending growth into 2026 [1][7] - The bank's deposit growth was prioritized through a business checking campaign, resulting in a 6% year-over-year increase in end-of-period deposits, with non-interest-bearing deposits and time deposits showing traction [2][7] Dividend and Shareholder Metrics - The board approved a quarterly dividend increase of $0.20 to $0.80 per share, representing a 33% increase, payable on February 17 to stockholders of record on February 2 [3][4] Financial Performance and Projections - The bank's core deposit growth supported loan growth and improved liquidity, with management guiding for loan growth of 5-7% in 2026, led by C&I and residential mortgages, alongside net interest income growth of 5-7% [2][11][7] - Fourth-quarter net interest income was reported at $658 million, benefiting from balance sheet growth and favorable deposit mix shifts, with a reduction in deposit costs [9][10] Fee Income and Expense Management - Fee income grew by 12% in 2025, driven by strong performance in wealth management, derivatives, foreign exchange, and lending fees, with aspirations to grow fee income faster than balance sheet growth in 2026 [12][13] - Total operating non-interest expense rose by 7.5% in 2025, with expectations for a 7-9% increase in 2026 due to headcount additions and IT-related expenditures [13] Asset Quality and Capital Position - The bank maintained strong asset quality, with net charge-offs of 8 basis points in Q4 and a provision for credit losses of $30 million, while projecting net charge-offs of 20-30 basis points for 2026 [6][15] - Regulatory capital ratios remain robust, with a Common Equity Tier 1 ratio of 15.1%, supporting the bank's client service model and resilience amid potential volatility [16] Hedging and Securities Strategy - Cash hedge headwinds narrowed significantly, with expectations for hedges to become tailwinds in 2026 as rate cuts continue, and a shift towards fixed-rate purchases in securities based on relative value [17]

Some lenders have asked India’s central bank to step in to curb a sharp rise in hedging costs, according to people familiar with the matter https://t.co/8N4uPDL5ZG ...

Regulatory Focus - CFTCpham 发表关于 IOSCO 预对冲报告的声明 [1]

Brazilian traders are increasingly hedging against a drop in the real after former President Jair Bolsonaro backed his son in next year’s election, instead of supporting investors’ favorite Tarcisio de Freitas. https://t.co/1Au35zLF0K ...