WITH WAR FIGHTERS THIS. YEAR WE'RE REALLY MOVING INTO THIS MODE OF REALLY PRODUCING. ED: FOR GIVE ME.WE HAVE BREAKING NEWS. PRESIDENT TRUMP IS SAYING HE WAS DUE TO MEET CHINA'S PRESIDENT XI IN TWO WEEKS' TIME. HE NOW SAYS HE SEES NO REASON TO DO SO.THE TEAM IS GOING TO PUT HEADLINES UP ON THE SCREEN. A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF NEWS BECAUSE PART OF WHAT WE WANTED TO DISCUSS TODAY WAS CHINA. THE PRESIDENT SAYING THAT HE'S CALCULATING INCREASED TARIFFS ON CHINESE PRODUCTS.AND BEAR WITH US. WE ARE SEEING THIS QUITE ...

Core Insights - The U.S. government is investing $35.6 million in Trilogy Metals to secure a 10% stake, aimed at advancing the domestic cobalt supply chain and critical energy projects in Alaska [2][3][8] - The investment is part of a broader strategy by the Trump administration to counter China's dominance in the critical minerals sector, with previous investments in other companies like Lithium Americas Corp. and MP Materials Corp. [8] Company Overview - Trilogy Metals, a microcap mining company with a market cap of $343 million, focuses on strategic minerals including cobalt, copper, and gallium [2][9] - The company has mining claims in remote areas of Alaska and is involved in a joint venture with South32 Ltd. [7] Project Details - The Ambler Road project, which was previously rejected under the Biden administration, aims to connect a mining district rich in critical minerals [3][5] - The planned 211-mile (340-kilometer) road will facilitate access to significant mineral deposits and is expected to be environmentally sensitive [5][8] Market Reaction - Following the announcement of the U.S. investment, Trilogy Metals' shares surged over 150% in after-market trading [9] - Notable investor John Paulson holds an 8.7% stake in Trilogy through his investment fund [9]

Core Insights - The U.S. government's recent equity stake in Intel represents a significant shift in industrial policy, moving towards risk-sharing ownership rather than conditional subsidies [2][3] - Nvidia's $5 billion investment in Intel validates the company's strategic importance in the semiconductor industry and signals a new era of alliance capitalism [5][10] Government and Industry Collaboration - The U.S. government's stake in Intel serves as a signal that the company is too strategic to fail, enhancing customer confidence and reducing counterparty risk [3][4] - Nvidia's investment not only provides financial backing but also reinforces Intel's role in the future of computing, changing the narrative from a struggling firm to a key player in a strategic alliance [4][8] Nvidia's Strategic Considerations - Nvidia's investment diversifies its architecture risks and secures custom CPUs from Intel, which is crucial for its competitive positioning [6] - The collaboration allows Nvidia to expand its ecosystem by integrating Intel's CPU capabilities with its GPU dominance, positioning itself as a leader in AI infrastructure [7][9] Intel's Enhanced Credibility - The combination of government backing and Nvidia's investment restores Intel's credibility, potentially leading to a "confidence cascade" where other contracts follow [8][12] - Intel is repositioning itself as a platform partner rather than a standalone champion, adapting to the decoupling of chip design and manufacturing [9] New Industrial Policy Framework - The Intel-Nvidia partnership exemplifies a new industrial strategy characterized by alliance capitalism, where public and private sectors collaborate to mitigate strategic risks [10][14] - Future interventions in the semiconductor industry may follow a similar pattern, starting with state equity followed by private co-investment [11][12] Implications for the Investment Landscape - The shift from subsidies to equity stakes and strategic alliances alters the investment landscape, emphasizing the importance of de-risking strategic industries [14][15] - Companies in chokepoint positions are likely to have more opportunities for growth and partnerships, reshaping market dynamics [19]

Market Trends & Industrial Policy - Intel shares jumped 7%, potentially influenced by emerging US industrial policy affecting AMD, Nvidia, and possibly Pfizer [1] - The US government, tech community, and Intel are seemingly collaborating to create a US-based foundry capability, with Intel receiving contracts for volume [1] - Tariffs may be incentivizing companies to build in the US, potentially leading to deals where Intel is used as a manufacturer to avoid tariffs [1][2] Company Strategy & Competition - Intel faces challenges in manufacturing and needs to reach 2 nanometer production to compete with TSMC [1] - AMD's market capitalization once reached $270 billion, surpassing Intel's sub-$100 billion valuation, but Intel is catching up [1] - AMD might be considering using Intel as a foundry customer [1] Antitrust Concerns & Contractual Relationships - Nvidia may face antitrust scrutiny regarding its compute allocation practices [3] - Nvidia's contracts with hyperscalers may allow Nvidia to resell up to 50% of the capacity [4][6]

Group 1 - Intel shares increased by 7% recently, reflecting a significant rise of 40% over the past month, indicating strong investor interest and potential profitability [1] - The U.S. government's emerging industrial policy is influencing the semiconductor industry, particularly benefiting companies like Intel and AMD, as they seek to establish foundry capabilities in the U.S. [1] - Intel faces challenges in manufacturing, particularly in achieving 2 nanometer technology to compete with TSMC, and will need more customers to increase production volume [1] Group 2 - AMD's market cap previously reached $270 billion while Intel was below $100 billion, but Intel is now catching up due to external factors rather than its own advancements [1] - There is speculation that AMD may be seeking partnerships to avoid tariffs and enhance its market position, indicating a strategic shift in the industry [2] - Nvidia is facing potential antitrust scrutiny as it navigates complex contract relationships and chip allocation, which could impact its market dynamics [3][4] Group 3 - Nvidia has contracts that allow it to resell up to 50% of the capacity it allocates to large hyperscalers, raising questions about the depth of its contractual relationships [4][6] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a chip shortage, complicating the allocation process among major players like Nvidia, Tesla, and others [5] - The government may play a role in supporting Intel's growth by providing contracts that could exempt companies from tariffs, indicating a strategic alignment between government policy and corporate interests [1]

Manufacturing & Industrial Base - US technological superiority is not sufficient for winning conflicts; industrial production has a deterrence factor and mass matters [1] - The US systematically outsourced key-scaled manufacturing, eroding skill sets, and now lags in mass manufacturing at scale [1] - The US needs to address the skilled labor replacement problem in manufacturing, as many skilled workers are nearing retirement [2] - China has strategically controlled rare earths and magnet-making technology, creating supply chain bottlenecks [3] - China's manufacturing autonomy is estimated to be 20 years ahead of the US due to a lack of pressure to put software engineering automation in manufacturing [3] Defense & National Security - US war games show that the US would run out of key high-end munitions in about 8 days, which is not a deterrence factor [1] - Russia is currently outproducing NATO on 155 munitions, highlighting the need for increased production capacity [4] - The US lacks a strategic plan for preserving supply in a catastrophic situation [4] - China has invested in technologies that push back the US and cripple the US war apparatus, such as space-based sensing and carrier killer missiles [20][21] - The US military is better at infusing technology into war fighting, but faces challenges in producing enough at scale and affording it [4] Policy & Economic Strategies - The US government should create large offtake agreements to support domestic manufacturing and create a commercial market [5] - The US needs to identify key supply chain constraints and implement strategies such as stockpiling and regulatory relaxation [5] - The US should leverage its capital market system to create incentives for industries to grow, such as low-cost loans and risk-sharing with banks [5][9] - China's success is due to subsidizing capex, energy, and export subsidies, creating an uneven playing field [7] - The US should counteract unfair practices from other countries and incentivize growth through targeted policies and protectionism [13]

Growth Targets - The electronic information manufacturing industry aims for an average annual revenue growth of over 5% by 2026, factoring in sectors like lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and component manufacturing [1] - The industry targets an average growth rate of approximately 7% in the added value of scaled computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing from 2025 to 2026 [1] Industry Leadership - The electronic information manufacturing industry is expected to maintain its leading position in revenue scale and export proportion among 41 major industrial categories by 2026 [1] - Five provinces are projected to have electronic information manufacturing revenue exceeding 1 trillion RMB [1] Specific Product Goals - The server industry is projected to exceed a scale of 400 billion RMB [1] - The domestic market penetration rate of 75-inch and larger color TVs is expected to surpass 40% [1] - Personal computers and mobile phones are expected to advance towards intelligence and high-end features [1]

A look at Tokyo’s efforts to escape rare-earth dependence on China may help inform today’s newfound fans of industrial policy in Washington https://t.co/3o9cfcEfIQ ...

China’s industrial policy attracts fans abroad, critics at home https://t.co/yKXWaadLNG ...

Political & Economic Landscape - Statism is gaining traction on both the left and right political spectrums, leading to an unusual convergence of ideologies [1] - Washington is increasingly resembling Chinatown in its approach to industrial policy [1] Company & Policy - Trump's policy involves taking 10% of Intel, indicating government intervention in the company [1]